2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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Charlie Foley

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I wouldn't hold my breath on that one.
Right. You know better than me mate. I’d expect either the gun owners would refuse and there would be a standoff between them and those looking to confiscate, or the confiscators themselves would refuse to carry it out and then there’s a stand off between willing and unwilling officers.
 

sun_tzu

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Right. You know better than me mate. I’d expect either the gun owners would refuse and there would be a standoff between them and those looking to confiscate, or the confiscators themselves would refuse to carry it out and then there’s a stand off between willing and unwilling officers.
Why confiscate... Have a hand in period and after that point anybody who is found with a gun... Life sentence and sell all their assets to fund it
No need to go door to door but if anybody commits a crime with a gun it's automatic death sentence ... If for any other reason your found with a gun it's a life sentence (eg if arrested then as standard officers will search your home whilst you are in custody)
There has to be ways other than marching street to street and disarming people because we managed it in the UK and they managed it in Australia
 

oneniltothearsenal

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Why confiscate... Have a hand in period and after that point anybody who is found with a gun... Life sentence and sell all their assets to fund it
No need to go door to door but if anybody commits a crime with a gun it's automatic death sentence ... If for any other reason your found with a gun it's a life sentence (eg if arrested then as standard officers will search your home whilst you are in custody)
There has to be ways other than marching street to street and disarming people because we managed it in the UK and they managed it in Australia
Would never pass the constitutionality test. And it wouldn't work pragmatically anyway - deterrents are meaningless if people believe they need the gun to survive.

And you really need to stop comparing island nations that never had a gun culture with a nation like the US that for 500 years the entire continent had gun cultures imposed.
 

Ekkie Thump

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Would never pass the constitutionality test. And it wouldn't work pragmatically anyway - deterrents are meaningless if people believe they need the gun to survive.

And you really need to stop comparing island nations that never had a gun culture with a nation like the US that for 500 years the entire continent had gun cultures imposed.
This guy has a really interesting channel and does an excellent series on gun control, the first one of which is below. Definitely educated me a little bit anyway. He's certainly not a book that should be judged by its cover.

 

Charlie Foley

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Why confiscate... Have a hand in period and after that point anybody who is found with a gun... Life sentence and sell all their assets to fund it
No need to go door to door but if anybody commits a crime with a gun it's automatic death sentence ... If for any other reason your found with a gun it's a life sentence (eg if arrested then as standard officers will search your home whilst you are in custody)
There has to be ways other than marching street to street and disarming people because we managed it in the UK and they managed it in Australia
Sadly those countries you mentioned have much different (better) cultures when it comes to guns. “You’ll get arrested if you don’t hand in your gun” would be treated as confiscation in the courts and in the streets. When they come to arrest people who won’t hand their guns in those boys are still gonna be armed up. And still the issue of agents or officers refusing to do it
 

Carolina Red

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Right. You know better than me mate. I’d expect either the gun owners would refuse and there would be a standoff between them and those looking to confiscate, or the confiscators themselves would refuse to carry it out and then there’s a stand off between willing and unwilling officers.
That said, this could be a push for southern white voters by Bernie. Lots of poor southern white gun owners in economic hardship due to medical bills and stuff.
 

Wednesday at Stoke

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The latest 538 politics podcast is great nerdery on polling and sampling strategies, biases, lessons learnt from 2016 etc. Nate Cohen, who ran the latest NYT swing states poll is the guest.
 

sun_tzu

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The latest 538 politics podcast is great nerdery on polling and sampling strategies, biases, lessons learnt from 2016 etc. Nate Cohen, who ran the latest NYT swing states poll is the guest.
Downloaded that today and planning to give it a listen along with the latest pod save America and election cast tomorrow as I have to drive to a meeting
Find it generally pretty interesting and especially the geekier poling analytics
 

Drifter

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So much for that.

Mark Sanford: Trump challenger drops out of presidential race
 

sun_tzu

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Filing deadlines are as follows
November
Alabama: Nov. 8

Arkansas: Nov. 11

New Hampshire: Nov. 15

California: Nov. 26

So she's already out of two of those and unless she announces by Friday is out of new Hampshire as well

I'd say based on not filing for Arkansas it looks very unlikely she will run as wasn't that Bill Clinton's home state?

