Çağlar Söyüncü - Leicester's 'Diamond in the rough'...

Ekeke

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I don't think anyone is saying we are content, a quick defender to win the league is required.

You keep going on about this 17/18 season. If we played like that all season, I am sure we would beat that record, the fact that we defended with 6 men back line, 3 in midfield and 1 up top.

Jose does not attack. It is completely pointless comparing 2 different playing styles. We still attack when we are 1-0, a Jose team would shut up shop.
We were failing to attack before we signed Bruno Fernandes too
 

romufc

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We were failing to attack before we signed Bruno Fernandes too
Not because lack of trying, it was a clear lack of quality.

Jose had alot of quality at his disposal.

I could also compare DDG form to then when he probably saved 1/2 goals per game. Now he is lucky to have 1/2 shots against him.
 

Ekeke

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Not because lack of trying, it was a clear lack of quality.

Jose had alot of quality at his disposal.

I could also compare DDG form to then when he probably saved 1/2 goals per game. Now he is lucky to have 1/2 shots against him.
He average 2.4 shots saved a game so thats an underestimation

We had the same problem we've had for years, our attack wasnt anywhere near as sharp as it should be. The only difference with Ole is we have mania, severe highs of form and severe lows of form. We're currently in a high having been through a low for the majority of the season.

Bruno and Greenwood have been sharp in attack since Jan and since the restart. We have the 2 players we've been missing for many seasons in attack
 

Classical Mechanic

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Yeah it predicted covid, good one
Eh, their form nosedived 3 months before Covid. Me and a few other posters were talking about this way back in November

https://www.redcafe.net/threads/leicester-city-19-20.449554/page-4

I did this prediction on Vardy using xG at the time.

What the stats tell you about Vardy is that he if continues scoring at his current rate then he'll hit about 35 goals. xG tells you that he'd be outperforming the mean from the quality of his chances created by about 18 if he continues like this to the end of the season. I don't recall a player ever scoring more than 10 (Messi) than xG predicted for them.

His xG only predicts him to score 22 if he reverted to the mean from now on from the chances Leicester are creating for him currently, which would take him back to match his best performance against the mean previously. It's not impossible for him to continue this vein of form but it's exceptionally unlikely.

Vardy's best performance against the mean was +5 (rounded) in 17/18 so if he repeated that he'd hit 21 - 22. If he could match Kane's (+9) or Messi's (+10) best performance against the mean then he'd hit 25 -27.

So unless Leicester improve their chance creation significantly or Vardy has the most remarkable season by a striker in the last 6 years then it wouldn't be sensible to bet on him hitting 30. I think the sensible estimate would be 22 - 27.

Any corrections or data for other xG models welcome.

Source

https://understat.com/player/755
 

Ekeke

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So just for context, Leicester's 2 best players this season have been available for just 2.5 of their 7 matches back since lockdown. They havent spent heavily on having a squad of players.

We obviously missed Pogba this season, but nowhere near as much as Leicester miss Ricardo Pereira and James Maddison
 

romufc

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He average 2.4 shots saved a game so thats an underestimation

We had the same problem we've had for years, our attack wasnt anywhere near as sharp as it should be. The only difference with Ole is we have mania, severe highs of form and severe lows of form. We're currently in a high having been through a low for the majority of the season.

Bruno and Greenwood have been sharp in attack since Jan and since the restart. We have the 2 players we've been missing for many seasons in attack
We have been missing players for the past 7 years, Ole within a year has resolved that. Jose had the chance to resolve it too, but didnt.

The difference is, with Jose we never had a severe high form mania, it was mostly crap defensive low block football.

If you want evidence, Sevilla game in his 2nd season in charge.
 

Inigo Montoya

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Thread has gone crazy. He made an error and he kicked out. Guess who has done that before - Beckham, Rooney, Keane...

Maguire made a mistake recently too
True, but it's in the Caf nature to laugh at our rivals' brain farts.
 

Classical Mechanic

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So just for context, Leicester's 2 best players this season have been available for just 2.5 of their 7 matches back since lockdown. They havent spent heavily on having a squad of players.

