Dusan Vlahovic / signs for Juventus

Pep's Suit said:

"Dušan Vlahović is only the 4th U-21 player in history to score 30 Serie A goals in a single year. It last happened 63 years ago."

I think he'll move to PL now in January or six months later but which club? City? Spurs?

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It's also the first time ever a U21 player has taken 9 Serie A penalties in a single year. He's had a great year and is a great talent, but he's not quite there yet when it comes to endproduct from open play.

Non-penalty output for Vlahovic 2021 (Fiorentina all comps, Serie A and Italy Cup):
32 goals (9 penalties) and 4 assists in 3664 minutes
159 minutes/non-penalty goal
136 minutes/non-penalty goal + assist

Against top teams in Italy (including penalties):
Juventus: 2 goals in 284 minutes
Inter: 1 goal in 387 minutes
Napoli: 1 goal and 1 assist in 384 minutes
4 goals (1 penalty) and 1 assist in 1055 minutes - 264 minutes/goal - 211 minutes/goal+assist against the toughest opponents in Italy

Haaland 2021 (Dortmund):
39 goals (5 penalties) and 14 assists in 3367 minutes
99 minutes/non-penalty goal
70 minutes/non-penalty goal + assist

Stats against top teams in Germany (including penalties):
Bayern: 5 goals and 1 assist in 461 minutes
Leipzig: 6 goals in 270 minutes
Leverkusen: 4 goals and 1 assist in 360 minutes
15 goals (1 penalty) and 2 assists in 1091 minutes - 73 minutes/goal - 64 minutes/goal+assist against the toughest opponents in Germany

Vlahovic plays in a worse team, but has some unique qualities and is definitely one to watch. Certainly not a guaranteed success, at least not with the pressure tbat comes with the pricetag he's now got hanging on his shoulders. I doubt he would hit the ground running or immediately elevate a top club to the next level at this stage of his career. Might get there some day though.

Bebestation said:

Is he a bulky striker like Haaland or Lukaku or is he more a striker like Greenwood, Michael Owen, Mbappe?

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Bulky. He's basically the same stature as Kane, a big target man that has good technique to go with it.

Bebestation said:

Is he a bulky striker like Haaland or Lukaku or is he more a striker like Greenwood, Michael Owen, Mbappe?

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Tall and skinny right now: 190cm/75kg (this number might be outdated though)
A little more muscle won't hurt him.

Adam-Utd said:

Bulky. He's basically the same stature as Kane, a big target man that has good technique to go with it.

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troylocker said:

Tall and skinny right now: 190cm/75kg (this number might be outdated though)
A little more muscle won't hurt him.

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If he is Bulky then he is almost definitely going to be Conte's striker.

Arsenal need a striker too but i doubt Artera can convince him over Conte.

Kane has been a dissapointment for a while now aswell.

I wonder if Lukaku is going to be happy playing like he is at Chelsea. Maybe Spurs and conte goes for his old boy and Chelsea go for this guy.

But it sounds a bit complicated.

Bebestation said:

Is he a bulky striker like Haaland or Lukaku or is he more a striker like Greenwood, Michael Owen, Mbappe?

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He’s 1,9 m tall so he’s a big guy. From the little I’ve seen he likes to hold up play more than Lukaku and Haaland who will rather look to find space to make runs in behind. So I’d say he looks more of a target man compared to those guys. More of a Kane-type striker perhaps?

Red_toad said:

Juve are skint as are Inter. You need to be a bit more up to date with finances before posting.

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Thanks Toad, my post was factually correct.
What I think you mean is my understanding of the two clubs current financial situation. But thanks for trying.

Lemon Moon said:

Thanks Toad, my post was factually correct.
What I think you mean is my understanding of the two clubs current financial situation. But thanks for trying.

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No Lemon you’re not posting facts, you’re posting uneducated stuff about Inter and Juve being able to pay 65 million Euros, which they simply cannot afford to do. Both clubs are currently struggling financially.

Red_toad said:

No Lemon you’re not posting facts, you’re posting uneducated stuff about Inter and Juve being able to pay 65 million Euros, which they simply cannot afford to do. Both clubs are currently struggling financially.

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I was just pointing out that Juve/Inter have spent similar amounts in recent years. Although I agree I didn't take into account their current financial situations.
Thanks for your input though.

Red_toad said:

No Lemon you’re not posting facts, you’re posting uneducated stuff about Inter and Juve being able to pay 65 million Euros, which they simply cannot afford to do. Both clubs are currently struggling financially.

