If that is something to go by we are massing 2,54 points per game so by that in 19 games we would get around 48 point for the remaining 19 fixtures.
Would that win us the league I would say so.
45 points for the title
- Thread starter VanGaalEra
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Would that win us the league I would say so.
To be fair, I think Cavani is a nailed on starter now, he'll be rotated slightly but he's as fit as Martial & Rashford, runs more, he's a beast. Not to mention he's got bags of world class ability to go with it. I reckon he could be the catalyst to our title race now, he gets the goals we didn't used to get, and either Martial or Rashford can scrap it out on the LW. That might be good for the team, if they're not nailed on starting, and have to earn a LW spot. We'd have a good impact sub every single week on that side too.
I think 85 is to 'have a chance' at the title, as I can see Man City getting around that number or probably bettering it slightly. I would however be surprised if a team significantly tops 90 this season.
For arguments sake, I'll assume City win their game in hand. So, they're on 41/57, ourselves on 40/57.
If 85 is a realistic target, City would be aiming to turn a loss into a win in the next 19 games when compared with the first (Or a draw into a win and a loss into a draw if you want to look at it that way). That isn't much scope for improvement, but considering they're still in four competitions there is a lot of football to play once we get to mid February in particular.
Unfortunately for us and the rest of the league, I think Man City have arguably the most scope for improvement in the second half of the season - if Aguero is fit and sharp for most of it. I think the game at the Etihad, at least for now if the teams remain evenly matched, could be a pivotal game. If there's a winner in that match, I'd quite fancy them to be lifting the title come seasons end.
As for ourselves, we probably need to turn a draw and a loss into wins if we expect to have a chance. I suspect we will have to beat City away again if are to lift the trophy. Unless of course, there is a drop in form by either side at some point.
It isn't just about Manchester though, I think both teams from Merseyside and Leicester, maybe even Spurs will have something to say about their chances. Whilst I'd never say never, if I had to count a team out right now whom I think will drop to 4th or worse, it would have to be Leicester. Not because they aren't doing great, but they have lost the joint most games out of the current top 6, along with Everton. Regardless of this season being a bit of a freak, I still don't think that the team that wins the title can afford to lose 6 games. Leicester and Everton have lost 5, they won't lose 0 in the remaining 19 games (21 games for Everton).
They're both behind teams in the first 19 and at the business end, they aren't getting more points in those 19 games than City, United, or probably Liverpool & Spurs either. So, regardless of having a good season, they're out for me. I think most would agree, it'll take a vast improvement for them to win the title (eg. Going from 38/57 to 50/57 in each half of the season).
At the start of the season, my top 6 was (somewhat hilariously) this at the start of the season:
1. Man City
2. Liverpool
3. Man Utd
4. Arsenal
5. Chelsea
6. Spurs
Now, I'd be thinking more like this:
1. Man City
2. Man Utd
3. Liverpool
4. Spurs
5. Leicester
6. Everton
Spurs/Leicester is a bit of a toss up, maybe United/Liverpool or hopefully City/United too
For arguments sake, I'll assume City win their game in hand. So, they're on 41/57, ourselves on 40/57.
| Team | Win | Draw | Loss |
| City | 12 | 5 | 2 |
| United | 12 | 4 | 3 |
If 85 is a realistic target, City would be aiming to turn a loss into a win in the next 19 games when compared with the first (Or a draw into a win and a loss into a draw if you want to look at it that way). That isn't much scope for improvement, but considering they're still in four competitions there is a lot of football to play once we get to mid February in particular.
Unfortunately for us and the rest of the league, I think Man City have arguably the most scope for improvement in the second half of the season - if Aguero is fit and sharp for most of it. I think the game at the Etihad, at least for now if the teams remain evenly matched, could be a pivotal game. If there's a winner in that match, I'd quite fancy them to be lifting the title come seasons end.
As for ourselves, we probably need to turn a draw and a loss into wins if we expect to have a chance. I suspect we will have to beat City away again if are to lift the trophy. Unless of course, there is a drop in form by either side at some point.
It isn't just about Manchester though, I think both teams from Merseyside and Leicester, maybe even Spurs will have something to say about their chances. Whilst I'd never say never, if I had to count a team out right now whom I think will drop to 4th or worse, it would have to be Leicester. Not because they aren't doing great, but they have lost the joint most games out of the current top 6, along with Everton. Regardless of this season being a bit of a freak, I still don't think that the team that wins the title can afford to lose 6 games. Leicester and Everton have lost 5, they won't lose 0 in the remaining 19 games (21 games for Everton).
They're both behind teams in the first 19 and at the business end, they aren't getting more points in those 19 games than City, United, or probably Liverpool & Spurs either. So, regardless of having a good season, they're out for me. I think most would agree, it'll take a vast improvement for them to win the title (eg. Going from 38/57 to 50/57 in each half of the season).
