Betting odds overwhelmingly favoured Hillary and Remain. They follow the polls and irrational human impulse. They are not an accurate gauge of anything.
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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Trying to engage the young vote.
Ireland Baldwin uses 'I Voted' stickers as makeshift pasties in series of topless Instagram snapshots... as she stresses that 'voting is cool'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowb...ted-stickers-makeshift-pasties-Instagram.html
Ireland Baldwin uses 'I Voted' stickers as makeshift pasties in series of topless Instagram snapshots... as she stresses that 'voting is cool'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowb...ted-stickers-makeshift-pasties-Instagram.html
Good to see the Daily Mail focusing primarily on the el/rection there.
They are also heavily manipulated. A couple of days ago on the site I bet on Biden getting 390+ EV was the shortest at 3.50, someone clearly dumped a bunch of cash in there to entice the gullibles to bet there, today it went all the way to 5.50 while the consensus option was down from 7.00 last week to 5.00 atm.
We’re potentiabout to hear breaking news of an Israel-Sudan diplomatic breakthrough.
Breathless.
This could have sealed the NPP for Trump.
Breathless.
This could have sealed the NPP for Trump.
If the best people can say about Biden is he didn't look worse than Trump then shouldn't that be a concern? The whole premise is people will vote for him because anyone is better than Trump...so surely he should be clearing that bar easily.
Over where?!
Yeah but Trump said "maybe" Abraham lincoln did more to blacks than he did else no one has done more. He is the least racist person in the room. He got exposed with his ukrain/china dealings. He got exposed over the dealings with coronavirus.
When biden said "teachers don't worry only some of you may die". Thought it was a good line as well.
Again, I seem to be the only one who felt this way so I'm probably wrong but genuinely thought Trump looked weak and like he didn't really wanna be there.
This is how I felt about Trump regarding yesterday's debate.
I think people used to get excited about Trump's "crazy" and "non political" behavior on stage. It was a 'fresh breath of air' for some. Yesterday, I feel like even Trump was over it and beyond the populist charismatic leader there is nothing left but old republican policies.
Almost feels like a play that has run its course and people are ready to move on. I again am predicting a massive drop in Trumps popularity after the debate.
It doesn’t really matter either way at this point. Over 50m have already voted and there was nothing in last night’s debate that would sway anyone to change their minds.
You think there'll be 100m mail-in ballots alone? There were only 139m ballots of any kind in 2016.
Is 100m your own estimate, or is that what the pollsters are predicting?
What's the expression again? Any news is good news? Something like that is the idea, I guess...
Yeah, I read about this last week. It's US condition for the lifting of its sanctions on Sudan. (Which were related to supporting terrorism and have in reality already been obsolete for ages.) It's clever planning to have all these diplomatic deals between Israel and other countries in the area come through in the election period, although I suppose people who care most about that (mostly evangelicals) are voting Trump anyway.
Agreed that it won't have much of an impact, but shouldn't it be considered pretty good evidence that all the concerns about Biden that were casually dismissed in spring were a bit more substantative than people hoped? The bar wasn't set very high for him and it looks like people are lowering it even further, just as he's about to take the reigns. Surely there's a point where lowering standards for the country's leader at some point becomes counterproductive and even dangerous?
Nah, I dunno. Even if Biden has raging dementia (which he hasn’t) he’d still be better than Trump. He might lose his train of thought sometimes, but I’m certain he’s going to have competent people around himself that he’ll listen to instead of ranting on Twitter.
Not ideal, I agree, but we live in unprecedented times.
Hard to say, but its only going to accelerate over the next few days as more states open up their early voting setups, which when combined with mail-in, could make it get to 100.
What worries me is, I can still see him winning.
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The 50m figure includes both mail-in ballots and in-person early votes.
Covid also probably means more Democrats will request mail in ballots than 2016, while Republicans will be even more keen to vote on Election Day since Trump has been drumming up conspiracies about mail in ballots being tampered with for months now.
Btw, it's interesting to compare 2020 with 538's prognosis from 2016 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Accounting for the difference in Election Day dates the corresponding day in 2016 to today would be 28th of October 2016 which had Clinton at 81.5% likely. That's eerily similar to Biden's 87/87% today, however, fast forward three days she was down to 75% which would be this monday in 2020. I doubt we'll see Biden drop off a cliff like that in the next few days.
Edit: I guess "today" is Comey Day as well which obviously could explain that drop.
Link your "research" first and we can break it down later.
