Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

groovyalbert · Sep 12, 2022

Great to hear about the gains being made by Ukraine's counter-offensive, here's hoping their inroads continue.

Out of interest, is there any update on how Western sanctions are hitting Russia? Last I was aware, Russia was effectively manipulating their own economy/valuations in order to offset any potential nosedive, what's the situation now? And how is this impacting normal day-to-day life? Would be interesting to see the impact this is having on civilian life compared to how Russia have upset energy markets for many in Europe.

VorZakone · Sep 12, 2022

groovyalbert said:
Great to hear about the gains being made by Ukraine's counter-offensive, here's hoping their inroads continue.

Out of interest, is there any update on how Western sanctions are hitting Russia? Last I was aware, Russia was effectively manipulating their own economy/valuations in order to offset any potential nosedive, what's the situation now? And how is this impacting normal day-to-day life? Would be interesting to see the impact this is having on civilian life compared to how Russia have upset energy markets for many in Europe.

Yale did a study on the sanctions. Here's a summary:

https://www.dw.com/en/yale-study-shows-sanctions-are-crippling-russias-economy/a-62623738

The authors of the Yale study said that Russia had no path out of "economic oblivion," provided that Western allies stay unified on sanctions.

"Defeatist headlines arguing that Russia's economy has bounced back are simply not factual — the facts are that, by any metric and on any level, the Russian economy is reeling, and now is not the time to step on the brakes," it said.

Dans · Sep 12, 2022

VorZakone said:
Yale did a study on the sanctions. Here's a summary:

https://www.dw.com/en/yale-study-shows-sanctions-are-crippling-russias-economy/a-62623738

That study is 2 months old now - it would be interesting to know how things actually are there now, whether what was in that report has transpired or is in fact further from the reality insofar as in Russia things are much worse.

harms · Sep 12, 2022

groovyalbert said:
Out of interest, is there any update on how Western sanctions are hitting Russia? Last I was aware, Russia was effectively manipulating their own economy/valuations in order to offset any potential nosedive, what's the situation now? And how is this impacting normal day-to-day life? Would be interesting to see the impact this is having on civilian life compared to how Russia have upset energy markets for many in Europe.

The main hit was taken by small businesses & entertainment industry. Plus there's a huge rise of unemployment in regions after the exodus of big international companies that had their production factories in Russia. Inflation grows quite quickly. The quality of products (from food to literally everything else) has dropped significantly. The whole economy is more or less isolated from the outside which allows Russia to retain a very favorable ruble price but they're not doing it by improving its value, they're doing it by restricting its trade.

The biggest issue is mid-to-long term effects on a more complicated production cycles. Every complicated machinery needs a steady supply of new details to keep up functioning and this supply is limited to say the least. The aviation have taken the hit earlier due to how closed off the market for those details are (and how important it is to prevent anything from happening — in other production you can risk it a bit more) — they are tearing down some planes to get details for other planes and this is not a sustainable strategy.

Plus Russia still gets an enormous amount of money from the export of energy sources which it uses to cover the ever-growing cracks in its economy but that input of cash is going to dry up pretty soon.

Here's a decent read that is still more or less readable if you translate it from Russian via google:
https://meduza.io/feature/2022/09/0...skuyu-ekonomiku-no-etogo-ne-sluchilos-pochemu

Simbo · Sep 12, 2022

Rajma said:
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Interesting, not sure if it’s genuine or a psyop of by Ukrainian armed forces to sow the panic amidst the counteroffensive.

Don’t have another tweet on it but there are strong rumours “several thousand” Russian troops are negotiating for surrender in the western Kherson region.

dove · Sep 12, 2022

Steady progress in the south as well.

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Real Name · Sep 12, 2022

Well that escalated quickly. Onwards and upwards!

The Firestarter · Sep 12, 2022

Real Name said:
Well that escalated quickly. Onwards and upwards!

Or downwards, geographically.

Rajma · Sep 12, 2022

Simbo said:
Don’t have another tweet on it but there are strong rumours “several thousand” Russian troops are negotiating for surrender in the western Kherson region.

Correct.

Real Name · Sep 12, 2022

The Firestarter said:
Or downwards, geographically.

