If Barcelona got it right on the pitch and won the next 2 la liga titles would that be enough to maintain their squad/finances?
Probably not. Barca's biggest enemy right now is interest rates and the strong dollar.
In Jan 2021 their debt was €1.1bn with €730m in short term debt with another significant proportion in medium term debt. Last reports had €330m'ish maturing this year (supporting the €730m figure) alone and that the total debt was around €1.35bn in Summer 2021. Current reports say that they took on more debt during the last year.
I won't go into guessing what that figure now stands at, but it is quite apprant they needed to take on more debt since June 2021, all the while with a near junk credit rating. However, without details it is all thumb in the air, so let's work with the €1.35bn figure and the €730m of short term debt.
However, before that it needs to be remembered the above figure is barely manageable for them at ultra low rates since they have had to;
a) sell future revenues
b ) have players take deferments
c) sell all sponsorship
This is while they're qualifying for the CL.
Now, back to the debt.
We know interest rates are going up. Around 1.5% minimum is a good guess, however with their near junk status it is probably (a lot) higher.
However, for arguments sake lets work with €730m plus a 1.5% rise (they need to refi asap to avoid getting future increases.) This means, the financing of their loans (read; not capital repayment) is around €11m more expensive than last year. On top of this the Euro is weak against the Dollar which a lot of debt are written in owing it to be the worlds reserve currency. The difference between June 2021 to June 2022 is approximately 10% so that is another €1.1m while there total debts if you go off USD and convert to EUR means the €1.35bn figure is €1.48bn.
Personally, I am not sure what they're doing with the capital injection they got the other day. A sensible person would use that to pay down some of the short term debt, even if to try and improve the credit rating to get better rates going forward, as well as insuring that the debt doesn't spiral further. However, that doesn't seem like the course, and they're still banking on future growth to grow their way out of their problems (this is the logic that got them to €1.3bn in the first place.)
So, financially they're absolutely fecked. The only way out for them is a combination of the following:
1) They get back to growth quickly and the growth is rapid. This is the most important factor for them. This however, is incredibly difficult as they've also started selling off future revenues.
2) EUR significantly reverses its losses against USD. Tbf, this may not be so important if all the debt is written in EUR (unlikely.)
3) Interest rates stop going up. If this goes up much more it is likely they'll default in the near term, at which point the creditors get to decide how to minimise their losses.
A CL run of an extra €40m across the year or a La Liga win of a few mill isn't going to cut it.
