Wenger was spot on

Crashoutcassius

Full Member
Joined
Oct 10, 2013
Messages
10,295
Location
playa del carmen
A few years back, as commentary on the spiralling spending, Wenger said it would be much more common that players just run their contracts down and get the move they want, with much more lucrative agent and player contracts probably being a part of it.

We have seen this come to the fore this summer with mbappe and pogba, and clearly with Messi although a more nuanced situation.

A poster said in the pogba thread that we should pay him any wages because of the cost of replacing him... And this has a lot of truth to it.

I could see a very near future where players sign contracts with the expectation that they will run it down and move on for a huge sign on fee, in the tens of millions.

I don't think we will see players signing contracts only two years into their current deal anymore. Their leverage is weak at this stage, and can get so much stronger. The only offset is the risk of injury, which seems to reduce over time in the top leagues.

Any view on this? If this is the case, how should it change a clubs approach to the market? Does it just increase the concentration of top players and play into the inevitability of a Super League ...
 

svn

Full Member
Joined
Mar 19, 2011
Messages
217
I agree. It gives players much more power to demand ridiculous signing on fees because there's no transfer fee. Clubs will be forced to either take the loss or pay ridiculous wages.
 

Spaghetti

Mom's
Joined
Aug 15, 2012
Messages
1,463
Location
Barcelona
Looking at PSGs summer business this year gives a good indication that you and Wenger are right - Donnarumma, Ramos, Hakimi, Wijnaldum and Messi on frees. And signing Messi the day after his crocodile tears suggests to me that is wasn’t as unplanned as it may have seemed.

Barça also completed their summer business in the free market; through necessity rather than choice, but it further shows that the market is there.

Pogba should indeed be offered whatever he wants as we shouldn’t lose him on a free (again). He is arguably our best player, has a lot of value in terms of merchandise and we don’t want to be a club where players (that we want) run their contracts down.
 

kthanksbye

Full Member
Joined
Jan 25, 2014
Messages
1,503
The clubs don't really have many moves to make in this situation, they can make contracts where a player has to take a pay-cut in the last year of their contract if the player decides to run it down, but then there will always be those clubs who will not include this clause to sign a player.
Players too are putting themselves at the risk, imagine someone like Pogba doing his ACL in April, ruling him out for 6-8 months, would PSG still want him and would they still pay him that much?
Ok maybe Pogba is a wrong example because he's a marketable player, but the point still remains that players are taking a risk too.
 

2 man midfield

Last Man Standing finalist 2021/22
Joined
Sep 4, 2012
Messages
45,666
Location
?
Might just be mis-remembering but Aaron Ramsey was the first case where it seemed the wages were really over the top due to the fact the buying club didn’t need to pay a transfer fee. Am I wrong there? Why wasn’t this the case before?
 

Adisa

likes to take afvanadva wothowi doubt
Joined
Nov 28, 2014
Messages
50,309
Location
Birmingham
Paying huge transfer fees after Bosman was always ludicrous. Look at PSG and Mbappe. They're about to lose a €200m player for nothing at age 23.
 

JPRouve

can't stop thinking about balls - NOT deflategate
Scout
Joined
Jan 31, 2014
Messages
65,353
Location
France
Maybe I'm misreading the OP but the angle is in my opinion wrong. The reason behind this probable future trend is that the wealthiest clubs don't need the income from transfers, due to the massive increase in broadcasting and commercial revenues which means that clubs can ask for inflated fees even when it comes to squad players. Players and agents don't like the idea of running down a contract because it limits their income security, an injury or loss of form during the last year of your contract can see you lose dozens of millions.
 

Withnail

Full Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2019
Messages
29,329
Location
The Arena of the Unwell
I agree. It gives players much more power to demand ridiculous signing on fees because there's no transfer fee. Clubs will be forced to either take the loss or pay ridiculous wages.
Yes the players are demanding ridiculous signing on fees but the clubs have been demanding ridiculous transfer fees for quite some time.

