How will this affect the IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic?
There is enough space for a few companies IMO. And while competitive (especially considering the price), it is still behind Claude/ChatGPT 6 months or so (kinda Claude 4.5 or so, maybe slightly worse).
I think we will have the Western frontier: Anthropic, OpenAI, Deepmind, X.AI and potentially Meta and Microsoft.
China: DeepSeek, Alibaba, Tencent, Bytedance, Sensetime, Minimax and a couple of others.
And then a few other Western companies which have more niche cases and lag slightly behind: Reflection (US/UK), Mistral (France), Cohere (Canada).
And finally, I think that lots of LLM companies will start exploring the world models which is gonna have massive impact too, probably in the same range as LLMs (right now you have only Deepmind and a few startups in that space).
With Nvidia, Google, Amazon providing the compute in the West, and Huawei in China.
There is no reason why there won't be dozens of these massive companies, there is a giant market there.