Might as well start another one...
2026 US Elections & Beyond
- Thread starter calodo2003
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In the latest edition of the United Hour Podcast, we interview Duncan Drasdo of MUST - covering ticket prices, new stadium, INEOS and what fans should be demanding from our club.
Also, due to technical issues we couldn't put a notice up for the previous episode which was about the game against Bournemouth and other stuff. If you'd like to listen to it, click here.
The generic congressional ballot is a good one to follow.
Dems picked up 40 seats with an 8.4 polling average lead heading into the 2018 mid terms.
Right now they are only up 4.8 in the generic, so if the election were held today, I could see them picking up somewhere in the 20s.
That could of course change over time with everything Trump is doing.
The important bit will be whether the Dems can pick the four key Senate seats they're after to flip the Senate, which will be hard.
They might win North Carolina, but I think that's it. I think it will be hard for them to win Ohio (Brown just lost it in 2024, hard to see him winning it now), I cannot see them winning Alaska, and every cycle is supposed to be the cycle Collins is supposed to finally lose, only for her to win by +10.
They also need to defend Georgia, and also Michigan where their incumbent retired.
I think it will be a split congress, 52-48 for Republicans in the senate, with a small majority (probably in the region of 220-225 seats controlled) by Democrats in the House.
2026's Kanye?
Nicki Minaj is a Trumper? 
fathead and phatass
She wants a pardon for her pedo brother.Nicki Minaj is a Trumper?
Ah, explains it.
Fake news, AI and corrupt polling and media.
Wag the Dog scenario coming up...
Unfortunately for Rs, he's not running so the generic ballot is what will likely decide how many seats are won by the Dems. And that's still pretty tight.
Democrats should go with Trump and Miller calling all gun owners terrorists. Hammer home the message that Trump will go for gun owners after ice is done with immigrants.
Quiet part out loud...
These are my staff & friends as I live adjacent to campus. It was an egregious political sham to close the polling center on campus to save a pittance...
This is wild. In my city at the last election there were 4 polling stations within 10 minutes walk from my flat.
Well, it seems Trump has started to lose even the most far right nutters.....
"If a state can't run an election, I think the people behind me should do something about it."
It sounds like an opening line from a movie about how the United States descended into chaos. What happens if the midterms don't go his way? Do the rats abandon ship because of the way the wind is blowing? Does ICE get more funding to terrorize its own citizens? Whatever the result, he'll be as demented as ever.
Why does the FCC have such a bee in its bonnet about this guy Talarico?
It's more a CBS problem than an FCC problem, as far as I can tell. The FCC has been talking about revoking the equal time exception for talk shows, because of a perceived political bias, but crucially they haven't done it yet. CBS then decided to take matters into their own hands and not allow the Talarico interview to air. You could certainly speculate that the Ellisons are actually afraid of losing a Texas senate seat, but Talarico has also been critical of Israel, which is not something that pleases Bari Weiss.
Edit: Also, this is just peak Streisand effect. No chance this Talarico interview would have gotten this much attention, if they had just allowed to air normally.
Don't they know that when they do this, it always turns out backfiring?
Talarico has had 100x the attention because of CBS not allowing him to appear on network.
And I think this is Talarico specific. They can't deal with that common sense, religious message that he gives. He burst the links between Church and State that the GOP have been working so hard to create.
Doesn't make much sense for them to fear Talarico, Texas, despite some hype every now and then, is simply just a red state at the end of the day.
The main population centers are blue and they are the areas where the population is increasing, Texas is nowhere near as red as it used to be
There has been severe Democratic over performance in all kinds of special elections since Trump took office again. Hispanic voters are swinging back to Dems in droves. I wonder if it’s enough to make this Texas race interesting.
Like you I’m probably leaning towards a no, but let’s see.
Eh, its about as red as it was 10-15 years ago, it moved towards the left, and then it moved back again.
