People underestimate how clueless some ballon d'or journalists are. I checked the names of the ones allowed to vote a few years back, some of them aren't even football journalists, they cover all kind of sports, you're not gonna have me believe they have enough freetime to watch Top 5 league+CL+NT competitions as well as other sports such as Rugby,Cricket,Boxing and so on.
Lewandowski's Bundesliga title is worth nothing as it's pretty much a given when you play for Bayern.
If he gets it then it would be off breaking Muller's record but then again, I haven't seen that much media noise about it either.
Messi is the clear favorite, too popular, just won his first NT trophy and that made a LOT of noise.