Well I think Latinos in AZ already dislike Trump to a fair amount as they tend to be from Mexico and Central America rather than Cuba (like you allude to). My only skepticism over the national view on AZ Latinos is the extent to which they will affect the election. While Latinos make up a significant portion of the population (may even be the majority in the near future), most of them are either undocumented or not citizens, unless this has changed drastically in the 3-4 years since I left. It's really their children that Dems are relying on to swing elections in the future and I'm unconvinced that 1) there are enough of these second-generation Latinos in general and that 2) there are enough of them that are motivated to vote. 1) is likelier than 2) based on the people I know at least but maybe there is data proving this to be otherwise that hopefully proves me wrong. This may change by 2024 or even 2028 but for now, the Dems best bet in AZ is still attracting educated suburban white voters.
The other thing about AZ that I want to say is that it is unrealistic to expect Biden to win AZ by 5 points, it's just not supported by reality. I do believe AZ will vote for Biden but it is going to be a 1-2 point victory in all honesty and that's ok! People (even forecasters like Nate Silver) who worry about the recent polls "tightening" or being "mediocre" in AZ fail to remember that Trump won the state by 3.5% points in 2016. A 2 point victory would still be a 5.5 percentage point shift to the left. If anything, I'm less inclined to believe the earlier polls which had Biden up by >5 points in AZ (although there were more undecideds earlier on to be fair). However, I do feel that Biden's edge in AZ is real when you see poll after poll having him ahead. That's never been the case for a Dem presidential nominee in AZ in the last several decades. The demographic data supports the polling numbers. Plus, Sinema did win statewide in a midterm election, which shows that the votes are there to make it happen.
While I think similar logic applies to FL (likely to be a 1-2 point victory at best), I can't speak more to that state as I've never lived there *shrugs shoulders*. So bottom line, stop freaking out about polls tightening in these center-right states, it won't make you look smart.
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At least postal issues have been a fairly big issue, so hopefully that's making people mail their ballots early.