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Trump beating everyone is interesting.Tweet
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The economy on the face of it is good. Benefiting from Obama's work but the damage that economists were predicting with a Trump election hasn't happened. If this continues to hold he has a feather in his cap of being able to reel of statistics.Trump beating everyone is interesting.
The damage will be clear when he's out and a Democrat has to clean up the mess. Tens of millions of people in this country have nothing saved, nothing invested and living pay period to pay period. They think the economy is good because you don't have Republicans in the opposition screaming about how the economy is crumbling and we are doomed. That will most likely happen on the evening of January 20th 2021 when a Dem president is sworn in.The economy on the face of it is good. Benefiting from Obama's work but the damage that economists were predicting with a Trump election hasn't happened. If this continues to hold he has a feather in his cap of being able to reel of statistics.
The average H2H for Bernie-Trump is +3, for Warren is +0.5. Biden is +4. All are doing badly but Warren and Pete are alost sure to lose.Tweet
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AgreedThe average H2H for Bernie-Trump is +3, for Warren is +0.5. Biden is +4. All are doing badly but Warren and Pete are alost sure to lose.
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Biden's Social Security cuts statements in the Senate is beginning to have an effect too.Tweet
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Here.....comes......BERNIE!!!!
That's Yuuuuge.Tweet
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Obviously since both Sanders and Trump are viewed as competing for populist voters.Tweet
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Also a pretty obvious statement from trump when you look back at primary results. Bernie pulled out some "shock wins", did better in states than he should have during the primary and instead of having any kind of revaluation or critical thinking, the clinton campaign just kept driving off the cliff because "nobody will vote for trump in the GE". The arrogance and "born to rule" mentality of her whole campaign completely missed the mood of the country.Obviously since both Sanders and Trump are viewed as competing for populist voters.
oBvIoUsLy TrUmP dOeSn’T fEaR hIm At AlL.Tweet
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Can we quote you on that?Wonder who the Republican candidate will be. It won't be Trump. Look up what he looked and sounded like nine months ago, in April. It wasn't great, but compared to the shuffling, bloated mess that has unintelligible, slurred word salad pouring out of his mouth whenever he makes a public appearance now it's night and day. In just a matter of days he's admitted to withholding evidence at a press conference in Davos, claimed that the wheel was invented in the US and praised the efforts to create safe zones in Syria and that "they have the oil and things" to a man who has pretty much no relation to Syria. Imagine how much worse he'll be like after being ravaged by dementia for another nine months, a week before election day. I doubt we'll ever even know. He'll probably be removed from the public eye well before that. I can't wait. Orange cnut.
Thankfully, GDPR saves me from having to read that editorial.
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I don't think many (if any) of us expected Bernie to come back and regain the momentum after he suffered those health issues.
especially with the corporate media gunning for him as well.I don't think many (if any) of us expected Bernie to come back and regain the momentum after he suffered those health issues.
will be VERY interesting to see what happens if Bernie takes both IW and NH. Biden's entire campaign is built on nostalgia and highlighting good polls in ad's. I think we can almost pencil in SC as a Biden win, but a part from that, does he retain any support if he loses the first 2? What ad's does he run when the facade around "electability" is shattered?
For me, the only thing I'm looking at is who wins the southern states since that is where Biden is strong. If he holds serve there it will be very hard to beat him to the nomination. Expecting Bernie to win IA by a small margin and NH decisively, Biden should take NV and SC.will be VERY interesting to see what happens if Bernie takes both IW and NH. Biden's entire campaign is built on nostalgia and highlighting good polls in ad's. I think we can almost pencil in SC as a Biden win, but a part from that, does he retain any support if he loses the first 2? What ad's does he run when the facade around "electability" is shattered?
at the least, i'd imagine Biden has to win one of the first two to not see support crumble.
Not sure it would be a shock at this stage if he won Iowa decisively.For me, the only thing I'm looking at is who wins the southern states since that is where Biden is strong. If he holds serve there it will be very hard to beat him to the nomination. Expecting Bernie to win IA by a small margin and NH decisively, Biden should take NV and SC.
