7.7% chance conversion rate

[Schmeichel's Cartwheel]

Lowest chance conversion rate in the league. The only player who seems capable of putting the ball in the net on a consistent basis is Bruno, who isn’t even a striker.

So what’s the answer? Wether you’re Ole in or out he can’t put the ball in the net for us, this is something the players have to take accountability for.

Maybe time to bring Cavani & Donny into the starting eleven?

 

[Paul_Scholes18]

I thought Ole was supposed to help our forwards and improve them?

 

[harms]

Maybe wait a little bit? Just last season everyone would rightly say that in Martial and Greenwood we’ve had two of the most clinical finishers in the league.

 

[Carl]

Unsirprising. Cavani is our only striker, and he's understandably rusty with his best days behind him.

Shambolic that we didn't significantly strengthen the forward line in the off season.

 

[Schmeichel's Cartwheel]

I thought Ole was supposed to help our forwards and improve them?

Well he can’t physically put the ball in the net for them. Martial has missed his last 10 one on ones. That is shocking

 

[Greck]

Maybe I'm being selectively biased but I never get the feeling the quality of chances being created are consistently great in the first place. Is there a stat to help confirm or disprove this probable bias?

 

[Borys]

Don't change anything, we're improving. Give it time. It can't stay on that level for ever.

Maybe I'm being selectively biased but I never get the feeling the quality of chances being created are consistently great in the first place. Is there a stat to help confirm or disprove this probable bias?

https://www.redcafe.net/threads/match-stats-data-perspective.459041/

I think that's what you're looking for.

 

[RuudTom83]

Mason is a huge miss...getting the first goal is always more difficult than adding a 3rd or 4th.

The best form United have had over the last 12 months is down to Bruno + Mason.

Everyone else in the front line blows somewhere between lukewarm and cold.

 

[Withnail]

Maybe wait a little bit? Just last season everyone would rightly say that in Martial and Greenwood we’ve had two of the most clinical finishers in the league.

Wait? And don't jump to conclusions?

It's a novel approach for the caf but it might just work.

 

[Volumiza]

Lowest chance conversion rate in the league. The only player who seems capable of putting the ball in the net on a consistent basis is Bruno, who isn’t even a striker.

So what’s the answer? Wether you’re Ole in or out he can’t put the ball in the net for us, this is something the players have to take accountability for.

Maybe time to bring Cavani & Donny into the starting eleven?

Depends on what our aspirations are. If we want to challenge anytime soon we have to buy one, orpreferably two players who actually know how to score consistently.

We could persist with Rashford and Martial but there’s nothing to suggest that they can provide a consistent goal threat and increase that conversion rate.

 

[littleman]

Well he can’t physically put the ball in the net for them. Martial has missed his last 10 one on ones. That is shocking

Yeah only when their conversion improves do we attribute Ole to the equation.

If either Martial or Rashford became clinical, we’d say Ole did it.

Now they haven’t, we say he can’t do their job for them. Or we start saying Mou ruined their trajectory.

 

[soapythecat]

But yeah, Ole is a good manager at this level.

 

[lsd]

I thought Ole was supposed to help our forwards and improve them?

Difficult when one of them refuses to move

 

[harms]

We could persist with Rashford and Martial but there’s nothing to suggest that they can provide a consistent goal threat and increase that conversion rate.

Is there really nothing to suggest that their rates may improve? We’ve been over performing our xG for years now, with Martial being one of the main culprits (and Greenwood, of course, once he came through), but what we’ve seen over the last few months somehow completely negates it?

 

[horsechoker]

This will be short lived

 

[united_99]

Yeah only when their conversion improves do we attribute Ole to the equation.

If either Martial or Rashford became clinical, we’d say Ole did it.

Now they haven’t, we say he can’t do their job for them. Or we start saying Mou ruined their trajectory.

Or you can separate the two. We need to create more, that’s on Ole. But the strikers definitely need to improve their current form. They can do much better as they showed last season.
Spurs scored 2 goals yesterday with 2 shots on target and 4 shots altogether.

 

[Smores]

Difficult when one of them refuses to move

If he was refusing to do what the coaches asked of him he wouldn't be selected in the first place.

 

[el3mel]

Rashford's finishing is mostly hit and miss.

Martial is usually clinical enough but he's way too moody and when he's not in mood he's useless on the pitch.

 

[Will Singh]

Why can't you blame Ole?

They've got people employed to analyse our performances down to the players diets and this information is passed to Ole who then acts upon it. If we are discussing the stats on here and don't have to be rocket scientists to work out the solution then why can't we blame Ole if the conversion rate is not improved in the next few months??

 

[RedChisel]

Somehow we've managed to fill a squad with players who can't score goals and others who can't be bothered to try. Absolute insanity.

 

[Volumiza]

Is there really nothing to suggest that their rates may improve? We’ve been over performing our xG for years now, with Martial being one of the main culprits (and Greenwood, of course, once he came through), but what we’ve seen over the last few months somehow completely negates it?