We obviously missed Pogba this season, but nowhere near as much as Leicester miss Ricardo Pereira and James Maddison
I always predicted that they'd make the CL because of how far ahead they'd got and because of how inconsistent the sides under them were. Yes there have been compounding issues for them and United have got a lot better since Bruno signed. If they don't make the CL it will be the biggest capitulation since King Kev's Newcastle back in the day.
 

Jimmy Skitz

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I always predicted that they'd make the CL because of how far ahead they'd got and because of how inconsistent the sides under them were. Yes there have been compounding issues for them and United have got a lot better since Bruno signed. If they don't make the CL it will be the biggest capitulation since King Kev's Newcastle back in the day.
and that's why there is a group of Leicester fans wanting Rodgers sacked, its the capitulation that is so concerning, I'm sure there are many saying what do Leicester fans expect but context matters, we looked nailed on with 9 games to go now we need to win all 3 of our remaining games to make sure we cling on. We lived through this under Peter Taylor, were at the top 6 and looking to push on and stay in that area of the table then collapsed and waited too long and it cost us premier league football the following season, no one would expect us to be relegated I wouldn't think but a slump like this can last a long time if changes aren't made either in the squad, tactics or the manager.
 

Classical Mechanic

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and that's why there is a group of Leicester fans wanting Rodgers sacked, its the capitulation that is so concerning, I'm sure there are many saying what do Leicester fans expect but context matters, we looked nailed on with 9 games to go now we need to win all 3 of our remaining games to make sure we cling on. We lived through this under Peter Taylor, were at the top 6 and looking to push on and stay in that area of the table then collapsed and waited too long and it cost us premier league football the following season, no one would expect us to be relegated I wouldn't think but a slump like this can last a long time if changes aren't made either in the squad, tactics or the manager.
He does seem like a momentum manager but I'd stick with him. Europa would probably be a better competition for Leicester anyway. You need more depth admittedly but if you can keep most of the team together and get a few signings in you can continue to build.
 

Jimmy Skitz

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He does seem like a momentum manager but I'd stick with him. Europa would probably be a better competition for Leicester anyway. You need more depth admittedly but if you can keep most of the team together and get a few signings in you can continue to build.
I'm leaning the same way, stick with him and Europa could be a better competition for us, but I cannot argue with fans that feel more strongly for the reasons I gave and more performances like yesterday will see me swing to the sack him side. One thing we must not do is sell anyone that is first choice, we need more depth.

Our fans keep saying Chilwell is the most replaceable but that's simply not true we would not be able to get an equivalent left back for money that would make selling Chilwell worth while and we already need another left back, Fuchs is 34 and cannot offer enough going forward so we need someone that can back up and compete with Chilwell
 

Robbie Boy

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I still remember the argument with Wolves fan here, he said the have better players, so I asked simple question. If you guys have better players, you guys are still below us in the table. Does that mean Ole is much better manager than Nuno?

His reply was "lol yeah hope Manutd retain Ole for long time"

People don't understand the level of expectations. Wolves players playing the same way for ManUtd would mean they are not good enough, same for many Leicester players.

https://www.redcafe.net/threads/is-...utd-are-right-now.452944/page-2#post-25211285

Check this link.
Aye, it was crazy. Yes, we were grossly underperforming at the time but to actually suggested either Leicester or Wolves had better players than us was just crazy.
 

NinjaZombie

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Aye, it was crazy. Yes, we were grossly underperforming at the time but to actually suggested either Leicester or Wolves had better players than us was just crazy.
I like the idea of Wolves and Leicester having excellent teams and breaking the hegemony, but the way their fans run their mouths like they've done it for years kind of ruins it.
 

Jimmy Skitz

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he was awful last night, as most were, but it should be noticed Newcastle were targeting the channel between him and Albrighton, who completely abandoned him defensively meaning he was never sure if he should go wide or stay central, Luke Thomas provides much better defensive help and should have come into the team if we were sticking with a back 3 when Evans pulled out pre match
 

Classical Mechanic

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An upgrade on Maguire they said...
You've had Leicester fans claiming all three of their centre backs are better than Maguire yet their goals against column suggests otherwise. They've conceded 8 more than us. If you discount the first three games for both teams when we conceded about 1/3 of our goals for the season after having no pre-season, then they've conceded 12 more than us or 50% more. Their xGA is 9th best in the Premier League. Bit of a mid table defence really.
 

