10th is too low imo, we’ve never finished close to that low in the PL, with way worse squads (and managers) than we currently have.
6th is a kinda realistic scenario but it would need to have us performing at the bottom of our ability imo and/or quite a few injuries.
I’d say 2-6 is the most realistic window with 3-6 being the most likely outcome. I’m including 2 because City lost Pep, Arsenal have a better and more experienced team than us. A lot will depend on injuries, how (if) Isak/Wirtz bounce back after disappointing first seasons, and whether we find a reliable defender to partner Van Dijk with.
I'd agree that 10th is unlikely. 6th-8th is where you would realistically finish without some great signings imo. I think the standard of midtable PL teams is way higher than those at the time of your weaker teams of the 2000s. I wouldn't be surprised if Bournemouth end up finishing ahead of you (and some other big teams) this season tbh. I think you have a lot of major weaknesses across so many positions honestly.
I'm assuming Jacquet will be a success even though I haven't seen him much, based mainly on how much you paid for him, but even assuming he is a success, I don't think injury prone Joe Gomez and Ronald Araujo are enough cover for there. I understand you guys like Leoni, and he seems pretty talented, but he also has a bad injury and I'm sceptical about how reliable he will be really for this season at least.
Your full back positions are the biggest issue. They're an absolute mess. I don't think you have a single player that's good enough to be playing there regularly. Maybe you could make Kerkez work if you brought in a defensive cb-style rb to sit deeper, but his positioning is horrendous. Frimpong's even worse to the point I don't think you can even consider him a rb. Maybe he won't be so much of a disaster if you push him to the rw, especially since that's another position where you're extremely weak and lacking any proven quality.
Gravenberch has only had 1 truly good season in his career imo, and he was awful last season. Early signs from what I've seen of him in pre-season don't look like he's suddenly going to regain the form of 2 seasons ago. MacAllister might improve on a really poor season last year and he isn't one of your biggest weaknesses, but probably still a big downgrade on the level he was performing at 2 years ago.
You seem to be selling Gakpo who didn't perform very well last season but was also one of your only sources of goals still in the squad. Wouldn't expect too much from Ngumoha at his age. He's talented but unlikely to be contributing too much this season. Chiesa seems close to useless at this stage in his career. There seems to be some love for Victor Munoz. I've no idea what his level is but 6 goals and 2 assists in La Liga last season sound pretty average to me.
I don't like Wirtz at all. I think he actively makes your team structure worse. He has talent but that doesn't mean he's a net positive for you. I assume he'll be playing more central than on the wing under Iraola. Let's see how he does, but I had my doubts over him before he joined from the Bundesliga and pretty much everything I was sceptical about he struggled with in his 1st season. The amount of space you get in the Bundesliga is simply completely different to the PL and the quality of defending in general in that league is really terrible. Can be fun to watch but makes it a risky league for attaking transfers imo (and we have experienced that ourselves with Sancho who was just as highly rated there as Wirtz).
In terms of positives for you, I'll say Szoboszlai is an excellent player and pretty much as well-rounded a midfielder as you could ask for. I'd hope to see him being used exclusively as a midfielder this season instead of needing to be an emergency rb like at times last season. If he was to get an extended injury 8th-10th might not seem as extreme frankly.
I do think Isak will have a much better season also (and you really need him to in Ekitike's absence). He was world class at Newcastle and I think it's more likely than not that he'll at least get back to double figures in the Prem this season. Ekitike will give you a boost when he returns also, but missing him for the entire first half of the season will be tough to deal with, especially as Isak can be quite injury prone himself. I assume you'll bring in someone to help with that (rumours of Endrick on loan).
I like Barcola so he probably will improve you, but worth noting his end product right now is pretty inconsistent. I'd back him to improve that, but it is possible he won't and there will also be big pressure on him due to the likely massive fee involved.
I think you have more work to do than is realistically possible in the remainder of the window basically, which is why I think you're going to struggle more than most think. If that happens some might blame Iraola, especially given Slot had won the league in his 1st season, so finishing lower than him the following season on paper looks really bad. However, in reality I just think your recruitment/planning team have just done a horrendous job preparing for this season. It's actually very strange to see given you have done so well on that side for the last decade prior.