Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Gehrman

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What you have to remember is that East Ukraine and Crimea have massive amounts of natural gas and oil. If Ukraine takes them back then all of Europe will be very keen to set up pipelines as replacements for the Russian ones. It maybe that this is war over the control of resources as much as it is an ideological one. In which case loads of money will go into Ukraine to start freeing up natural resources.
Its not a bad insight at all, things just tend to turn out far more complicated than most people can imagine. You would have all this together with the green parties and enviromentalists being zealous about reaching net zero. Hopefully the realists would see what the oppourtunity that you see.
 

2cents

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Volnovakha, 50km north of Mariupol is a interesting city worth keeping an eye on. The only railway connecting Russian occupied territory in southern Ukraine with Donbas goes through the city. If Ukaraine would regain control over it, all Russian troops in Southern Ukraine would have to be supplied through Crimea.
Seems to be a lot of chatter about nearby Vuhledar being the next target, which would presumably indicate plans along the line you’ve drawn.
 

Gehrman

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According to wikipedia the Marshall plan had a total volume of 115 billion in 2021 dollars (for all of western europe, the UK being the largest recipient, but all in all pretty evenly spent over half a continent). If this source is correct a similiar amount has already been sent to Ukraine (with the US being the leading nation by a huge margin) to defeat Russia. I don't see any reason to think that the help will end abruptly when Russia is defeated.
I think the problem would be a lack of trust. Meaning trust that the money will be well spent. Ukraine had a very corrupt regime before the war and in the aftermath of the war(if Ukraine win), i'm not sure there is the level of trust to open the purse strings to help rebuild Ukraine, but perhaps that's me being negative.
 

The Firestarter

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Some reports for loud explosions in several Russian cities? Rostov and several others which I dont know how to spell in English
 

Gehrman

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They're still spouting this Nazi nonsense then.
It's the only card they can play. War is always about demonizing your opponent. Even if it has no basis in reality. Like all these Nazi's choosing Zelensky, a jew, to be their leader.
 

stefan92

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Like all these Nazi's choosing Zelensky, a jew, to be their leader.
In Russia being a Nazi isn't really associated with being antisemitic, so this doesn't matter. It's mostly seen as racist anti-slavic/anti-Russian, which absolutely makes sense looking at how the Nazis acted in the East.

It's a Western perception that the Nazis were only antisemites.
 

nimic

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In Russia being a Nazi isn't really associated with being antisemitic, so this doesn't matter. It's mostly seen as racist anti-slavic/anti-Russian, which absolutely makes sense looking at how the Nazis acted in the East.

It's a Western perception that the Nazis were only antisemites.
It's not associated with antisemitism because the Soviet Union leadership specifically made the decision to cover it with a more general hate for Slavs. The Nazis were definitely anti-Slav, and had some awful plans in that respect, but obviously there's no doubt that they had a special hatred for the Jews.

I don't really see how it's a western perception at all that they were only antisemites.
 

Spark

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In Russia being a Nazi isn't really associated with being antisemitic, so this doesn't matter. It's mostly seen as racist anti-slavic/anti-Russian, which absolutely makes sense looking at how the Nazis acted in the East.

It's a Western perception that the Nazis were only antisemites.
I mean it doesn’t make sense because their whole anti-Russian thing was based on the Soviet Union being a Jewish plot. They acted in the East from a purely antisemitic point of view, it’s just that they had little regard for anyone else. The largest Jewish congregations were in the East within the Liebensraum.

Appreciate that the term “Nazi” in Russia has evolved to mean anyone anti-Russian but that’s from a purely nationalistic sense and because of the fact that antisemitism is extremely rife in Russia. Therefore the need arises to disassociate your greatest ever enemy with a policy that many in power ultimately agree with/don’t have an issue with (e.g. Wagner Group).
 

Spark

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It's not associated with antisemitism because the Soviet Union leadership specifically made the decision to cover it with a more general hate for Slavs. The Nazis were definitely anti-Slav, and had some awful plans in that respect, but obviously there's no doubt that they had a special hatred for the Jews.

I don't really see how it's a western perception at all that they were only antisemites.
Yeah, it’s definitely not.
 

stefan92

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It's not associated with antisemitism because the Soviet Union leadership specifically made the decision to cover it with a more general hate for Slavs. The Nazis were definitely anti-Slav, and had some awful plans in that respect, but obviously there's no doubt that they had a special hatred for the Jews.

I don't really see how it's a western perception at all that they were only antisemites.
Maybe I didn't phrase it the right way... the point is that the occupied peoples in the West were generally viewed as more or less equal, as long as they weren't Jewish, homosexual, communist or part part other political, sexual or ethnic minorities.

In the East the Nazis treated everyone as a lesser human, some more than others, but still everyone. It's much easier there to not make the Nazi actions about minorities, but about everyone, and therefore it's easy there to simply associate Nazi = anti-Russian. In that sense the word survived and is used for todays Ukraine.
 

Carolina Red

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Maybe I didn't phrase it the right way... the point is that the occupied peoples in the West were generally viewed as more or less equal, as long as they weren't Jewish, homosexual, communist or part part other political, sexual or ethnic minorities.

In the East the Nazis treated everyone as a lesser human, some more than others, but still everyone. It's much easier there to not make the Nazi actions about minorities, but about everyone, and therefore it's easy there to simply associate Nazi = anti-Russian. In that sense the word survived and is used for todays Ukraine.
Which is still crazy on the part of the Russians, since the Nazis hated Slavs, and the Ukrainians are… Slavs.
 

nimic

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Maybe I didn't phrase it the right way... the point is that the occupied peoples in the West were generally viewed as more or less equal, as long as they weren't Jewish, homosexual, communist or part part other political, sexual or ethnic minorities.

