7.7% chance conversion rate

Crashoutcassius

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way below xG yesterday but overall slightly over our xg by understat. tiny sample size. arsenal and city the only teams under their xg really by understat and only quite slightly.

by xg we are taking our chances it seems. In several matches though it does 'feel' like we are missing easy chances. Martial defo hasn't got going this year for whatever reason
 

littleman

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Yeah but who needs clinical strikers when our strikers are good at the build up play, that was the reason why fans were happy to see lukaku go in favour of martial and rashford being our strikers.
Not that Luk was a clinical striker, mind. But I think he is a type of striker.

What we have is converted inside forward, like a Henry, which worked for Thierry but isn’t working for us just as well. Titi was a different class of footballer, mind.
 

Heinzesight

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Mason is a huge miss...getting the first goal is always more difficult than adding a 3rd or 4th.

The best form United have had over the last 12 months is down to Bruno + Mason.

Everyone else in the front line blows somewhere between lukewarm and cold.
Who’s this Luke Warm lad...worth a punt?
 

UNITED ACADEMY

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Of course, that's the bottom line figure for xG when it comes down to it. I suppose you could also adjust for strength of opposition faced so far but that's a lot more more work so it's near enough.

I only brought that other stuff up because of the specific context of the thread. OP talking about chance conversion rate being low, Greck asking the question as to whether our chances were that great to begin with, presumably to try and tease out whether we were missing big chances or just shooting from bad positions. Chance quality doesn't look too high on that basis.

We could skip both chance conversion rate and xG per shot and go straight to xG per game like you say (or total xG if we're willing to ignore that some teams have played more than others). So we're on 1.37 xG per game on fbref, ranked 9th. Take penalties out of equation and they think we're worth exactly 1 goal a game in open play, ranked 11th. They have us down for 12 goals, must be because one was an OG and they've omitted that from their calculations unless they made an error.



Or if we prefer understat's slightly different xG model, they think we should have scored 10.83 so far, which is ranked 12th and have done quite well to have scored 13.


At Understat as you probably already know we can see who they reckon is doing well or not in terms of tucking away chances. With Rashford and Martial not scoring that often so far this season they don't think it's because they're missing lots of chances, more that they're not having good chances to begin with. They think Martial should be on 1 goal (to the nearest goal) and Rashford's 2 so far is about right.
I’m sure we will see different number and we will see better xG if we only include the games after the Spurs games. The Spurs, Brighton & Palace were horrified, we were different team since the Newcastle game.
 

CM10

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I think this is our biggest problem. A lot of people think we have no clear plan which may be true of some games but there has been so many times (including games we win) where we create a glut of chances but look hopeless in front of goal.

I actually think it's also why a disproportionate amount of our goals are penalties. We're often in the right areas but never seem to get the final part right.
 

bosnian_red

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This season the issue has just been we've been creating very little, and poor chances. Ok, yesterday we created some good chances (its west brom), but on the whole, we've been terrible at creation this year and its obvious when you watch us. Finishing, well that will always average itself out pretty much. Martial for 4 years was a ridiculously clinical player, and is going through a dry spell now. The important thing is creating chances and getting in those goal scoring positions, so our worry should be that we don't do that anywhere near enough.
 

berbatrick

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The games have been very dull and I can't remember too much, but no massive misses stand out really. There's not been a match where tons of real chances were created and missed, it was half-chances, blocks, or no chances at all. It's in fact very much like this part of last season.
 

The_Midfielder

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The games have been very dull and I can't remember too much, but no massive misses stand out really. There's not been a match where tons of real chances were created and missed, it was half-chances, blocks, or no chances at all. It's in fact very much like this part of last season.
The Martial goal should have been straight forward
 

Chipper

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Not sure what value this is if anything as players will have had a mixture of different types of chances.

