7.7% chance conversion rate

[MadDogg]

Is he normally clinical? Seems to me this narrative (not from you) that he's ice cold in front of goal stems from his first season at the club. That was what 5 years ago now?

I remember him going clean through away to Newcastle in Jose's second season and hit it straight at the keeper. I remember having only Alison to bear at Anfield last season and he skied it

I don't think he's clinical at all

Everybody will miss some good chances. We tend to forget or just not notice how many good chances players from other teams miss.

Compared to most strikers Martial is better than most. Up until 12 months ago there were quite a few years where if a chance fell to one of our players it would definitely have been Martial that we'd hope for. Obviously Greenwood (who is also struggling with his finishing this season) has changed that, and possibly Bruno as well although he does tend to miss quite a few good chances himself.

 

[Borys]

Goals change games. It’s incredibly frustrating, we miss sitters at 0-0 then concede. If Martial had scored that chance last night we’d probably have won the game, then all this negativity is gone. We’d be through to KO stages and looking forward to the weekend. Instead the Ole out thread explodes once again just because Martial thinks he’s playing rugby. We’d be competing for the league title if we had Haaland instead of Martial.

We'd be competing for leage title if we had Martial on last season form.

Everybody will miss some good chances. We tend to forget or just not notice how many good chances players from other teams miss.

Compared to most strikers Martial is better than most. Up until 12 months ago there were quite a few years where if a chance fell to one of our players it would definitely have been Martial that we'd hope for. Obviously Greenwood (who is also struggling with his finishing this season) has changed that, and possibly Bruno as well although he does tend to miss quite a few good chances himself.

Well I don't know if I agree with that statement. It makes sense obviously, but when you watch Liverpool, Chelsea, ManCity play, they seem to have no problem finishing chances we fire wide or at the keeper. They hit similar number of shots on target/total shots too.

 

[Chipper]

Analyzing total xG is pointless for a game like yesterday. I'm pretty sure we were on top until their goal (we had some really good chances and kept them rather quiet in first 20mins of second half), and it all went south from there after Fred the Red. We had to attack and we were in 10 men. Should Martial have scored at least one of his big chances, it's PSG who would be chasing game and we would be counter-attacking them.
Understat provided xG in time-series chart, what is more interesting to analyse, but does that only for EPL. Does anybody know if there's some other place I can see it for Champions League games?

Depends what you're using it to analyse I'd have thought. The ebb and flow of the game, who was on top and why things changed, it doesn't say much about that at all.

Still, the chances that were created were the chances that were created so you can still look at how efficient both teams were in taking them when they arose, just don't use it to see why they arose.

 

[Borys]

Depends what you're using it to analyse I'd have thought. The ebb and flow of the game, who was on top and why things changed, it doesn't say much about that at all.

Still, the chances that were created were the chances that were created so you can still look at how efficient both teams were in taking them when they arose, just don't use it to see why they arose.

Yes, good point. But I believe those xG parameters are used to analyze how efficient was team in terms of chances created and conceded. But In the end, half of that PSG total xG score was probably in last 10mins of the game when we were wide open chasing result in 10 men (again, context missing). Until then I thought we were on par. It'd be great to see time graph though.

Martial missing two sitters was turning point of the game.

 

[Withnail]

So bizarre to see Martial struggle this season after such a clinical campaign last season. Seems to have completely regressed.

Regressed to what?

I don't think he's ever had a drought like this.

His goals per 90 stats for the past three seasons are:

2019/2020: 0.58
2018/2019: 0.55
2017/2018: 0.51

In a regular non injury hit season where you're a first team player that strike rate will net you somewhere around 20-25 goals.

This season he has two goals, only 1 of which was from open play in 1069 mins.

Hopefully, he can get it together but you'd have to conclude that this run of form is the outlier and he'll get back to scoring goals soon.

Spoiler: This season

 

[Smores]

Everybody will miss some good chances. We tend to forget or just not notice how many good chances players from other teams miss.

Compared to most strikers Martial is better than most. Up until 12 months ago there were quite a few years where if a chance fell to one of our players it would definitely have been Martial that we'd hope for. Obviously Greenwood (who is also struggling with his finishing this season) has changed that, and possibly Bruno as well although he does tend to miss quite a few good chances himself.

Yeah i don't get the narrative that's formed recently that our strikers should finish every chance and any save is a worldie from the opposition keeper. Players sometimes miss easy chances and then score even harder ones.

As a team we should be creating enough opportunities that it's not down to one or two moments whether we win a game or not.

 

[Borys]

Yeah i don't get the narrative that's formed recently that our strikers should finish every chance and any save is a worldie from the opposition keeper. Players sometimes miss easy chances and then score even harder ones.