It's a natural consequence of the financial insanity that's been going on for years. Hopefully it prompts a rethink on the financial side of things.
 

Rajiztar

Full Member
Joined
Nov 10, 2019
Messages
2,102
Supports
Chelsea
A few years back, as commentary on the spiralling spending, Wenger said it would be much more common that players just run their contracts down and get the move they want, with much more lucrative agent and player contracts probably being a part of it.

We have seen this come to the fore this summer with mbappe and pogba, and clearly with Messi although a more nuanced situation.

A poster said in the pogba thread that we should pay him any wages because of the cost of replacing him... And this has a lot of truth to it.

I could see a very near future where players sign contracts with the expectation that they will run it down and move on for a huge sign on fee, in the tens of millions.

I don't think we will see players signing contracts only two years into their current deal anymore. Their leverage is weak at this stage, and can get so much stronger. The only offset is the risk of injury, which seems to reduce over time in the top leagues.

Any view on this? If this is the case, how should it change a clubs approach to the market? Does it just increase the concentration of top players and play into the inevitability of a Super League ...
It's upto club what is good for them. If players didn't want to sign extension then plan it accordingly. Sell them and replace them without dropping quality.

If Wenger think players should be loyal how many players got extension if they had career threatening injury though they were loyal to childhood club.

It's ruthless business,players and agents came to terms with it. I don't blame players or agents.
 

Tom Cato

Godt nyttår!
Joined
Jan 3, 2019
Messages
7,565
I don't know why UEFA or FIFA don't bring in a wage cap.
We have a wage cap, it's called the FFP.

Yes I know "FFP is dead, broken bla bla" but it actually affects how clubs operate, there are more clubs in football than Manchester City and PSG.

La Liga has their own FFP regulations, it's why Leo Messi had to leave Barcelona, because the club was unable to comply with La Liga's FFP in a world with a covid budget.

As for players having power over their own careers, I'm not sure this is the problem people imagine it is. The issue with big money transfers are agent fees that have run absolutely amok.
 

padzilla

Hipster
Joined
Oct 31, 2005
Messages
3,328
Clubs should also have the courage to drop stars who are letting their contracts run down or introduce clauses like their salaries will reduce by 50 per cent if they allow the contract to enter it's final year without renewing it.
There's no way we will sign a player as good as Pogba for what we paid for him now, especially when the likes of Declan Rice are valued at 100 million quid, if clubs don't reduce their asking prices then players won't be sold on and will walk away for nothing.
I am not entirely sure this isn't part of PSG's masterplan, inflating the market to the point where nobody can afford to keep star players, and nobody can afford to buy them allowing the likes of PSG to swoop in and get them on a free while other clubs practically bankrupt themselves in the process to try and keep up.
 

youmeletsfly

New Member
Joined
Sep 29, 2018
Messages
2,528
If a wage cap was brought in, say it was £150m a year but we were spending £220m a year currently, where do you think that £70m saving would go?
This, and how to you cap a guy's wages, based on what? The wages are set by his employer and based on merit and other factors. Who the feck are Uefa/Fifa to stop you from earning more as a football player? Considering the EU law, this will be easily fought back in courts by players or even clubs.

We should all remember that, if the necessary business and sporting management of a player's contract is done, a club won't reach the situation where said player leaves on a free.
In addition, a contract is a contract, you can't force someone to extend it. If a player 100% wants to switch clubs every 4 years, he has the right to do so and also get a hefty sign on fee. It's either this or a club owner injecting the transfer fee directly into his own pocket, it's the same shit.
 

largelyworried

Full Member
Joined
Feb 10, 2021
Messages
2,101
Suspect we'll just see longer contracts. Six and seven year contracts will become the norm for more expensive players.
 

Flanders Devil

New Member
Newbie
Joined
Aug 23, 2018
Messages
449
Yes the players are demanding ridiculous signing on fees but the clubs have been demanding ridiculous transfer fees for quite some time.