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& it's Mr Moon to you

Pep's Suit said:

"Dušan Vlahović is only the 4th U-21 player in history to score 30 Serie A goals in a single year. It last happened 63 years ago."

I think he'll move to PL now in January or six months later but which club? City? Spurs?

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We've been heavily linked with him, the Fiorentina chairman actually name checked us & Juventus saying if someone wants him they need to talk to them, not the player first.

Then again, there is also talk he's holding out to see what other offers he gets, so he might see himself as too good for us already.

Certainly would not be surprised at all to see Conte go in for him, Kane dependant.

Lemon Moon said:

& it's Mr Moon to you

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Nah I’ll stick with lemon, it’s more you!

He looks like a great alternative for Haaland.

I think there will be a lot of top clubs that won't want to deal with Raiola and the numbers he wants for this kid and Vlahovic will be a fair option instead.

I can see him going to City, I just can't see City wanting to deal with Raiola and the baggage that comes with him.

Hopefully Murtough and Rangnick make the correct call on this. The knock on effect could be huge. The two lads look set to be among the leading strikers for the generation. Haaland is closer to the finished article but more expensive and most likely will start up about moving on about half way through his first contract. Still think Haaland has always looked like a Utd player but Mino is an absolute buzzkill. Vlahovic could definitely improve into someone who wins titles with us but could take a season or two to get going in this league. Having a clear system should make recruitment a lot less hit and miss at least.

Saw an analytics guy on Twitter compare him to Belotti in that he's a good prospect but his stats are inflated to make him look like a a prospect.
Last 2 seasons in the league:

• 53 games, 34 goals, 5 assists
• 26.87 xG and 3.64 xA
• 11 penalty goals accounting for 8.37 xG.
• 0.38 non penalty xG/90 minutes

During the same period, Haaland for example is at 0.77 non penalty xG/90.

Even just in the serie A, if you look at players with a better non penalty xG/90 and filter out everyone with fewer than 500 minutes, there are 29 players in Serie A alone this season who have a better xG rate. Essentially... he's overperforming his xG and penalties are inflating it by quite a bit. "Buyer beware". Though he is only 21 and definitely has big potential. Just a case of numbers maybe saying he is something that he isn't just yet.

bosnian_red said:

Saw an analytics guy on Twitter compare him to Belotti in that he's a good prospect but his stats are inflated to make him look like a a prospect.
Last 2 seasons in the league:

• 53 games, 34 goals, 5 assists
• 26.87 xG and 3.64 xA
• 11 penalty goals accounting for 8.37 xG.
• 0.38 non penalty xG/90 minutes

During the same period, Haaland for example is at 0.77 non penalty xG/90.

Even just in the serie A, if you look at players with a better non penalty xG/90 and filter out everyone with fewer than 500 minutes, there are 29 players in Serie A alone this season who have a better xG rate. Essentially... he's overperforming his xG and penalties are inflating it by quite a bit. "Buyer beware". Though he is only 21 and definitely has big potential. Just a case of numbers maybe saying he is something that he isn't just yet.

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So you’re saying he scored 23 non penalty goals in 53 league games. Still impressive for 21 years old…

He is not as good as people make him out to be currently. Haaland is easily a level above him.

But he is young and development isnt linear. He was almost a nobody 2 years ago. Kane wasnt a beast either at 21. If he improves like currently, he will probably be one of the best strikers around in a couple of years. Hard to say currently.

Not as good as Haaland, yet, and may never be. But then you have to decide is Haaland worth all the baggage he is going to come with, with Raiola whispering in his ear. Quite frankly after Pogba i wouldn't shed a tear if we decided to never go to a Raiola client again, guy won't ever shut his mouth and is always looking for the next big contract. Would rather go with this guy who will be cheaper and has great potential as well

The One problem I have with all these strikers are they seem to be left footed.

I'm not saying I don't want them - but Greenwood is probably our highest rated prospect and he is also arguably a left footed forward.

I feel a good right footed forward would balance our squad better- especially as players like Martial, Cavani and Ronaldo leave us in the future.

If we're still looking for a striker with Haaland seemingly ruled out, Vlahovic and Nkunku are probably the standouts. That being said, think I'd rather we just play Mason there if we aren't getting Haaland. Don't personally see Mason below the level of the others (and he's younger), just needs more game time in his best position. I will say Vlahovic is a bit more physical so if we wanted somebody better in the air he would make sense. That being said we have Ronnie so I don't really see the need.

