Are we starting to see the end of City and Liverpool as the 2 best clubs in England ?

lysglimt

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When I look at City and Liverpool, they both have squads where many of the key-players are near 30 years old and realistically only have a few seasons left before Klopp/Guardiola need to think about replacing them. Behind them, Chelsea and United are building teams where all the key-players are significantly younger and still improving.

First some numbers - looking at the players regularly used (age is rounded up if a player has his birthday before the likely starting date of next season)
I only look at Liverpool, City, United or Chelsea as they at the moment look the most likely to fight at the top in the years to come

Liverpool:
Allison 27 - van Dijk 29, Lovren 31, Matip 29, Gomez 23, Robertson 26, TAA 21, Fabinho 26, Wijnaldum 29, Henderson 30, Keita 25, Lallana 32, Shaqiri 28, Oxlade-Chamberlain 27, Firmino 28, Mane 28, Salah 28, Minamino 25, Origi 25

Of all the players used regularly only TAA and Gomez is below 25 and can be expected to improve. A lot of players are in the age-group 28-30 where they are more likely to deteriorate than to improve in the next 2-3 seasons. In addition, only Fabinho and Robertson of the players who 23-27 have shown the same consistency and quality as TAA and the slightly older players - Origi, Minamino, Oxlade Chamberlain and Keita have not yet shown that regularly.

Manchester City:
Ederson 27, Walker 30, Stones 26, Mendy 26, Otamendi 32, Cancelo 26, Laporte 26, Garcia 19, Gundogan 29, DeBruyne 29, Zinchenko 23, B.Silva 26, D.Silva 34, Fernandinho 35, Rodri 24, Mahrez 29, Foden 20, Sterling 25, Sane 24, Jesus 23, Aguero 32

Almost identical to Liverpool where the majority of the key-players all should have peaked. Aguero, D.Silva, Fernandinho and Sane are all likely to leave. De Bruyne, Otamendi Gundogan, Walker and Mahrez are 29-32. Of the younger players, only Sterling and Laporte have shown the same consistency and quality as the older key-players have. Rodri, Foden, Mendy, Cancelo, Zinchenko, Jesus, Stones and B.Silva have all done well, but not at the same level. Several of these can still improve a lot of course - especially Jesus and Foden

Manchester United:
De Gea 29, VNL 26, Maguire 27, Bailly 26, Shaw 25, AWB 23, Dalot 21, Williams 19, Tuanzebe 22, Pogba 27, Lingard 27, Pereira 24, Fred 27, Bruno 25, James 22, Matic 32, McTominay 23, Martial 24, Rashford 22, Greenwood 18

A completely different age-structure compared to City and Liverpool. Looking at the key-players only DDG of the key-players is around 30 - Pogba, Fred, Maguire and Bruno are 25-28 and Rashford, Martial, AWB and McTominay are 21-24 - in addition whereas City and Liverpool have a couple of players each in the age-group 18-22 used regularly, Man United have 6-7 (depends if you count Chong and Gomes). Only 2 players have turned 30, Mata and Matic.

Chelsea:
Kepa 25, Rudiger 27, Alonso 29, Christensen 24, Zouma 25, James 20, Azpiliecueta 31, Tomori 22, Emerson 26, Jorginho 28, Kante 29, Barkley 26, Loftus Cheek 24, Mount 21, Kovacic 26, Gilmour 19, Abraham 22, Giroud 33, Hudson Odoy 19, Pulisic 21, Werner 24, Ziyech 26

Quite similar to United, with a few players turning 30 in Giroud and Azpilicueta. A lot of the key-players are in in their mid-to late 20s - Kovacic, Werner, Ziyech, Rudiger and Kante. In addition a lot of emerging players 19-23 who are all likely to improve - Mount, Gilmour, James, Abraham, Hudson Odoy and Pulisic.

City and Liverpool have fully developed players where the key-players are at the peak of their career - but the majority of these players will need to be replaced over the next 2-3 seasons, but the Corona-virus could make that difficult. It is doubtful that Barcelona or Real can afford to spend £100 million on a 28-29 year old player, so for Liverpool selling Mane, Salah, Firmino to sign new players could be difficult. Citys problem is that the majority of all the signings they have made over the last couple of seasons have failed to establish themselves. City still haven't able to replace Kompany and they have no players close to the level of a peak David Silva, Fernandinho or Aguero

Chelsea and United still look a bit behind City and Liverpool, but Klopp and Guardiola need to get a few signings right in the next 12-18 months to keep it that way, because in my opinion the gap to Chelsea and United will be smaller as the latter have a lot of really talented players developing rapidly.
 