It's a natural consequence of the financial insanity that's been going on for years. Hopefully it prompts a rethink on the financial side of things.
Yeah, jumping on this logic a bit..

I can see a world where this becomes a bit cyclical in that from an economics point of view, if this trend becomes the norm, then the relative impact of ‘saving’ on a transfer fee will be minimised (as there won’t be transfer fees).

Then, if that’s the case (the norm that more players leave on a free), them it could drive a recalibration of transfer fees to be much more ‘reasonable’.
 

padzilla

Hipster
Joined
Oct 31, 2005
Messages
3,328
The NFL has a successful wage cap model which has kept their leagues incredibly competitive. Look at the different Superbowl winners over the years.
I suspect there is no hunger from the elite soccer clubs to be part of something that's fair though when there's cold, hard cash to be made.
 

JPRouve

can't stop thinking about balls - NOT deflategate
Scout
Joined
Jan 31, 2014
Messages
65,353
Location
France
They’ll have to bring in rules to stop this to protect the clubs eventually. You can’t have a club paying 100 million for an asset that becomes worthless.
Depreciation is one of the most basic thing, every asset has a life expectancy. The issue is that the wealthiest clubs don't have a strong incentive in selling an asset in certain cases.
 

do.ob

Full Member
Joined
Jun 19, 2010
Messages
15,567
Location
Germany
Supports
Borussia Dortmund
I don't really see it:

Messi - last year he supposedly wanted to leave, but wasn't allowed to; this year he supposedly wanted to stay, but Barca wasn't allowed to extend
Mbappe - Real and Mbappe were supposedly eager to transfer immediately, PSG being the ones to block it
Pogba - are we seeing Pogba run down is contract, or are we seeing him trying to leave, but no one having the money for an offer that United deem acceptable
Ramos - he's at an age where two years is a long term contract and his transfer value is minimal
Agüero - see Ramos
Memphis - wanted to leave last summer, probably only waited, because no one was willing to buy him out due to Corona
 

The Firestarter

Full Member
Joined
Apr 8, 2010
Messages
28,111
They’ll have to bring in rules to stop this to protect the clubs eventually. You can’t have a club paying 100 million for an asset that becomes worthless.
That means abolishing Bosman rule which won't happen. And you can absolutely have what you describe, it's the risk of doing business.
 

JPRouve

can't stop thinking about balls - NOT deflategate
Scout
Joined
Jan 31, 2014
Messages
65,353
Location
France
The NFL has a successful wage cap model which has kept their leagues incredibly competitive. Look at the different Superbowl winners over the years.
I suspect there is no hunger from the elite soccer clubs to be part of something that's fair though when there's cold, hard cash to be made.
Their wage cap model is based on little financial security for players with largely non guaranteed contracts, exploitation of young talents with undervalued contracts and it's a relatively small closed league where franchises share revenue.
 

Red_Aaron

Full Member
Joined
Oct 30, 2005
Messages
4,303
Location
Dig up stupid!
The huge wages earnt at a very young age coupled with the improvement in medicine means that the top players don't always need the security of a long term contract now - they're super wealthy anyway and injuries rarely end careers now.

Short term contracts to the highest bidder will be the future imo, no transfer earnings for the clubs. At least for the best players anyways
 

Lynty

Full Member
Joined
Oct 21, 2014
Messages
3,094
Class act, Wenger.

Deserved to manage a much better team than that circus of a club.
 

largelyworried

Full Member
Joined
Feb 10, 2021
Messages
2,101
The huge wages earnt at a very young age coupled with the improvement in medicine means that the top players don't always need the security of a long term contract now - they're super wealthy anyway and injuries rarely end careers now.

