All the more urgent now that we're moving towards a new brand of football. DDG is laughably bad at passing it out from the back.at people still saying replacing him isn't a priority, what have you even been watching the last 4 years?
Replacing de gea should be the priority
- Thread starter Lee565
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If you think about De Gea situation it's actually a huge problem for ETH and terrible decision making from the club's higher ups.
De Gea's £375,000 contract expires this summer, but the club have an option to extend. It's obvious to everyone that De Gea is not suited to ETH's possession based philosophy, so if ETH is still the manager next summer, the club almost certainly will decline to exercise the the option. If De Gea becomes a free player next season, he's unlikely to receive offers for even 1/3rd of his current wages.
The club has inadvertently given De Gea a huge financial interest in ETH being sacked by next summer.
To be clear, I'm not accusing De Gea of deliberately throwing matches to get Ten Hag fired; however, it's an extremely awkward situation for both the player and the manager, and I think a decently run club would have addressed this before the season started.
De Gea's £375,000 contract expires this summer, but the club have an option to extend. It's obvious to everyone that De Gea is not suited to ETH's possession based philosophy, so if ETH is still the manager next summer, the club almost certainly will decline to exercise the the option. If De Gea becomes a free player next season, he's unlikely to receive offers for even 1/3rd of his current wages.
The club has inadvertently given De Gea a huge financial interest in ETH being sacked by next summer.
To be clear, I'm not accusing De Gea of deliberately throwing matches to get Ten Hag fired; however, it's an extremely awkward situation for both the player and the manager, and I think a decently run club would have addressed this before the season started.
Yeah GK has shot up priority list considerably
SAF said something about goalscorers win matches but defense wins you leagues.
This is why De Gea needs to be changed.
A poison of a player that makes you feel better than he really is.
This is why De Gea needs to be changed.
A poison of a player that makes you feel better than he really is.
I sense lack of communication from the coach, defense and gk. I haven’t seen United play in a while and I have to say that in some of the goals came after it was required that de Gea use his feet, the defense was so badly positioned for him to try to even pass it to them. It would have been easier to just play long ball rather than start from the back.
No he was their best player last season before he got injured, you could argue that without him they struggled.
He should be on our shortlist to replace De Gea, there's no way any member on this current team deserves a new deal, no i mean none of them, we shouldn't be looking to negotiate new terms with any of the current player, we either sell or let them go on a free.
It starts with the goalkeeper. ETH should have done it already.
I have loads of times there's a great shot in the highlights at around 38/39 seconds. I can't take a still of it. But it's all kinds of wrong.
98 times out of 100 that is an easy save, you drop and smother the ball with your body behind it. It's basic goalkeeping, he's had a shocker there because of the way he goes for the ball, his feet are all wrong, his dive is all wrong, his hands are all wrong, even he knows it.
Christ alive. It’s basic goalkeeping. There is no defence for it whatsoever. The way I explained it is how probably 95% of goalkeepers at any level are stopping it as it’s the easiest way to hold onto the ball. Particularly De Gea who never goes down in the traditional ball into feet way of a goalkeeper.
I think DDG largely benefitted from having Rio, Vidic and Evra infront of him. 3 defenders who were not only good but vocal and had leadership qualities. Their qualities filtered down to the likes of Smalling and Jones who did it okayish but not as well.
Now all those Fergie players are gone, the weaknesses are more exposed.
Now all those Fergie players are gone, the weaknesses are more exposed.
For anyone who doesn't believe that replacing De Gea should be a priority, have a look at these damning numbers from last season, and the damning numbers already this season:
In our 5 heaviest away defeats last season, De Gea conceded 20 goals from 39 attempts on target.
That translates as every 2nd attempt he faced on target being a goal:
Watford 4-1 Man Utd
7 attempts on target by Watford
Leicester 4-2 Man Utd
11 attempts on target by Leicester
Man City 4-1 Man Utd
10 attempts on target by City
Liverpool 4-0 Man Utd
5 attempts on target by Liverpool
Brighton 4-0 Man Utd
6 attempts on target by Brighton
39 attempts on target at the goalkeeper, 20 goals conceded.
That. Is. Horrendous.
Stop hiding behind his camera saves, and see David De Gea for what he actually is.
He is a not just a problem.
...he is a MAJOR problem.
In the opening 2 games of this season he has conceded 6 goals from 11 attempts on target.
