Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

frostbite

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I feel like blaming the likes of Biden for not reading the situation exactly correctly at every turn is a bit unfair. It's not like there is a manual for nuclear war, you have to make your judgements as you go along and you can argue they've been too cautious but then...can you be too cautious about starting the end of the world? Much better to be overly cautious than overly hawkish in such a situation, not that it's perhaps much comfort to the people of Ukraine right now.

Yes, I agree that this seems to be the policy vs Russia for a long time now. Be cautious and be optimistic that everything will work out with diplomacy.

Does this really work in real life? I don't know. Plato said "If you want peace, prepare for war".

For example, I dislike Reagan for his social policies. He was destructive for the US middle class. However, his hawkish behaviour against USSR liberated a lot of Eastern European countries.
 

nimic

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Yes, I agree that this seems to be the policy vs Russia for a long time now. Be cautious and be optimistic that everything will work out with diplomacy.

Does this really work in real life? I don't know. Plato said "If you want peace, prepare for war".

For example, I dislike Reagan for his social policies. He was destructive for the US middle class. However, his hawkish behaviour against USSR liberated a lot of Eastern European countries.
That doesn't remotely describe Europe and the West's response to this war. There's an unprecedented level of external support and internal increase in spending. Now you might say it's not enough, but it's very clearly not just business as usual.

As for Reagan, it's not clear that he had anything to do with the fall of the USSR. There's certainly no historical consensus.
 

frostbite

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That doesn't remotely describe Europe and the West's response to this war. There's an unprecedented level of external support and internal increase in spending. Now you might say it's not enough, but it's very clearly not just business as usual.

As for Reagan, it's not clear that he had anything to do with the fall of the USSR. There's certainly no historical consensus.
The West helped a lot after the invasion. But before the invasion the policy was "Be cautious and be optimistic that everything will work out with diplomacy." In January 2022 Scholtz was 100% behind Nord Stream 2.

About Reagan, of course there is no consensus. What current event has a consensus? Even for the invasion of Ukraine you can find Western historians that blame equally Russia and NATO.
 

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All I'm doing is continuing on from the point I was originally making in the first post you replied to mate.
But the issue is that you keep arguing from a NATO/European point of view. The arguments you are providing don't live in the minds of the people you are questioning. Now, if NATO started a huge propaganda campaign in Africa and made sure that every person everywhere is fully aware of the argument you're providing, then sure, you could argue that they're not weighing the arguments correctly by preferring Russia. But that's not happening, and so people will base opinions on the general information and stereotypes they have (just as many of us will do regarding situations anywhere in Africa). And then NATO is a neo-colonialist power encroaching on Russia, which people living in the post/neo-colonialist reality of virtually all of Africa won't consider positively.
As for Reagan, it's not clear that he had anything to do with the fall of the USSR. There's certainly no historical consensus.
Reagan probably had the best postmortem press anybody's ever had.
 

stevoc

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But the issue is that you keep arguing from a NATO/European point of view. The arguments you are providing don't live in the minds of the people you are questioning. Now, if NATO started a huge propaganda campaign in Africa and made sure that every person everywhere is fully aware of the argument you're providing, then sure, you could argue that they're not weighing the arguments correctly by preferring Russia. But that's not happening, and so people will base opinions on the general information and stereotypes they have (just as many of us will do regarding situations anywhere in Africa). And then NATO is a neo-colonialist power encroaching on Russia, which people living in the post/neo-colonialist reality of virtually all of Africa won't consider positively.

Reagan probably had the best postmortem press anybody's ever had.
What arguments?

I just said in my 2nd last post in this thread that I wouldn't know for sure that worldwide most people would be against countries joining Nato.
 

nimic

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About Reagan, of course there is no consensus. What current event has a consensus? Even for the invasion of Ukraine you can find Western historians that blame equally Russia and NATO.
Okay, I see I was being too cautious, opening myself up to that kind of response. What I meant to say was that Reagan did not cause the fall of the USSR.
 