TheLord

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Gosh. You write as if Liverpool have been in the top-two of the Premier League for a long, long time - like four, five years!

Liverpool finished 8th in 2015-16 when Leicester won the title.
They barely scraped past fifth-placed Arsenal in 2016-17 when Chelsea won the title.
They again finished fourth in 2017-18 when City won the title.

They have been good for one full season (2018/19) and in another asterisked season (2019/20). That's it.
People should stop talking them up as a team that has been in the top-two of the Premier League for ages.
 
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charlenefan

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I didn't realise some of those ages, Aguero for example 32? What it does highlight though is Liverpool's front 3 could all easily have another 4 years at least in them so bit early to be writing them off

I hope we can challenge soon but I expect it'll be City or Liverpool for at least another season
 

mariachi-19

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I didn't realise some of those ages, Aguero for example 32? What it does highlight though is Liverpool's front 3 could all easily have another 4 years at least in them so bit early to be writing them off

I hope we can challenge soon but I expect it'll be City or Liverpool for at least another season
However, those Liverpool players are all explosive high energy attackers. If history shows us anyhing, those types of players tend to have a rapid decline unless they're able to mould their game around certain assetts.

The issue for Liverpool is that Firmino's game revolves around explosivness and he is a key cog in their front line attack. He doesn't have the genuine technical ability to evolve his game beyond what he currently is. Replacing him is not going to be easy and it may involve bringing in a player that doesn't necessarily work with their overrall balance.

Further, I forsee other teams coming in for Mane or Salah in the next year or so as Liverpool will try to cash in before they hit their decline.

Really, this season falls in line with Klopps two or three oustanding seasons at Dortmund before it turned to shit.
 

Pep's Suit

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A player is 29 and some people act like he's months from retirement. More than anything City / Pool's future wins depend on how long their current managers stay there (plus money, of course). Klopp has contract until '24, Pep until '21 but doesn't sound like he's against extending so I'd think he'll agree to stay until '22 or '23.
 

Fluctuation0161

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Looking at the mix of ages in their squads, it is a good mix and they have plenty of time to develop youth while playing their older player at 29/30 in the peak of their years.

So to answer the op. No.
 

meamth

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I didn't realise some of those ages, Aguero for example 32? What it does highlight though is Liverpool's front 3 could all easily have another 4 years at least in them so bit early to be writing them off

I hope we can challenge soon but I expect it'll be City or Liverpool for at least another season
I can see Liverpool to have 2 more years of greatness and another 2 years of injuries and deterioration, somehow they need to cash in on their forwards.
 

Ish

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However, those Liverpool players are all explosive high energy attackers. If history shows us anyhing, those types of players tend to have a rapid decline unless they're able to mould their game around certain assetts.

The issue for Liverpool is that Firmino's game revolves around explosivness and he is a key cog in their front line attack. He doesn't have the genuine technical ability to evolve his game beyond what he currently is. Replacing him is not going to be easy and it may involve bringing in a player that doesn't necessarily work with their overrall balance.

Further, I forsee other teams coming in for Mane or Salah in the next year or so as Liverpool will try to cash in before they hit their decline.

Really, this season falls in line with Klopps two or three oustanding seasons at Dortmund before it turned to shit.
The Firmino bit is interesting. I'd probably have said Mane and Salah's games revolve around explosiveness and Firmino is the technical cog in that front 3, with his reading of the game, touches, and bringing them into play. Explosive wouldn't be the first word that would have come to mind for me describing Firmino. He is strong on the ball and a real grafter/fighter.

On the bolded bit - I hope not -at least not for big money. The toughest task is moving on your superstars, who would want 1 last big contract, before they decline. Anyone willing to pay big bucks for Mane/Salah, might just be taking that headache away from Liverpool and give them enough cash to go into the market and get someone (like a Sancho, as an example). I say this like they've already declined, mind you - which they haven't :lol:

But I do think they've hit their best and their front line might need a refresh in a year or 2.
 

meamth

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However, those Liverpool players are all explosive high energy attackers. If history shows us anyhing, those types of players tend to have a rapid decline unless they're able to mould their game around certain assetts.

The issue for Liverpool is that Firmino's game revolves around explosivness and he is a key cog in their front line attack. He doesn't have the genuine technical ability to evolve his game beyond what he currently is. Replacing him is not going to be easy and it may involve bringing in a player that doesn't necessarily work with their overrall balance.