Cassidy said:

So you’re saying he scored 23 non penalty goals in 53 league games. Still impressive for 21 years old…

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16.5 xg in 53 league games, or 0.38 non penalty xG/90. That's a bit less than what Ollie Watkins had last year for Villa, similar to Welbeck/Maupay/Benteke/Fabio Silva.

Obviously I'd say he's much better than them, he is very young and he looks like a good player when you watch him. But he's not a world class striker already like what Haaland was the second he moved to Dortmund. Vlahovic has had a hot finishing streak and a good penalty record, but those things tend to even out over time.

With Vlahovic, you want to see a lot more improvement in his actual performance levels/shots per game/quality of positions he finds himself in per game in his development as a striker. It's standard for a young player to need that improvement, but also important to note that his finishing streak/penalty record is inflating his stats... Its never a guarantee that a good prospect will turn into a top player, so you have to be cautious about treating him as a top player already. Essentially like what happened with Belotti. He had a hot season, they demanded 100m, nobody wanted to pay quite that much and then they were left with an average striker.

Bebestation said:

The One problem I have with all these strikers are they seem to be left footed.

I'm not saying I don't want them - but Greenwood is probably our highest rated prospect and he is also arguably a left footed forward.

I feel a good right footed forward would balance our squad better- especially as players like Martial, Cavani and Ronaldo leave us in the future.

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If we're playing with 2 strikers at top I dont see why playing with two left footed players would be a problem, just as playing with two right footed. If playing with just one striker then it doesnt make a difference weather its a right or left footed one.

Dazzmondo said:

If we're still looking for a striker with Haaland seemingly ruled out, Vlahovic and Nkunku are probably the standouts. That being said, think I'd rather we just play Mason there if we aren't getting Haaland. Don't personally see Mason below the level of the others (and he's younger), just needs more game time in his best position. I will say Vlahovic is a bit more physical so if we wanted somebody better in the air he would make sense. That being said we have Ronnie so I don't really see the need.

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Nkunku plays in a whole different positions, he's a CAM rather than a striker. Would love to have him here, but he'll be competing with Bruno rather than the striker spot.

Keep in mind he's really exploded in 2021. If you break down his 20/21 season you'll notice a massive difference between 2020 and 2021, in both goals scored and xG

Another thing to keep in mind is that Fiorentina aren't actually playing particularly well, especially they're not attacking well. Vlahovic is very much carrying them right now. He's also not really a good fit for how they play - they're a high pressing machine that wants to dominate the opponent and pin them into their own half, hitting them with quick transition off turnovers high up the pitch or extended periods of pressure. In their setup they ask Vlahovic to be a target man a lot, and he's quite bad at it, hence their struggles to generate chances. Vlahovic is making up for that with his combination of pace, power and skill - according to Fiorentina fans, Vlahovic scores a lot of goals that only he would score

He's an absolute terror when he can run at the defence with or without the ball, decent passer with adequate vision, very powerful and pacey, with a good touch and a great shot. Timing and movement in the box are also great. Also a great engine on him, plays like a man possessed

Questions about both his scalability on a better side as well as whether his finishing is a purple patch or something that can hold up with time. 8 npg from 5.3 xG so far, so overperforming but not by that much. His 0.34 pnxG per 90 is kind of worrying, but again it's hard to say how much of that is down to how his team attacks

giorno said:

Keep in mind he's really exploded in 2021. If you break down his 20/21 season you'll notice a massive difference between 2020 and 2021, in both goals scored and xG

Another thing to keep in mind is that Fiorentina aren't actually playing particularly well, especially they're not attacking well. Vlahovic is very much carrying them right now. He's also not really a good fit for how they play - they're a high pressing machine that wants to dominate the opponent and pin them into their own half, hitting them with quick transition off turnovers high up the pitch or extended periods of pressure. In their setup they ask Vlahovic to be a target man a lot, and he's quite bad at it, hence their struggles to generate chances. Vlahovic is making up for that with his combination of pace, power and skill - according to Fiorentina fans, Vlahovic scores a lot of goals that only he would score

He's an absolute terror when he can run at the defence with or without the ball, decent passer with adequate vision, very powerful and pacey, with a good touch and a great shot. Timing and movement in the box are also great. Also a great engine on him, plays like a man possessed

Questions about both his scalability on a better side as well as whether his finishing is a purple patch or something that can hold up with time. 8 npg from 5.3 xG so far, so overperforming but not by that much. His 0.34 pnxG per 90 is kind of worrying, but again it's hard to say how much of that is down to how his team attacks

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So that basically rules him out for us in the short-medium term then.

pcaming said:

So that basically rules him out for us in the short-medium term then.