As a team we should be creating enough opportunities that it's not down to one or two moments whether we win a game or not.

The point is the difference between us and Liverpool, City, and Chelsea is not the number of chances created, but conversion rate.

We are creating number and quality of chances at the same level as in the Golden period after lock down (which often seems to be reference point).

 

[Chipper]

Yes, good point. But I believe those xG parameters are used to analyze how efficient was team in terms of chances created and conceded. But In the end, half of that PSG total xG score was probably in last 10mins of the game when we were wide open chasing result in 10 men (again, context missing). Until then I thought we were on par. It'd be great to see time graph though.

Martial missing two sitters was turning point of the game.

I'm trying to look for the xG timeline too. I suppose you could sort of put one together yourself based on incidents we know that happened in the match but it wouldn't be 100% accurate or detailed. Martial is 0.9 on fbref for xG and his last attempt on goal was on 57 minutes so we know that all that xG could be given to us as a team by that point in the match, before their second/the red card and that he probably should have scored 1. There will be some events where you wouldn't be able to piece together at all like that though, Neymar's goals/shot being some of them. We can see he had 1.0 xG but don't know how much xG the first goal he scored was worth when the match was being played in more normal circumstances compared to his second when it was stretched.

I'll have more of a look to see if other sites have a time chart for CL soon.

 

[Borys]

I'm trying to look for the xG timeline too. I suppose you could sort of put one together yourself based on incidents we know that happened in the match but it wouldn't be 100% accurate or detailed. Martial is 0.9 on fbref for xG and his last attempt on goal was on 57 minutes so we know that all that xG could be given to us as a team by that point in the match, before their second/the red card and that he probably should have scored 1. There will be some events where you wouldn't be able to piece together at all like that though, Neymar's goals/shot being some of them. We can see he had 1.0 xG but don't know how much xG the first goal he scored was worth when the match was being played in more normal circumstances compared to to his second when it was stretched.

I'll have more of a look to see if other sites have a time chart for CL soon.

Thanks. PM me the source of those data please, I'm trying to have a detailed look myself.

Basing on what you just said, it's very likely we were on top until their 2nd goal which is the point.

 

[Schmeichel's Cartwheel]

10 games. Between the soft red card and then the illness he's been in and out of the team this season and missed quite a few games. Obviously it's not good enough but we shouldn't talk as if this is normal for him.

10 games without a goal for a centre forward who is getting chances is shocking.

 

[MadDogg]

10 games without a goal for a centre forward who is getting chances is shocking.

He has got two goals and two assists in that time (albeit one of the goals was from a penalty that he also won). But yes, it's still poor. The important thing that I'm pointing out though is that he's been poor for this period, but this period is an outlier compared to normal where he's actually quite a good finisher. There's a lot of people in here making out that his finishing is always poor which just isn't the case.

 

[tomaldinho1]

He has got two goals and two assists in that time (albeit one of the goals was from a penalty that he also won). But yes, it's still poor. The important thing that I'm pointing out though is that he's been poor for this period, but this period is an outlier compared to normal where he's actually quite a good finisher. There's a lot of people in here making out that his finishing is always poor which just isn't the case.

Sadly the caf lives on a week to week basis.

What I find unfair is you have fans on here who will literally hear no wrong against Ole, even in his dismal runs of form, and write about how you are not a United fan unless you get behind the manager and support your team, but then have no issues with piling into players who go through poor patches. Our team has always looked disjointed and our strikers have always had issues with consistency - people rave about how good Ibra was for us but Martial matched his best goal tally last season, got more assists AND wasn't on penalty duty.

 

[MadDogg]

Sadly the caf lives on a week to week basis.

What I find unfair is you have fans on here who will literally hear no wrong against Ole, even in his dismal runs of form, and write about how you are not a United fan unless you get behind the manager and support your team, but then have no issues with piling into players who go through poor patches. Our team has always looked disjointed and our strikers have always had issues with consistency - people rave about how good Ibra was for us but Martial matched his best goal tally last season, got more assists AND wasn't on penalty duty.

Indeed.

Zlatan is actually an example of a striker who, during his time with us at least, was very wasteful with his chances. The amount of easy chances that Pogba in particular set up for him only for Zlatan to miss was incredible. People tend to forget that now.

 

[mitchmouse]

Maybe wait a little bit? Just last season everyone would rightly say that in Martial and Greenwood we’ve had two of the most clinical finishers in the league.

have to say, I never said - or thought that - of Martial. something is going on with Greenwood though, clearly

 

[harms]

have to say, I never said - or thought that - of Martial. something is going on with Greenwood though, clearly

Well, maybe not you but the numbers had certainly supported that statement.