Here is the response from allegedly reasonable people.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...BMAF6BAgIEAE&usg=AOvVaw3OaZPgQvs6yddN8jCo1Bjb
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...BMAF6BAgIEAE&usg=AOvVaw3OaZPgQvs6yddN8jCo1Bjb
Its interesting to compare them side by side since Biden is up roughly the same in terms of 538's percentage of winning on this date 4 years ago. The obvious caveats being that there will not be an October surprise, Russian interference is expected and largely mitigated, far more people have voted early this time, and we've had the benefit of having watched Trump in action for the past four years.
Btw, it's interesting to compare 2020 with 538's prognosis from 2016 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Accounting for the difference in Election Day dates the corresponding day in 2016 to today would be 28th of October 2016 which had Clinton at 81.5% likely. That's eerily similar to Biden's 87/87% today, however, fast forward three days she was down to 75% which would be this monday in 2020. I doubt we'll see Biden drop off a cliff like that in the next few days.
Edit: I guess "today" is Comey Day as well which obviously could explain that drop.
Is it mitigated? Or encouraged?
That's what I'm worried about. I think Trump loses a fair vote by a mile, but can win through voter suppression and outside help that they've no interest in stopping.
I must say that now (as someone neutral in all this) i really want Trump's win. I mean, he is a clown and i would never want him as my president but hypocrisy of left wing in USA is amazing. They call themselves liberals, democrats, tolerant, modern etc.. but they "attack" people who support Trump like those people are public enemies. Classic double standard. "You can think and do what you want but only if it is like we think and do."
This week Chris Pratt is abused on social media just because he doesn't want to give support to Biden. Wtf? Isn't main idea of liberals to accept and respect free thinking and free will?
What a hypocrisy
This week Chris Pratt is abused on social media just because he doesn't want to give support to Biden. Wtf? Isn't main idea of liberals to accept and respect free thinking and free will?
What a hypocrisy
You're right, calling people mean names is on par with racism, abuse of power, corruption, stripping people of healthcare, etc. If only we had used kind words.
To be fair, they literally are. This is not about politics, this is about something far greater.
"I want Trump to win and cause the lives of millions of people to be made hell and deliberately affected negatively for at least four more years and potentially decades to come, because not being welcoming to those who support a racist, sexist, bigoted, anti-science, pro conspiracy, corrupt piece of shit is just mean."
You can't compare the 2016 to the 2020 538 models, they are different. @owlo may have more insight into this and can correct me but I think Clinton would have a lower probability to win if back-testing with the 2020 538 model. So Biden's lead is more impressive than it initially seems.
Btw, it's interesting to compare 2020 with 538's prognosis from 2016 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Accounting for the difference in Election Day dates the corresponding day in 2016 to today would be 28th of October 2016 which had Clinton at 81.5% likely. That's eerily similar to Biden's 87/87% today, however, fast forward three days she was down to 75% which would be this monday in 2020. I doubt we'll see Biden drop off a cliff like that in the next few days.
Edit: I guess "today" is Comey Day as well which obviously could explain that drop.
I see, thanks. That is certainly even more encouraging!
Awesome, glad you can't vote so you're seeking dream of an American Civil War mk2 will not come to fruition, where the American dream is still stuck in the 1950s as is the Republicans future for energy which still seems to be stuck at fossil fuels and "clean coal" whilst getting rid of all the incentives for actual cleaner energy that are apparently cancer windmachines which indirectly (or directly, depends how you look at it) contributes to the nation's devasting climate change all the while having the modern day Andrew Jackson at the helm.
All that and you finish with the word hypocrisy.
RedCafe serving only the hottest of takes on this cold October evening.
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Hey, as i said, it is my opinion as an outsider. Exactly because i am not American i don't go in any direct conversation about those two. Because who am i to say to someone who lives in USA, that one is better than the other.
But tell me; you mentioned civil war. And lately there is lots of talk how shit will happen after elections no matter who wins. Is that really posibility (not civil war of course but riots etc..). It is hard to believe in that.
Didn't Bibi get into all sorts of trouble in Israel for endorsing Romney in 2012? Or am I misremembering?
At this point it's a bit like rooting for Palpatine in Star Wars, because those hypocrite rebels keep demonising the poor empire.
The right and wrong sides are basically Disney movie levels of clear in this election. Though I suppose instead of sending in Luke Skywalker the real life rebels opted to send in a geriatric Obi Wan Kenobi.
I feel like this analogy is starting to fall apart. So say we all.
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Yeah you're clearly not neutral
Ah, a version of the right wing classic "calling someone out for being a racist is just as bad as actually being a racist"
It’s staggering that this ignorant stupid nonsense continues to get trotted out.
If you’re too dumb to understand what’s at stake don’t bloody comment on it.
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