Arab protests of 2019 (and beyond)

[2cents]

Think this deserves a thread, since both countries lie on the fringes of what we typically think of as the Middle East. Earlier this week Algerian protestors forced the army to resign President Bouteflika after twenty years in charge, and they’re continuing to protest:

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And now it seems the protests in Sudan which have been ongoing and expanding for months now may be culminating in something massive:

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Worth keeping an eye on in the coming months. Obviously there’s loads of factors unique to these two countries driving events, but the pan-Arab appeal is not to be underestimated.

 

[Adisa]

Ask Egyptians how they feel about the army intervening in their popular revolt. Ultimately end up from one dictator to another.

 

[2cents]

As Egyptians how they feel about the army intervening in their popular revolt. Ultimately end up from one dictator to another.

Seems the Algerians are fully conscious of that:

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[2cents]

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[2cents]

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[2cents]

 

[2cents]

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[Kasper]

Very interesting developments, must say that I'm quite worried that it could get very messy as al-Bashir will definitely cling to power deperately. With his ICC warrant looming, he doesn't have the option of retreating into exil.

 

[2cents]

With his ICC warrant looming, he doesn't have the option of retreating into exil.

That's a good point actually. I'd imagine the Saudis will still take him.

 

[RedTiger]

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The last one is a template reply he pulled off the internet.

 

[RedTiger]

Very interesting developments, must say that I'm quite worried that it could get very messy as al-Bashir will definitely cling to power deperately. With his ICC warrant looming, he doesn't have the option of retreating into exil.

I'm sure the Saudis will keep him nice and safe in a house in Riyadh.

 

[Kasper]

That's a good point actually. I'd imagine the Saudis will still take him.

I'm sure the Saudis will keep him nice and safe in a house in Riyadh.

Are you guys sure? I know that various countries have refused to arrest him up to this date but that was to show unity and oppose inference into sovereign business by a supranational entity. I thought that the African Union and the Arab League will drop him like a hot potato if his own country turns against him and he gets delegitimized.
What would the Saudis gain by this?

 

[2cents]

Are you guys sure? I know that various countries have refused to arrest him up to this date but that was to show unity and oppose inference into sovereign business by a supranational entity. I thought that the African Union and the Arab League will drop him like a hot potato if his own country turns against him and he gets delegitimized.
What would the Saudis gain by this?

Not sure at all, just guessing off the fact they gave refuge to Idi Amin and Ben Ali, and they'll want to assure as smooth a transition as possible (if indeed there's no going back) while maintaining as much control as they can over proceedings. I've no idea how the ICC might factor into it though.

 

[2cents]

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[2cents]

He’s gone:

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[Jaqen H'ghar]

He’s gone:

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I'm in khartoum, and the streets have erupted with joy.

Still not known who has taken over, and the Sudanese Proffesional Assosiattion calling for the sit-in at the Army Headquarters Complex to continue until further notice.

 

[2cents]

I'm in khartoum, and the streets have erupted with joy.

Still not known who has taken over, and the Sudanese Proffesional Assosiattion calling for the sit-in at the Army Headquarters Complex to continue until further notice.

Good to hear, stay safe there.

Hard to think of a worse Arab and African leader of the last few decades than al-Bashir.

 

[Jaqen H'ghar]

Good to hear, stay safe there.

Hard to think of a worse Arab and African leader of the last few decades than al-Bashir.

Thanks mate. Things appear to be going well so far, and the whoever is in control seem to have things under control. Hope it's a group with the country's interest at heart and we can transit to a functioning democracy.

The bolded is true. The whole National Congress Party, Sudan's ruling party is a case study in incompetence and corruption. A genocidal theocratic kleptocracy in power for 3 decades have left the country exactly as you would imagine. The Christian majority south has seceded, hundreds of thousands killed in Darfur and millions displaced, Banks with no cash, and the only service they provide is internal transfers in local currency from one account to the other.

Sudan is an amazing place with lots of potential, the people are wonderful and deserve better.

 

[Avatar]

Seems the Algerians are fully conscious of that:

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Words are easy. The only alternative to the armies are Islamists. Unless seculars can build a formidable political force, arab countries will oscillate between those two. If there is one thing they should learn from our ongoing nightmare in Egypt , it is that the seculars whether liberals or leftists should all unite in one coalition for 10 years or more!!

