ABBA

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

129 penalty shoot-outs is a fecking tiny sample size with which to base this rule change on.

It's not a rule change, yet. It's a fecking trial you whiney brats.

 

[Rajma]

So being the one to step up first on a big European final, for the sake of argument, with the pressure that if you miss you may well put your side in a position where you're 2-0 down before you get a chance to respond, is apparently less pressure than taking a penalty 2nd whereby the worst case scenario is you're 1-0 down before you step up?

That is exactly what happens in the old format, it is on your mind that if you miss it at 1-0, opponent can make it 2-0 next before you get the chance to respond again?

 

[stepic]

for those moaning about it being 'only' 129 shoot outs, 129 constitutes every shootout between 1970 and 2003 for:

World Cup
Euros
American Cups
African Nation Cup
Gold Cup
Asian Nations Cup
Champions League
UEFA Cup
Spanish Cup
German Cup
English Cup

so... how much more extensive do you want it? for those expecting to see a sample of 1000s, what did you expect, them to use your local under 12s results too?

as for why they stopped in 2003 (the paper was published in 2010), this was because from 2003 FIFA changed the rules to allow the coin toss winner to choose whether they wanted to go first (prior to this the winner just went first - so the sample is more pure). there is no record of the decision made by captains post 2003, but they do include the results anyway (just not to form their main argument) and this adds a further 140 shoot outs.

60.5% conveys a strongly significant (1.7% level) advantage.

for the 2003 - 2008 data set, they tried to do further research, reviewing video to see if they could see decisions being made, and surveying players whether they would prefer to go first or not (96% said they would choose to go first) (but what do actual players know, right?). if you take into account the data from 1970-2008, even if it's not as perfect as to 2003, it still comes out at 59.2% (from 269 shootouts).

they also took into account a variety of other factors, such as the FIFA rankings of the two teams playing, home ground advantage, experience of previous shoot outs, and so on. the paper also breaks down the statistics into each kick, if anyone can be bothered to read. it shows a clear advantage to the first team.

they're just giving it a try. it's not going to destroy the entire sanctity of football ffs.

 

[KirkDuyt]

Apparently Gerrard has spoken out against the ABBA format. "if the first team missed and the other team scores two, they're at a huge advantage", truly one of the great thinkers of our time.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/steven-gerrard-hits-nail-head-10941857

 

[Edgar Allan Pillow]

It should be BAAB honestly.

 

[stepic]

Apparently Gerrard has spoken out against the ABBA format. "if the first team missed and the other team scores two, they're at a huge advantage", truly one of the great thinkers of our time.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/steven-gerrard-hits-nail-head-10941857

From the same article:

Former England manager Glenn Hoddle agreed with Gerrard, and pointed out that while the system solves the original problem, it creates a brand new one.

"Before you'd want to go first, but you would think twice now.

"If they miss you've got two opportunities (to score), so do you give them the opportunity to go first?"

How is that a problem? If you always wanted to go first in the old format, then that clearly shows an advantage. If the choice to go first is more difficult, that's a good thing!

 

[Red Indian Chief Torn Rubber]

It's been aped from the tennis tie-breaker, and honestly I don't have a problem with it. There's absolutely no reason why the second team in a shootout should always have the stress of chasing their opponents.

The reason is there. They lost the coin toss fair and square.

 

[Mciahel Goodman]

I don't like this format. I don't understand the need for the powers that be to constantly mess around with the rules. The game is fine, leave it as it is. The only area that could be improved upon is officiating, and use technology to do that. The game itself is perfect, leave it alone.

 

[El cangrejo]

From the same article:

Former England manager Glenn Hoddle agreed with Gerrard, and pointed out that while the system solves the original problem, it creates a brand new one.

"Before you'd want to go first, but you would think twice now.

"If they miss you've got two opportunities (to score), so do you give them the opportunity to go first?"

How is that a problem? If you always wanted to go first in the old format, then that clearly shows an advantage. If the choice to go first is more difficult, that's a good thing!

Glenn Hoddle is not a bright man.

 

[sullydnl]

I don't like this format. I don't understand the need for the powers that be to constantly mess around with the rules. The game is fine, leave it as it is. The only area that could be improved upon is officiating, and use technology to do that. The game itself is perfect, leave it alone.

If the game was perfect then there wouldn't be that 60/40 discrepancy.

 

[Mciahel Goodman]

If the game was perfect then there wouldn't be that 60/40 discrepancy.

Which isn't exactly an empirical fact. The sample size is too small, and the inclusion of games that don't count muddies it.