Eastwards and southwards.

cyberman · Sep 12, 2022

So they surrender and Ukraine takes their supplies and get stronger as they continue to liberate?
Remember those twitter accounts that 100 percent said it was impossible for Ukraine to take back what was lost and everybody took it as gospel because of a blue tick and testimonies form others who simply believed the blue tick?

The Firestarter · Sep 12, 2022

Real Name said:
Eastwards and southwards.

Indeed

tomaldinho1 · Sep 12, 2022

VorZakone said:
Can Putin still sell a success to the Russian public if they're pushed back all the way to pre-invasion borders? Technically speaking...he would still control the Donbas.

In the made up world of the special operation, of course.

They destroyed the Nazi threat and then stayed a while to ensure all was ok, then left the Ukrainians to enjoy their new freedom.

The Firestarter · Sep 12, 2022

tomaldinho1 said:
In the made up world of the special operation, of course.

They destroyed the Nazi threat and then stayed a while to ensure all was ok, then left the Ukrainians to enjoy their new freedom.

He can say whatever he wants but the population is not mentally deficient , they know full well they got their behinds kicked.

maniak · Sep 12, 2022

I'd love to be a fly on the wall in putin's office right now. I imagine similar rants to those in that famous hitler in the bunker film.

Real Name · Sep 12, 2022

VorZakone said:
Can Putin still sell a success to the Russian public if they're pushed back all the way to pre-invasion borders? Technically speaking...he would still control the Donbas.

Just like Hitler sold success to German public after Stalingrad.

groovyalbert · Sep 12, 2022

VorZakone said:
Yale did a study on the sanctions. Here's a summary:

https://www.dw.com/en/yale-study-shows-sanctions-are-crippling-russias-economy/a-62623738

harms said:
The main hit was taken by small businesses & entertainment industry. Plus there's a huge rise of unemployment in regions after the exodus of big international companies that had their production factories in Russia. Inflation grows quite quickly. The quality of products (from food to literally everything else) has dropped significantly. The whole economy is more or less isolated from the outside which allows Russia to retain a very favorable ruble price but they're not doing it by improving its value, they're doing it by restricting its trade.

The biggest issue is mid-to-long term effects on a more complicated production cycles. Every complicated machinery needs a steady supply of new details to keep up functioning and this supply is limited to say the least. The aviation have taken the hit earlier due to how closed off the market for those details are (and how important it is to prevent anything from happening — in other production you can risk it a bit more) — they are tearing down some planes to get details for other planes and this is not a sustainable strategy.

Plus Russia still gets an enormous amount of money from the export of energy sources which it uses to cover the ever-growing cracks in its economy but that input of cash is going to dry up pretty soon.

Here's a decent read that is still more or less readable if you translate it from Russian via google:
https://meduza.io/feature/2022/09/0...skuyu-ekonomiku-no-etogo-ne-sluchilos-pochemu

Thanks both - appreciate the replies.

It's not completely surprising, but there is a sense of bewilderment around the idea that Europe was effectively offsetting Russia's daily war costs in the initial months of the conflict.

It will be interesting to see how much the Kremlin can commit to the war going forward, especially if the likes of India continue to receive Russian oil and gas at a significant discount to what European nations were paying.

NicolaSacco · Sep 12, 2022

Simbo said:
Don’t have another tweet on it but there are strong rumours “several thousand” Russian troops are negotiating for surrender in the western Kherson region.

Let’s hope these are the well trained, well equipped troops that were sent there to stop the Kherson counterattack. Russia can replace untrained men with other untrained men within a few weeks/months, but actual career soldiers with experience of war? That can take years, a decade even in the case of the higher up officers.

tomaldinho1 · Sep 12, 2022

groovyalbert said:
Thanks both - appreciate the replies.

It's not completely surprising, but there is a sense of bewilderment around the idea that Europe was effectively offsetting Russia's daily war costs in the initial months of the conflict.

It will be interesting to see how much the Kremlin can commit to the war going forward, especially if the likes of India continue to receive Russian oil and gas at a significant discount to what European nations were paying.