 

[2cents]

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Words are easy. The only alternative to the armies are Islamists. Unless seculars can build a formidable political force, arab countries will oscillate between those two. If there is one thing they should learn from our ongoing nightmare in Egypt , it is that the seculars whether liberals or leftists should all unite in one coalition for 10 years or more!!

I don’t know enough about the current politics of either place, but I’d imagine the Islamists will be major players in both Algeria and Sudan in the coming months. They were denied power in Algeria in the early 90s by the regime, and while they comprised one half of the original alliance which made up the current Sudanese regime, they’ve been pretty much sidelined by the military there since the late 90s. So there’s a ready-made narrative of disenfranchisement for them to exploit in both cases. You’d have to assess that in terms of organization and motivation they’ll be in a prime position to take advantage of any significant openings in the political systems.

On the other hand the experience of the Algerian and Sudanese people with the Islamists over the last few decades has been pretty negative all round, to a greater degree than in most other Arab countries. So the mystification with Islamism might not exist so much.

 

[Zlatattack]

Words are easy. The only alternative to the armies are Islamists. Unless seculars can build a formidable political force, arab countries will oscillate between those two. If there is one thing they should learn from our ongoing nightmare in Egypt , it is that the seculars whether liberals or leftists should all unite in one coalition for 10 years or more!!

People should just give Islamists a chance. If they do well they'll win elections - win win.

If they don't do well - they'll get kicked out; again win win.

In Pakistan people regularly vote in and kick out islamist parties - although they've never had enough votes to form anything more than a provincial government in KPK province. This was post 9-11 so it could have been considered a protest vote too.

 

[RedTiger]

People should just give Islamists a chance. If they do well they'll win elections - win win.

It's that part that seems to be the problem for most though.

 

[2cents]

If they don't do well - they'll get kicked out; again win win.

Only place I know of where they’ve willingly conceded power in this way is Tunisia.

 

[Zlatattack]

Only place I know of where they’ve willingly conceded power in this way is Tunisia.

So what? In the grand scheme of things, what does it matter, which political face a dictator takes? Look at Eygpt for example. They got rid of Mubarak, got Morsi, but ended up with Sisi instead. If Morsi was shit he should have been left to be dealt with at the ballot. If that didn't work then he could have had the Mubarak treatment. Instead they now have another Mubarak. Does it help Eygpt politically that the dictator brands himself differently?

You just have to let shit play out. Isn't that what democracy is supposed to be?

 

[2cents]

So what? In the grand scheme of things, what does it matter, which political face a dictator takes? Look at Eygpt for example. They got rid of Mubarak, got Morsi, but ended up with Sisi instead. If Morsi was shit he should have been left to be dealt with at the ballot. If that didn't work then he could have had the Mubarak treatment. Instead they now have another Mubarak. Does it help Eygpt politically that the dictator brands himself differently?

You just have to let shit play out. Isn't that what democracy is supposed to be?

Well I actually agree that in the event they win an election Islamists should be allowed to rule, but only when there are well established and respected public safeguards to check their power - in other words an independent, broadly representative civil society which exists and operates beyond the immediate reach of the state apparatus which the Islamists aim to control. In fact I highly doubt the value of elections at all until such a thing is achieved. Because Islamists have an extremely well-deserved reputation for only valuing democracy as a potential means of capturing power and nothing more, and in the Arab world most of the significant power is concentrated in the state.

How to actually build that civil society is a question I have no answer to - it’s not just the dictators preventing its emergence (although they’ve done everything possible to foil it), but also the ethnic, sectarian and tribal cleavages which we’re all familiar with and which the dictators exploit. I think answering this question is the key to making these post-dictatorship transitions work in the Arab world and curbing the authoritarian impulses of the Islamists.

 

[Zlatattack]

Well I actually agree that in the event they win an election Islamists should be allowed to rule, but only when there are well established and respected public safeguards to check their power - in other words an independent, broadly representative civil society which exists and operates beyond the immediate reach of the state apparatus which the Islamists aim to control. In fact I highly doubt the value of elections at all until such a thing is achieved. Because Islamists have an extremely well-deserved reputation for only valuing democracy as a potential means of capturing power and nothing more, and in the Arab world most of the significant power is concentrated in the state.