There's also the point that who goes first is a 50/50 chance. It's a coin toss. If you go second, unlucky, but that's how the coin landed. If you're better than the other team at taking penalties, you'll still win. This ABBA format is entirely unnecessary.

Wait a few years until we see analysis that the team who goes first in the ABBA format is at a disadvantage. It's entirely pointless.

 

[stepic]

Which isn't exactly an empirical fact. The sample size is too small, and the inclusion of games that don't count muddies it.

There's also the point that who goes first is a 50/50 chance. It's a coin toss. If you go second, unlucky, but that's how the coin landed. If you're better than the other team at taking penalties, you'll still win. This ABBA format is entirely unnecessary.

Wait a few years until we see analysis that the team who goes first in the ABBA format is at a disadvantage. It's entirely pointless.

How is the sample size too small? It covers all the major competitions over a 40 year period

A coin toss should not have any bearing on a result.

 

[Mciahel Goodman]

How is the sample size too small? It covers all the major competitions over a 40 year period

I've read that they took into account 100+ games? That seemed very small to me. Is there a link to the actual PDF of the analysis? If they've taken every shootout into account, I'd have to consider it. Although, I'd like to know if they've also taken every ABBA shootout into account before proposing the change (in football, not tennis).

A coin toss should not have any bearing on a result.

It does though. Coin tosses can determine who wins the presidency in some countries, or becomes PM in some cases. Why not for a football match? It decides who kicks off first, or should that also be changed. Maybe a debate about who's more entitled to have first kick of the ball would be more friendly.

 

[Mciahel Goodman]

Changes in football are no different to changes to a constitution. You have conservatives who want to keep it much the same, and liberals, happy to change anything which they think might make the game better. The problem being that small changes such as ABBA could quite easily lead to big changes. I remember there being discussion about scoring systems, and breaks after 15 minute periods and all other types of absolute nonsense. That's why seemingly irrelevant penalty formats matter a little bit (not hugely, but a little bit). It shows the will of the governing bodies to change the rules of the game. Given how money driven this sport is, I wouldn't rule out a host of other rules being changed if small changes are met with no resistance. Just my two cents.

60-40 is a big advantage, but I'd still like to see the actual analysis, or an article which details the analysis in-depth. As well as the statistics available for ABBA shootouts.

 

[stepic]

you can download it from here

http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/31432/

 

[Mciahel Goodman]

you can download it from here

http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/31432/

Thanks.

 

[ravelston]

Changes in football are no different to changes to a constitution. You have conservatives who want to keep it much the same, and liberals, happy to change anything which they think might make the game better. The problem being that small changes such as ABBA could quite easily lead to big changes. I remember there being discussion about scoring systems, and breaks after 15 minute periods and all other types of absolute nonsense. That's why seemingly irrelevant penalty formats matter a little bit (not hugely, but a little bit). It shows the will of the governing bodies to change the rules of the game. Given how money driven this sport is, I wouldn't rule out a host of other rules being changed if small changes are met with no resistance. Just my two cents.

60-40 is a big advantage, but I'd still like to see the actual analysis, or an article which details the analysis in-depth. As well as the statistics available for ABBA shootouts.

They changed the rules of the game when they introduced extra time, and then again when they introduced penalty shootouts. Another change - especially one this minor - would hardly lead to anarchy.

 

[adexkola]

you can download it from here

http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/31432/

Reading it now. I have concerns with using FIFA/UEFA rankings, but the paper suggests that the hypothesis is statistically viable, so there's something to this theory. Someone mentioned having simultaneous shootouts at both ends of the pitch. That IMO would eliminate any psychological barrier involved with performance with a sword of Damocles hanging over your head.

It would be interesting to see whether the chances of a player scoring a penalty decrease in a shootout when his team goes second, as opposed to in game situations. For example, how does Ronaldo fare in penalty shootouts when his team goes second, compared to his penalties during a game? Statistically speaking, we may not be able to derive much value here, but on aggregate this would be the best way of determining if there is a difference. Non-parametric method would work best, eliminates the need to assume a normal/parabolic distribution under the data.

 

[Mciahel Goodman]

They changed the rules of the game when they introduced extra time, and then again when they introduced penalty shootouts. Another change - especially one this minor - would hardly lead to anarchy.

I don't disagree, and plenty of change have been for the better (back pass rule comes straight to mind), so perhaps my "the game is perfect" was a tad hyperbolic. Still, you hear of these other potential rules floated in the press (score zones, halves into quarters, etc) and you think how absolutely crap those changes would be to anyone other than some suit sat around a desk in Zurich or wherever.