I will repeat what I have said already:
'That translates as every 2nd attempt he faced on target being a goal'
In our 5 heaviest away defeats last season, De Gea conceded 20 goals from 39 attempts on target.
That translates as every 2nd attempt he faced on target being a goal:
Watford 4-1 Man Utd
7 attempts on target by Watford
Leicester 4-2 Man Utd
11 attempts on target by Leicester
Man City 4-1 Man Utd
10 attempts on target by City
Liverpool 4-0 Man Utd
5 attempts on target by Liverpool
Brighton 4-0 Man Utd
6 attempts on target by Brighton
39 attempts on target at the goalkeeper, 20 goals conceded.
That. Is. Horrendous.
Stop hiding behind his camera saves, and see David De Gea for what he actually is.
He is a not just a problem.
...he is a MAJOR problem.
In the opening 2 games of this season he has conceded 6 goals from 11 attempts on target.
I will repeat what I have said already:
'That translates as every 2nd attempt he faced on target being a goal'
As bad as that seems, and it does seem bad, context does have to be placed on these shots on target.
I guess to really find out how culpable De Gea is/was on these shots you'd have to get the expected goal ratio for each shot against the expected save ratio, and look at the goals allowed percentage too.
As I am sure some of them like Gross at Brighton were essentially tap ins or shots where De Gea had no chance really.
So yeah, it may look bad on paper, but in context it may not look as bad as it actually is for De Gea.
Absolutely. Doesn't help that our captain is the opposite of a leader.
If Ten Hag persists with Maguire our new keeper will have to be a good leader on top of his other qualities.
I hope to god you're not talking about the two goals Gross scored last weekend as goals De Gea had no chance with.
We need a new goalkeeper, there is no question of that.
But his best seasons came long after they’d retired. In fact it took them leaving before he came out of himself. From 2011-13 he was shaky, even when we won the league he was rotated in and out - Lindegaard started 10 premier league games that season.
Not that he shouldn't be replaced but your stats don't show the type of chances he conceded from.
He didn't have a chance of saving the first goal, nor indeed the second one, and please bear in mind we are discussing shots on target here (no doubt you are referring to the cross which De Gea could or could not have dived upon).
De Gea needs replacing, and NOW!
We need a new keeper. They need to be able to contribute to the build up, comfortable sweeping in behind and also able to make a save or 50 every game when our defence collapses.
So who is the best keeper with the ball at his feet? According to fbref, it is Manuel Riemann (Bochum), closely followed by Stefan Ortega (bought by City this summer), but there is probably a bit more to it than a simple statistical analysis...
So who is the best keeper with the ball at his feet? According to fbref, it is Manuel Riemann (Bochum), closely followed by Stefan Ortega (bought by City this summer), but there is probably a bit more to it than a simple statistical analysis...
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If you're specifically referring to the shots then you're highlighting the flaw in the statistic that you suggested using to quantify his performances in those fixtures from last season.
But if you insist:
Watford, PSxG 3.5
Leicester PSxG 4.5
City PSxG 3.3
Liverpool PSxG 2.8
Brighton PSxG 2.7
So across those 5 games he's at -3.2 PSxG. And that's purely on shots on target as you said, therefore does not include goals where his abysmal passes out put his teammates under immediate pressure leading to goals or situations were he could have come and dealt with the ball thus killing the chance before there was even a chance. You'll be shocked to know that he dealt with zero crosses in those five games and helped his defenders by sweeping behind them once (yes, once, in five whole matches).
By the way I'm referring to both goals last week. Of course he should have cut the pull back out for the first, it goes without saying frankly but the second goal was also abysmal goalkeeping and I've done it to death in his thread so won't bore people with the specific details but long story short, he overcompensates on position initially, as such he never sets for the shot and his feet are all wrong which is why he couldn't get down quickly enough to hold the shot and he's pushed the ball out into a blind spot where he's got no chance of stopping any rebound.
Interesting to note that De Geas figures in terms of expected goals/goals allowed, basically any metric regarding shots saved were pretty much in line last season with Alisson, Ederson and Mendy.
I am still unsure if he could have cut that ball out from the pull back, but that's a difficult one to judge. Not quite sure how close it actually was to him, would have been good reactions to move his body into a position to cut that ball out with his hands, he would have had to move his body forward and get down extremely quick.
The second goal v Brighton, there's nothing he could have done, he made a good stop just unfortunate that a Brighton player was there for the rebound, you get taught as a GK to push the ball away from goal, that's what De Gea did, with a strong wrist too, better that then back into the middle, there was no chance of him holding on to that shot.