How to actually build that civil society is a question I have no answer to - it’s not just the dictators preventing its emergence (although they’ve done everything possible to foil it), but also the ethnic, sectarian and tribal cleavages which we’re all familiar with and which the dictators exploit. I think answering this question is the key to making these post-dictatorship transitions work in the Arab world and curbing the authoritarian impulses of the Islamists.

Do you hold those same pre-requisites for political parties to hold the same ideals as you?

If you do - then it would suggest that some countries can't have democracy until certain state institutions are in place.

If you don't - then it's blatent anti islamist hypocrisy.

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Personally I've come to the conclusion that democracy in it's current form is BS, especially in countries that don't share the same social structures as Anglo-saxon and western European societies.

The whole idea of 1 man 1 vote is rubbish. Why should I have the same say as someone who is infinitely more qualified than me to speak on a subject? This is how we got Brexit, how the yanks got Trump and how the Germans got Hitler.

 

[2cents]

Do you hold those same pre-requisites for political parties to hold the same ideals as you?

Since my ideals prize the existence of large realms of society over which the state exercises little or no control, and I believe the Islamists aim to wield the total power of the state to impose their agenda on everybody within it, obviously I believe different standards should apply to them and to any other ideological parties with a similar aim. If that makes me an “anti-Islamist hypocrite” then so-be-it. While I don’t rule out the possibility of an evolution in the Islamist approach to politics in the future, we can only deal with what we’ve known up to this point.

it would suggest that some countries can't have democracy until certain state institutions are in place.

I’m talking about non-state institutions, i.e. civil society - labour unions, book clubs, sports associations, free press, historical societies, academia, etc. A major problem in the Arab world has been the extension of state power into all these realms of society, where it is wielded on behalf of whatever ruling clique or faction and/or ethnic or sectarian interest happens to be in charge, in doing so alienating everyone whose interests do not benefit or are threatened in the process. What is needed is broad sections of society which develop common interests which transcend sectarianism, tribalism, and narrow state interests. They needn’t relegate traditional interests to oblivion, they just need to be strong enough to keep a check on the impulses of those actors determined to use the state to advance an exclusivist agenda.

Personally I've come to the conclusion that democracy in it's current form is BS, especially in countries that don't share the same social structures as Anglo-saxon and western European societies.

The whole idea of 1 man 1 vote is rubbish.

I’m not a “one size fits all” kind of guy when it comes to political systems. I believe different peoples and different parts of the world carry certain historical and cultural baggage which makes some systems work and other fail. However I do think at a minimum or lowest common denominator all people chafe under the weight of an overbearing state which intrudes in their linguistic, religious and cultural lives, and I think in modern times a certain degree or form of political participation is valued by most. Whether it takes the form of elections or otherwise I don’t know, but we wouldn’t be having this conversation if a broad section of Arab society from Morocco to Bahrain hadn’t been demanding it for the last eight years.

 

[Sweet Square]

Personally I've come to the conclusion that democracy in it's current form is BS, especially in countries that don't share the same social structures as Anglo-saxon and western European societies.

The whole idea of 1 man 1 vote is rubbish. Why should I have the same say as someone who is infinitely more qualified than me to speak on a subject? This is how we got Brexit, how the yanks got Trump and how the Germans got Hitler.

I suggest you do some more thinking on the subject.

 

[2cents]

Just to add, the one major exception to what I said above about the Arab state reaching into all realms of society is the mosque - while the regimes have all attempted to co-opt the ulama (most famously with al-Azhar in Cairo), the nature of the hierarchies of authority in Islam means there will always be room for the emergence of an independent religious opposition. Which in part explains the dominant position of the Islamists in the opposition.

 

[Jaqen H'ghar]

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I don’t know enough about the current politics of either place, but I’d imagine the Islamists will be major players in both Algeria and Sudan in the coming months. They were denied power in Algeria in the early 90s by the regime, and while they comprised one half of the original alliance which made up the current Sudanese regime, they’ve been pretty much sidelined by the military there since the late 90s. So there’s a ready-made narrative of disenfranchisement for them to exploit in both cases. You’d have to assess that in terms of organization and motivation they’ll be in a prime position to take advantage of any significant openings in the political systems.