Further, I forsee other teams coming in for Mane or Salah in the next year or so as Liverpool will try to cash in before they hit their decline.

Really, this season falls in line with Klopps two or three oustanding seasons at Dortmund before it turned to shit.
Salah already recorded less distance covered and successful dribbling by 2 fold.

He is still potent though.
 

Chairman Steve

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Who knows?

Maybe the OPs fairly plausible reasoning is correct in that their squads get older, the heights they achieve become more difficult to emulate, the players may want to move onto better challenges, the personnel aren’t as hungry as they were and then they begin falter.

Maybe it coincides with the rise of a new team who can hang in there with them in the league table. It could be Chelsea, Spurs or Man Utd... maybe it’s more than one team.

Maybe Liverpool and City don’t really falter... and they get overtaken by a team or even teams who are just better.
 

norm87cro

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City is at the verge of a big reshuffle in the dressing room giving their weak defence. It will be interesting to see if Pep and the players are willing to weather the storm if they should get kicked out of Europe for two seasons ( something I'm very sceptical about). The likes of Chelsea are still around and if Newcastle should get bought all off a sudden City don't look like a prime destination (no Europe, prehaps Pep leaves etc). Liverpool, on the other hand, look like dominating if they sign a proper midfielder or two for at least another two seasons which pains me to say but is the truth.
 

Ish

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On a different note, I saw City's subs the other night and it reminded me of their strength in depth. They were able to bring on Aguero, Rodrigo, Fernandinho, Bernardo and Foden, to name a few. They still have Stones, Cancelo, Otamendi, Sane (might be sold) etc.

The striking thing for me though is that none of those names really strike fear into you.

They're all good, to very good players, but their only world class, consistent match winner atm, IMO, is KdB (and Laporte at the back). You could argue Aguero but he is being "game managed" these days and David Silva is getting on.

Obviously if it all clicks, they are a world class team. But they have definitely dropped a level or so since Pep's first few years. Things might change. Sterling might hit some form again, or someone like Bernardo/Sane (if he is not sold) could step up.
 

SambaBoy

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It's difficult to say for certain as with careful planning, it may not even be the same teams in 2-3 years. They could replace vital cogs in their teams and carry on as normal. Fergie was great at freshening up his squad even whilst teams were winning trophies. I can see City changing most of their team in the next 1-2 years. I can see them bringing in a CB, LB, CF, CM and a winger in the next few windows.
 

elmo

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Why you lumping the 28 year olds under the old players for Liverpool but putting them under in their primes for us?

Chelsea's young players are pretty much playing all in the same positions, so a bunch of them would probably end up on the bench or leave the club.
 

RedRob

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Less likely for Liverpool - Klopp has a good recruitment track record, can develop youth, and makes teams greater than the sum of their parts. If he stays, they'll continue to do well.

City may be a whole different story if their European ban gets upheld. These players entering their primes may not want to lose their best chance at winning the Champions League and may start to force exits, and they'll be a much less attractive destination for me players until the ban ends too.
 

Josh 76

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Covit 19 is the game changer. If next season is played behind closed doors. Then the big transfers that Liverpool and City were hoping for to bring in will not happen.

Every team has a cycle which needs to be tinkered with to continue the success.

The 94 and 99 team are prime examples of that.

I can see the gap closing for that reason alone.
 

Pep's Suit

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City is at the verge of a big reshuffle in the dressing room giving their weak defence. It will be interesting to see if Pep and the players are willing to weather the storm if they should get kicked out of Europe for two seasons ( something I'm very sceptical about). The likes of Chelsea are still around and if Newcastle should get bought all off a sudden City don't look like a prime destination (no Europe, prehaps Pep leaves etc). Liverpool, on the other hand, look like dominating if they sign a proper midfielder or two for at least another two seasons which pains me to say but is the truth.
I don't think we'll see many changes to City's defence. Cancelo could go if he's really so desperate to leave but for a CB role there's no obvious candidate right now: Ruben Dias and Pau Torres were linked but none of them would be a game-changer.
 

Nickelodeon

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Liverpool have a fantastic starting 11 but I'm not so sure on the squad. Going by Fergie's principles, it is always imperative to strengthen when you're at the top to maintain the drive and hunger to win more and more. Liverpool aren't doing that, at least as of now. I was quite sure that they would go for Werner but good that they didn't.