At the start of the season, my top 6 was (somewhat hilariously) this at the start of the season:
1. Man City
2. Liverpool
3. Man Utd
4. Arsenal
5. Chelsea
6. Spurs
Now, I'd be thinking more like this:
1. Man City
2. Man Utd
3. Liverpool
4. Spurs
5. Leicester
6. Everton
Spurs/Leicester is a bit of a toss up, maybe United/Liverpool or hopefully City/United too
I think that applies to most teams to be honest, no one looks that convincing it isn't just us. Games are being won with small margins, it'll catch up to some and others will step up just in time.
We’ve improved, but we’re still a work in progress & a title race is about 2 years ahead of schedule. I still think we have too many technically limited players starting most games to go all the way. But we’ll see, stranger things have happened. The right side is a huge concern for me right now. I feel like we might need to upgrade on AWB & we definitely need a right winger. Then there’s DM & CB too. There’s still pieces to put in place. I hope Ole is backed in the summer regardless of where we finish. I think for us to get back to the level we all believe we should be we’re probably looking at a new RB, CB, DM, RW & striker, as we have to consider Cavani’s age. It’s a gradual process.
If you'd watched a lot of City games I think you'd be surprised how narrow a lot of their wins have been. They are finding ways to win just like United have been.
If Pogba maintain this form until the end, we will be in the mix.
I can only imagine when the attack finally sort themselves out (God please, I'm losing patience) and Bruno get back to his best, we'll be unstoppable.
City and Liverpool is only better than us because they've won things.
I can only imagine when the attack finally sort themselves out (God please, I'm losing patience) and Bruno get back to his best, we'll be unstoppable.
City and Liverpool is only better than us because they've won things.
85 pts to win and I am happy. Just give that experience to our players.
I thought we had a bit of the SAF moments recently: do what you need to do to win, not what you can do to win.
We're not playing at full potential at all if we do not need to.
It's worth bearing mind that City have two games still to be rescheduled, as well as a League Cup final to play. With the luck they get in FA Cup and Champions League draws, it's not unlikely that they will be playing a game every 3/4 days from now until the end of the season. I'm not convinced their squad is up to that level of sustained punishment.
Don’t lose to City, Liverpool and Leicester and continue to scrappily win the other games (that we should be winning) and it’s ours I think! It won’t be a year where any team is remembered for playing champagne football but it’s just about getting over the line.
none of our rivals have a poacher like Cavani though which makes me think we just might do it.
none of our rivals have a poacher like Cavani though which makes me think we just might do it.
If the argument was that City would get 90 points - it's not pointless. Of course it applies to everyone - but I have never said anyone would get 90 points. I am almost certain no-one will get close to 90 points.
I am saying - only City have the quality to reach 90 points with the points they have at this stage of the season. I don't for a second believe we can pick up so many more points from the next 19 games than we have so far - and I don't for a second believe Liverpool can either. But the league is too competitive for it to happen. Anyone picking up 45 points from the last 19 games will have done an unbelievable finish to the season, no-one will manage 50. That just wont happen.
I can't help but feel that to win the title we need one of Rashford/Cavani/Martial/Pogba to have a world class season from now on, besides Bruno continuing to get the numbers he has been getting. Its not impossible but that's what it would take. Having said that, 45 points from 19 games is pretty much doable given our points per game collected since Bruno arrived, if you remove the period of start of this season till first international break.
Like Ole said, our biggest strength at the moment is our fitness which is unreal change over the last few years when our team would be one of the most unfit in the PL.
Like Ole said, our biggest strength at the moment is our fitness which is unreal change over the last few years when our team would be one of the most unfit in the PL.
Agree that would put us on 88pts, I can see it being lower than that by whichever team wins it. 90pts will definitely win it.
Still could see Diallo deliver something on that RW before the season is out, yes I will admit that we really need a starter there but maybe he could pop up with a crucial goal or maybe even assist in a tight game to get us the win.
Personally I would say that CB, DM & RW are the ones which most need addressing this summer, in regards to a RB we just need some competition for AWB and expect Eddy to sign on for another season then look to go all in for Haaland, if he decides to go elsewhere then ensure we have enough time to sign someone else.
I agree. I may have been too harsh in my initial assessment.
Some random stats.
xG this season:
Liverpool - 32.89
City - 31.6
Us - 30.37
xG conceded this season:
City - 14.04
Liverpool - 19.46
Us - 23.76
Interpret that how you will.
xG this season:
Liverpool - 32.89
City - 31.6
Us - 30.37
xG conceded this season:
City - 14.04
Liverpool - 19.46
Us - 23.76
Interpret that how you will.
It could well come down to if City prioritise the Champions League in the later stages.
Also... I feel like we need to go for Liverpool on Sunday. Another setback could see their morale take an almost critical hit.
Also... I feel like we need to go for Liverpool on Sunday. Another setback could see their morale take an almost critical hit.