On the other hand the experience of the Algerian and Sudanese people with the Islamists over the last few decades has been pretty negative all round, to a greater degree than in most other Arab countries. So the mystification with Islamism might not exist so much.

I disagree with you for once, in Sudan the Islamists have taken over the army and weakened it by creating parallel forces and militias, such as the Popular Defense Forces, Rapid Response Forces and the militarized intelligence Security Forces.

The coup is an attempt by the ruling party to buy time and re-brand. Awad Ibnouf is close to the regime, and all this seems like an elaborate plot to keep things the same and protect regional interests.

Protests have already begun and resistance to continue.

 

[Avatar]

People should just give Islamists a chance. If they do well they'll win elections - win win.

If they don't do well - they'll get kicked out; again win win.

In Pakistan people regularly vote in and kick out islamist parties - although they've never had enough votes to form anything more than a provincial government in KPK province. This was post 9-11 so it could have been considered a protest vote too.

How is that? (bold part) . You think islamists are democratic? You think they will step down if they lose the next election. They won't. They will take any arab country backwards more than it is. And the people will have only the army to call for help, if it hasn't been "islamized" yet. If they have weoapons, they would prefer to launch a civil war than to lose power whether democratically or else. Something that happened in Algeria. thankfully they weren't armed "yet" in Egypt.

The problem is the mentality my friend. No one of those believe in democracy.Democracy is a culture first and foremost. Democracy is secular, they are not. Democracy is not merely voting and elections. Islamists believe in the "Saved sect" which is basically the school they follow, and in the caliphate which is an authoritarian and a totalitarian system. They don't tolerate minorities, they hate them. They don't have the concept of nationhood.They'd leak any state secrets to their brothers in Islam in other countries if they need to. They are muslims not Egyptians. That's their own words not mine. The brotherhood supreme guide once stated it clearly in 2006 or around that date: " feck Egypt, We are Muslims".
Democracy? It's just a tool to reach power. They are not cultured nor tolerant. Their minds still live in the middle ages .

 

[Zlatattack]

I suggest you do some more thinking on the subject.

Maybe it's just frustration, but right now I'm not the only person in the world who thinks this way. Plenty of people I know don't bother voting anymore - it doesn't change anything. I follow politics in two countries, the UK and Pakistan (both countries I consider home).

In the UK we had Tories in red ties and Tories in blue ties. Then came in JC and we have an opposition that is very different - but it seems only on twitter and facebook. He talks the talk, but his party undermine him and he's hardly pulling up any trees as leader of the opposition. It's almost like he expects to win an election by default, because at some point all the other options will just be too shit.

Then we have this whole Brexit BS going on, which in the grand scheme of things is insignificant. What we should be worried about is the filthy state of the environment, the over stretched, police, NHS, schools, the lack of funding for any real infrastructure development, and the backdoor privatisation of the NHS. But it's all ignored because of Brexshit. Some parts of society have gone to hell in a handbasket and no politicians want to have a real conversation about it. The cost of living in this country for the average person is very high, kids are growing up spending more time with teachers and child minders than their own parents!

Nobody cares about these issues, so what does it matter if i vote or not? Who cares if we have democracy or not? We'll still have the same old BS continuing. The only difference elections seem to make is the faces making the same old noise.

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I had high hopes for politics in Pakistan, it was a breath of fresh air, a third party won the election - and there are bits of great news every single day. But actually - the big issues, are just delayed. The courts are inept, the state does backdoor deals with the corrupt, the economy is not great (it's only been 8 months), the same old stories of political ineptness and beauracratic quagmires are emerging. It makes you think - what can really change?

 

[Zlatattack]

How is that? (bold part) . You think islamists are democratic? You think they will step down if they lose the next election. They won't. They will take any arab country backwards more than it is. And the people will have only the army to call for help, if it hasn't been "islamized" yet. If they have weoapons, they would prefer to launch a civil war than to lose power whether democratically or else. Something that happened in Algeria. thankfully they weren't armed "yet" in Egypt.

