If the Russians knew that USAF is serious about it they wouldn't dare invade. Why would they? It would be a certain defeat for them.And if Russia still invaded?
That’s just not a risk that we should be cavalier about. Ultimately, no one wants war to expand beyond Ukrainian borders for obvious reasons.How many Ukrainians will die till the Russian system implodes?
And if their system implodes, is there a higher or a lower probability of a nuclear war?
(Compared to a clear cut USAF air show in December 2021. )
I think it's funny that you think that.But even if they did invade, USAF would destroy the first few tanks in their columns and the whole thing would probably end there.
Probably more like "... and the world would begin to end there".I think it's funny that you think that.
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How do you think Putin would be able to sell that 'the whole thing would probably end there' scenario to the Russian population and to his inner circle? If the US would strike and Putin would then immediately cancel things, he'd probably lose his position right there and then. He'd never let that happen.If the Russians knew that USAF is serious about it they wouldn't dare invade. Why would they? It would be a certain defeat for them.
But even if they did invade, USAF would destroy the first few tanks in their columns and the whole thing would probably end there.
Do you think that Putin would go full nuclear holocaust in this case? Just because he lost a few tanks? Then, if he loses the war a few months from now, why wouldn't he do the same? After all, the Russians are certain that without American help, Ukraine would not be able to fight for long (and they are not wrong).
Putin would say that he is the wise leader who does not want to destroy the world, unlike warmongering NATO, or something to that effect. He will say that at this moment, Russia cannot win against all the NATO countries. Russian TV often admits that NATO is much stronger, that's not a secret inside Russia. It is not a shame to back down faced by an overwhelming force.How do you think Putin would be able to sell that 'the whole thing would probably end there' scenario to the Russian population and to his inner circle? If the US would strike and Putin would then immediately cancel things, he'd probably lose his position right there and then. He'd never let that happen.
Of course, you could argue that Putin would therefore never have invaded under those circumstances. But that's a game of chicken - what if he does? Who would want to risk that?
Putin can end the world any time he wants, he has the nukes to do it. Why should he want to do it in this scenario if not now? He lacks now everything he would lack in that scenario, so why end the world? No one is invading Russia even if the Russian and forces goes into NATO countries and gets destroyed, because of those same nukes, so there's no threat, then or now. If there was, NATO would have attacked in defense of Ukraine.Probably more like "... and the world would begin to end there".
I can see that, but ultimately, it's risk calculation. What are the chances Putin will react in this way or that, and would be the consequences? I suppose most leaders will conclude that we should not go on a path that might lead to nuclear war, even if the risk percentage is fairly low.Putin would say that he is the wise leader who does not want to destroy the world, unlike warmongering NATO, or something to that effect. He will say that at this moment, Russia cannot win against all the NATO countries. Russian TV often admits that NATO is much stronger, that's not a secret inside Russia. It is not a shame to back down faced by an overwhelming force.
Having said that, Putin is not stupid. He does not want to die, either. He is a bully, and bullies only attack when they are certain that the bigger bully (USAF) will not directly hit them. Yes, he miscalculated the Western response, he expected even less. But he waited for 2 months to make sure that USAF is not going to defend Ukraine. So, he liked his odds. Biden practically assured him that USAF will not do anything.
But you should remember who is doing the "risk calculation". Do you really have any confidence on the "risk calculations" of Biden, Scholtz, Macron, etc? I don't. Afghanistan is fresh. In January, Scholtz was still enthusiastic about Nord Stream 2, etc ...I can see that, but ultimately, it's risk calculation. What are the chances Putin will react in this way or that, and would be the consequences? I suppose most leaders will conclude that we should not go on a path that might lead to nuclear war, even if the risk percentage is fairly low.
An direct attack by NATO on Russian forces would more than likely fall into their scenario of existential threat to Russia. The chances of things getting out of control would escalate enormously.Putin can end the world any time he wants, he has the nukes to do it. Why should he want to do it in this scenario if not now? He lacks now everything he would lack in that scenario, so why end the world? No one is invading Russia even if the Russian and forces goes into NATO countries and gets destroyed, because of those same nukes, so there's no threat, then or now. If there was, NATO would have attacked in defense of Ukraine.
Fecking animals.
You were saying that if Russia invaded a Ukraine that was defended by the US, and got destroyed, that it would be the beginning of the end of the world, that Russia would launch either a full nuclear volley at NATO countries or launch smaller nukes that would lead to escalation and then Armageddon.An direct attack by NATO on Russian forces would more than likely fall into their scenario of existential threat to Russia. The chances of things getting out of control would escalate enormously.