Cheimoon

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What arguments?

I just said in my 2nd last post in this thread that I wouldn't know for sure that worldwide most people would be against countries joining Nato.
But in the highlighted bits below, you did each time make a point about opinions you think people may/may not have.
Yeah the majority of people in South America, Africa and Asia care deeply about NATO 'expanding'.

This is a problem created solely by Putin and Russia, the best thing for the people of Ukraine, the world and even Russia would be if they ended this unjustified attack tomorrow. Which they could but they won't.
Here you're implying that these people won't care. But they might, actually.
I'm aware that some countries especially in Africa are on the face of it pro Russian because of their history with the Soviet Union in the past and the prevalence of Russian propaganda in those countries media. But some countries leaning more towards Russia than the West isn't the same as the majority of the world being against eastern European countries joining a defensive alliance that will prevent them form being invaded and annexed.
Here you are basically putting words into people's mouths/minds, specifying what they oppose/support exactly.
First off I interpreted the post I first replied to be referring to people in general not governments or supranational organizations, which is why I said people as that's who I was talking about.

In your opinion are the majority of the World's population against former Soviet block countries joining NATO for protection?
The majority of the world would see former Soviet bloc countries wanting protection from aggressive neighbours negatively?

Well I wouldn't know for sure if that would actually be the case but it would surprise me to be honest if it were.

Perhaps not but then that is the goal of propaganda.
Same here both times.

I don't see how you can say you're not providing arguments for these people's opinions.
 

frostbite

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Okay, I see I was being too cautious, opening myself up to that kind of response. What I meant to say was that Reagan did not cause the fall of the USSR.
So you believe that was mostly a coincidence that the hawks Reagan/Bush leaded the West during the 10 years before the fall of USSR. You may be right, who knows?
 

stevoc

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Here you're implying that these people won't care. But they might, actually.
Yeah they might or they might not I wouldn't know for a sure as I've said. Do you know for sure?

Here you are basically putting words into people's mouths/minds, specifying what they oppose/support exactly.
Sorry what?

Is some countries being pro Russian the same as the majority of the world being against countries joining NATO?

Same here both times.

I don't see how you can say you're not providing arguments for these people's opinions.
Those were questions were they not?
 

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No appeasement never works. But it was not appeasement before the invasion. Are forgetting the Cuban missile crisis?
The majority of the people in this world don't think they should suffer for the fight between two super powers to show whose got the bigger dick.
Without going into why the current crisis is no where near comparable with the Cuban Missile Crisis, what do you think the West/NATO/EU/US etc should have done in the face of Putin's aggression (do you actually think this was Russian aggression in the first place)?

Genuinely curious.
 

Ødegaard

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Yes, I agree that this seems to be the policy vs Russia for a long time now. Be cautious and be optimistic that everything will work out with diplomacy.

Does this really work in real life? I don't know. Plato said "If you want peace, prepare for war".

For example, I dislike Reagan for his social policies. He was destructive for the US middle class. However, his hawkish behaviour against USSR liberated a lot of Eastern European countries.
But in Plato's time nuclear wasn't an option.
 

TwoSheds

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Yes, I agree that this seems to be the policy vs Russia for a long time now. Be cautious and be optimistic that everything will work out with diplomacy.

Does this really work in real life? I don't know. Plato said "If you want peace, prepare for war".

For example, I dislike Reagan for his social policies. He was destructive for the US middle class. However, his hawkish behaviour against USSR liberated a lot of Eastern European countries.
Look I'm not the one saying Biden's policies are broadly wrong, you are. All I'm saying is that in any war nobody gets every decision right. You're always going to say the wrong thing at some point, send the weapons to the wrong place, hesitate a bit too long to start training on something etc etc. That is what it is to be a human in the universe - to do your best and to occasionally fall short.