The problem is the mentality my friend. No one of those believe in democracy.Democracy is a culture first and foremost. Democracy is secular, they are not. Democracy is not merely voting and elections. Islamists believe in the "Saved sect" which is basically the school they follow, and in the caliphate which is an authoritarian and a totalitarian system. They don't tolerate minorities, they hate them. They don't have the concept of nationhood.They'd leak any state secrets to their brothers in Islam in other countries if they need to. They are muslims not Egyptians. That's their own words not mine. The brotherhood supreme guide once stated it clearly in 2006 or around that date: " feck Egypt, We are Muslims".
Democracy? It's just a tool to reach power. They are not cultured nor tolerant. Their minds still live in the middle ages .

so much cliche.

 

[2cents]

I disagree with you for once, in Sudan the Islamists have taken over the army and weakened it by creating parallel forces and militias, such as the Popular Defense Forces, Rapid Response Forces and the militarized intelligence Security Forces.

The coup is an attempt by the ruling party to buy time and re-brand. Awad Ibnouf is close to the regime, and all this seems like an elaborate plot to keep things the same and protect regional interests.

Protests have already begun and resistance to continue.

Ah, I was under the impression the military had basically pushed al-Turabi and the Islamic Front out of the picture since the 90s, while retaining their basic agenda.

 

[Adisa]

I suggest you do some more thinking on the subject.

Although I'm not sure I agree, I wouldn't dismiss what that poster says out of hand. A lot of African countries have this system where democracy is merely a tool to embed corruption.
I was reading a guardian interview with Salif Keita(probably the greatest African musician alive) and I couldn't disagree. Democracy in a country with only a 30-50% literacy rate is fecking bullshit.

 

[Jaqen H'ghar]

Ah, I was under the impression the military had basically pushed al-Turabi and the Islamic Front out of the picture since the 90s, while retaining their basic agenda.

True, they pushed Alturabi, and the party broke up in two, the majority remaining with the government.

Along the way the ruling party have become more pragmatic kleptocrats than theocrats, but it's the same Islamist faces, with Alturabi's faction in bed with the government until two weeks ago, holding key positions.

When this is over there is no way Islamists can peddle their ware here for a long time. After the last 3 decades we've been there, done that and it will be a long time before people forget.

 

[2cents]

True, they pushed Alturabi, and the party broke up in two, the majority remaining with the government.

Along the way the ruling party have become more pragmatic kleptocrats than theocrats, but it's the same Islamist faces, with Alturabi's faction in bed with the government until two weeks ago, holding key positions.

When this is over there is no way Islamists can peddle their ware here for a long time. After the last 3 decades we've been there, done that and it will be a long time before people forget.

Very interesting. Makes the case of Sudan pretty much completely unique among the Arab states.

 

[Member 90887]

Think this deserves a thread, since both countries lie on the fringes of what we typically think of as the Middle East. Earlier this week Algerian protestors forced the army to resign President Bouteflika after twenty years in charge, and they’re continuing to protest....

Just a small correction there, Algeria has nothing to do with the middle east, not even close, whether it is geographically or in terms of culture.

Regarding what's happening there, the government is listening to the people. a transition government has been put in place and elections are gonna take place the 4th of july.

The people still plan to protest. they want the main people in the army to resign as well.

They (people) are making it a point to make the protest as peacefull as possible. saw videos of people cleaning after themselves at the end of the protests. pretty impressive when you factor in the fact that a few millions get to the streets each friday.

 

[2cents]

Just a small correction there, Algeria has nothing to do with the middle east, not even close, whether it is geographically or in terms of culture.

Geographically it is on the fringe of what most people consider the Middle East. Culturally there are obvious major links with the central lands of the Middle East.

 

[Member 90887]

Geographically it is on the fringe of what most people consider the Middle East. Culturally there are obvious major links with the central lands of the Middle East.

What 'most people consider to be the middle east' is not the defintion of the middle east, nor is it how people from Morroco/Algeria/Tunisia see it. And if it's not the official definition of it, and is not how people from those regions sees it...

The middle east begins at Egypt. It's lazy (no offense) to put all the countries from North Africa in the 'middle east' just because they share a religion and talk 'the same langage'. And I'm putting same langage between quotes because other than the official Arabic, used in official documents,the kind of Arabic used in those countries is different. The further you go from Algeria/Morroco, the more different it is.