Short term contracts to the highest bidder will be the future imo, no transfer earnings for the clubs. At least for the best players anyways
This would undermine the business model of many clubs though.
 

carvajal

Full Member
Joined
Jan 20, 2015
Messages
11,053
Location
Spain
Supports
Real Madrid
The clubs also speculate with the players, treating them as pure commodities and pretending to sell them for double or triple(Sevilla for example) or sending them on loan several times until they finally make a profit, as well as pressures to renew, sitting them on the bench or sending them to the stands.
 

TheLiverBird

Full Member
Joined
Mar 4, 2014
Messages
1,708
Yes the players are demanding ridiculous signing on fees but the clubs have been demanding ridiculous transfer fees for quite some time.

It's a natural consequence of the financial insanity that's been going on for years. Hopefully it prompts a rethink on the financial side of things.
This is exactly it for me

Its also Clubs protecting themsleves

and players protecting themsleves

and both comes with risks as a few have already mentioned

Top Players that want to leave their Clubs are being forced into running their contracts down because their Clubs aren't willing to sell unless unrealistic fees are paid, practically pricing them out of the market in a lot of cases. Yet Clubs are being forced by the player, or are under pressure, to offer much higher wages in order to for them too sign a new contract

This isn't necessarily across the board, we are talking about the top top players at a club. Its a stand off

The Mbappe situation is still unreal, I literally can't believe that situation is happening.
 

Tony247

Full Member
Joined
May 2, 2018
Messages
9,486
I think NFL system of salary cap and short term contracts is much more robust and provide level playing field to everyone. But again those are franchises, a different model with no relegation. But something similar could be worked out for European football.
 

horsechoker

The Caf's Roy Keane.
Joined
Apr 16, 2015
Messages
51,375
Location
The stable
Isn't it time to reign in exorbitant transfer fees?

Maybe I'm way off the mark here but players seem to be valued based on "if X is worth __, then Y must be worth __"

Everytime the transfer record goes up it lifts the value of other players. Most players simply aren't worth 100m pounds/euros
 

Champ

Refuses to acknowledge existence of Ukraine
Joined
Jun 17, 2017
Messages
9,888
If a wage cap was brought in, say it was £150m a year but we were spending £220m a year currently, where do you think that £70m saving would go?
In theory lower wages would mean more savings for the clubs and so things like merchandise, ticket prices would be reduced.

Either that or tranfer fees would be extorniate.

Anyhow, Wenger is only correct in this due to Covid, without Covid transfers would be ten fold what they are now in terms of quantities, and the likes of Pogba would be gone already.
 

ivaldo

Mediocre Horse Whisperer, s'up wid chew?
Joined
Nov 15, 2012
Messages
28,699
If a wage cap was brought in, say it was £150m a year but we were spending £220m a year currently, where do you think that £70m saving would go?
And if a wage cap wasn't brought in, and we were paying £150m a year in wages and that increased to £220m next year, where do you think that money would come from?
 

fergieisold

New Member
Joined
Mar 15, 2008
Messages
7,122
Location
Saddleworth (home) Manchester (work)
Depreciation is one of the most basic thing, every asset has a life expectancy. The issue is that the wealthiest clubs don't have a strong incentive in selling an asset in certain cases.
That means abolishing Bosman rule which won't happen. And you can absolutely have what you describe, it's the risk of doing business.
I guess what could happen if it becomes widespread is a balance where transfer fees come down as clubs won’t want to pay huge money for someone who might run a contract down.
 

Raees

Pythagoras in Boots
Joined
May 16, 2009
Messages
29,464
Players have almost become too expensive to buy and clubs are at a greater risk of bankruptcy these days when they go for a big talent. This hesitancy in the market means that the way to get your ideal move if you’re a big player these days is to run your contract down.

