He's been getting hammered for massaging people's shoulders and being on the wrong side of racial issues for months now and is still dominantly in the lead. He also continues to dominate the others among black voters. Until that changes, he's the leader of the pack by a good distance. The gaffe machine stuff is already baked in.The betting markets suggest he might not be the nominee. The increasing worries about his gaffes that cause his staff to already reduce his appearances this far suggest he might not even be capable of finishing a general election campaign. The donation maps that show Bernie's domination getting most donors with Warren a definitive second suggests Biden might not have the actual support the polls imply. And the fact that Buttigieg has been steadily collecting a huge amount of money from the every wealthy neighborhood suggest the rich Dems are not so enamored with Biden as they were Hilary.
So yeah it does look like you believe the polls are infallible when you ignore every other data point except selective polling. Nothing to suggest" is not really a fair or true statement:
ELIZABETH WARREN OVERTAKES JOE BIDEN AS FAVORITE TO WIN DEMOCRATIC PARTY'S 2020 PRIMARY: U.K. BOOKMAKER
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik and Imran hold a long overdue conversation about United's awful league form with 1 win in 7. They discuss a disappointing draw at Bournemouth, a not so disappointing draw against Liverpool and a crushing defeat at Chelsea - Is time nearly over for Erik Ten Hag?
Then in a special second half of the pod, Nik welcomes Natalie ( https://twitter.com/natalie_17) to discuss the fortunes of Manchester United Women as they booked a place in the FA Cup Final after a historic first ever win vs. Chelsea.
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You haven't made a single point that proves that you don't believe your beloved polling is infallible, you are increasingly ignoring every single data point outside of whatever polls you link. And no, his gaffes are absolutely not "baked in". That silly statement relies on the belief that these are not cumulative (when historically they are) and they don't have threshold points. Your posts basically sound like blind faith in establishment polling being infallible.
I don't consider gambling connoisseur sites to be credible data points. How about providing some polling (or a poll of polls) to justify your argument that Biden isn't in the lead in most states ?
Oh boyo, just admit you consider polling infallible because here you are literally discarding any other data about the election. You are championing the same people that said Hilary Clinton had a 90% chance of winning as the gold standard in election predictions with the defense "but, but Trump still had that 10% of winning so the polling is still the only thing we should consider."
^not exactly a compelling argument for these establishment polls being any more credible as data points.
You said "there is nothing to suggest Biden won't be the nominee". Multiple data points suggest Biden might not be the nominee:
- The betting markets suggest he might not be the nominee.
- The increasing worries about his gaffes that cause his staff to already reduce his appearances this far suggest he might not even be capable of finishing a general election campaign - this is something cumulative not isolated single incidents.
- The donation maps that show Bernie's domination getting most donors with Warren a definitive second suggests Biden might not have the actual support the polls imply.
- Buttigieg has been steadily collecting a huge amount of money from the every wealthy neighborhood suggest the rich Dems are not so enamored with Biden as they were Hilary to justify blind faith in polling at this early stage.
So again what you really meant to say was "there is no polling that I personally rate that suggests Biden won't be the nominee." It's just misleading and dishonest to say "there is nothing to suggest"
The map clearly tells its own story.
Bernie is getting donations from all over the country. Those are votes.
Bernie is getting donations from all over the country. Those are votes.
That's exactly what the 2020 election needs.
Here is the map without Bernie. People need to stop asserting this narrative that the polling is so definitive this far out when no one will be actually voting under the current conditions the polls are being conducted. Plus we don't even have the raw data with the establishment polls but the subjective processed results that could swing greatly from what the reality is.
The desperation of the Corporate machinery to push its candidate is slaughtering Bernie on the media.
Importantly Biden cannot beat Trump being this incompetent. I honestly believe his so called gaffes are due to serious issues with him. He cannot articulate sentences/thoughts.
And also if we were interested in the country, the last thing we would want is a guy who is on the way to being seriously incapable of governing.
Importantly Biden cannot beat Trump being this incompetent. I honestly believe his so called gaffes are due to serious issues with him. He cannot articulate sentences/thoughts.