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Pressing is not the issue. Playing direct and using him as the target man/attacking fulcrum is

bosnian_red said:

16.5 xg in 53 league games, or 0.38 non penalty xG/90. That's a bit less than what Ollie Watkins had last year for Villa, similar to Welbeck/Maupay/Benteke/Fabio Silva.

Obviously I'd say he's much better than them, he is very young and he looks like a good player when you watch him. But he's not a world class striker already like what Haaland was the second he moved to Dortmund. Vlahovic has had a hot finishing streak and a good penalty record, but those things tend to even out over time.

With Vlahovic, you want to see a lot more improvement in his actual performance levels/shots per game/quality of positions he finds himself in per game in his development as a striker. It's standard for a young player to need that improvement, but also important to note that his finishing streak/penalty record is inflating his stats... Its never a guarantee that a good prospect will turn into a top player, so you have to be cautious about treating him as a top player already. Essentially like what happened with Belotti. He had a hot season, they demanded 100m, nobody wanted to pay quite that much and then they were left with an average striker.

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He scored more than them without penalties. xG isnt just dependant on him alone but the team as a whole.

Cassidy said:

He scored more than them without penalties. xG isnt just dependant on him alone but the team as a whole.

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XG is a better predictor than actual goals for future performance. Team performance has nothing to do with it. He's getting loads of plaudits because of his goal total over the past 2 years - a goal total that is inflated because of penalties and a hot finishing run. It's a valid concern. It's a goal total that isn't likely to be repeated based on the same chances, because pretty much every non Messi footballer around tends to regress their actual output towards xG over long enough time. If you break down his actual non penalty xG ratio and find it's in the Welbeck/Maupay/Watkins level while being in a weaker league, then it's cause for concern.

giorno said:

Questions about both his scalability on a better side as well as whether his finishing is a purple patch or something that can hold up with time. 8 npg from 5.3 xG so far, so overperforming but not by that much. His 0.34 pnxG per 90 is kind of worrying, but again it's hard to say how much of that is down to how his team attacks

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I mean it's a 50% overperformance! But like you said, there are valid concerns out there that we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves with him, but he's still a good talent. It's important to distinguish the difference between a good prospect and a top player though. He's not already a top player so there's a lot more risk in there (as there always is). Footballer progression isn't linear, but the prices quoted bring an expectation that I don't think would match up to reality *just yet*.

bosnian_red said:

XG is a better predictor than actual goals for future performance. Team performance has nothing to do with it. He's getting loads of plaudits because of his goal total over the past 2 years - a goal total that is inflated because of penalties and a hot finishing run. It's a valid concern. It's a goal total that isn't likely to be repeated based on the same chances, because pretty much every non Messi footballer around tends to regress their actual output towards xG over long enough time. If you break down his actual non penalty xG ratio and find it's in the Welbeck/Maupay/Watkins level while being in a weaker league, then it's cause for concern.

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Of course team performance has something to fo with it. It directly affects the quality of chances you get in a game.

Cassidy said:

Of course team performance has something to fo with it. It directly affects the quality of chances you get in a game.

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What does team performance have to do with the difference between his xG and his goal total? Or the comparison that he has a similar non penalty xG rate to the likes of Welbeck/Maupay/Watkins/Fabio Silva? We aren't comparing him to top teams, we're comparing Fiorentina to Brighton/Villa/Wolves, except in the prem compared to in the Serie A. And quality strikers will get on the end of big chances regardless. The exact level that they reach may vary, but a xG/90 rate of 0.38 really isn't anything special, and why you shouldn't get distracted just because he has a good goal total over a short time frame.

bosnian_red said:

What does team performance have to do with the difference between his xG and his goal total? Or the comparison that he has a similar non penalty xG rate to the likes of Welbeck/Maupay/Watkins/Fabio Silva? We aren't comparing him to top teams, we're comparing Fiorentina to Brighton/Villa/Wolves, except in the prem compared to in the Serie A. And quality strikers will get on the end of big chances regardless. The exact level that they reach may vary, but a xG/90 rate of 0.38 really isn't anything special, and why you shouldn't get distracted just because he has a good goal total over a short time frame.

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If you don’t know the answer to that question, you shouldn't bother using the stat. A players non penalty xG is always going to be affected by the team they play in

Cassidy said:

If you don’t know the answer to that question, you shouldn't bother using the stat. A players non penalty xG is always going to be affected by the team they play in

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The team he plays for has absolute no bearing on the difference between a players xG and their goal total. That is 100% on the actual quality of the finish, which is purely on the player and the opposing goalkeepers with 0 bearing on anything else.

