2021 American Civil War

oneniltothearsenal

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Would it have though? I am 80% sure Turtle would have kept all the seats open for 4 years.
Exactly. At the very least, Kennedy would not have stepped down to get replaced yet and Bitch McConnel would not have allowed a replacement for Ginsburg. They *might* have been able to get Garland through for Scalia but I wouldn't have bet on that either.
 

WI_Red

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Exactly. At the very least, Kennedy would not have stepped down to get replaced yet and Bitch McConnel would not have allowed a replacement for Ginsburg. They *might* have been able to get Garland through for Scalia but I wouldn't have bet on that either.
The Kennedy thing is super shady and I am shocked there was so little reporting done on it. Not saying anything nefarious happened, but it looks shady.
 

Raoul

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What makes it shady? Justices retiring strategically is very common, no?
Justices dying or retiring is fairly common. Stepping aside specifically for political purposes isn't common at all.
 

Cheimoon

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The thing with voter suppression from the conservatives is that it's not some new thing they are coming up with as a reaction to anything. It's been part of their strategy since the inception of the USA. Blacks, Native Americans, Women, Asians, etc have all been denied the right to vote outright through everything from Congressional legislation to poll taxes, literacy tests and more. So this recent iteration is not really an indication of anything new but just a continuance of how they always do business.

And I don't buy into Raul's over-simplistic demographic determinism for a variety of reasons.
1) party identification doesn't mean people won't still vote GOP in any given election (heck just look at that graph. in 1992 or 1998, some concluded the same things Raul is now only to see a resurgence in GOP party identification)
2) there are plenty of studies that prove people do actually vote more conservative the older they get, so today's influx of youth voters that look like some permanent swing could easily turn into GOP voter majority by the time they retire in 40-50 years (if retirement is even an option for many of them)

“We can say, with a great deal of confidence, that people get more conservative when they get older—and a lot more,” says Chicago Booth’s Sam Peltzman, who conducted the research. “It’s not just a little bit. It’s a pretty big change over their lifetime.”
Though some people form their political beliefs early in life and stick with them, most of us follow a predictable and durable pattern: our political beliefs steadily become more conservative as we age, no matter what generation we belong to or what era we grew up in, the research finds. "
https://review.chicagobooth.edu/economics/2020/article/there-are-two-americas-and-age-divider

The sky is hardly falling for the GOP in the long term.
Interestingly, I actually feel like I shift to the left a little more all the time as I learn more about the world. And I'm 40 now, not in my 10s or 20s.

Anyway, I agree, you can't just extrapolate from current voters, assuming that nothing changes. Also, if the Republicans dial back the racism, they should also be able to attract a lot more minority votes than they currently do. Or at least, my impression is that there are large groups of racialized populations that would be attracted to the Republicans' social-conservative message, but won't vote for a white supremacist party. The Republicans could easily shed a large part of that without losing their general social and economic conservative ideas.
 

VorZakone

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The thing with voter suppression from the conservatives is that it's not some new thing they are coming up with as a reaction to anything. It's been part of their strategy since the inception of the USA. Blacks, Native Americans, Women, Asians, etc have all been denied the right to vote outright through everything from Congressional legislation to poll taxes, literacy tests and more. So this recent iteration is not really an indication of anything new but just a continuance of how they always do business.

And I don't buy into Raul's over-simplistic demographic determinism for a variety of reasons.
1) party identification doesn't mean people won't still vote GOP in any given election (heck just look at that graph. in 1992 or 1998, some concluded the same things Raul is now only to see a resurgence in GOP party identification)
2) there are plenty of studies that prove people do actually vote more conservative the older they get, so today's influx of youth voters that look like some permanent swing could easily turn into GOP voter majority by the time they retire in 40-50 years (if retirement is even an option for many of them)

“We can say, with a great deal of confidence, that people get more conservative when they get older—and a lot more,” says Chicago Booth’s Sam Peltzman, who conducted the research. “It’s not just a little bit. It’s a pretty big change over their lifetime.”
Though some people form their political beliefs early in life and stick with them, most of us follow a predictable and durable pattern: our political beliefs steadily become more conservative as we age, no matter what generation we belong to or what era we grew up in, the research finds. "
https://review.chicagobooth.edu/economics/2020/article/there-are-two-americas-and-age-divider

The sky is hardly falling for the GOP in the long term.
So what makes people become more conservative as they age?
 

Jericholyte2

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So what makes people become more conservative as they age?
That kind of depends on if you mean economically of socially conservative?