And also if we were interested in the country, the last thing we would want is a guy who is on the way to being seriously incapable of governing.
Said it early. Biden is much worse than Hillary.
Trump will trounce him.
Trump will trounce him.
The sudden fascination with oddsmakers is interesting, especially since they had Beto as the next President 7 months ago.
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/...lain-why-beto-is-the-2020-democratic-favorite
As for your above points 2-4 - I doubt Biden is sweating his fundraising since he's not people funded and won't have any issues as long as he continues to be perceived as the person with the best chance of beating Trump. That could of course change but there's nothing to suggest that's happened as of now.
Bernie seems to be slipping down into Harris territory of late. Seems like Warren has replaced him in his previous spot.
Did you see the media coverage of Bernie's Iowa State Fair visit?
It was completely false.
Feel free to trust your polls.
I'm sure TYT and Kyle Kulinkski provided ample positive coverage for Bernie. He also went on Rogan, whose show is watched by millions.
None of this relevant to the original point. It was quite simply misleading and disingenuous to say "there is nothing to suggest" when what you really meant was "I only rate certain polls and there is nothing in the certain polls I rate that suggests"
And its not sudden Raoul. I followed political futures markets throughout the late 90s and 00s and during that twenty year period I was actively following they were more accurate than polling.
The point is Bernie's support is solid.
Not so with Biden.
He may be seen as the establishment front runner, but he has no enthusiasm.
We will know with Iowa and NH as we get closer and the campaigning gets intense.
Importantly Biden has nothing to offer. He wont get the votes.
I agree with the last bit but I doubt people vote on just policy ideas. They often vote on cultural familiarity or for someone they just feel comfortable with.
You are actually supporting what I said.
Trump has fanatic followers. Biden only has 'The other guy is bad'. Same story with Hillary. Except she looked capable.
Also it is important to see what the DNC does to push him to the nomination if that happens. How will a Bernie base react to another 'cheating' of their candidate.
Bernie has accused Washington Post and NY Times of dishonest coverage.
The Dems cannot win without the Progressive base. We need to remember, its the Mid West Biden needs to carry. Not the South.
Turnout/Enthusiasm is key.
It can all turn upside down easy.
Final thought. Biden does not have it in him to fight a brutal campaign against Trump who is desperate to remain in office because the day he leaves office arrest warrants await him for all his crimes.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/457486-biden-allies-float-scaling-back-events-to-limit-gaffes
https://www.thedailybeast.com/obama...you-dont-have-to-do-this-joe?via=twitter_page
The guy that keeps gaffing on the campaign trail, the guy that says nothing will change for people as a campaign slogan, the guy that does deals with republicans to screw over democrats, the guy that campaigned for a republican in the mid-terms and then rejected to endorse the democrat...IS A BAD CANDIDATE!!!
This guy is such a clusterflap of a candidate that even Obama has to leak to the media that he's awful to try and protect his legacy.
A biden nomination will be Trump's best shot at a second term.
Campaigning for a Republican was overblown way out of proportions. He praised him for introducing a bill which would improve cancer care, and knowing Biden's personal history with cancer, I cannot blame him for doing so.
In all polls, Biden does better than any other Democrat against Trump.
There is no way Bernie fans could feel he was cheated this time when he has consistently trailed in the polls
At some point you will have to accept he just isn't that popular
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/...supported-a-republican-in-a-dollar200k-speech
And when asked to endorse the democrat in a tight race...what did Biden do?
oh right, nothing.
From May/2019 biden has been on a massive slide.
May - 41% average
August 30.5% Average
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e..._democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
You aren't supposed to drop in the polls the more people see you in public if you have a strong candidacy.
In GE averaged polls Biden and Sanders tie or Biden has a small advantage. However both Biden and Sander demolish trump. The problem with biden is that continually gaffing doesn't help those polls and won't help him when it's Trump v Biden. The last thing Biden needs is to be seen as Hillary 2.0 and that's EXACTLY what he's doing.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/
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If you put him in a two horse race where there’s a binary choice then he does fine. When there are other strong progressives in the race he wobbles quite a bit. Warren has more appeal to broader parts of the party from progressives to normal Dems, so it’s not surprising that she is doing well and more or less slowly replacing him on the progressive side.
