if only it was that simple
i may start a thread called "there's no way Biden can win this election"
but to be honest, if it was that simple the thread i would be starting is "there's no way Margot Robbie will suck my cock", feck the USA election
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik and Imran hold a long overdue conversation about United's awful league form with 1 win in 7. They discuss a disappointing draw at Bournemouth, a not so disappointing draw against Liverpool and a crushing defeat at Chelsea - Is time nearly over for Erik Ten Hag?
Then in a special second half of the pod, Nik welcomes Natalie ( https://twitter.com/natalie_17) to discuss the fortunes of Manchester United Women as they booked a place in the FA Cup Final after a historic first ever win vs. Chelsea.
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i may start a thread called "there's no way Biden can win this election"
but to be honest, if it was that simple the thread i would be starting is "there's no way Margot Robbie will suck my cock", feck the USA election
Buttigieg did this in the primaries. Another prick
In what form though? I’m trying to imagine what that would look like.
Mass demonstrations by armed white folks and then what? Ok, so maybe they get into it with LE; that’d be a sight.
Most normal people would know to give them a wide berth so would it look like when they went into the state building in Michigan?
Yeah, kinda this. I don't think his militias are going to decide anything. Most gun toting militia types I met down south were beer guzzling cowards. The only way I see it working is if it allows SCOTUS to decide something and to use a "for the good of the country" line of reasoning.
When do they start giving the results? Sorry its a silly question but I'm trying to know when the best time is to tune in from UK and I know the system there isn't the same as here
Around 1 in the morning UK time would probably get you some early results.
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I’m taking Wednesday off so will stay up and watch all night Tuesday. I think it’s usually very late uk/Ireland time before we get a good idea, maybe 4am-5am?
This is actually shocking. Some sort of Mandela effect type phenomenon.
If there is a 100+ Biden EC win, you will see it very early.
If Biden is winning back voters in rural/suburban FL, it is game over.
The median outcome is nothing gets decided and we rumble on for a while.
If Biden is winning back voters in rural/suburban FL, it is game over.
The median outcome is nothing gets decided and we rumble on for a while.
Don’t think any of them are truly coordinated nationwide, but you could definitely see some instances of what happened in Michigan.
Probably more possible would be direct attacks against lower level democratic candidates, state elections, that sort of thing. Any current democratic senator, governor, or congressperson has undoubtedly beefed up their security since all the assassination plots have become publicized.
Wouldn’t be surprised if some high profile martyrdom instances occurred & wouldn’t shed one tear when they were put down efficiently.
If you're looking for consistent, non-hypocritical messaging from the GOP, then I think you'd better not hold your breath.
They take it one election at a time. Make up shit to win now, make up other shit to win next time. Their voters don't seem to care anyway.
Trump would wake up on election day and piss in his bog without hitting the sides and claim victory.
Listen, when you bring high quality banter, expertise, and well, just downright amazing content to the people this is what happens.
I actually think his end game here isn’t just to steal the election, it’s an insurance policy for the scenario where he loses. He wants to make even the notion of charging him with a crime something that is so politically sensitive with potentially volatile results, essentially resulting in domestic terrorism, that both state and federal justices question whether there would be any net benefit in doing so. He will essentially challenge them to make a martyr of him.
I’m not saying they would essentially fall for his play, but I think that’s what he’s playing at here. It’s why he’s riling up the Proud Boys, Biker gangs, white supremacists and all the general pond life around America. He wants chaos if he loses.
I’m not saying they would essentially fall for his play, but I think that’s what he’s playing at here. It’s why he’s riling up the Proud Boys, Biker gangs, white supremacists and all the general pond life around America. He wants chaos if he loses.
Absolutely no chance of that.
I was a looking for the "temp not a desparate man" DiCaprio and found these instead. I only know of Biden.
Honestly, if they do steal an election this way I really hope the "left" side will rise up and burn this motherfecker down.
I'm not sure. I doubt there's any grand strategy. But it might allow him to send paramilitary police type folks to the different states, and perhaps interfere.
I honestly don't believe either civil unrest or the courts are going to decide the election, but it could turn real nasty for folks on the ground. Then you have the issue of 3 months of Trump unleashed....
Don’t think the state of NY cares much. That’s where he will be taken to task criminally.
of 100+ Sure there is. It's more probable than Biden hits 370+ than Trump hits 270.
Don’t hold your breath on that.
Nimic gave you a like so he's been watching you like an adoring father since the newbies. I've given you three like a creepy stalker.
Maybe I’m too cynical, but a fairly narrow EC victory seems most likely to me.
I don't see it being in the public [or national security] interest to prosecute him. More than likely they tell him to feck off to one of his international golf clubs or something whilst the CIA keep an eagle eye on him.