I think the issue is they’ve effectively stopped releasing any figures. Excerpt from a GIS article today:

It is becoming more and more difficult to assess the state of the Russian economy because there are fewer and fewer official figures. Since April 2022, Russian authorities have stopped providing trade statistics. Data on exports, imports, the structure of capital outflow and the balance of payments are no longer published by the customs service and the central bank. The foreign trade numbers of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) are no longer accessible.

The central bank has also stopped publishing the structure of Russia’s international reserves. Since the end of March, only their total values have been updated, without detailing assets.

The government has also allowed Russian companies to refrain from publishing data until the end of 2022. The central bank first permitted banks not to disclose their main financial reporting, and later allowed all financial organizations (including non-state pension funds and insurance companies) to keep management and audit data private. In March, the Russian aviation agency stopped publishing statistics on passenger traffic.

Spark · Sep 12, 2022

NicolaSacco said:
Let’s hope these are the well trained, well equipped troops that were sent there to stop the Kherson counterattack. Russia can replace untrained men with other untrained men within a few weeks/months, but actual career soldiers with experience of war? That can take years, a decade even in the case of the higher up officers.

I'd be so surprised if they have "several thousand" well trained and organised troops anywhere in Ukraine, beyond pockets of Spetsnaz. Think they fecked it early days with that Hostomel raid and the Battle of Kyiv. Lost loads of well trained marines and other experienced troops.

Simbo · Sep 12, 2022

VorZakone said:
Can Putin still sell a success to the Russian public if they're pushed back all the way to pre-invasion borders? Technically speaking...he would still control the Donbas.

I dont think there is much chance of Ukraine stopping at 2014 borders but on Putin, he’s demonstrated such complete control that I have no reason to doubt he can say and get away with whatever he wants inside Russia.

NicolaSacco · Sep 12, 2022

Spark said:
I'd be so surprised if they have "several thousand" well trained and organised troops anywhere in Ukraine, beyond pockets of Spetsnaz. Think they fecked it early days with that Hostomel raid and the Battle of Kyiv. Lost loads of well trained marines and other experienced troops.

I may have been pushing it by calling them well trained, well equipped. I guess I just mean if they've scooped up a few thousand people wandering the streets in the Donbas and given them a rifle and a half-day training, and it's THOSE soldiers who are negotiating a surrender, then it's still good, but not great. But if it's Russian soldiers who have done their training and have some experience of the 2014-2022 conflict then it could be a real coup and might well lead to a total collapse right down to the coast. I saw somewhere that one of the negotiations may have been about laying down weapons, so i guess either way the UAF will get a lot of weaponry for free pointing at the invaders, rather than pointing at themselves.

I'd love to have your optimism regarding the current make up of the invading army; it feels very difficult to call either way.

McGrathsipan · Sep 12, 2022

what will Ukraine do with Russian POWs?

the hea · Sep 12, 2022

McGrathsipan said:
what will Ukraine do with Russian POWs?

Exchange them for Ukrainian POWs held by Russia or hold them captive until the war is over.

The Firestarter · Sep 12, 2022

McGrathsipan said:
what will Ukraine do with Russian POWs?

Use them to repair the damages these POWs inflicted.

Gehrman · Sep 12, 2022

stefan92 said:
It didn't take decades to get Western Europe back towhere it was after WW2. It will take time and money for sure, but if the rebuild is executed well it can happen much faster.

However if Ukraine stays the corrupt oligarchy it was before the war I guess you are right.

After Afghanistan, Iraq and the post covid economy, I can't see anything like the Marshall plan not to mention the america first sentiment amongst many Americans. Just can't see neither the EU or US trying finance a rebuild of Ukraine.

Abizzz · Sep 12, 2022

Gehrman said:
After Afghanistan, Iraq and the post covid economy, I can't see anything like the Marshall plan not to mention the america first sentiment amongst many Americans. Just can't see neither the EU or US trying finance a rebuild of Ukraine.

The Marshall plan was a stimulus but didn't rebuild Europe.

the hea · Sep 12, 2022

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Raoul · Sep 12, 2022

the hea said:
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Interesting. Suspect the next move will be to retake Kherson city, then eliminate the Mariupol land bridge to Crimea.

Gehrman · Sep 12, 2022

Abizzz said:
The Marshall plan was a stimulus but didn't rebuild Europe.