 

[MattofManchester]

It started against Sevilla last season. So basically this season plus one game.

It started against Copenhagen actually.

 

[croadyman]

The brutal truth is that we don't create enough chances full stop and that is down to not having a proper RW and our attacking LB not being able to flourish due to Ole's insistence on 2 holding midfielders

 

[lex talionis]

Martial missed a sitter last night. There are chances were only a brilliant finisher like Ruud or Aguero can get the job done and I don't think anyone here expects Rashford or Martial to ever reach that level, but then there are chances that must be finished and our 9 just isn't getting it done.

 

[Borys]

The brutal truth is that we don't create enough chances full stop and that is down to not having a proper RW and our attacking LB not being able to flourish due to Ole's insistence on 2 holding midfielders

How do you measure "enough"? Is what City, Chelsea or Liverpool create enough? Or should we aspire to more than that because we must assume our strikers will miss those chances?

 

[croadyman]

How do you measure "enough"? Is what City, Chelsea or Liverpool create enough? Or should we aspire to more than that because we must assume our strikers will miss those chances?

My point is if we created more during the game then missing sitters wouldn't prove to be so costly, alternatively if we aren't able to do that then we simply have to be more clinical in front of goal like PSG were at the crucial times last night

 

[Borys]

Guess how many shots on target Chelsea needed to score 4 goals.

Spoiler: Chelse shots on target/shots vs ManUtd shots on target/shots

Chelsea 4 goals from 5/13 shots vs United 1 goal from 5/12 shots

 

[roseguy64]

My point is if we created more during the game then missing sitters wouldn't prove to be so costly, alternatively if we aren't able to do that then we simply have to be more clinical in front of goal like PSG were at the crucial times last night

PSG aren't a crap team. How many more good chances should we be creating against them?

 

[croadyman]

PSG aren't a crap team. How many more good chances should we be creating against them?

A couple more but surely you accept we aren't clinical enough at crucial times

 

[roseguy64]

A couple more but surely you accept we aren't clinical enough at crucial times

I'm not disputing that. I'm questioning the suggestion we don't create enough chances.

 

[Borys]

I'm not disputing that. I'm questioning the suggestion we don't create enough chances.

And you're right. We create enough, just like other teams (title-contenders lets call them). This is not our problem, or one of the smallest.

 

[croadyman]

And you're right. We create enough, just like other teams (title-contenders lets call them). This is not our problem, or one of the smallest.

I just worry if we continue to be so wasteful in the big moments it will end up costing us big time

 

[Borys]

I just worry if we continue to be so wasteful in the big moments it will end up costing us big time

For sure, it happened yesterday, it happened against Chelsea. The pattern is clear - enough for the weaker sides, not enough for the big boys.

 

[Borys]

To put this into another perspective, as many people still don't see this as a main issue because "other strikers miss chances too", below a table from Premier League current season sorted by np:G-xG (non penalty goals - goals expected, meaning if you're on the + side, you're doing better than statistically average striker; if you're on -, means your're performing worse than expected).
So far out of all top clubs strikers there are only 6 on "negative" side, including 3 ManUtd (top graph). Another interesting comparison is how good Mason and Anthony performed last season (bottom graph). This is also an explanation of our "golden period" post lockdown. Source.

 

[Leftback99]

To put this into another perspective, as many people still don't see this as a main issue because "other strikers miss chances too", below a table from Premier League current season sorted by np:G-xG (non penalty goals - goals expected, meaning if you're on the + side, you're doing better than statistically average striker; if you're on -, means your're performing worse than expected).
So far out of all top clubs strikers there are only 6 on "negative" side, including 3 ManUtd (top graph). Another interesting comparison is how good Mason and Anthony performed last season (bottom graph). This is also an explanation of our "golden period" post lockdown. Source.

It's not really an issue we can do anything about though unless you are suggesting something significant has changed from last season. 7 shots for Martial is hardly a big enough sample to make any judgements that he's no longer a good finisher.

 

[Borys]

It's not really an issue we can do anything about though unless you are suggesting something significant has changed from last season. 7 shots for Martial is hardly a big enough sample to make any judgements that he's no longer a good finisher.

No, I am suggesting what you said - there's not much we can do. We should just back up Martial and hope he'll turn this around. He has proved in previous seasons he's a good goalscorer so I have faith in him.

 

[RashyForPM]

When we have two clear cut chances at Anfield and they have zero, we have to win. I liked the performance and thought Ole got it spot on, but we deserved the win and Pogba/Bruno, especially the latter because at least the former was good in the general play, should have given it to us. It’s more than fathomable that our chance conversion rate was as low as this in November. Aside from that, no complaints. We showed guts in a big game imo.