2021 German Federal Election - who will replace Merkel - 6 different government coalitions possible

Lyricist

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So this weekend the 2021 German Federal Election is taking place.
Angela Merkel is not running for another term in office which means that for the first time after 16 years of Merkel's leadership Germany will get a new chancellor. Interestingly what was sure to be a one horse race has become a truly unpredictable affair, with a change in government seeming extremely likely.

Merkel's party, the conservative Christian Democratic Union CDU/CSU, has imploded in the polls after the 2021 floods in Western/Central Europe. This is partially due to a not so smooth regional response to the event. But it is mostly because the CDU/CSU's chancellor cadidate Armin Laschet was caught laughing and cracking jokes in the background of an event in one of the flood hit towns, while the German president Frank-Walter Steinmeier was giving a heartfelt speech to the people and press. Not only is Laschet the chancellor candidate but also the current Minister President (head of government of a German state) of the state where this event took place. The German public has not taken lightly to this. Laschet's approval ratings weren't great before but have since gone from bad to horrible, which has caused his party's seemingly unbeatable position to become far weaker.

The mid left social democrat party SPD with their candidate, current Vice-Chancellor Olaf Scholz, are now slight favorites in the polls ahead of the CDU/CSU with Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (The Green Party) still close in third place. Other notable parties include the FDP (classical liberalism, not social liberalism), Die Linke (The Left Party), and the afd (far right). The SPD, the historic competitor to the CDU/CSU in Germany's political landscape, had been regarded as a somewhat empty junior partner to the CDU/CSU in the last around 5+ years, as Merkel's leadership saw the approval ratings of the CDU/CSU soar through most of the last 16 years. The mistakes of the other candidates (CDU and Greens) have now given the SPD the unexpected opportunity of being the leading party in a government coalition and thus getting their candidate elected. It is really the story of resurrection, that is also perhaps connected to the German people's interest in steady leadership and continuity, as the SPD seemed to be in a somewhat historical low position. One might have thought, that the disapproval of the CDU/CSU's leadership and Laschet's behavior during the 2021 floods would've heavily improved the position of the Green Party, as Germany experienced a horrible teaser of climate change first hand. Instead, with Scholz already being Vice-Chancellor and being rather centrist, the German public has looked back to the SPD while the Green Party's poll numbers barely changed after the floods.

Likely, once the election has concluded, there will still be around 6 potential government coalitions that could even see the SPD or CDU/CSU entirely out of the government. One interesting factor in this will be whether the left party, Die Linke, will be able to surpass the Bundestag's mandatory voting threshhold of 5% of all votes, in order to even qualify for seats in the Bundestag. Their position has fluctuated between 5-10% in the polls within the last year, with them now once more being at roughly 6%. Should they gain less than 5%, they will not qualify for the Bundestag.

Truly feels like a different chapter for German politics is beginning as the time of Angela Merkel as chancellor is coming to an end.
 
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UweBein

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If SPD or CDU win, we will have another 4 years of Merkel-like politics. The country is torn berween different poles: green vs the old way, economic establishment vs economic newcomers, new vs old energy, automotive industry vs new ways of mobility, cheap rent/affordable housing vs industry /landlords, affordable housing vs ecological footprint, diminishing work force vs anti-immigration stance etc etc.
 

Sky1981

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A question to our german friends:

Does merkel's policy hers alone or does it stems from her party, kinda like no matter who's potus the DEM and GOP has their own sets of policy sets in stone. How shakey can a post Merkel era be? Say if the least likely candidate wins, what's the worst they can do policy wise?
 

UweBein

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It's not just her's. It's highly influenced by her own party and the coalition partner. Hence, I am thinking we will rather not experience a big shift.
Merkel seemed - from my point of view - to be content with dealing with issues, she did not seem to try to pursuit an own strategy.

First exit polls from 15:00:
SPD 26, CDU 24, Green 13, Liberals 14, AfD 11, Left 5.
 
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UweBein

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It's going to be a long evening.
Current polls: SPD 26, CDU 24, Green Party 14.5, Liberals 12, AfD 10, Left 5....

We will not know which will be the ruling parties today. They have to go into negotiations with each other. But the potential chancellor can be only from SPD or CDU.

Interestingly, majority of old folks have voted for the socialdemocrats and not the conservatives.
 

Rektsanwalt

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It's going to be a long evening.
Current polls: SPD 26, CDU 24, Green Party 14.5, Liberals 12, AfD 10, Left 5....

We will not know which will be the ruling parties today. They have to go into negotiations with each other. But the potential chancellor can be only from SPD or CDU.

