So this weekend the 2021 German Federal Election is taking place.
Angela Merkel is not running for another term in office which means that for the first time after 16 years of Merkel's leadership Germany will get a new chancellor. Interestingly what was sure to be a one horse race has become a truly unpredictable affair, with a change in government seeming extremely likely.
Merkel's party, the conservative Christian Democratic Union CDU/CSU, has imploded in the polls after the 2021 floods in Western/Central Europe. This is partially due to a not so smooth regional response to the event. But it is mostly because the CDU/CSU's chancellor cadidate Armin Laschet was caught laughing and cracking jokes in the background of an event in one of the flood hit towns, while the German president Frank-Walter Steinmeier was giving a heartfelt speech to the people and press. Not only is Laschet the chancellor candidate but also the current Minister President (head of government of a German state) of the state where this event took place. The German public has not taken lightly to this. Laschet's approval ratings weren't great before but have since gone from bad to horrible, which has caused his party's seemingly unbeatable position to become far weaker.
The mid left social democrat party SPD with their candidate, current Vice-Chancellor Olaf Scholz, are now slight favorites in the polls ahead of the CDU/CSU with Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (The Green Party) still close in third place. Other notable parties include the FDP (classical liberalism, not social liberalism), Die Linke (The Left Party), and the afd (far right). The SPD, the historic competitor to the CDU/CSU in Germany's political landscape, had been regarded as a somewhat empty junior partner to the CDU/CSU in the last around 5+ years, as Merkel's leadership saw the approval ratings of the CDU/CSU soar through most of the last 16 years. The mistakes of the other candidates (CDU and Greens) have now given the SPD the unexpected opportunity of being the leading party in a government coalition and thus getting their candidate elected. It is really the story of resurrection, that is also perhaps connected to the German people's interest in steady leadership and continuity, as the SPD seemed to be in a somewhat historical low position. One might have thought, that the disapproval of the CDU/CSU's leadership and Laschet's behavior during the 2021 floods would've heavily improved the position of the Green Party, as Germany experienced a horrible teaser of climate change first hand. Instead, with Scholz already being Vice-Chancellor and being rather centrist, the German public has looked back to the SPD while the Green Party's poll numbers barely changed after the floods.
Likely, once the election has concluded, there will still be around 6 potential government coalitions that could even see the SPD or CDU/CSU entirely out of the government. One interesting factor in this will be whether the left party, Die Linke, will be able to surpass the Bundestag's mandatory voting threshhold of 5% of all votes, in order to even qualify for seats in the Bundestag. Their position has fluctuated between 5-10% in the polls within the last year, with them now once more being at roughly 6%. Should they gain less than 5%, they will not qualify for the Bundestag.
Truly feels like a different chapter for German politics is beginning as the time of Angela Merkel as chancellor is coming to an end.
Angela Merkel is not running for another term in office which means that for the first time after 16 years of Merkel's leadership Germany will get a new chancellor. Interestingly what was sure to be a one horse race has become a truly unpredictable affair, with a change in government seeming extremely likely.
Merkel's party, the conservative Christian Democratic Union CDU/CSU, has imploded in the polls after the 2021 floods in Western/Central Europe. This is partially due to a not so smooth regional response to the event. But it is mostly because the CDU/CSU's chancellor cadidate Armin Laschet was caught laughing and cracking jokes in the background of an event in one of the flood hit towns, while the German president Frank-Walter Steinmeier was giving a heartfelt speech to the people and press. Not only is Laschet the chancellor candidate but also the current Minister President (head of government of a German state) of the state where this event took place. The German public has not taken lightly to this. Laschet's approval ratings weren't great before but have since gone from bad to horrible, which has caused his party's seemingly unbeatable position to become far weaker.
The mid left social democrat party SPD with their candidate, current Vice-Chancellor Olaf Scholz, are now slight favorites in the polls ahead of the CDU/CSU with Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (The Green Party) still close in third place. Other notable parties include the FDP (classical liberalism, not social liberalism), Die Linke (The Left Party), and the afd (far right). The SPD, the historic competitor to the CDU/CSU in Germany's political landscape, had been regarded as a somewhat empty junior partner to the CDU/CSU in the last around 5+ years, as Merkel's leadership saw the approval ratings of the CDU/CSU soar through most of the last 16 years. The mistakes of the other candidates (CDU and Greens) have now given the SPD the unexpected opportunity of being the leading party in a government coalition and thus getting their candidate elected. It is really the story of resurrection, that is also perhaps connected to the German people's interest in steady leadership and continuity, as the SPD seemed to be in a somewhat historical low position. One might have thought, that the disapproval of the CDU/CSU's leadership and Laschet's behavior during the 2021 floods would've heavily improved the position of the Green Party, as Germany experienced a horrible teaser of climate change first hand. Instead, with Scholz already being Vice-Chancellor and being rather centrist, the German public has looked back to the SPD while the Green Party's poll numbers barely changed after the floods.
Likely, once the election has concluded, there will still be around 6 potential government coalitions that could even see the SPD or CDU/CSU entirely out of the government. One interesting factor in this will be whether the left party, Die Linke, will be able to surpass the Bundestag's mandatory voting threshhold of 5% of all votes, in order to even qualify for seats in the Bundestag. Their position has fluctuated between 5-10% in the polls within the last year, with them now once more being at roughly 6%. Should they gain less than 5%, they will not qualify for the Bundestag.
Truly feels like a different chapter for German politics is beginning as the time of Angela Merkel as chancellor is coming to an end.
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