While I don’t think the conversion rate will stay quite that low it would surprise me massively if Rashford and Martial become more than what we’ve seen from them over the last 2 years.

They both have very similar flaws and while one can look a world beater in one game, the other can score a great goal in another I just don’t see any evidence that this should be our attacking line.

Rashford maybe can develop but not Martial in the same team. I mean, it could be that I’m just old fashioned but I can’t help but wish we had a proper CF with two pacey and direct attackers either side.

I do have high hopes for Greenwood mind and would be interested to see what effect a new manager / coach could have on Rashford and Martial but in response to your point about exceeding XG, I really am a slave to what my eyes see on the pitch and I just find myself feeling frustrated with our attack more often than not.

 

[JJ12]

I thought Ole was supposed to help our forwards and improve them?

He did last season - now they’ve gone backwards. I don’t think Martial is consistent enough to be a starting 9.

 

[Leftback99]

We had this before under Mourinho. I remember everyone saying it was about coaching then as well. It wasn't.

 

[VeevaVee]

Martial is a problem. You can’t be taking what could easily end up half a season to start scoring.

 

[charlenefan]

Rashford I've heard is fecked again, like he was before his back completely broke last season when it was clear to see it was bothering him
Martial's season has been fecked so far a well with that red card, basically lost him for 4 whole games
Greenwood's clearly had some off the field issues

And our board decided not to go all out for our number 1 target and attacker

 

[Chipper]

Maybe I'm being selectively biased but I never get the feeling the quality of chances being created are consistently great in the first place. Is there a stat to help confirm or disprove this probable bias?

Well you could divide every team's season total xG by their total number of shots to find expected goals per shot.

fbref.com has that stat although they like to strip out penalties in it and go with non-penalty expected goals per shot (npxG/Sh). Could easily make a table using the full xG based off that data too and include penalties.

You were right essentially, the chances we create are shite outside of penalties.

Edit: They're not necessarily chances I suppose, lets call them attempts. We're taking on shots with little chance of scoring more often than other teams.

 

[VivaRonaldo85]

Buy Haaland, a top class number 9..... ah ok that ship has sailed

 

[Schmeichel's Cartwheel]

Yeah only when their conversion improves do we attribute Ole to the equation.

If either Martial or Rashford became clinical, we’d say Ole did it.

Now they haven’t, we say he can’t do their job for them. Or we start saying Mou ruined their trajectory.

The point is martial is going through on goal & missing. That’s not a training ground thing, the blame for missing one on ones fall solely on the striker

 

[Borys]

Well you could divide every team's season total xG by their total number of shots to find expected goals per shot.

fbref.com has that stat although they like to strip out penalties in it and go with non-penalty expected goals per shot (npxG/Sh). Could easily make a table using the full xG based off that data too and include penalties.

You were right essentially, the chances we create are shite outside of penalties.

Edit: They're not necessarily chances I suppose, lets call them attempts. We're taking on shots with little chance of scoring more often than other teams.

Will take a look at that, but it isn't necessarily bad. It depends on strategy. I'd expect teams with very high xG per shot to play counter attacking football - see Tottenham yesterday as a prime example.

Edit: does xG depend on who's taking the shot?

 

[Chipper]

Will take a look at that, but it isn't necessarily bad. It depends on strategy. I'd expect teams with very high xG per shot to play counter attacking football - see Tottenham yesterday as a prime example.

Edit: does xG depend on who's taking the shot?

Well yes, it's not necessarily a bad thing to have a low chance of scoring your shots provided you have enough shots to make up for it. It's also not necessarily great for all your shots to have a better chance of scoring if you don't shoot often enough to start with.

You want balance like Liverpool do. Lots of shots (most in the league), each shot having a relatively higher chance of going in compared to other teams (3rd best in the league). We're not doing too bad on shot count but they're not really gilt-edged chances s lot of the time.

No, xG is calculated versus the average player.

 

[Borys]

Well yes, it's not necessarily a bad thing to have a low chance of scoring your shots provided you have enough shots to make up for it. It's also not necessarily great for all your shots to have a better chance of scoring if you don't shoot often enough to start with.

You want balance like Liverpool do. Lots of shots (most in the league), each shot having a relatively higher chance of going in compared to other teams (3rd best in the league). We're not doing too bad on shot count but they're not really gilt-edged chances s lot of the time.

No, xG is calculated versus the average player.

Exactly. It's hard to draw conclusions based on xG/shot. Because team with counter attacking approach will have high xG/shot but low number of shots. On the other side, possession oriented team will take a lot of shots from half-chances, so they will have low xG/shot. However, the number of shots will be high. So it's an indicator how team plays, but not much else.

Makes sense to calculate xG/shot x number of shots. But total xG per game does the same.

 

[harms]

While I don’t think the conversion rate will stay quite that low it would surprise me massively if Rashford and Martial become more than what we’ve seen from them over the last 2 years.

They both have very similar flaws and while one can look a world beater in one game, the other can score a great goal in another I just don’t see any evidence that this should be our attacking line.