Interestingly, majority of old folks have voted for the socialdemocrats and not the conservatives.
everything I read says 25/25%
 

DOTA

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It's going to be a long evening.
Current polls: SPD 26, CDU 24, Green Party 14.5, Liberals 12, AfD 10, Left 5....

We will not know which will be the ruling parties today. They have to go into negotiations with each other. But the potential chancellor can be only from SPD or CDU.

Interestingly, majority of old folks have voted for the socialdemocrats and not the conservatives.
Ooft.
 

Kasper

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everything I read says 25/25%
That was ZDF prognose. First extrapolation has SPD slightly ahead.

Either way, depressing result all things considered. Right wing parties with no interest to battle climate change get 45%+, great sign in these times.
 

Rektsanwalt

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That was ZDF prognose. First extrapolation has SPD slightly ahead.

Either way, depressing result all things considered. Right wing parties with no interest to battle climate change get 45%+, great sign in these times.
are you considering Union and FDP right Wing?:lol::lol::lol::lol:
 

Kasper

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are you considering Union and FDP right Wing?:lol::lol::lol::lol:
Well yes, they're on the right of the political spectrum. I'm obviously not falling for the fake progressive positions of the FDP and the CDUs pseudo claim of being "the center".
 

DOTA

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are you considering Union and FDP right Wing?:lol::lol::lol::lol:
Seems a pretty common view. I guess you can argue everyone but Die Linke and AfD are largely centrist if you want but it makes it rather difficult to discuss things using a left right spectrum if you consider nearly everyone to be in the middle.
 

Rektsanwalt

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Seems a pretty common view. I guess you can argue everyone but Die Linke and AfD are largely centrist if you want but it makes it rather difficult to discuss things using a left right spectrum if you consider nearly everyone to be in the middle.
yeah, I think it’s not an ideal concept for the current political situation. The drastic swing to the left under Merkel kind of made it useless.
I definitely do not consider the Union to be right wing.
 

berbatrick

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Young libertarian surge - in Argentina, and now in Germany. Optimistic about tackling climate change through a laissez faire future :cool:
 

GhastlyHun

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Not great, not terrible, but certainly not thrilling.
 

JuveGER

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Seems a pretty common view. I guess you can argue everyone but Die Linke and AfD are largely centrist if you want but it makes it rather difficult to discuss things using a left right spectrum if you consider nearly everyone to be in the middle.
For historical reasons „right-wing“ in German has a different connotation when categorizing parties. Few people here would seriously call them right-wing. But even in an English language setting centre-right would be more appropriate given that there is a significantly more right party in parliament and actually Nazi parties outside parliament. The FDP in particular also has quite a few policies that are fairly „progressive“.
 

Cheimoon

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It's the same problem again about right and left as overall terms: you have to separate the economic and social dimensions. I'd think the FDP and CDU/CSU are both centre-right financially, but the FDP centre-left on social issues, and CDU/CSU centre-right there as well.
 

Hansi Fick

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It's the same problem again about right and left as overall terms: you have to separate the economic and social dimensions. I'd think the FDP and CDU/CSU are both centre-right financially, but the FDP centre-left on social issues, and CDU/CSU centre-right there as well.
The FDP is the most anti-environmentalist party of them all and the least likely to support meaningful measures to combat climate change, or rather dead certain to kill any meaningful measure. The notion that they are centre-left on social issues is antiquated.
 

Rektsanwalt

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For historical reasons „right-wing“ in German has a different connotation when categorizing parties. Few people here would seriously call them right-wing. But even in an English language setting centre-right would be more appropriate given that there is a significantly more right party in parliament and actually Nazi parties outside parliament. The FDP in particular also has quite a few policies that are fairly „progressive“.
exactly
 

Rektsanwalt

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The FDP is the most anti-environmentalist party of them all and the least likely to support meaningful measures to combat climate change, or rather dead certain to kill any meaningful measure. The notion that they are centre-left on social issues is antiquated.
the most antiquated aspect of this discussion is thinking in these left and right terminologies is still appropriate
 

Kasper

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It's the same problem again about right and left as overall terms: you have to separate the economic and social dimensions. I'd think the FDP and CDU/CSU are both centre-right financially, but the FDP centre-left on social issues, and CDU/CSU centre-right there as well.
Problem is that the FDP doesn't really give a shit about same sex marriage or other socio-cultural stuff but mainly care about lowering taxes for the rich. They're a joke on "liberal" issues that are not linked to the economy.
 

DOTA

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the most antiquated aspect of this discussion is thinking in these left and right terminologies is still appropriate
I'm a bit baffled how you're determinedly arguing this and also describing what you saw as the "drastic swing to the left under Merkel".
 