It should already have been a priority under Ole for other reasons, but is definitely one now. Not least because its not actually that hard to find a keeper. There aren't many world class keepers out there, but there are certainly lots of good ones. Finding one who whose strengths align with ETH's style of play really should not be that hard, and GKs are rarely super expensive. We should be getting one in, at least as a stop gap measure.
Agreed. It’s top priority imo.
Also maguire, fred, dalot, shaw, bruno, sancho and ronaldo
De Gea before Scott, Fred and Dalot? Give me a break
First goal, it's inches from him. The vast majority of PL level goalkeepers are cutting that ball out with ease.
Second, in an ideal world, you are correct in that you are taught to push the ball wide however the caveats to that are that you're absolutely not taught to push the ball into a blind spot (unless it's out of play) or across the face of your own goal; both of which he did. The benefit of pushing the ball out directly in front of you in that instance is that he can see there were centre backs there to deal with the ball and if they were beaten to the ball by an attacker he still has an opportunity to stop the rebound as the ball has to go past him - in pushing it into a blind area he he taking himself out of the equation for any rebound. And in any case, if his positioning was right in the first instance his chance of holding the shot was far greater as he'd be collapsing on the ball, he overcompensated initially in moving across his goal (which I'm not going to criticise him for because it's commonplace for goalkeepers to do so in that instance) and was trying to both shuffle back into position and sort his feet out as the shot was taken which is why he wasn't set for the shot and why he was slow getting down, hence him not holding the shot. I've long been a critic of De Gea's but it's actually the sort of shot he does usually hold onto and I think he was disappointed with himself.
I am all for taking a scientific approach when it comes to analysis of player performance, however, I am extremely sceptical about what we can tell about a GKs ability from a metric like 'expected saves'.
Firstly, I have to caveat that by saying that IF two GKs are very similar in more traditional metrics (i.e. % shots saved, crosses claimed, successful sweeps, successful passes etc...) THEN I think looking at the expected saves Data could be useful. I am not dismissing it as useless, you would rather have more Data than less Data, as long as you're interpreting it correctly...but like any Data, it can also be very misleading/dangerous if you don't interpret it correctly.
For example, 'expected saves' doesn't take into account any of the 'preventive' measures goalkeepers can take to ensure they don't face shots with a high xG. For example, we all know that De Gea likes to remain rooted to his goal-line. Now, this means he's basically buying himself an extra split-second to make a reflex save and possibly results in a small amount of saves being made that a more 'aggressive' goalkeeper couldn't make, all other things being equal. So in that sense, he might gain 'xS' points. However, it also means he is likely to face shots with a higher xG and a lower xS...because he is doing nothing to prevent strong goal-scoring opportunities (like closing the angle, claiming crosses, sweeping his area etc....)
We have seen that with modern goalkeeping that prevention is far better than 'cure', i.e. closing the angle, sweeping and dominating your penalty area are all more 'plus EV' in terms of preventing goals than just standing on your goal-line and trying to pull-off improbable reflex stops. So how does all of that translate? You mention a goalkeeper like Allisson....how many goals does he prevent with his aggressive, progressive style? How many goals does he prevent by rushing out to smother a shot taken by a forward before they had chance to get set or create a better angle? How is all of this factored into 'expected saves'?
Personally, I think we're going too deep into the 'meta' sometimes with this analysis. A basic eye-test and the very obvious statistics posted by a few people above (save percentage lower than 50% at times when the average is 70%+) all tell me that DDG is not a very good goalkeeper now.
Brighton have/had a few players that would be useful for us. Cucurella was obviously one, Caicedo another. But their keeper Sanchez is impressive also, his distribution is some of the best I've seen from a keeper.
Good post. Sometimes you have to lay it out in black and white for people to acknowledge just how bad he has become. You can see it with your own eyes most weeks anyway, but shot stopping is his one redeeming quality - and even that is far from what it was a few years ago.
Great post, when we really get hammered aDe Gea losing his bottle is usually a pre-requisite. Always remember the 3rd goals conceded against Everton at home which ended 3-3 and Leipzig away where he chickened out of a challenge on Kluivert.
Stats without context are meaningless, I have said that on here time and time again, however the conversation here is regarding shots on target and the fact that De Gea had let in a high proportion of shots on target in, which led to the discussion of shots/expected saves/goals etc.
