Ignore approval at this point. Completely.
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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Are you available to provide commentary in this thread on election night?
Not much to commentate on, just nerves! I'll probably have a couple of bottles of whiskey on standby in case it all goes wrong, but shall be around.
I could post my prediction map now if you like so you can all laugh on election night?
Fear of 2016 repeating.
The 2016 thread on here was all giddy and Texas was in "play" and there were posts about how Hillary could even win 400.
The facts to keep in mind are
1. Biden +2.5 is a statistical tie in the electoral college.
2. Dem votes will be suppressed.
We're not even close to Biden at +2.5 though, and elevated turnout is more than suppression will ever be.
Yes please.
I feel this thread is taking on the form of a support group. Not that I am complaining.
May also be a referendum on how shit a governor Abbot is and that little shit Cruz licking Trump's sack routinely. Perhaps Texans are growing tired of the bullshit fed to them by the GOP and with the growing Hispanic population surely not taking kindly to Trump's dog-whistling and treatment of migrants and immigrants.
On the same boat here. Quietly confident but don't at all trust the voters and the election infrastructure.
You guys are all way less paranoid than the average midwest/sunbelt voter who is trying to galvanise all her friends to vote because she believes the hidden trump vote is going to come out and perform a magic trick again.
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Guess he didn't insult the Iowans enough last time around. Masochists.
Please do!
Then whether a Biden or Trump voter, at least they're doing something right
Go ahead. I posted one a week or so ago and will probably do a final prediction on election day.
Yes.
what whiskeys
@Carolina Red (and @Rado_N if you are planning on staying up for it) what is your drinks line up looking like?
I’m well stocked currently as our local Walgreens has a heavily discounted liquor store in the back. I’ve 2 bottles of Woodford reserve, half a bottle of Jameson, a bottle of bulleit, the ends of some Makers Mark to finish off, a bottle of four roses and 100 proof old forester (never actually had the last one, but they were practically paying me to take it off their hands...) and I’m taking off Wednesday.
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Been locked in for a week or so, so not really had much time to digest on Texas.
Trump to win: TX, OH
Biden: The rest
5+ Point leads: PA, CO, FL, MI, MN, NH, NV, WI
<3 Points leads: AZ, IA (Georgia on the cusp)
Trump possible <5 point leads: TX, AK, OH, KS
Trump to win: TX, OH
Biden: The rest
5+ Point leads: PA, CO, FL, MI, MN, NH, NV, WI
<3 Points leads: AZ, IA (Georgia on the cusp)
Trump possible <5 point leads: TX, AK, OH, KS
I have a Macallan 25 (1971/1997) for if all goes well. Plenty of baileys for the caffeine+sugar rush (try it instead of milk when you steam up your cappuccino) - If it all goes to shit I'll be broke, so drowning in Belvedere pretty much
I’ll have to try that, though I imagine you’d want to mix the baileys with a little milk before steaming to get some decent foam?I have a Macallan 25 (1971/1997) for if all goes well. Plenty of baileys for the caffeine+sugar rush (try it instead of milk when you steam up your cappuccino) - If it all goes to shit I'll be broke, so drowning in Belvedere pretty much
I usually do about 50/50, or 70/30 [milk] for breakfast. The baileys actually foams fine by itself though; it's just too sweet if you use 150ml of Baileys!
This is what I also have. Spread out the bets for security, if Biden wins 300-329/360+ EVs then it’s 2k profit, 330-359 about 12k, if Trump wins then about 1k loss.
Fortunately I’ve gone dry now and have to work for most of the day anyway, so at least this time I won’t have to nurse a hangover while working in the evening should the worst happens.
In the latest slew of polls. In the aggregate it’s about 1.7 pts, which is where it will end up, Florida doesn’t do > 2.5+ in Florida
I've been super aggressive on turnout predictions if you've been following the thread. I'm not super heavily in on FL+5 (Or IA), but I have quite a lot on the effects of high turnout5+ in Florida
Decent. I'm tempted to go further, but I have a strict rule not to second guess myself in the final stretch. Is it all tax free there too? (Much of my loss is on margins, so a trump win in say PA or low turnout overall would be devastating for me.)