Stockholm Syndrome
Not saying it will happen by the way, but it's definitely a possibility. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ If you look at the first pretty graph, you see all the modeled outcomes. More than 2/3 show a +100 Biden win.You are definitely too cynical, and like most , probably still hanging onto 2016. The polls all show him winning many key states by clear margins, and it's a completely different world now.
Was that the same last time? Or has that changed?
I don't think he's that shrewd or tactical. Obviously if he loses, he will have to pay back a ridiculous amount of money to his lenders and deal with a litany of lawsuits and congressional hearings related to the orgy of corruption he presided over while in office. Being President largely shields him from a vast majority of that, as well as potential criminal liability. That's what all of this is about at the end of the day - self-preservation.
To all the folk overseas that want to see the election results coming in; typically the US media won’t “call” east coast states until polls close in CA, which is normally 8pm PST (4am Wednesday, UK time). They do this so not to influence people that haven’t yet voted in CA.
They don’t seem to care about Hawaii mind you, but that’s a tiny state anyway.
So my point is you might be in for a long night.
They don’t seem to care about Hawaii mind you, but that’s a tiny state anyway.
So my point is you might be in for a long night.
Perhaps from a national perspective you may be correct, but I don’t think the NY AG or the SDNY (once it’s purged of all Trumpism) will give two fecks what Washington or the nation wants.I don't see it being in the public [or national security] interest to prosecute him. More than likely they tell him to feck off to one of his international golf clubs or something whilst the CIA keep an eagle eye on him.
Stockholm Syndrome
I'm still bricking it as well. Until it's announced that Biden has won I'll have my doubts. 2016 scared me even though it was the perfect storm.
Nah it’s not 2016 at all, it’s an expectation of GOP voter suppression and mass not counting of ballots.
Rado is not being cynical.
RCP/538 modeling using polls misses two things
1. First derivative matters. While PA and WI have stayed stable, quite a few states have tightened in Trump's favor (OH, IA, AZ). This is generally a really bad sign. Momentum matters a lot in elections in the era of social media and this is a phenomena consistently observed in larger democracies around the world.
2. The shy Trump voter. Models have tried to correct for this, but one of the only pollsters to catch this in 2016 claims that he is still seeing his (2-3 swing in favor of Trump when people are asked whom they think their neighbour is going to vote for, instead of themselves).
I think there is some amount of unfounded optimism in the mainstream media.
Now, there is one factor which is breaking in Biden's favour.
The second wave of Covid is hitting hard and Trump is correctly associated as being unable to control it.
RCP/538 modeling using polls misses two things
1. First derivative matters. While PA and WI have stayed stable, quite a few states have tightened in Trump's favor (OH, IA, AZ). This is generally a really bad sign. Momentum matters a lot in elections in the era of social media and this is a phenomena consistently observed in larger democracies around the world.
2. The shy Trump voter. Models have tried to correct for this, but one of the only pollsters to catch this in 2016 claims that he is still seeing his (2-3 swing in favor of Trump when people are asked whom they think their neighbour is going to vote for, instead of themselves).
I think there is some amount of unfounded optimism in the mainstream media.
Now, there is one factor which is breaking in Biden's favour.
The second wave of Covid is hitting hard and Trump is correctly associated as being unable to control it.
I'm pretty sure they won't, but I'm also pretty sure that Washington won't let it get that far. He'll be an ex president with a big mouth, able to destroy huge assets and intelligence whenever he opens it. And zero way to control that in state procedings/jails. Additionally his proud boys and the like will be clamouring for nastiness. It'd just be a horrible situation. They'd be better off disappearing him to Diego Garcia or the like than allowing that to happen. There's surely some way to stop states prosecuting due to national security? Maybe @Charlie Foley knows.
It’s amazing with all the anti-Trump rhetoric in here that all I am seeing today in terms of ads in this thread is a republican ad of ‘Socialism’ dominos falling over towards the one ‘Freedom’ domino & a VAR-ish line labeled ‘Republican Victory’ is the only thing standing in the way of a socialist Armageddon.
I mean, feck, I don't think there’s too many undecideds in here, the algorithms could probably find better places to run this ad, no?
I mean, feck, I don't think there’s too many undecideds in here, the algorithms could probably find better places to run this ad, no?
1. OH and AZ haven't tightened, at least not demonstrably so. There are some arguments that IA has. Momentum matters when there are many undecided, and everybody is going to vote on polling day. I disagree with almost everything in this sentence.
2. There's no evidence of this either.
Hence the optimism.
Can’t speak for other areas but the voting stations have been open for a few days now and the two that are near me are very quiet every time I go by. I see notices on my neighbourhood feed asking people to come to the stations (other ones also near me ) as they are super quiet too.
So, either 1) a lot of people have already voted or 2) they’re leaving it to the last minute.
I’d say maybe it’s the former. We’ll see.
So, either 1) a lot of people have already voted or 2) they’re leaving it to the last minute.
I’d say maybe it’s the former. We’ll see.
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