Economically - Issues such as (previously) home ownership and increased wages as you rise up pay scales. This then leads people to worry about things such as taxation more and so lean closer to the conservative ideology of small government / low taxation for 'richer' folks.

Socially - This is the trickier one to define, I'd imagine as social groups get smaller and things such as travel potentially begin to become less important, a person's exposure to the wide, multi-cultural world reduces.
 

Cheimoon

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Socially - This is the trickier one to define, I'd imagine as social groups get smaller and things such as travel potentially begin to become less important, a person's exposure to the wide, multi-cultural world reduces.
On this one, it might also be that views that are considered centric now might seem conservative in a few decades. So that would be more of a case of people not developing at the pace society does. (I don't know how this works out for previous centuries (did people always gradually shift to the right?), but society did develop pretty quickly in the past 100 or so years.)
 

Raoul

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That kind of depends on if you mean economically of socially conservative?

Economically - Issues such as (previously) home ownership and increased wages as you rise up pay scales. This then leads people to worry about things such as taxation more and so lean closer to the conservative ideology of small government / low taxation for 'richer' folks.

Socially - This is the trickier one to define, I'd imagine as social groups get smaller and things such as travel potentially begin to become less important, a person's exposure to the wide, multi-cultural world reduces.
Culturally, older people tend to want to preserve (or "conserve") the culture of the past that they identify with, which generally means rejecting change and embracing the norms of the past.
 

MrMarcello

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Would it have though? I am 80% sure Turtle would have kept all the seats open for 4 years.
How could he legally have done this?

I can see "lame duck year" for a POTUS on the way out as something that would be difficult to challenge and by the time ruled would probably have an inbound POTUS (and IMO what McConnell did should have been illegal but guess it's not).
 

WI_Red

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How could he legally have done this?

I can see "lame duck year" for a POTUS on the way out as something that would be difficult to challenge and by the time ruled would probably have an inbound POTUS (and IMO what McConnell did should have been illegal but guess it's not).
The lame duck thing was just as absurd as waiting 4 years. The filibuster, and the Majority Leaders power to control what comes up for a vote, makes pretty much all of this legal. For all the talk of the filibuster I do wish they would address the House and Senate Majority leaders power to bring, or not bring, bills up for a vote. If the House passes a bill, or the executive branch nominates a judge/cabinent post/etc, there should be a deadline by which the house/senate must begin addressing the issue.
 

Cheimoon

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How could he legally have done this?

I can see "lame duck year" for a POTUS on the way out as something that would be difficult to challenge and by the time ruled would probably have an inbound POTUS (and IMO what McConnell did should have been illegal but guess it's not).
What would be illegal about any of it? I suppose he would have a hard time explaining why - although the Republicans have been pretty good at packaging and selling their nonsense arguments about proceedings, so I'm sure even that wouldn't be a problem for them. For example: 'something something contested election something something wouldn't be right to do something so impactful under these circumstances'.
 

ooeat0meoo

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Justices dying or retiring is fairly common. Stepping aside specifically for political purposes isn't common at all.
No Shit!

I met Justice Ginsberg at the Alfalfa Club annual meeting in DC and the lady could barely speak (in a wheelchair) in something like 2015. She wasn't a very pleasant person, either.
It was kinda weird seeing all the tributes to her as if she was the left version of Mother Teresa.
Maybe hanging in there so long wasn't the best thing for her. She seemed miserable at the end
 

ooeat0meoo

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BREAKING NEWS:
In a rare and I mean very rare bold move by the Securities Exchange Commission had some success of late. They've been able to attack Trump allies including a media company partly founded by Steve Bannon.
Granted the SEC are usually or almost always undermined from the inside if it's an America globalist effort. So, let's not get our hopes up that the regulatory agencies in America are changing their ways.

https://www.motherjones.com/politic...onaire-benefactor-was-just-fined-539-million/
 

ooeat0meoo

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This coming weekend we have two events that might be portrayed as 'American Civil War' gatherings.

Occupy Wall Street will be getting together in Zucotti Park, NYC on Friday 17 Sept. I've been following this event in private chats for at least 6 months and it's going to be a bunch of anti-vaxxers that mostly don't like the Trump group. Lots of other leftist organizers refuse to participate because of the anti-covid elements. So, it's not going to be a huge event.

On the other hand, the Steve Bannon rally on 18 Sept will probably draw more of the far-right extremists to the US Capitol area on the 18th of September on Saturday. CNN has just issued a sorta state of emergency concerning radical right activists
 

ooeat0meoo

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The Watergate reporter/writer Bob Woodward has a new book out that has reflections of being with Trump prior to the Jan 6th insurrection.