Anyway, rough percentage chance that each player's typical shot has of scoring as per xG + their total number of shots in parenthesis. Stuck a line above/below that 7.7% mark.

van de Beek 28% (1)
Fernandes 16.6% (24) - includes penalties
Cavani 14.7% (5)
Lindelof 14.3% (1)
Martial 13.4% (7)
Rashford 12.4% (19)
= 57
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Greenwood 7.3% (8)
Wan Bissaka 6.9% (3)
Shaw 6.7% (1)
Mata 5.6% (3)
James 4.9% (6)
Maguire 4.9% (13)
Pogba 4.1% (4)
McTominay 3.3% (5)
Matic 2.9% (2)
Fred 2.1% (5)
Telles 2% (2)
Fosu-Mensah 1.9% (1)
= 53

Bruno's open play shots only have an average 4.9% chance each of going in and he's hit 20 of them. Should only have scored one but has scored three of them so he gets a pass for taking on so many long range efforts.

Martial having decent chances compared to others but not many of them, should be on around 1 goal for the season. Maguire lots of low quality chances from set pieces, Greenwood's haven't been good. CM's + Mata and James shooting when there's not much chance of scoring.
 
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Nevilles.Wear.Prada

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What?! Having a inside forward, a wide forward, 18 year old boy and 30++ yo striker who hasn't played in months in pure striker position didn't help huh? Shocker
 

Gasolin

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Lowest chance conversion rate in the league. The only player who seems capable of putting the ball in the net on a consistent basis is Bruno, who isn’t even a striker.

So what’s the answer? Wether you’re Ole in or out he can’t put the ball in the net for us, this is something the players have to take accountability for.

Maybe time to bring Cavani & Donny into the starting eleven?
It's just confidence, fitness and hard work. Keep working until the feeling comes back, those are the front 3 players who were able to score 60+ in a season. Right now, the key is to build up confidence by winning games.
 

Gasolin

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Yeah but who needs clinical strikers when our strikers are good at the build up play, that was the reason why fans were happy to see lukaku go in favour of martial and rashford being our strikers.
Lukaku is not clinical, that's why he was wasting so many chances for us. We do need a player who can help in the transition to be in position to score, that's step #1 before having a chance to be accurate. With Lukaku, we wouldn't create those chances even due to him wasting touches.
 

NewGlory

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Lowest chance conversion rate in the league. The only player who seems capable of putting the ball in the net on a consistent basis is Bruno, who isn’t even a striker.

So what’s the answer? Wether you’re Ole in or out he can’t put the ball in the net for us, this is something the players have to take accountability for.

Maybe time to bring Cavani & Donny into the starting eleven?
Rashford seems timid and maybe more injured than they admit. Martial is clearly out of form, unable to be clinical. Greenwood - something really strange going on with that kid with mysterious "ilnesses", but regardless he's a kid. Mata is a pensioner, and Dan James ... sigh.

Yes, it is absolutely time to give Cavani and DvB more time and to be starting them more.
 

devilish

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Wasn't ole supposed to coach players to become more cynical in front of goal?
 

RashyForPM

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I keep hearing Martial is one of the best finishers in the league, but does anyone have the stats to back it up? He is not a good finisher. End of. Most overrated striker in the league, albeit a good player.
 

devilish

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Mind control technology is not yet available in 2020 ......
proper coaching does exist though. Have you noticed that most players had declined under Ole? Last year's new signings are nowhere near as good as when they started and now its effecting the current side as well (Rashford, Greenwood, Martial etc). That's quite concerning.
 
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Strelok

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Imo it's rather simple.

All strikers at some point in their career would have a dry spell. Even the best. RVP once didn't score for two months in 2013, the year we won our last title if my memory serves my right.

Martial had one of the best conversion rate in the league last year.