In the East the Nazis treated everyone as a lesser human, some more than others, but still everyone. It's much easier there to not make the Nazi actions about minorities, but about everyone, and therefore it's easy there to simply associate Nazi = anti-Russian. In that sense the word survived and is used for todays Ukraine.
Oh yeah I see, that's fair.
 

stefan92

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Which is still crazy on the part of the Russians, since the Nazis hated Slavs, and the Ukrainians are… Slavs.
And yet there were in fact Ukrainians who wanted to collaborate with Nazis to get rid of the Soviets after the Holodomor (the group around Stepan Bandera). While he was killed by the Nazis, he still is viewed as a Nazi himself both in Russia as well as in the German perception. So there absolutely were Ukrainian Nazis in WW2 that were the enemy of the Russians and they simply act like the Ukrainians still follow that way.

That's not even totally unjustified as several Ukrainian politicians and diplomats actually see Bandera as a kind of heroic figure, for example Andriy Melnyk, who was until a few weeks ago ambassador in Germany. Putin calling for denazification of a country that sends someone accused of being a Nazi as ambassador for Germany definitely was great for Putin's propaganda.
 

Carolina Red

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And yet there were in fact Ukrainians who wanted to collaborate with Nazis to get rid of the Soviets after the Holodomor (the group around Stepan Bandera).
I know, which adds to the craziness of that whole situation.
Putin calling for denazification of a country that sends someone accused of being a Nazi as ambassador for Germany definitely was great for Putin's propaganda.
He's definitely been very opportunistic with his use of the term and the width of the brush he paints with.
 

ThierryFabregas

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And yet there were in fact Ukrainians who wanted to collaborate with Nazis to get rid of the Soviets after the Holodomor (the group around Stepan Bandera). While he was killed by the Nazis, he still is viewed as a Nazi himself both in Russia as well as in the German perception. So there absolutely were Ukrainian Nazis in WW2 that were the enemy of the Russians and they simply act like the Ukrainians still follow that way.

That's not even totally unjustified as several Ukrainian politicians and diplomats actually see Bandera as a kind of heroic figure, for example Andriy Melnyk, who was until a few weeks ago ambassador in Germany. Putin calling for denazification of a country that sends someone accused of being a Nazi as ambassador for Germany definitely was great for Putin's propaganda.
Well given the Ukrainian's treatment by the Russian Soviet's it is natural they hoped they could ally themselves with another military they were hopefull would be more sympathetic to their cause. Ultimately they had no idea the Nazi's would be even worse.
 

ThierryFabregas

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Its not a bad insight at all, things just tend to turn out far more complicated than most people can imagine. You would have all this together with the green parties and enviromentalists being zealous about reaching net zero. Hopefully the realists would see what the oppourtunity that you see.
Well I predict after the incoming recession, electricity blackouts, energy price driven poverty and hyper inflation Western Europe will be dropping it's collective panties for Ukrainian energy if it can get it. Public outcry will be too strong
 

NotThatSoph

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Well given the Ukrainian's treatment by the Russian Soviet's it is natural they hoped they could ally themselves with another military they were hopefull would be more sympathetic to their cause. Ultimately they had no idea the Nazi's would be even worse.
The Bandera camp were fascists. It wasn't some "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" stuff, there were clear political differences, but also alignment on stuff like racial purity, ethnic cleansing and antisemitism.
 

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I must say huge credit to the Biden administration for the contribution Ukraine has received, one can only imagine how this would have panned out under Trump.
 

Raoul

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I must say huge credit to the Biden administration for the contribution Ukraine has received, one can only imagine how this would have panned out under Trump.
100% . Biden going all in created a tacit permission structure for the rest of NATO and EU to do the same. This would've been a proper mess had Trump been involved.
 

Simbo

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For anyone interested, there is a twitter space being ran under @MriyaReport covering the goings on in Ukraine. It's much higher quality than the old one, Walter Report, better speakers and less weirdo's being allowing on asking daft questions. Its 24/7 while there's a lot of activity.

Just been listening to Ben Hodges answering questions and offering his insight on my drive home, former commanding general of US Army in Europe. He's still on.
 

massi83

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I must say huge credit to the Biden administration for the contribution Ukraine has received, one can only imagine how this would have panned out under Trump.
That's the least he could do after provoking the war in the first place!
 

calodo2003

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I must say huge credit to the Biden administration for the contribution Ukraine has received, one can only imagine how this would have panned out under Trump.
Conceivably we would not have helped Ukraine at all if Trump was still in charge.
 

devilish

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Now its the time for NATO to accept Ukraine within its family. Putin would have no choice but to pull his men out of Ukraine and it would spare him the humiliation of being defeated by a country which the Russian consider militarily inferior
 

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Zeihan says that the Ukrainians just captured more Russian military equipment from Izyum than NATO has transferred to them during the entire conflict.

It's the biggest transfer of arms since WWII.

 

sun_tzu

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Given the scale of the advances I wonder if Ukraine has the logistics and supply lines to sustain this

As counter intuitive as it may be consolidation of the advances might be more logical than continuing with what has been a very successful advance
 

mariachi-19

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Given the scale of the advances I wonder if Ukraine has the logistics and supply lines to sustain this

As counter intuitive as it may be consolidation of the advances might be more logical than continuing with what has been a very successful advance
The US and the rest of NATO will see to it that they do. This is just proxy war now and the the former parties will see it as a great way now to damage any military power Russia has left.

In affect creating a toothless tiger…