Ps. I think 330-359 is a good shout. I'd have gone 340-369.
Homebrewed hard cider for early in the evening to ease into it. Makers Mark 46 to celebrate, 1.5 L of Kirkland Scotch to make the night disappear if bad.
Actually I'm going to @owlo 's if it's a win. 25 year Macallan?
What would it take for you to think Biden can win TX and OH. I see people associated with the Lincoln Project and Beto O'Rourke/Chuck Rocha that are pretty bullish on TX at the moment, specifically in the Hispanic communities along the Rio Grande that are hard to poll and are usually late deciders/voters.
Damn, you're so red you're enriching Moscow Mitch! Hands off lad, that bottle cost me close to 1000 euro. Probably worth twice that now. (Long ago, I thought about branching into rare wines and watches for my collecting, but I just didn't have the knowledge. This bottle was the product of a friendly fellow auction victim who I had helped out.Homebrewed hard cider for early in the evening to ease into it. Makers Mark 46 to celebrate, 1.5 L of Kirkland Scotch to make the night disappear if bad.
Actually I'm going to @owlo 's if it's a win. 25 year Macallan?
Also: Apparently science is bad.
I had 25 once. I was at a dinner at my companies CMO's house a few years ago after a customer visit. He had beer/wine and then casually mentioned he had a liquor cabinet we could check out. I made a beeline to it along with one of the VP's and there is was. A half empty bottle of 25. We jokingly asked if we could give it a go and his reply was "I don't like the stuff so have at it." It was old enough that the cork basically disintegrated when we popped it open. He laughed and told us to finish the bottle. What a night, sat on the patio sipping for the next few hours........Damn, you're so red you're enriching Moscow Mitch! Hands off lad, that bottle cost me close to 1000 euro. Probably worth twice that now. (Long ago, I thought about branching into rare wines and watches for my collecting, but I just didn't have the knowledge. This bottle was the product of a friendly fellow auction victim who I had helped out.
Also: Apparently science is bad.
I think both are possible pick ups, I just didn't have enough confidence in my ability to read them (and their turnouts) to decide one way or another. That said, this is silly season and everybody is so reactionary to polls and stuff, the needle is jumping all over the place.
The fear of the 'shy trump' vote is instilling quite a bit of paranoia though; that could make people vote who would otherwise slack.
The other big problem for Texas is Abbott, and what will happen on election day. Registration deadlines, ID, Limited voting options. Makes it a hostile environment. The dems simply haven't put many boots on the ground in terms of effort and infrastructure too, so its tough.
I am nervous. I want this orange shitstain gone.
The Orange overlord
Didn’t get an alert for some reason, but one of; Woodford Reserve, Elijah Craig Small Batch, Knob Creek Small Batch, Four Roses Single Barrell, or if things go well I might go for the Wild Turkey Rare Breed.
Macallan 25, wow!I have a Macallan 25 (1971/1997) for if all goes well. Plenty of baileys for the caffeine+sugar rush (try it instead of milk when you steam up your cappuccino) - If it all goes to shit I'll be broke, so drowning in Belvedere pretty much
@owlo yeah gambling income is considered good luck here so tax free. Also the options were provided by the site so not much I can do about that.
There is always the injection of bleach if Trump wins. Can you imagine another four more years of Trump?If it all goes to shit I'll be broke, so drowning in Belvedere pretty much
@InfiniteBoredom Here all 'spread betting' is considered good luck, even on commodities and shares etc. So you have people retiring from fintech jobs at 30, running with the margins, and making silly dollar. It's ridiculous really. I know a guy who makes around £1.5M a week, all 'betting.' Each week, every week.
After four years of lies and corruption, it always amazes me that it would even be close. And there are millions and millions of Trump voters out there.
Mind boggling.
get to feck!
@sglowrider Gotta save the bleach for if I get covid. With brexit on the horizon, I may not be able to get more!
@SirAF It's fecking ridiculous. And the government could easily close the loopholes by simply saying high margins = tax, but they don't. Too many banker friends.
@SirAF It's fecking ridiculous. And the government could easily close the loopholes by simply saying high margins = tax, but they don't. Too many banker friends.
Nice. Do you have any literature I can read?
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