So imo he'll be back firing soon.
 

devilish

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United have a structural problem. We need a goal poacher like Lukaku or Haaland. However that means that we'll be stressing more on other areas to perform. That means midfield need to create more which then means that defence need to be able to do its job without having McT, Fred and co protecting Maguire and co. Also, if we bring in someone like Haaland that means then we need to have great crossers of the ball. Considering that we're littered with inside forwards (Rashy, Martial, Greenwood, Mata, Diallo) then that means that crosses need to come from somewhere else. Telles is good but he need to be able to be allowed to move forward with the ball. AWB, well, less so.

I think we need a proper manager who can see the bigger picture and who has the reputation to bring in the necessary changes.


CB: We need a proper CB, someone whose tall, whose fast and whose got an idea about leadership. That would allow us to release Telles more. If that would sort the issue then fine. If we still have problems then we need to add another CB to replace Maguire/Lindelof
RB: AWB needs to either improve when going forward or else he must move out of the way. Maybe tackles can become a CB. We certainly need a quick CB
DM: Its time we decide whose going to cover that role permanently. If Matic/McT/Fred aren't good enough to consolidate their grip on that role then sell 2 of them and bring someone who can
B2B: Its about time we accept that Pogba is not suited for us. We should cut the losses and we should start playing VDB there
LW/RW: There's no Rashy, Greeny and matey in football. They either perform on a regular basis or else they lose their first team job. Greenwood should cut the crap and play as RW, Martial/Rashy should fight for the LW role.
STK: Haaland is a no brainer.
 

meamth

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Imo it's rather simple.

All strikers at some point in their career would have a dry spell. Even the best. RVP once didn't score for two months in 2013, the year we won our last title if my memory serves my right.

Martial had one of the best conversion rate in the league last year.

So imo he'll be back firing soon.
Common sense doesn't work here.

Yeah, but dry spells is too normal for any forwards. It's just that we're too bad in form right now the fans are just impatient and going for the sack and sell.
 

Strelok

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Common sense doesn't work here.

Yeah, but dry spells is too normal for any forwards. It's just that we're too bad in form right now the fans are just impatient and going for the sack and sell.
I understand most fans are like that but the level of impatience, cluelessness and out of reality here is sometime just too damn high for my liking.

We have some wanted to get rid of our POTY last season because he has a dry spell. Despite statistics say he's one of the most clinical strikers in the league.

We have some who try their best to find all the excuses in the world to defend a player, who has been an obvious liability and single handly cost us many points. Funny thing he ain't give a shite about them nor the club and been wanting out for years.

We have some who try their best to dismiss and slag our best player, who literally has been dragging us forward by himself since his signing.

We have some who think and act like we're still in our glorious days, the pinnacle of English football, or even worldwide, and think we could cherry pick whoever we'd want to. Even in our glorious days we couldn't.

We have some who had never ever play football in their life yet talk like they're some professional or tactical master. Most of those think professional footbal is simple, 'not rocket science'. Well if it's that simple why don't they apply themselve for a job at United or another PL club. Last time I heard they pay really well there.

We have some who moan regardless of we lose, draw or win. Even at 4-0 I still see some ffs.

The list goes on.

Sometime I really wonder what's wrong with some of our fans. Just like they live in another world, where everything is completely perfect and rosy.
 

Jeppers7

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We need to create better chances more consistently. Either by way of better creative players or better coaching. I’d say a mixture of having more creative players in a better structured system.
 

DRM

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We have some wanted to get rid of our POTY last season because he has a dry spell. Despite statistics say he's one of the most clinical strikers in the league.

Christ you're fecking obsessed with that line aren't you?!
And wasn't Bruno the POTY anyway??!
 

lysglimt

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When I saw the chance Martial got against Everton (just before they scored), the chance he got yesterday - and the one Rashford got - my immediate thought was - Cavani and Greenwood from last season would have scored on every single one of them.
 

TrustInJanuzaj

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If anything this statistic is a good thing as it means we are performing miles off where we know we can get to. Martial, Rashford, Greenwood all have more goals in them than they are getting currently and will only improve as the season progresses. This season has always been about grinding out the results when needed and then being able to really kick on and put in a good run at some stage. I think we are more than capable of doing that and as we showed last season, one really excellent run of form can carry you a long way.
 