 

[adexkola]

Such papers should have a link to the data used, ffs.

129 events is enough to derive a statistical conclusion. More would be nice.

 

[JPRouve]

They changed the rules of the game when they introduced extra time, and then again when they introduced penalty shootouts. Another change - especially one this minor - would hardly lead to anarchy.

Or substitutions.

 

[Unlikely lad]

Will tonight be ABBA if we go to pens?

 

[John_Jensen]

Will tonight be ABBA if we go to pens?

Nope, ABAB

 

[adexkola]

Resurrecting this.

Whatever happened to taking penalties in the ABBA format? Has it been abandoned?

 

[Acole9]

Resurrecting this.

Whatever happened to taking penalties in the ABBA format? Has it been abandoned?

Hopefully, it was awful that year they used it in the Community Shield.

 

[adexkola]

Hopefully, it was awful that year they used it in the Community Shield.

Why was it awful?

I think the best solution would be to have penalties taken simultaneously.

 

[duffer]

Why was it awful?

I think the best solution would be to have penalties taken simultaneously.

At the same end would be fun.

 

[jymufc20]

Resurrecting this.

Whatever happened to taking penalties in the ABBA format? Has it been abandoned?

It got fecked off due to it being a stupid idea.

 

[FootballHQ]

In practice it seems very fair. However one team can quickly rack up a big score if other team misses and then they score their two in a row.

 

[Chipper]

They seemed to disappear quietly. Well I never heard announcements anyway and certainly nothing like when they were introduced.

Did wonder a few times this season where they went, mostly in the Carabao Cup (United v Derby, City v Leicester and Chelsea). Millwall v Brighton in the FA Cup and Salford v Eastleigh in the National League playoffs too so had assumed they'd been binned off.

 

[Red Indian Chief Torn Rubber]

it was an awful idea. Id have preferred penalties taken simultaneously at opposite ends. Basically you take them in front of opposing fans. now that would be fun and fairer

 

[Acole9]

Why was it awful?

I think the best solution would be to have penalties taken simultaneously.

It was confusing, pointless and spoils the penalty shootout.

 

[adexkola]

It was confusing, pointless and spoils the penalty shootout.

If you took the time to understand it, that would have helped probably.

It was designed to try and reduce the advantage of going first in a penalty shootout, which should only be dependent on the skills of the footballers and keeper

I don't think it spoiled the penalty shootout at all, but that goes back to point 1

 

[Acole9]

If you took the time to understand it, that would have helped probably.

It was designed to try and reduce the advantage of going first in a penalty shootout, which should only be dependent on the skills of the footballers and keeper

I don't think it spoiled the penalty shootout at all, but that goes back to point 1

Regardless of whether you like it or not, if ain't broke, don't try to fix it. Current format works just fine.

 

[adexkola]

@Acole9 in 1991:

Don't introduce the backpass rule. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

 

[Acole9]

@Acole9 in 1991:

Don't introduce the backpass rule. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

But that was a good rule, the abba one is pointless.

I think we're gonna have to agree to disagree on this. Seems like the footballing bodies have given up on it.

 

[bleedred]

Resurrecting again.

The current system has been shown to be statistically unfair time and again. The pressure on the team losing the toss is immense and its clearly needs a change.

EdiT : Updated data from trials between 2017-2019
https://www.si.com/soccer/2020/12/04/ifab-abba-penalty-shootout-trials-results-pk-fifa

 

[adexkola]

In before "if it ain't broke don't fix it"

It's obviously broken. But people want what is simple.

I think that penalties should be taken at both ends simultaneously.

 

[Gringo]

Agree with pens at both ends. But then the ref would have to constantly run up and down the pitch.

ABBA didn't work because if you missed the first penalty, the other team goes 2-0 up and it's pretty much done.

After the Europa League final, and when it got to 4-4 tonight and the quality of the penalties. I was thinking professionals now at the top level are so good it's a bit of a bore watching them put it into the corner kick after kick. Maybe it's time for something new.

1 Player off every 5 minutes from each side and golden goal. Open up the space on the pitch.

 

[peridigm]

Agree with pens at both ends. But then the ref would have to constantly run up and down the pitch.

ABBA didn't work because if you missed the first penalty, the other team goes 2-0 up and it's pretty much done.

After the Europa League final, and when it got to 4-4 tonight and the quality of the penalties. I was thinking professionals now at the top level are so good it's a bit of a bore watching them put it into the corner kick after kick. Maybe it's time for something new.

1 Player off every 5 minutes from each side and golden goal. Open up the space on the pitch.

First player off is the keepers.