Not really. A direct hit by NATO on Russian forces INSIDE UKRAINE, is no existential threat for Russia. They can just retreat back into Russia.An direct attack by NATO on Russian forces would more than likely fall into their scenario of existential threat to Russia. The chances of things getting out of control would escalate enormously.
Of course they can take the risk, US Presidents took far greater risks standing up to the USSR.Putin is using the Nuke threat to keep NATO from helping Ukraine. The chances of him using them is very slim since we know NATO won't want to become involved in a conflict with Russia.
It's unfortunate for Ukraine because without this threat I'm sure NATO would already have helped militarily. Even if there is a less than 1 percent chance of Putin following through with the threat, NATO still can't take the risk and Putin knows it.
Not if the "normal" nukes were fired all over EuropeOf course they can take the risk, US Presidents took far greater risks standing up to the USSR.
And as insane ideologues as the leaders of the USSR were, none of them wanted to use nukes. Sacrificing Ukraine because of that threat…doesn’t sit will with me.
I mean look at all the destruction already caused. Surely much, much greater than the destruction that would be caused by one “normal” nuke (perhaps their biggest bomb on Kyiv would have been worse, but then Russia aren’t done).
Of course they can take the risk, US Presidents took far greater risks standing up to the USSR.
And as insane ideologues as the leaders of the USSR were, none of them wanted to use nukes. Sacrificing Ukraine because of that threat…doesn’t sit will with me.
I mean look at all the destruction already caused. Surely much, much greater than the destruction that would be caused by one “normal” nuke (perhaps their biggest bomb on Kyiv would have been worse, but then Russia aren’t done).
Yes, precisely because they didn’t do what you’ve suggested.you really have any confidence on the "risk calculations" of Biden, Scholtz, Macron, etc? I don't.
But their calculations were that if they do not offend Putin in December, he may not invade. Did their calculations work?Yes, precisely because they didn’t do what you’ve suggested.
1) Remind me again who told Zalensky that Putin was going to invade.But their calculations were that if they do not offend Putin in December, he may not invade. Did their calculations work?
I didn't say anything about an invasion?You were saying that if Russia invaded a Ukraine that was defended by the US, and got destroyed, that it would be the beginning of the end of the world, that Russia would launch either a full nuclear volley at NATO countries or launch smaller nukes that would lead to escalation and then Armageddon.
I’m not sure why you’re now responding about how Russia would respond to an invasion. I said that no one would do that because of nukes, so I agree that’s a bad way go. Russia doesn’t have to worry about their army being destroyed because no one will invade.
But that’s not at all the same as helping a country destroy an invading Russian army.
I'm saying they will take it as such.Not really. A direct hit by NATO on Russian forces INSIDE UKRAINE, is no existential threat for Russia. They can just retreat back into Russia.
But what I am saying is that in December 2021, just a (serious) threat of NATO doing that, would have prevented the invasion altogether.
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The bigger picture you’ve missed is NATO would be revealing itself to the world as an organisation who were offensive when it suited them. Basically the whole ‘world police’ image the US had. Yes they would carry a huge threat but it would create a need for Russia and China (and others) to work more closely together to combat them and, make no mistake, the US (who are basically NATO’s trump card) is vastly more concerned with China than Russia.But their calculations were that if they do not offend Putin in December, he may not invade. Did their calculations work?
I heard it mentioned on a twitter space that Turkey, or the manufacturer, had requested they stop publishing Bayraktar footage. Though I can't find anything to back that up.I was reading somewhere that the effect of large drones like the bayraktar has diminished in this phase of the war, hence we’re seeing nowhere near as much footage as in the first phase.
Allegedly it’s because now the war efforts are concentrated in smaller areas where Russians have deployed air defences thus making the large, slow drones easy targets.
Orcs, the lot of them
That’s just par for the course when it comes to these creatures.Orcs, the lot of them
Joke of a post. This is on Putin and Russia. Not NATO or the west (and BTW I am a big critic of US/western foreign policy). History shows appeasement doesn't work.This is utter madness. Eventually Putin is going to lash out. Why should the world be destroyed because the Americans and the Europeans have a fight between themselves and the Russians? The majority of the World don't want anything like this. They don't want the Russian invasion of Ukraine, neither do they want NATO to expand and create problems for the majority of the World.