Yeah but I'm sure it helped

stefan92 · Sep 12, 2022

Gehrman said:
After Afghanistan, Iraq and the post covid economy, I can't see anything like the Marshall plan not to mention the america first sentiment amongst many Americans. Just can't see neither the EU or US trying finance a rebuild of Ukraine.

EU accepted Ukraine as candidate to join. EU countries support each other, so it's likely there will be some sort of funding.

We need an rvn · Sep 12, 2022

It all seems to be happening a bit too quick and a bit too easy. Doesn’t feel right

it’s a bit like the German collapse in ‘45 but that Was after 6 years and fighting the rest of Europe

I’m sure they’re getting advice and intel from the US, UK etc but still, could they be walking into a trap?

Gehrman · Sep 12, 2022

stefan92 said:
EU accepted Ukraine as candidate to join. EU countries support each other, so it's likely there will be some sort of funding.

I consider the EU candidacy mainly to be symbolic at the moment. And EU countries only support each other as much as the taxpayer is willing to. I'm not trying to be negative for the sake of it, just trying to be realist.

Maagge · Sep 12, 2022

We need an rvn said:
It all seems to be happening a bit too quick and a bit too easy. Doesn’t feel right

it’s a bit like the German collapse in ‘45 but that Was after 6 years and fighting the rest of Europe

I’m sure they’re getting advice and intel from the US, UK etc but still, could they be walking into a trap?

I think they're being advised well and are competent in general. But yeah the trick is to not take back more territory than they can realistically defend. No point overcommitting. I'm sure it's tempting to keep advancing though as it appears as if the Russians are panicking at the moment what with leaving all their stuff behind.

stefan92 · Sep 12, 2022

Gehrman said:
I consider the EU candidacy mainly to be symbolic at the moment. And EU countries only support each other as much as the taxpayer is willing to. I'm not trying to be negative for the sake of it, just trying to be realist.

Yes I get that, and I agree that's a real risk. Nonetheless I think especially as we are experiencing an economical crisis there might be interest in rebuilding Ukraine by European companies funded by European governments to kickstart their own economies again. But of course that's not guaranteed.

Abizzz · Sep 12, 2022

Gehrman said:
I consider the EU candidacy mainly to be symbolic at the moment. And EU countries only support each other as much as the taxpayer is willing to. I'm not trying to be negative for the sake of it, just trying to be realist.

According to wikipedia the Marshall plan had a total volume of 115 billion in 2021 dollars (for all of western europe, the UK being the largest recipient, but all in all pretty evenly spent over half a continent). If this source is correct a similiar amount has already been sent to Ukraine (with the US being the leading nation by a huge margin) to defeat Russia. I don't see any reason to think that the help will end abruptly when Russia is defeated.

sun_tzu · Sep 12, 2022

stefan92 said:
EU accepted Ukraine as candidate to join. EU countries support each other, so it's likely there will be some sort of funding.

Current situation is basically this

ECA loans mainly at favourable rates with long tenures from European countries
Some significant world bank aid available as well
There are some governance issue to be worked through as well as routes to market for the required civilian contractor engagement at a prime and local level

ThierryFabregas · Sep 12, 2022

Gehrman said:
I consider the EU candidacy mainly to be symbolic at the moment. And EU countries only support each other as much as the taxpayer is willing to. I'm not trying to be negative for the sake of it, just trying to be realist.

What you have to remember is that East Ukraine and Crimea have massive amounts of natural gas and oil. If Ukraine takes them back then all of Europe will be very keen to set up pipelines as replacements for the Russian ones. It maybe that this is war over the control of resources as much as it is an ideological one. In which case loads of money will go into Ukraine to start freeing up natural resources.

the hea · Sep 12, 2022

Raoul said:
Interesting. Suspect the next move will be to retake Kherson city, then eliminate the Mariupol land bridge to Crimea.

Volnovakha, 50km north of Mariupol is a interesting city worth keeping an eye on. The only railway connecting Russian occupied territory in southern Ukraine with Donbas goes through the city. If Ukaraine would regain control over it, all Russian troops in Southern Ukraine would have to be supplied through Crimea.

Raoul · Sep 12, 2022

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