From the clubs perspective the difficulty in finding replacements because of the above leads to the vicious circle of failing to let go of a player for a fee and giving themselves more time to find an adequate replacement. I also just think it could also be bad management of resources with players becoming almost too big to sell.. directors might not want to be seen as taking the blame for sanctioning the transfer and would rather blame the player for forcing their way out.
 

macheda14

Full Member
Joined
May 22, 2009
Messages
4,614
Location
London
Looking at PSGs summer business this year gives a good indication that you and Wenger are right - Donnarumma, Ramos, Hakimi, Wijnaldum and Messi on frees. And signing Messi the day after his crocodile tears suggests to me that is wasn’t as unplanned as it may have seemed.

Barça also completed their summer business in the free market; through necessity rather than choice, but it further shows that the market is there.

Pogba should indeed be offered whatever he wants as we shouldn’t lose him on a free (again). He is arguably our best player, has a lot of value in terms of merchandise and we don’t want to be a club where players (that we want) run their contracts down.
Hakimi was sold by Inter for quite a big fee
 

teague

Full Member
Joined
Feb 7, 2005
Messages
460
Might just be mis-remembering but Aaron Ramsey was the first case where it seemed the wages were really over the top due to the fact the buying club didn’t need to pay a transfer fee. Am I wrong there? Why wasn’t this the case before?
Sol Campbell was reported to be the first £100k per week player when he moved from Spurs to Arsenal on a free back in 2001. That was double the £50k contract Roy Keane signed the year before which was the record up to then.
 

matsdf

New Member
Newbie
Joined
Dec 6, 2017
Messages
596
Does it really matter if the fees are paid as transfer fees, or as sign on fees?
 

2 man midfield

Last Man Standing finalist 2021/22
Joined
Sep 4, 2012
Messages
45,666
Location
?
Sol Campbell was reported to be the first £100k per week player when he moved from Spurs to Arsenal on a free back in 2001.
Ah ok so it has been going on for a while then. Just seemed like when Ramsey moved and his wages were reported as 400k per week everyone suddenly became aware that this is what was going on.
 

JPRouve

can't stop thinking about balls - NOT deflategate
Scout
Joined
Jan 31, 2014
Messages
65,353
Location
France
I think NFL system of salary cap and short term contracts is much more robust and provide level playing field to everyone. But again those are franchises, a different model with no relegation. But something similar could be worked out for European football.
I really want someone to seriously say how? I see it in every similar threads and people always fail to even come close to an actual response, how do you mirror the NFL. I will just highlight a few points:

- The NCAA has an exploitative system where future NFL players are developed for free and can't be legally paid even though the organization(NCAA) makes billions.
- The NFL benefits from it because they don't finance the development of these players and then get them for free through the draft.
- They get top prospects on grossly undervalued contracts.
- The NFL is a small league where owners share a large portion of total revenue equally.
- Contracts are non-guaranteed, in most cases franchises do not have to pay players fully and can cut them for a multitude of reasons.
- Players have no say in their destination outside of free agency, they can be sent anywhere without their will which is part of salary cap manipulation in american sports.
 
Last edited:

Bilbo

TeaBaggins
Joined
Sep 27, 2004
Messages
14,207
Logic would suggest that an increase in players running down contracts would lead to a reduction in transfers fees and salaries, but football will never be logical.
 

pascell

Full Member
Joined
Aug 3, 2012
Messages
14,113
Location
Sir Alex Ferguson Stand
In theory lower wages would mean more savings for the clubs and so things like merchandise, ticket prices would be reduced.

Either that or tranfer fees would be extorniate.

Anyhow, Wenger is only correct in this due to Covid, without Covid transfers would be ten fold what they are now in terms of quantities, and the likes of Pogba would be gone already.
Do you think that the Glazers would allow a reduced price on merchandise and ticket prices, or would they pocket extra money in dividends?

In an ideal world, the saving would be put towards upgrades towards OT.

And if a wage cap wasn't brought in, and we were paying £150m a year in wages and that increased to £220m next year, where do you think that money would come from?
That's not how it works buddy. No business is going to ever spend £70m extra one year than the previous whilst the income is the same amount.