Im hoping Warren wins hopefully she will pick up more and more support even if Bernie will still go on to the end
That’s the key aspect of him being the leader at the moment. People want Trump out and see him as having the best chance of doing it. Unless that changes and he loses the massive black support he’s getting, he is gliding towards a good result.
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It's too early to say he's gliding towards anything. I guess that depends on what you consider a good result. Personally I'd only consider winning a good result, and it's perfectly plausible that he doesn't win the nomination even if he stays at 30%. Maybe that's his ceiling?
Biden's Gaffes.
We all misspeak. But when we are focused on work, we rarely do that.
Biden is aware of this problem. Yet he is unable to correct it.
That is because it is a medical problem.
The fact the DNC is pushing someone like this to be president proves what Progressives have been saying. A corporate owned party does not care about the competence of a president.
It only wants a hand that can be controlled to sign bills that favour it.
There is zero compulsion to vote for such a candidate.
We all misspeak. But when we are focused on work, we rarely do that.
Biden is aware of this problem. Yet he is unable to correct it.
That is because it is a medical problem.
The fact the DNC is pushing someone like this to be president proves what Progressives have been saying. A corporate owned party does not care about the competence of a president.
It only wants a hand that can be controlled to sign bills that favour it.
There is zero compulsion to vote for such a candidate.
He wont stay there since people will drop out of the race in the coming months, which along with more campaigning, debates, and now ads, will move numbers. The big problem for the other candidates is that Biden is currently gobbling up about 50% of the black vote, which means the others won't have any chance of winning unless that number drops by at least 20-30%. If Warren or Sanders ever make a significant dent in that number they will have a chance.
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For the love of everything, stop speculating such weird crap.
Also, in 2016, it's about Bernie Sanders and his unknown platform and not given enough media coverage. This time, he has been a leader from day one. You can't hide behind 'Corporate media' and 'DNC' forever. Then stop fecking running and do it as a third party candidate.
Beto trying to leverage the domestic terrorism in El Paso for his campaign: taking a break to visit the site of the Murrah bombing in OKC and Greenwood the site of the Tulsa race riots.
I might walk down the street to check it out...
I might walk down the street to check it out...
Is Harris not as popular with the African American voter as she should be?
They are on the whole quite conservative, and generally go for the perceived ‘safer’ choice, unless something changes dramatically (Barrack Obama winning Iowa in 08).
That being said, they are not a safe group at all for Biden. If the perception that he’s not Obama’s choice becomes established, he’ll lose them in droves. That’s the whole deal with Biden really, he’s just not a talented politician (obviously speaking at national level, since he was talented enough to climb the ladder to Senator), nor is he in command of a die hard base, like the Clintons. He’s always been gaffish comical uncle Joe, and anytime he went out on his own without a better political talent to latch on to, it ended ignominiously.
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He should just drop out for the greater good
Let's see how she holds up to a year of constant Pocahontas jibes ... Not well I suspect (which is a shame she seems like a credible candidate and certainly in my eyes better than trump but I am not sure she will match up well with trump when the insults start flying... Rise above it and I think she will look disconnected... Get in a pissing contest and get dragged down to trump's level)
Will be interesting to see if her and Bernie turn on each other in the next debate
With all due respect you know feck all about anything.
They wont turn on each other. They had the chance.
The Pocahontas jibes only works with the shit-for -brains who are already Trump muppets.
Let's see... I think trump will win a second term... I hope not but I can see him winning against any of the current Dems though of course circumstances can dictate a lot but that said he's in a better place to shape the agenda than anybody else
He will win a second term with braindead Biden or Harris.
Trump's biggest advantage is that Dems are factionalized into two camps (progressives v ordinary Dems) and since at least one of the two camps would rather stay home than vote for the other, it could wind up giving Trump just enough to pull off another improbable win.
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