2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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Beachryan

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Surely someone could crunch the numbers and show Trump has played golf more days in his 3.5 years in office than all other sitting Presidents combined?

I actually think theres a good message there, coupled with how many times that's been on our dime at his resorts.
 

Raoul

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Was there a credible third party candidate last time around?
Credible, as in it receives a degree of media coverage. There are many very small, unknown parties who run for President each cycle, who no one knows about, so last cycle the only "known" third parties were the Greens and Liberatrians.
 

berbatrick

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Glad people are getting seats at the various tables.


On May 1st, with the support of the pro-Israel, anti-occupation lobbying group J Street, three Democratic senators—Chris Murphy from Connecticut, Chris Van Hollen from Maryland, and Tim Kaine from Virginia—drafted a letter opposing annexation, which they asked their colleagues to sign. Murphy, Van Hollen, and Kaine are not Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s toughest critics in the Senate[...]

If the identity of the letter’s authors signalled conciliation, so did its content. During the presidential campaign, Bernie Sanders had called for conditioning US military aid to Israel on its treatment of the Palestinians. Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg had suggested that they might restrict US assistance as well, especially if Israel annexed parts of the West Bank. But Murphy, Van Hollen, and Kaine did not ask their colleagues to go as far as these former presidential hopefuls.
It was so tame, a Sanders staffer told me, that the Vermont senator initially held off on signing it out of concern that he might be seen as retreating from the tougher line he had advocated [...]

By the following Monday, its advocates got word that AIPAC was lobbying against it. On Tuesday, May 5th, Democratic Majority for Israel (DMFI)—a pro-Israel advocacy group with close AIPAC ties—sent senators a memo outlining its own opposition. It claimed that the annexation letter “strongly implies that support for U.S. security assistance to Israel would be held hostage to the decisions of the current Israeli government on annexation.” Such an implication, it warned senators, “would put you at odds with our presidential nominee, Joe Biden, who called the idea of conditioning security assistance ‘outrageous’ and a ‘gigantic mistake.’”
[...]
But on May 10th, Jewish Insider reported that the letter had indeed been watered down. Instead of warning that annexation might erode public support for “security assistance,” the new version merely warned it might erode support for the “special relationship” between the US and Israel. The letter was now so toothless that it resembled statements on annexation made by DMFI. Yet, remarkably, DMFI—along with AIPAC—opposed the revised Senate letter anyway.
On its face, the entire episode is bizarre. How could a letter asking Democrats to oppose annexation, which almost all of them ostensibly do, and pledging consequences no more severe than a decline in American public support for Israel—which AIPAC’s own Democratic front group has warned of publicly—still win so little support? The answer, it seems, is that the letter became a test of power. By criticizing annexation themselves but warning other Democrats not to, Cardin and DMFI sent a message about who is entitled to publicly challenge the Israeli government and who is not. They asserted that, even among Democrats, the old rules governing the Israel debate in Washington—set by AIPAC and its allies—still apply.

They still apply, in significant measure, because Joe Biden, who fervently believes in those old rules, is the presumptive Democratic nominee. One of Biden’s top aides, Antony Blinken, reinforced that message on May 18th, when—in a conversation sponsored by DMFI—he emphasized that although Biden opposes annexation, the former vice president “would not tie military assistance to Israel to any political decisions that it makes, period, full stop” and “believes strongly in keeping your differences—to the greatest extent possible—between friends behind doors.”

https://jewishcurrents.org/no-bark-no-bite/
 

Atze-Peng

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Beachryan

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Agreed- the best strategy for the dems has to be a simple, clear argument that Trump has only improved the economy for folks like him, not folks like us. Yes - the market is great, but wages are stagnant and not keeping pace with cost of living, and doesn't help us.

(this assumes the economy bounces from Covid, which I kind of think it will because it is literally the only thing Trump and his economic advisers care about, so will sacrifice the whole f*ckin planet if it means boosting the DJI on election day)
 

Revan

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https://morningconsult.com/form/coronavirus-outbreak-tracker/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiT1RBMVlUSTROakUwTVdNNCIsInQiOiIyeDk2aHh5MTBBVTdXZFNSaTVQQ3lFR3lTa3V4b2xPVGhDT0dCS0E0YzM3NjV5QUxcL2w5YTZVdjJOZGdJWTdzNkwrbkdidU5uS0FDQnBwNlk2SGpzM1hRQ1NEVHpBNTh0VEF3NVwvaEdaYnZpdmQyeWh5QmFkZ0FWSHVsOGdUTFhjIn0=



https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-health-tracking-poll-may-2020/


Obviously polls are to be taken with a grain of salt, but if these numbers are somewhat correct, I would say Trump will have a slight advantage in November as by then most of corona will be overcome (except the virus takes a sudden turn and goes full mutagenic) and the top priority will be rebuilding the economy.
Health care and economy seem to have a similar percentage as the primary issue (23% vs 25%), however the difference Biden has in healthcare (+11) is much higher than the advantage Trump has on the economy (+3 for Trump).