Not filing for new Hampshire by Friday makes it 99.999999% certain she won't be running

And I can't see how you could not file for California as well and even contemplate a run.

Seems like it's a bit of extra publicity for her book
 

Charlie Foley

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His rise in Iowa is very interesting.
What was most interesting about that Monmouth poll is how few people said they were set in their decision. Buttigieg’s Iowa rise could be due to uncertainty over Biden and no other option in the Centrist lane with Harris nose diving, Warren pitching to the centre left and your boy dropping out. Who knows. The relative closeness of Indiana could help with his momentum.

I have yet to see one person who supports him give me policy reasons why they do though that could be the circles I move in. A lot of identity politics stuff brought up (sexuality, age, the fact he’s a vet...). I also had one friend who when I criticised Kamala told me I “shouldn’t care so much about her record” :lol: voters are annoying as candidates sometimes!

Since climate is my primary interest I will be fair and put his “manifesto” in this post for those who want to read: https://storage.googleapis.com/pfa-webapp/documents/Climate-Plan-White-Paper.pdf
 

Raoul

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What was most interesting about that Monmouth poll is how few people said they were set in their decision. Buttigieg’s Iowa rise could be due to uncertainty over Biden and no other option in the Centrist lane with Harris nose diving, Warren pitching to the centre left and your boy dropping out. Who knows. The relative closeness of Indiana could help with his momentum.

I have yet to see one person who supports him give me policy reasons why they do though that could be the circles I move in. A lot of identity politics stuff brought up (sexuality, age, the fact he’s a vet...). I also had one friend who when I criticised Kamala told me I “shouldn’t care so much about her record” :lol: voters are annoying as candidates sometimes!

Since climate is my primary interest I will be fair and put his “manifesto” in this post for those who want to read: https://storage.googleapis.com/pfa-webapp/documents/Climate-Plan-White-Paper.pdf
Yes, I think you're onto something about uncertainty over Biden. Also, Harris has plunged into the low single digits and Beto (for what it's worth) is out, so between the three of them, there was a good amount of support up for grabs.

Next debate will be pivotal for Pete since they are probably going to gun for him. If he deals with it well he could soar into the top 2.
 

oneniltothearsenal

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What was most interesting about that Monmouth poll is how few people said they were set in their decision. Buttigieg’s Iowa rise could be due to uncertainty over Biden and no other option in the Centrist lane with Harris nose diving, Warren pitching to the centre left and your boy dropping out. Who knows. The relative closeness of Indiana could help with his momentum.

I have yet to see one person who supports him give me policy reasons why they do though that could be the circles I move in. A lot of identity politics stuff brought up (sexuality, age, the fact he’s a vet...). I also had one friend who when I criticised Kamala told me I “shouldn’t care so much about her record” :lol: voters are annoying as candidates sometimes!

Since climate is my primary interest I will be fair and put his “manifesto” in this post for those who want to read: https://storage.googleapis.com/pfa-webapp/documents/Climate-Plan-White-Paper.pdf
Yes, I think you're onto something about uncertainty over Biden. Also, Harris has plunged into the low single digits and Beto (for what it's worth) is out, so between the three of them, there was a good amount of support up for grabs.

Next debate will be pivotal for Pete since they are probably going to gun for him. If he deals with it well he could soar into the top 2.
This was clear after that political donor map the NY Times published. Outside of Delaware/DC area, every wealthy zip code in the country has been donating to Buttigig the past 4 months.
 

Red Dreams

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It just smacks of desperation and ego. This guy is a political minnow and yet seems to think he has what it takes to ignore the campaign process and swoop in late to win it all.
I'm certain this is Obama asking...pleading with him to run.
Obama must know by now the huge mess Biden is in. He does not want to be holding Biden's hand up and tarnish his own legacy.

The Southern States will decide who becomes the nominee.
Which also makes Pete's numbers in the early states redundant.
 

Raoul

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I'm certain this is Obama asking...pleading with him to run.
Obama must know by now the huge mess Biden is in. He does not want to be holding Biden's hand up and tarnish his own legacy.

The Southern States will decide who becomes the nominee.
Which also makes Pete's numbers in the early states redundant.
Why would Obama want this minnow to run when he could easily just back Buttigieg instead.
 
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