They have been fortunate with the long term injury records of most of their important players. However, next season there might be a big gap in Salah and Mane's availability around Jan/Feb due to ACN. I'm curious to see their transfer activity before making any judgment calls but I hope/expect them to definitely not be at this level next season. We have seen many PL champions fall off the metaphorical cliff in their defending seasons (Leicester, Chelsea (Mourinho), Chelsea (Conte)), no reason why the same couldn't happen to Liverpool.

Their current season has been pretty similar to Arsenal's invincibles season with everything going their way in the league and while disappointing showings in the Cup competitions. I hope their future trajectory remains the same as well.
 

Finn MacCool

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With Van Dijk about to sign a new contract our first choice defence looks rock solid for the next 4 years. In midfield we need to get more out of Keita and definitely will see some new faces over the next couple of years as Milner, Hendo and Gini all pass their prime. I’m confident Klopp can replace them as needed. Hoping Minamino and Jones both get opportunities in these final 9 games and start to stake a claim for more starts next season.

Our attack is in its prime and good for another couple of years but no doubt this will be Klopp’s biggest recruitment challenge and could be the deciding factor in how long we stay challenging for titles. The Werner saga shows we’re not willing or able to spend big(ish) in the current climate. Although it’s likely he would not have been a starter for us which could also have been a factor. If the ACN doesn’t get moved next season we will be in trouble. A decision on that is due to be made soon and could impact our transfer strategy.

But as some have mentioned the biggest factors setting City and Liverpool apart are the managers. Ole and Lampard are building good sides but still have to prove they can turn promise into tangible success. It’s possible one, or even both (unlikely) could be in the Europa League next season.
 

El Jefe

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We're not starting to see any of this. Could this happen? possibly but based on what we've seen the answer is no. Liverpool have been excellent and if not for injuries too Sane and Laporte , City would be a lot closer to the top.

The gap between those two and United and Chelsea might close but make no mistake about it they are still the best two clubs in the league and will be very surprised if they still aren't next season.
 

SilentWitness

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I reckon Liverpools squad will let them down rather than their first team. That first 11 still has a couple of years in them but the type of football they play isn't sustainable without good rotation and I don't think the back-ups in some positions are good enough. I'd be worried if i were them about the lack of funds in the Werner deal because they didn't do much last summer/January and they've already been priced out of a player which isn't actually that high of a fee if you consider the market of the last couple of years. There is the argument that the Covid situation is going to bring transfer fees down but I'm not sure if the Chillwell/Sancho rumours are true. Perhaps a case of the big clubs hoping that they'd be lowered but the lesser clubs refusing to budge unless they're in serious financial trouble.
 

Varun

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I hate it when people club Pool with City. They've been relevant at the top for 1.5 years for feck sakes.
 

RobinLFC

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Wasn't this said about us every year in the 2000's?
You had Ferguson though... As long as we have Klopp we will be there or thereabouts to compete for the title, but let's say he leaves and our squad isn't heavily invested in at that point (so all our top players would be around 30 or older), then we have to be very cautious not to regress to the 2010-2014 mean, or fall of a cliff like Arsenal have.

Of course this is still a long way off right now but I'd like to see us invest while we're on top (and able to attrack top tier players) rather than rest on our laurels and be happy with what we're doing right now. The behavior of our owners, e.g. not even bidding for Werner, unfortunately suggests the latter.
 

Varun

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Gosh. You write as if Liverpool have been in the top-two of the Premier League for a long, long time - like four, five years!

Liverpool finished 8th in 2015-16 when Leicester won the title.
They barely scraped past fifth-placed Arsenal in 2016-17 when Chelsea won the title.
They again finished fourth in 2017-18 when City won the title.

They have been good for one full season (2018/19) and in another asterisked season (2019/20). That's it.
People should stop talking them up as a team that has been in the top-two of the Premier League for ages.
THIS
 

flappyjay

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So premature and lot of this is based on a possible decline of players that may not happen as quick as some hope. Obviously if they don't add some more quality to their current 11 chances are that the chasing pack will catch up. As we saw City thinking they could get away with not replacing Mega Head.

Obviously for City the big factor is the upcoming ban. They are on the verge of losing Silva and if De Bruyne decides 2 years out of ucl is too long then they will probably drop down to the level of United and Chelsea.
 

NotoriousISSY

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What's the obsession with 30 years of age?