Decent penalty taker, decent left foot and he does have a vision to pass. Definitely a potential to be a great player. Being Serbian and so young, you have to be careful. A lot of talented Serbian players make very questionable decisions when it comes to partying and ladies and all goes to sh1t. The guy seems smart and very passionate, I hope head is strong on this man. I don't want him in Manchester United any time soon as there is no place for him to play regularly.

bosnian_red said:

What does team performance have to do with the difference between his xG and his goal total? Or the comparison that he has a similar non penalty xG rate to the likes of Welbeck/Maupay/Watkins/Fabio Silva? We aren't comparing him to top teams, we're comparing Fiorentina to Brighton/Villa/Wolves, except in the prem compared to in the Serie A. And quality strikers will get on the end of big chances regardless. The exact level that they reach may vary, but a xG/90 rate of 0.38 really isn't anything special, and why you shouldn't get distracted just because he has a good goal total over a short time frame.

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Dont class players always have more goals than xG? Genuine question.

Since xG is measured as an average probability of a shot ending in goal it makes sense that class players surpass their xG and low tier players are always below it.

Feel free to correct me, it's the way I think it works but I'm not 100© sure.

SAFMUTD said:

Dont class players always have more goals than xG? Genuine question.

Since xG is measured as an average probability of a shot ending in goal it makes sense that class players surpass their xG and low tier players are always below it.

Feel free to correct me, it's the way I think it works but I'm not 100© sure.

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You are right. Good finishers beat their xG on average. Vlahovic is definitely a good finisher, but the reason why there is raised some doubts here is because his xG is so low/average. This season he is barely top 30 in Serie A in npxG for players with more that 500 minutes gametime. A top striker should, even for Fiorentina, find himself in better scoring positions more often. If he wasn’t penalty taker or overperforming his xG this season he would have had 5 goals in the 16 games he’s played this season. I would be very surprised if he continues to beat his xG by 50+% in the long run, so his goaltally probably makes him look better than he is.

ExoduS said:

Decent penalty taker, decent left foot and he does have a vision to pass. Definitely a potential to be a great player. Being Serbian and so young, you have to be careful. A lot of talented Serbian players make very questionable decisions when it comes to partying and ladies and all goes to sh1t. The guy seems smart and very passionate, I hope head is strong on this man. I don't want him in Manchester United any time soon as there is no place for him to play regularly.

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Our last two Serbians did well throughout their careers. Maybe the ones that lost their way just didn't have the proper guidance?

This guy has the stamina to gegenpress for 90 minutes. Just sayin’. For his height he is extremely fast and presses all the time. His workrate is enormous! Would be perfect for Ragnicks style of play.

SAFMUTD said:

Dont class players always have more goals than xG? Genuine question.

Since xG is measured as an average probability of a shot ending in goal it makes sense that class players surpass their xG and low tier players are always below it.

Feel free to correct me, it's the way I think it works but I'm not 100© sure.

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Not really the way you would think though! Lewandowski and Ronaldo for example, since 2014/15, both shoot pretty much right to their xG. Same with Benzema/Aguero/Immobile. Cavani underperforms slightly, but all within 5% basically. Messi overperforms it by about 20% I believe, but generally everyone is pretty close. The difference between a players xG and their actual goal total in fact has very little to do with the actual quality of player and if a list was drawn up of app the best finishers and their record, there wouldn't be much of a trend there at all IMO.

What all great goal scorers have in common is just a really high xG rate, high amounts of shots taken, high amount of shots inside the box, etc. They always get in good positions and so score plenty of goals. Not a case of them just being extremely clinical, and in fact that aspect is mostly just average for all of them.

bosnian_red said:

Not really the way you would think though! Lewandowski and Ronaldo for example, since 2014/15, both shoot pretty much right to their xG. Same with Benzema/Aguero/Immobile. Cavani underperforms slightly, but all within 5% basically. Messi overperforms it by about 20% I believe, but generally everyone is pretty close. The difference between a players xG and their actual goal total in fact has very little to do with the actual quality of player and if a list was drawn up of app the best finishers and their record, there wouldn't be much of a trend there at all IMO.

What all great goal scorers have in common is just a really high xG rate, high amounts of shots taken, high amount of shots inside the box, etc. They always get in good positions and so score plenty of goals. Not a case of them just being extremely clinical, and in fact that aspect is mostly just average for all of them.

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I always wonder what Ruud's xG would have been. Shame the stats weren't around when he was in his pomp.