AltiUn

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When I saw the chance Martial got against Everton (just before they scored), the chance he got yesterday - and the one Rashford got - my immediate thought was - Cavani and Greenwood from last season would have scored on every single one of them.
It's probably the reason Greenwood will end up undroppable by the end of the season, for a team that doesn't create that many quality chances we need to be burying the ones that we do get. Thing is, Martial in the past I would've backed to score most of his chances, since the EL finals his finishing has been pish. He's lost his nerve and with it his confidence. That sending off was idiotic from his perspective because it's not given him consistent games to find form, instead he's been playing one and sitting the next out. One positive is that it shows we should be playing much better and Rashford and Martial's slump won't last indefinitely.
 

Strelok

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Christ you're fecking obsessed with that line aren't you?!
And wasn't Bruno the POTY anyway??!
I didn't specifically mention you. If you're that bothered imo you should have thought more before making such knee jerk comments.

Martial was POTY voted by players. Bruno was POTY voted by fans.
 

Gabagoo

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Cavani and Greenwood are either sides, in terms of ages, of being world class CFs. Ighalo is a decent option too.

Our CF should always be one of Cavani or Greenwood. If Solksjaer decides to go another way and it doesn't work out then that's on him.

Rashford and Martial aren't CFs and we shouldn't be using them as such. They have their own qualities.
 

Gabagoo

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Common sense doesn't work here.

Yeah, but dry spells is too normal for any forwards. It's just that we're too bad in form right now the fans are just impatient and going for the sack and sell.
Well yeah, there are a lot of players that we could easily bin. And if we keep playing relatively poorly then Ole will get sacked.

There is a happy medium between "we lost one match, burn the club" and "back the manager, back the players and back the board even if we get relegated".
 

sullydnl

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Statistically speaking it's true that the chances we've created haven't been of particularly high quality. We're also judging them based on relatively few games (several of which Martial missed anyway). I'd be pretty sure that by the time we reach the halfway point of the season our conversion stats will look pretty reasonable.
 

DavelinaJolie

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I think someone more confident in the air, with a good supplier of crosses could help change out fortunes here. Not just because we can lump crosses in, but it'll help stretch defences wider when they are tightly packed and forcing a team that seems based around pace to shoot from outside the area. In that regard I want to see more of Telles and Cavani.
 

Lash

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I think it's a valid argument to rotate Martial with Cavani to try and see something different, but I'm more worried about Rashford's poor form than Marital dry spell. Conversion stats will bear out over the season and I think Martials will continue to go up from here.

Moves tend to break down going through Rashford atm and even lead to counter attacks - a good example was the overturned pen at the weekend. That began from him fecking up a a simple attacking phase of play and them countering us.

I think we have to be patient, I'm just glad we somehow came out with a result in spite of spurning all those chances against West Brom. If we weren't making any chances, that's when I'd be really worried.
 

Schmeichel's Cartwheel

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I think it's a valid argument to rotate Martial with Cavani to try and see something different, but I'm more worried about Rashford's poor form than Marital dry spell. Conversion stats will bear out over the season and I think Martials will continue to go up from here.

Moves tend to break down going through Rashford atm and even lead to counter attacks - a good example was the overturned pen at the weekend. That began from him fecking up a a simple attacking phase of play and them countering us.

I think we have to be patient, I'm just glad we somehow came out with a result in spite of spurning all those chances against West Brom. If we weren't making any chances, that's when I'd be really worried.
Rashford has always been hot & cold. He’ll look unstoppable for a game then do nothing for 5. I got slated for saying “prepare for the drop off” after the Leipzig game. He’ll look like Neymar for a game soon & then drop off again. It’s the way he’s always been. The only real consistent periods he’s ever had were his first season under LVG & a spell at the beginning of last season, which even then some awful performances would be masked by a pen or a tap in.