Jimmy Skitz

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You've had Leicester fans claiming all three of their centre backs are better than Maguire yet their goals against column suggests otherwise. They've conceded 8 more than us. If you discount the first three games for both teams when we conceded about 1/3 of our goals for the season after having no pre-season, then they've conceded 12 more than us or 50% more. Their xGA is 9th best in the Premier League. Bit of a mid table defence really.
no we say they are better than Maguire was for us, unless you are saying he hasn't improved with you?
 

Ekeke

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You've had Leicester fans claiming all three of their centre backs are better than Maguire yet their goals against column suggests otherwise. They've conceded 8 more than us. If you discount the first three games for both teams when we conceded about 1/3 of our goals for the season after having no pre-season, then they've conceded 12 more than us or 50% more. Their xGA is 9th best in the Premier League. Bit of a mid table defence really.
We play 2 DMs and have AWB who is a miles better defender than their fullbacks. When they play 3 at the back and we rarely do anything but 2 its different too. So its not a straight comparison like you want it to be

That said Soyuncu hasnt been as good this season coming back from injury as he was last season. Thats for sure. But he'd obviously be doing much better with AWB playing next to him
 

cyberman

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We play 2 DMs and have AWB who is a miles better defender than their fullbacks. When they play 3 at the back and we rarely do anything but 2 its different too. So its not a straight comparison like you want it to be

That said Soyuncu hasnt been as good this season coming back from injury as he was last season. Thats for sure. But he'd obviously be doing much better with AWB playing next to him
We dont play with DMs
 

cyberman

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We play with 2
Not DMs though. Scott is box to box and Fred is everywhere. Its the reason people say we need Rice just to have a DM.
We play with a midfield 2, others play with a 3. That doesnt add up to our defence getting more protection but having 1 less in midfield and Bruno pushed up means we are the second highest scorers in the league.
Add in Shaw and AWB basically living in the opposition byline and it becomes stupidly clear Maguire doesnt get extra protection from our set up
 

Ekeke

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Not DMs though. Scott is box to box and Fred is everywhere. Its the reason people say we need Rice just to have a DM.
We play with a midfield 2, others play with a 3. That doesnt add up to our defence getting more protection but having 1 less in midfield and Bruno pushed up means we are the second highest scorers in the league.
Add in Shaw and AWB basically living in the opposition byline and it becomes stupidly clear Maguire doesnt get extra protection from our set up
They play DM they just arent everything you'd want from a DM sitting in front of your defence. They play the position, they dont have the strict defensive qualities
 

Sandikan

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no we say they are better than Maguire was for us, unless you are saying he hasn't improved with you?
Come on son, this is madnes.

Come on pal. He was superb at Leicester, hence coming to ours and City's attention.
He hasn't improved for us, he's kept the same top level, just without the mad runs he did at Leicester.
 

Jimmy Skitz

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Come on son, this is madnes.

Come on pal. He was superb at Leicester, hence coming to ours and City's attention.
He hasn't improved for us, he's kept the same top level, just without the mad runs he did at Leicester.
if Maguire hasn't improved at all with you then that says a lot about your coaches, he should be improving naturally just with experience, then add in the coaches a club like United should have means he should be a lot better now then he was with us
 

TheReligion

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if Maguire hasn't improved at all with you then that says a lot about your coaches, he should be improving naturally just with experience, then add in the coaches a club like United should have means he should be a lot better now then he was with us
He is
 

Jimmy Skitz

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tell that to the guy I replied to, in the opinion of most Leicester fans Soyuncu has been better for us then Maguire was, that's what we have said, Maguire was very good for us, Soyuncu has had higher peaks but also lower valleys
 

TheReligion

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tell that to the guy I replied to, in the opinion of most Leicester fans Soyuncu has been better for us then Maguire was, that's what we have said, Maguire was very good for us, Soyuncu has had higher peaks but also lower valleys
That's fine. You're clearly happy with him and we are delighted with Maguire.

Everyone's happy.
 

Harry190

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You know that other dude who plays with him for Turkey? The one some were swooning over when Juventus signed him. Demiral. He is quite bad.