So in that context I think it's fair and correct to look directly at the stats and compare.
I am not comparing them as GKs, if I was then Mendy would be number one, he is far and away the best keeper for me in the league.
I am merely comparing shots saved/against shots expected to be scored Vs saved etc, in the context that apparently De Gea isn't very good at this.
Sanchez from Brighton would be a step in the right direction
But then one of those Gross tap-ins was also a result of a feeble save from de Gea.
Ignoring accounts we don't have the finances for wholesale changes, who would be available to come in now if we could make the fee?
And that's where I stop, it wasn't inches, he went with an outstretched leg and couldn't get it, suggesting it was probably a few feet away, it's actually very difficult to tell and judge distances on camera, but it was certainly more than 'inches'.
You are being incredibly harsh with the second goal, he made a very good stop, pushed it out away from goal, there was no way he was holding that shot. Ridiculous to claim otherwise.
The shot was close to his feet, he was also blinded slightly by players in his way, it was actually a very good stop.
He done what any other GK would do in that situation and clawed it away from goal, the Brighton player was quickest to react.
This is a very good point, I don't know why but Man United seem to have a problem where once a player signs a new contract, they start to underperform, massively so with say Rashford. Bruno too I would put into that category. Plus the person under discussion here: David De Gea. In the keepers defence though hasn't he been Man United's player of the season in about 5 out of the last ten seasons - that would tell people he has ability, but also shows that there are problems in front of him and even in midfield that have meant he has been super-busy. They always say on TV: the outstanding keepers are the ones who keep their concentration because they make a save after hardly having to do anything, DDG has been too busy for a top side-type keeper and that is on the rest of the team.
Phil Jones is still at Manchester United, I think he is from fergie time, I know he has had massive injury issues, but didn't he have a game last season and do well, is he fit to play now?
& is he any good in goal?
The problem with statistical analysis is, well I remember hearing that Man United (along with many big clubs) have a massive database with reports from scouts and stats and stuff to help identify targets but awhile back they used the computer to identify a right-back and at the top of 800 names was Aaron Wan-Bissaka. But thank you for putting a couple of names forward, this thread is obviously a very detailed breakdown of De Geas recent loss of form, so sadly I think it is time to get someone new in, if someone can be found and bought in the next 2 weeks.
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He had to play the long game, but in the end Joe Hart won
I have to say I agree with the OP. I believe a new GK would be one of the most 'plus EV' moves we could make in the short-term.
I think collectively we all have major doubts or gripes about players in every position across the team, but I feel like in-terms of simply looking at 'what is the most points we can win per position' I would say replacing the GK and two new CMs would see the biggest return.
I think collectively we all have major doubts or gripes about players in every position across the team, but I feel like in-terms of simply looking at 'what is the most points we can win per position' I would say replacing the GK and two new CMs would see the biggest return.
To add to all of the above....I remember seeing an interview with Mark Bosnich on DDG about two seasons ago. Now, I appreciate we might not consider Bosnich a great Oracle and master-analyst but he did make a very, very interesting point.
Bosnich's observation was that DDG can often be seen falling backwards as he attempts to stop low shots because of the way he has gone with his feet throughout his career...and that actually makes it very difficult for him to either spring sideways and/or make saves with his hands when the ball is hit low.
When the ball is hit in the air he does not appear to have the same issue because he is always going with his hands for obvious reasons. I thought this was a very good insight.
Also, the Brighton goal we're debating above is a classic example of this. The vast majority of goalkeepers would have dived forwarded and simply collected the ball...because DDG goes with his feet, his bodyweight is moving backwards...and that's the crucial part in all of this.
Again, if that were the only example of this, I'd say we're being overly critical...but it's a recurring theme and a major technical flaw
Bosnich's observation was that DDG can often be seen falling backwards as he attempts to stop low shots because of the way he has gone with his feet throughout his career...and that actually makes it very difficult for him to either spring sideways and/or make saves with his hands when the ball is hit low.
When the ball is hit in the air he does not appear to have the same issue because he is always going with his hands for obvious reasons. I thought this was a very good insight.
Also, the Brighton goal we're debating above is a classic example of this. The vast majority of goalkeepers would have dived forwarded and simply collected the ball...because DDG goes with his feet, his bodyweight is moving backwards...and that's the crucial part in all of this.
Again, if that were the only example of this, I'd say we're being overly critical...but it's a recurring theme and a major technical flaw