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Nah. If Biden hasn’t fallen back dramatically after all the goofy shit he has said already, then the die is nearly cast.at the least, i'd imagine Biden has to win one of the first two to not see support crumble.
who's gonna tell him?Wonder who the Republican candidate will be. It won't be Trump. Look up what he looked and sounded like nine months ago, in April. It wasn't great, but compared to the shuffling, bloated mess that has unintelligible, slurred word salad pouring out of his mouth whenever he makes a public appearance now it's night and day. In just a matter of days he's admitted to withholding evidence at a press conference in Davos, claimed that the wheel was invented in the US and praised the efforts to create safe zones in Syria and that "they have the oil and things" to a man who has pretty much no relation to Syria. Imagine how much worse he'll be like after being ravaged by dementia for another nine months, a week before election day. I doubt we'll ever even know. He'll probably be removed from the public eye well before that. I can't wait. Orange cnut.
not really. Two big reasons why Biden is doing well pre-polling day is 1. notability and 2. Dem's wanting a candidate they THINK can win. Hence why Joe's entire campaign is: Obama, Malarkey Tour, Youth have it easy, Republicans will work with me, Corn Pop, I'm the most electable against trump see X poll.Nah. If Biden hasn’t fallen back dramatically after all the goofy shit he has said already, then the die is nearly cast.
Very good question.
Biden still has a narrow lead in NV but its substantially down from Nov. I feel a good feeling about NV for Bernie as long as they avoid some of the bullshit that happened last time out.EDIT - The silly baseball man you used to like seems to think Bernie's favourite to win Nevada as well.
He running strongly so far because he’s doing very well with black voters, which is why he is polling so well in the south. Iowa, for instance, doesn’t really represent the national Dem demographics, so it wouldn’t be a big deal if he doesn’t come in first there. The real harbinger for Biden will be how well he does in SC, since that is far more representative to the national demographics for Dem voters.not really. Two big reasons why Biden is doing well pre-polling day is 1. notability and 2. Dem's wanting a candidate they THINK can win. Hence why Joe's entire campaign is: Obama, Malarkey Tour, Youth have it easy, Republicans will work with me, Corn Pop, I'm the most electable against trump see X poll.
Biden is actually running ads right now that end with him saying "he's the most electable candidate against trump in polls".
You take away IW, you take away NH, what is he running on? He's an awful policy man, he persuades people with charm on the campaign trail. Get into policy and he folds and fumbles around like a drunk football fan. How does he make the electability argument? Hell, i just posted an article above that a SC rep withdrew their endorsement of Biden because she thought he'd be an ok compromise endorsement.
The best thing Biden has going for him is that he doesn't have the hatred-history of Hillary. If Biden stumbles his way to the nomination, I can see him beating trump BARELY. I just question whether he can survive losing both opening votes and not come out of them a VERY compromised candidate.
According to FiveThirtyEight, South Carolina is even more unrepresentative of the Democratic electorate than New Hampshire and Iowa.The real harbinger for Biden will be how well he does in SC, since that is far more representative to the national demographics for Dem voters.
Well a large and growing number of Dem voters are non-white, so Iowa (which is pretty homogeneous and white) wouldn’t be the place to look for a candidate’s longer term viability this cycle. NH is pretty much Sanders’ back yard so he was always going to do well there. His big challenge will be dislodging black voters from the Biden camp in the southern states, since he more or less can’t win without them.According to FiveThirtyEight, South Carolina is even more unrepresentative of the Democratic electorate than New Hampshire and Iowa.
The only states (and DC) that are less representative are DC, Alabama, Alaska, Mississippi and Hawaii.
I definitely agree, but it's also important to keep in mind that non-hispanic white voters still make up the majority of the Democratic electorate. In that sense South Carolina is very unrepresentative of the Democratic electorate for the general election. But there's absolutely something to the idea that Biden doesn't need to win Iowa or NH, but he really needs to win South Carolina. As you say, he's relying heavily on the black voters.Well a large and growing number of Dem voters are non-white, so Iowa (which is pretty homogeneous and white) wouldn’t be the place to look for a candidate’s longer term viability this cycle. NH is pretty much Sanders’ back yard so he was always going to do well there. His big challenge will be dislodging black voters from the Biden camp in the southern states, since he more or less can’t win without them.