What I'm saying is it's very unfair to judge Biden about your perception of what he's done wrong up to now. End of the day it's an incredibly difficult situation and the simple facts are we're not at nuclear war, we're not even really on the brink of nuclear war, the Ukrainians haven't lost (and probably won't), and Russia isn't in a stronger position than they were before the war, quite the opposite in fact. Maybe we could save some more lives by acting in a different way, but that's a hypothetical and broadly speaking we could all be doing a lot worse by now given the gravity of the situation.
 

JPRouve

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Exactly!

The MAD doctrine still holds, there will be no nuclear war. Even Putin is not demented.
As long as NATO doesn't go on the offense. Because if you put Putin in a corner the situation is totally different and no one can tell what will happen.
 

frostbite

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As long as NATO doesn't go on the offense. Because if you put Putin in a corner the situation is totally different and no one can tell what will happen.
What is different? Putin will be demented "if you put him in a corner"?
 

JPRouve

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What is different? Putin will be demented "if you put him in a corner"?
Desperation, that's the difference. Most people won't jump through their window... unless there is a fire in the building.
 

frostbite

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Desperation, that's the difference. Most people won't jump through their window... unless there is a fire in the building.
Desperation? So Putin will jump out of the building? Or perhaps he will use a bullet? Yes, this is possible I agree. Still not demented.
 

JPRouve

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Desperation? So Putin will jump out of the building? Or perhaps he will use a bullet? Yes, this is possible I agree. Still not demented.
What are you talking about? Demented related to the absence of fear, you can do frightening things in spite of fear.
 

frostbite

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Interesting analysis. Recommended!

Putin needs a drawn-out war – the west’s timidity gives him one

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/28/putin-ar-the-west-zelenskiy-ukraine-russia

President Zelenskiy and Ukraine want it finished by winter, but Russia still holds the balance of power

Russia’s latest attack on civilian targets in Ukraine, causing at least 18 deaths in a shopping centre in Kremenchuk, far from the frontline, could be interpreted as a message to the G7 and Nato meetings under way in Germany. The message is one of Russia’s indifference to condemnation of its crimes. Moscow will not back down. And that in turn may be based on confidence – whether sound or misguided – that over the long term the war is going Russia’s way.

Russia has been making gains. Its eastern Ukraine offensive slowly grinds forward by destroying everything in its path, and there is a growing realisation in the west that there will be no early end to the conflict. But the war is dragged out even further by Russia successfully deterring Ukraine’s western backers from providing it with the weapons systems it needs – including more ammunition, drones, jammers, radars, and means of intercepting Russia’s long-range missile strikes like the ones seen over recent days.

[...]

Successfully dissuading the west from providing Ukraine all the support it needs to turn the tide of the war confirms once again for Vladimir Putin that Russia’s military inferiority to the west can be overcome through leveraging western fear.

In fact, the west’s clearly stated fear of escalation proves to Russia that threats work, regardless of how implausible they may be or how often they have been shown to be empty.

By now it’s a tediously repetitive cycle of promises of nuclear annihilation for whoever has most recently upset Russia’s propagandists – for example Russian state TV recently discussed attacking the Netherlands. Russia’s nuclear threats will continue for as long as they are effective in preventing Ukraine being provided with war-winning military support.


[...]
 
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frostbite

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What are you talking about? Demented related to the absence of fear, you can do frightening things in spite of fear.
If Putin is desperate he will kill himself, for example like Hitler did.

He has to be demented to start a nuclear war, that's what you said above, and I agreed. And not only Putin, multiple Russians in the chain of command have to be demented to start a nuclear war with NATO. Do you think there are multiple Russians that are demented? I don't think so.
 

JPRouve

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If Putin is desperate he will kill himself, for example like Hitler did.