About that population increase, i remember reading something, back in 2018, that Beto won people native to Texas(dunno how they define that, but nevermind), but lost the votes of people moving in.
Just speculation, but, the ever-increasing population boom to Texas probably isn't helping dems much, might well be mostly better-of Californians etc who dont wanna pay state income tax.
Beto lost, IMO, because he of the 'we're coming for your guns" statement after the El Paso shooting, as soon as he said that he was toast
Not the same timeline, that was after the senate race.
Anyway, maybe Texas can get close again, but i sure wouldn't count on it.
Keep 'em coming...
It's the hope that gets you. Despite Trump ruining the economy, the government, healthcare and now starting a war with Iran, the GOP are still happy to dance to whatever tune his addled brain comes up with. It's honestly unbelievable in the most literal sense.
Jasmine Crockett Vs James Talarico is very interesting. CBS not airing his Collbert interview live may be what leads to the Dems winning a statewide election in over 30 years...
He's not a well person so anything he says can be disregarded. He loves Trump when he's being as awful as possible and hates him when he acts like a generic republican president. Basically he just wants him to be Hitler so bad.
He is right in terms of Trump misleading the MAGA base, be it with foreign intervention, releasing the Epstein files or draining the swamp.
Damn it's taken a while to get here...
There are primaries today in TX and NC. Races to watch:
Texas:
- Both senate primaries should be interesting, and the MAGA one might go to a runoff.
- Gonzalez is still running for re-election. Interesting to see if he wins his primary. His opponent is a guns rights YouTuber....
NC:
- The MAGA Senate (Tillis is retiring) primary, not because Whatley is going to lose, but because he is tightly tied to Trump, so interested in how much support he bleeds.
- The Dem primary in the Chapel Hill/Durham/Pittsboro area. The incumbent is big tied to AIPAC, so feck her.
Texas:
- Both senate primaries should be interesting, and the MAGA one might go to a runoff.
- Gonzalez is still running for re-election. Interesting to see if he wins his primary. His opponent is a guns rights YouTuber....
NC:
- The MAGA Senate (Tillis is retiring) primary, not because Whatley is going to lose, but because he is tightly tied to Trump, so interested in how much support he bleeds.
- The Dem primary in the Chapel Hill/Durham/Pittsboro area. The incumbent is big tied to AIPAC, so feck her.
I just don’t see how the Dems can take back the Senate this cycle, short of an economic collapse, which isn’t likely anytime soon.
They are defending Peters open seat in MI and Ossoff seat in GA. Pickup chances are slim with ME, NC, OH special probably the only even slightly realistic path to a majority of 1, providing they don’t lose anything. OH is solid red nowadays and Brown already lost his sauce last round, ME is Stockholm Syndrome’d by Collins, that leaves NC as probably their best shot with Cooper as candidate, but Ds haven’t won a federal election there since what, 2008?
They are defending Peters open seat in MI and Ossoff seat in GA. Pickup chances are slim with ME, NC, OH special probably the only even slightly realistic path to a majority of 1, providing they don’t lose anything. OH is solid red nowadays and Brown already lost his sauce last round, ME is Stockholm Syndrome’d by Collins, that leaves NC as probably their best shot with Cooper as candidate, but Ds haven’t won a federal election there since what, 2008?
If anyone in this state stands a chance to pick up a Senate seat in NC it is going to be Cooper. He was very popular here, with both parties, and this State really is dictated by voter enthusiasm when it comes to statewide races.
The logic behind it is a blue wave election where Trump isn't on the ballot (which means Rs can't rely on him to turn out voters), but is simultaneously incredibly unpopular because of everything from economics to Epstein to now foreign war. You shouldn't therefore look at things in terms of individual races, but instead how big a turnout the Dems can generate in early voting and in Nov.
TX Race is going to be tight.
Wasserman's account is pretty good tonight. He says Talarico is the overwhelming favorite at the moment.