Woodward describes how he warned Trump about how the Jan 6th rally could get out of control. He says Trump shrugged his shoulders, as if 'who cares' and went back to watching TV without saying anything.

I'd love to raise money to purchase this recent book by Woodward and have them mailed to all 500+ insurrectionists sitting in prison.
 

WI_Red

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The Watergate reporter/writer Bob Woodward has a new book out that has reflections of being with Trump prior to the Jan 6th insurrection.

Woodward describes how he warned Trump about how the Jan 6th rally could get out of control. He says Trump shrugged his shoulders, as if 'who cares' and went back to watching TV without saying anything.

I'd love to raise money to purchase this recent book by Woodward and have them mailed to all 500+ insurrectionists sitting in prison.
for as much money Woodward has/will make off of the Trump presidency he could send the books himself.
 

ooeat0meoo

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The wooing :lol:

American politics are so alien to me.
This needs proper perspective, though, most US politicians aren't this extreme. The Republican majority are beholden to two things, lobbyists and far-right Jesus freaks. Yet, they're not as outspoken as this lunatic. Politicians are mostly hustlers, but everyone knows that.

I'm not sure what this thread says more about..
Is the US government so far gone corrupt that politicians on the right can't ignore it. Or is it the far right money in think tanks and right wing propaganda creators like Bannon the source of the problem.

Prolly both equal on the scales of the driving force.
 

nimic

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This needs proper perspective, though, most US politicians aren't this extreme. The Republican majority are beholden to two things, lobbyists and far-right Jesus freaks. Yet, they're not as outspoken as this lunatic. Politicians are mostly hustlers, but everyone knows that.

I'm not sure what this thread says more about..
Is the US government so far gone corrupt that politicians on the right can't ignore it. Or is it the far right money in think tanks and right wing propaganda creators like Bannon the source of the problem.

Prolly both equal on the scales of the driving force.
The American Right is definitely pretty extreme. I am pretty sure most national GOP politicians right now support the view that the election was stolen. Certainly anyone who says it wasn't is being swiftly expelled from the fold. It's the party of Trump, and Trump is insane.
 
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VorZakone

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My prediction: we'll see more violence in the US. There's pretty much nothing that conservatives and liberals agree on these days. The discourse is completely toxic and there's some crazy hypernormalization going on where politicians aren't even pretending anymore that they're honest.
 

MrMarcello

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My prediction: we'll see more violence in the US. There's pretty much nothing that conservatives and liberals agree on these days. The discourse is completely toxic and there's some crazy hypernormalization going on where politicians aren't even pretending anymore that they're honest.
Retain power at all costs. Probably written in various manifestos around the world.
 

WPMUFC

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My prediction: we'll see more violence in the US. There's pretty much nothing that conservatives and liberals agree on these days. The discourse is completely toxic and there's some crazy hypernormalization going on where politicians aren't even pretending anymore that they're honest.
Violence and disagreement is not a bug, it is the feature of the new american right. People really need to come around to the idea that there is a new wave of american right wing that wants fascism. It may not exactly mirror German fascism but the tenets of that ideology are making itself open and proud on the American right.
 

Jericholyte2

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I don’t understand why the news organisations even show this, giving them the time of day. Only reason I can think of is to show just how pathetic these groups are, “Look at this shocking turnout to try and defend the treasonous lemmings”.
 

Mike Smalling

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I don’t understand why the news organisations even show this, giving them the time of day. Only reason I can think of is to show just how pathetic these groups are, “Look at this shocking turnout to try and defend the treasonous lemmings”.
Outrage and division is good for viewing figures. Simple as that.
 

DavidDeSchmikes

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I don’t understand why the news organisations even show this, giving them the time of day. Only reason I can think of is to show just how pathetic these groups are, “Look at this shocking turnout to try and defend the treasonous lemmings”.
Dunking on something like this always gets the clicks and outrages and views. Plus it could also stirs things up, which leads to more views and so on
 

MrMarcello

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:lol: This clown must be seeking fame amongst the far right and Qtards. Sounds a bit soft for the Qs and nutters to take serious. Channeling his inner Davey Crocket it appears judging his attire. I was waiting for him to go full on Kevin Bacon in 'JFK' "that's because you're a goddamn liberal, Mr. Prokupecz, you don't know shit."

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/us/2...surrectionists-rallygoer-prokupecz-nr-vpx.cnn
CNN reporter shows rallygoer video of Jan. 6 attack. See his reaction