He has to be demented to start a nuclear war, that's what you said above, and I agreed. And not only Putin, multiple Russians in the chain of command have to be demented to start a nuclear war with NATO. Do you think there are multiple Russians that are demented? I don't think so.
Or he will cause the death of millions knowing that he is done.
 

frostbite

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Or he will cause the death of millions knowing that he is done.
So you think he will be demented!. And you also think that other Russians around him in the chain of command will also be demented and they will start a nuclear war.

I disagree. I don't think the Russians will be demented no matter how desperate they are.
 

Ødegaard

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So you think he will be demented!. And you also think that other Russians around him in the chain of command will also be demented and they will start a nuclear war.

I disagree. I don't think the Russians will be demented no matter how desperate they are.
It's a fair worry to have.
 

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One example. In December 2021 Biden said Russia will pay a heavy price if it invades Ukraine. This is weak. He did not specify anything, this sounds like an empty threat.

If Biden said "USAF will obliterate any Russian forces that enter Ukraine", and he meant it, and F-16s started flying inside Ukraine near the Russian border, with F-22s and F-35s and B-52s nearby... do you really think that Putin would ever invade Ukraine? I don't think so. Putin had his forces on the border for 2 months and was waiting to see what the NATO response is. NATO did nothing: that was the green light for Putin.

Of course, I understand that if Biden did that, the whole world would blame him as warmonger. We'd see the global anti-american squad in full force. Well yes, but how many lives would have been saved by this "USAF air show"? Sometimes leaders do not have any good options, they have to choose the least worst option from an array of bad options.
And if Russia still invaded?
If the Russians knew that USAF is serious about it they wouldn't dare invade. Why would they? It would be a certain defeat for them.

But even if they did invade, USAF would destroy the first few tanks in their columns and the whole thing would probably end there.

Do you think that Putin would go full nuclear holocaust in this case? Just because he lost a few tanks? Then, if he loses the war a few months from now, why wouldn't he do the same? After all, the Russians are certain that without American help, Ukraine would not be able to fight for long (and they are not wrong).
I think it's funny that you think that.
Probably more like "... and the world would begin to end there".
This is the conversation you commented on, you were saying, as I said, that if Russia invaded and the US defended Ukraine, it would be the end of the world.

I didn't say anything about an invasion?
You've lost me.
So that's how you were commenting on an invasion without saying anything about an invasion.
 

JPRouve

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So you think he will be demented!. And you also think that other Russians around him in the chain of command will also be demented and they will start a nuclear war.

I disagree. I don't think the Russians will be demented no matter how desperate they are.
You are mixing two things, it's completely irrational to not fear the nuclear weapons of your enemy. Now there is a rational in accepting your own death and be ready to take your enemies with you. If you want to neglect it by all mean do it but I won't because that's essentially what soldiers do whenever they are on theater of war.

Also Putin could easily be crazy, the man was crying about statues.
 

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So that's how you were commenting on an invasion without saying anything about an invasion.
I believe he was speaking of Russia invading Ukraine and then also responding to part of your post that reads as if you’re talking about Russia being invaded.
 

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This is the conversation you commented on, you were saying, as I said, that if Russia invaded and the US defended Ukraine, it would be the end of the world.



So that's how you were commenting on an invasion without saying anything about an invasion.
Yes. That's all about invading Ukraine. Not Russia. Read back through it again.
 

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This isn't as strong as it seems. This is the actual declaration they signed:

The arms embargo point is correct, but the PKK is already considered a terrorist organized by the EU (so whatever Kurdish support Finland and Sweden provide is already situated within that framework); those new laws predate this declaration (the text itself says that Finland's is already in effect, and Sweden's comes into force on Friday); intelligence sharing seems pretty standard to me within a military organization; and the declaration only says that Finland and Sweden will handle extradition requests 'expeditiously and thoroughly', taking into account Turkish info, not that they will always extradite them.

I don't mean to say that it all means nothing, as then obviously Turkey wouldn't have agreed. But it's not quite as far-reaching as Mr. Soylu implies either.
 
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