Hansi Fick

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the most antiquated aspect of this discussion is thinking in these left and right terminologies is still appropriate
I realize that Klaus Ernst was driving a Porsche, but that's rather the exception proving the rule.

The FDP is right wing, and they have enough Achenbachs, Ertls, Lambsdorffs and Kubickis in their history to show for it.
 

Rektsanwalt

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I'm a bit baffled how you're determinedly arguing this and also describing what you saw as the "drastic swing to the left under Merkel".
it made sense when the Union was more on the right, hence I was referring to a swing to the left
 

JuveGER

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The FDP is right wing, and they have enough Achenbachs, Ertls, Lambsdorffs and Kubickis in their history to show for it.
Three (assuming you mean Otto Graf Lambsdorff and not his nephew) of them are dead. It is a bit silly to base your categorization of a party today on people who have been dead for decades.

The FDP is not „right-wing“, neither based on policy nor relative to the general party spectrum in Germany. If one insists on a simple categorization on a left-right scale, center-right would be more appropriate.
 

Dudu

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So will this drag out as long as it did in 2017 to find out what the final coalition will be? :smirk:
 

do.ob

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I love the "Elefantenrunde" the leaders of all parties sitting together getting shat on by two moderators.


So will this drag out as long as it did in 2017 to find out what the final coalition will be? :smirk:

Who knows. Scholz said he wants to resolve this by Christmas, but everything points two a three party ruling coalition and that's something entirely new. Another caveat is that we don't even know which three parties it will be in the end, because as things stand right now FPD and the Greens (who are fundamentally at odds with each other) can decide whether they want to make Laschet or Scholz chancellor.
 
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Revan

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The possible coalitions are:

SPD-Green-Liberals -> centrist coalition, a bit more to the left of center. Liberals in Germany are actually a center right party.

Union-Geeen-Liberals -> centrist coalition, a bit more to the right of center.

SPD-Union -> not very likely IMO because they barely get 50%, and neither would like to be in government without having the chancellor when the difference is so small.

SPD-Union-Liberals -> I think it is unlikely for the same reason.

SPD-Union-Green -> unlikely for the same reason.

My bet is that Green Party and Liberals are in coalition with one of the two big parties (who will get the chancellor). Union shot themselves in the head by not having CSU leader as chancellor candidate but going with CDU leader. Possibly this means that SPD finally gets the chancellor after 16 years of being the second biggest party but mostly in coalition with the Union.

Liberals being in government sucks though when it comes to climate change. And don’t know how that would work with The Green Party. So who knows, maybe SPD-Union-Green might happen after all.

Shame that the Left Party are nutters. SPD-Green-Left would have been great if Left were not batshit crazy.
 
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Hansi Fick

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It will be the "traffic lights coalition", I guess.
 

OutlawGER

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Jesus Christ, another one? Is this really a narrative that has taken hold with so many people? fecking deluded.
Thanks for your opinion.


As things stand, i am hoping for the Jamaica coalition (Union, Green, FDP).
 

schwalbe

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Can’t wait for Lindner to Lindner it.
 

Rektsanwalt

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Jesus Christ, another one? Is this really a narrative that has taken hold with so many people? fecking deluded.
Enlighten us with your knowledge about political history and explain us why people who think the CDU made a very noticeable shift to the left under Merkel are deluded, please. Since you're all smug and surprisingly condescending this explanation should be very easily done for you.
 

nimic

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And I'm all out of bubblegum.
it made sense when the Union was more on the right, hence I was referring to a swing to the left
Either you have to drop your assertion that it's ridiculous to still think of this in "left and right", or you have to drop your assertion that the CDU used to be right wing but took a massive swing to the left. Those positions are mutually exclusive as far as logical consistency goes.

It's eating your cake and having it too.
 

Hansi Fick

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Adds nothing to the discussion
Enlighten us with your knowledge about political history and explain us why people who think the CDU made a very noticeable shift to the left under Merkel are deluded, please. Since you're all smug and surprisingly condescending this explanation should be very easily done for you.
I'm actually too smug and condescending to explain it to you, no offense.
 

Rektsanwalt

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Either you have to drop your assertion that it's ridiculous to still think of this in "left and right", or you have to drop your assertion that the CDU used to be right wing but took a massive swing to the left. Those positions are mutually exclusive as far as logical consistency goes.

It's eating your cake and having it too.
There's no actual right wing party bar AfD in the german parliament, only former, which is why talking only about left and right when it comes to parties like SPD, Grüne, FDP and Union is nonesense nowadays. No doubt there has been aspects of said parties which made it much easier to really divide into left and right.