Rashford maybe can develop but not Martial in the same team. I mean, it could be that I’m just old fashioned but I can’t help but wish we had a proper CF with two pacey and direct attackers either side.

I do have high hopes for Greenwood mind and would be interested to see what effect a new manager / coach could have on Rashford and Martial but in response to your point about exceeding XG, I really am a slave to what my eyes see on the pitch and I just find myself feeling frustrated with our attack more often than not.

Is this a thread about the conversion rate? Then I would like to ask you which Martial have you watched over the past few years.

The talk about their inconsistency in terms of their overall performance is a different one. Completely different one, in fact, that has pretty much nothing to do with the OP and the conversion rate. So far in his career Martial has showed very much an above-average finishing ability, in fact it had been one of his most consistent traits over the years.

 

[Volumiza]

Is this a thread about the conversion rate? Then I would like to ask you which Martial have you watched over the past few years.

The talk about their inconsistency in terms of their overall performance is a different one. Completely different one, in fact, that has pretty much nothing to do with the OP and the conversion rate. So far in his career Martial has showed very much an above-average finishing ability, in fact it had been one of his most consistent traits over the years.

The thread is alluding to this season no? And while that graph looks impressive and judging by the date in it is illustrating that purple patch he had, the Martial I’m watching is the current one who can’t seem to get anywhere near the action.

 

[SER19]

Last season rashford Greenwood and martial scored more than Liverpools famous front 3. I guarantee that the exact same people moaning about Solskjaer here, didn't feel inclined to comment on that at all.

It's tiresome, shallow and opportunistic moaning.

 

[Schmeichel's Cartwheel]

Is this a thread about the conversion rate? Then I would like to ask you which Martial have you watched over the past few years.

The talk about their inconsistency in terms of their overall performance is a different one. Completely different one, in fact, that has pretty much nothing to do with the OP and the conversion rate. So far in his career Martial has showed very much an above-average finishing ability, in fact it had been one of his most consistent traits over the years.

Martial used to be ice cold I don’t know wtf has happened but he misses almost every one on one now

 

[Tom Cato]

I thought Ole was supposed to help our forwards and improve them?

I'm not sure if we can blame anyone but the player when he can't put the ball in the net alone vs the goaltender like yesterday. Martial should have had a hattrick before halftime.

Martial's finishing % this season is a concern, albeit it's still early days.

 

[harms]

The thread is alluding to this season no?

Depends on what our aspirations are. If we want to challenge anytime soon we have to buy one, orpreferably two players who actually know how to score consistently.

We could persist with Rashford and Martial but there’s nothing to suggest that they can provide a consistent goal threat and increase that conversion rate.

I mean?

Calling Martial's previous career a purple patch while basing your view on a couple of months of the current season doesn't seem right somehow.

 

[Volumiza]

Calling Martial's previous career a purple patch while basing your view on a couple of months of the current season doesn't seem right somehow.

The thread title is for this season? And yes, I view Martial as an incredibly patchy player and regardless of past percentages, I can only judge on current form when a down spell lasts this long. He’s not playing well currently and I’ve never been convinced he’s the man to get us goals consistently over the course of one season let alone multiple seasons. Whether he’s been clinical in the past is one thing, but we’re not seeing it now are we? Something isn’t working with him.

 

[Chipper]

Exactly. It's hard to draw conclusions based on xG/shot. Because team with counter attacking approach will have high xG/shot but low number of shots. On the other side, possession oriented team will take a lot of shots from half-chances, so they will have low xG/shot. However, the number of shots will be high. So it's an indicator how team plays, but not much else.

Makes sense to calculate xG/shot x number of shots. But total xG per game does the same.

Of course, that's the bottom line figure for xG when it comes down to it. I suppose you could also adjust for strength of opposition faced so far but that's a lot more more work so it's near enough.

I only brought that other stuff up because of the specific context of the thread. OP talking about chance conversion rate being low, Greck asking the question as to whether our chances were that great to begin with, presumably to try and tease out whether we were missing big chances or just shooting from bad positions. Chance quality doesn't look too high on that basis.

We could skip both chance conversion rate and xG per shot and go straight to xG per game like you say (or total xG if we're willing to ignore that some teams have played more than others). So we're on 1.37 xG per game on fbref, ranked 9th. Take penalties out of equation and they think we're worth exactly 1 goal a game in open play, ranked 11th. They have us down for 12 goals, must be because one was an OG and they've omitted that from their calculations unless they made an error.

Or if we prefer understat's slightly different xG model, they think we should have scored 10.83 so far, which is ranked 12th and have done quite well to have scored 13.

At Understat as you probably already know we can see who they reckon is doing well or not in terms of tucking away chances. With Rashford and Martial not scoring that often so far this season they don't think it's because they're missing lots of chances, more that they're not having good chances to begin with. They think Martial should be on 1 goal (to the nearest goal) and Rashford's 2 so far is about right.

 

[Lee565]

Yeah but who needs clinical strikers when our strikers are good at the build up play, that was the reason why fans were happy to see lukaku go in favour of martial and rashford being our strikers.