And there is no way that coronavirus crisis is gonna be over in November. Quite likely, it is gonna be worse than it is now.
 

Raoul

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Health care and economy seem to have a similar percentage as the primary issue (23% vs 25%), however the difference Biden has in healthcare (+11) is much higher than the advantage Trump has on the economy (+3 for Trump).

And there is no way that coronavirus crisis is gonna be over in November. Quite likely, it is gonna be worse than it is now.
What the poll doesn't take into consideration is how much people don't vote on issues and instead on culture, likeability, chance of winning etc.
 

nimic

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And I'm all out of bubblegum.
Health care and economy seem to have a similar percentage as the primary issue (23% vs 25%), however the difference Biden has in healthcare (+11) is much higher than the advantage Trump has on the economy (+3 for Trump).

And there is no way that coronavirus crisis is gonna be over in November. Quite likely, it is gonna be worse than it is now.
I'd say the opposite is much more likely. Of course, that might still mean another hundred thousand dead, so it's not great for Trump.
 

berbatrick

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Problematic from Liz and Joe :mad:
Fraternising with a transphobe who interviewed well-known racist B*rn** S****** (He Who Must Not Be Named)
 

Infordin

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I keep seeing polls that claim that Biden is doing great, is clearly ahead of Trump, is doing better than Hillary was, etc...

I don’t buy it. We’ll see in November...
 

Pexbo

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I fecking hate Joe Rogan. Someone on Reddit (or probably someone who had their idea stolen by someone on Reddit) said it best: Joe Rogan is goop for guys.
That’s too good.
 

Raoul

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I keep seeing polls that claim that Biden is doing great, is clearly ahead of Trump, is doing better than Hillary was, etc...

I don’t buy it. We’ll see in November...
These polls would obviously need to hold relatively stable until November, which isn't likely. Once the virus dissipates, Trump and his goons will go on full assault against anything they can find to lower his numbers.
 

berbatrick

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I keep seeing polls that claim that Biden is doing great, is clearly ahead of Trump, is doing better than Hillary was, etc...

I don’t buy it. We’ll see in November...
he's doing fine. but hillary was also doing ok.
the real test is after the campaign heats up - the conventions and then september onwards (debates, etc). so far out, in such a weird year, i dont think predictions are worthwhile.
the interesting thing in the polls is that among minorities and young people, he is equal to hillary. his margin relative to her is from older people. if he can pull it off it coul be a massive shift in future politics. if that stategy is successful, it will also mean that the left will be defeated for another generation or so, about 20 years, which would mean more for the party than the presidency. it is also a risky strategy since those old people have a natural home they could always return to.
 

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Raoul

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wasnt he obamas chief of staff?
seems a fairly logical person to strategise with?
Yes. He and Biden are probably close given their time in the WH. It would be a bit like Hillary working with Podesta after knowing him while he was chief of staff in Bill's administration.
 

UnrelatedPsuedo

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Trump has swung that pendulum so far to the right, anyone on the left trying to beat him has to go to some truly awful places.
 

Beachryan

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I really like Warren, and really hope she's the choice. But *grabs tin foil* Zuckerberg has been clear in his concern about her policies on breaking up monopolies like his.

I could totally see a scenario where Zuckerberg does everything in his power to ensure Warren doesn't win, because he is simply one of the very worst human beings on Earth.
 

Atze-Peng

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Trump has swung that pendulum so far to the right, anyone on the left trying to beat him has to go to some truly awful places.
You haven't been around politics for long? If you compare his policies to conservative policies ~30 years ago, then he is very moderate. It's all a matter of the times and perspective
 

UnrelatedPsuedo

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You haven't been around politics for long? If you compare his policies to conservative policies ~30 years ago, then he is very moderate. It's all a matter of the times and perspective
That’s a very punchy statement with very few qualifiers.

Trump is not moderate.
 

Carolina Red

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You haven't been around politics for long? If you compare his policies to conservative policies ~30 years ago, then he is very moderate. It's all a matter of the times and perspective
So you’re saying you think that Trump‘s policies are to the left of Reagan and GHW Bush?
 

UnrelatedPsuedo

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A moderate conservative. Not a moderate moderate. And 30 years ago he would've been. Today not anymore. As I said. A matter of the times and perspective.
Come on then. No sarcasm at all. How moderate does he look compared to Bush Snr?
 

Atze-Peng

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So you’re saying you think that Trump‘s policies are to the left of Reagan and GHW Bush?
Reagan had just as much a focus on improving economy including through tax cuts and deregulating laws for businesses. He also was involved in the Immigration Reform that definitely was a step against immigration. Unlike Trump, Reagan wanted to ban abortions and was pretty much against gay rights. I wouldn't say that that is more moderate than Trumps policies.

Not to mention there is also this Pew report about how the voterbase of the two parties have developed: https://www.people-press.org/2017/10/05/the-partisan-divide-on-political-values-grows-even-wider/
 
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