Some of our best ever players put in their best performances in and around that period of their career. RVP was 29 when he put in his best season. Carrick was fantastic in his thirties. Scholes reinvented himself at 30. Cantona was putting up good numbers as he approached 30. Evra, Vidic, Rio, Giggs...the list goes on.

Good recruitment around that experience is the keym

Liverpool's only issue will be their squad as a whole. Their starting XI is obviously the team to beat right now, but if they have ambition to go and win doubles and trebles, they must improve their squad, even if it means the likes of Firmino, Fabinho, Wijnaldum and the current full backs play fewer games.

City will be back up there again. They're going nowhere.
 

romufc

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Of course this is still a long way off right now but I'd like to see us invest while we're on top (and able to attrack top tier players) rather than rest on our laurels and be happy with what we're doing right now. The behavior of our owners, e.g. not even bidding for Werner, unfortunately suggests the latter.
The issue with this is that Liverpool have a solid first 11. Anyone they buy will have to be either that quality or better, that means there is only a select few. Which leads to higher transfer fee and wages. Are you going to spend £50-100m on a player like Sancho and have him on 220k a week on the bench ?

If not who does he replace? what happens to morale ? These players have been doing so well for 2.5 years so you cannot just drop them, they surely have bought 3/4 months leway?
 

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Liverpool will be alright for a few years and if Klopp remains they'll still compete for titles. They've generally invested well and if they sold their stars they could bring in adequate replacements.

City could simply buy a new generation of talent but it will depend on whether they're kicked out of Europe or if the authorities come down hard on them for overspending. Guardiola will burn out and look for a new challenge. Does he want to rebuild City? I don't know but his track record shows he doesn't stay for extended periods of time.

Chelsea and United have the means to bounce back but whether they can do this is another matter.
 

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Man City is based on vast mountains of cash so they are not going anywhere. Liverpool have been great but they have been incredibly lucky. Thats not being a sore loser its true. They have 0 injuries. They bought players that turned out 10 times better than anyone could have ever predicted. Yes fair play to their coaching and recruitment but still there has to be a huge slice of luck. They sold Coutinho for the most ridiculous fee which helped them more than financially. Can they repeat this? I guess but they would need to rely on luck as much as skill whereas Man City can just buy buy buy like they spent 200 mill on full backs till they got it right
 

Rob

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I don’t think either side is as old as you make it out to be, though, in Liverpools case, I would prefer it if we added an attacker. It’s why I was a bit bummed out that the Werner deal didn’t happen as I was hoping for a fourth player to rotate the front three.

Who knows what’ll happen for the rest of the transfer window but if nothing does, we’ll be in trouble when Salah and Mane leave for the AFCON and if more than one of them or Firmino gets injured at the same time.
 

VeevaVee

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Fully agree with @TheLord .

That said, they are at the top at the mo, but their football has got visibly worse since that one year where it was blistering (although a lot of people uncluding the media talk like it's still there). Another motivation hit in the form of "we've done it now" could be all that's needed to send em back down the table a notch or two.

Changing the key personnel is going to be incredibly tough I imagine. It could all fall apart completely at that point.

City is a strange one. Once Pep loses steam, which could be imminent or even already happened, it's likely over. I expect another manager will do well with them, but there's not many managers left. This will give other teams a chance to catch up.
 

romufc

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Man City is based on vast mountains of cash so they are not going anywhere. Liverpool have been great but they have been incredibly lucky. Thats not being a sore loser its true. They have 0 injuries. They bought players that turned out 10 times better than anyone could have ever predicted. Yes fair play to their coaching and recruitment but still there has to be a huge slice of luck. They sold Coutinho for the most ridiculous fee which helped them more than financially. Can they repeat this? I guess but they would need to rely on luck as much as skill whereas Man City can just buy buy buy like they spent 200 mill on full backs till they got it right
I agree with this, It comes across as being a sore loser but also we have to face it. Like some posters have said, Klopp has got his signings right etc. This is easier to do when you are not under immense pressure. No one was expecting Mane, Salah, Robbo to be what they are. No one expected Gini, Hendo to up their level this much. However good your recruitment is, there will be a point where you make a mistake. SIgning a £70/80m player that doesnt fulfil his potential.

Injuries is a big one, we have seen it time after time in the PL, the team with least injuries and most consistent 11 does well, even with the case of Leicester when they won the PL, Wolves last few season and SU this season.

Unfortunately, we have not been able to field the same front 3/4 for even 4 games in a row this season.

Last season, when Ole came in and we went on a great run, we had the same team playing and then we hit injuries and it fell off.
 

Random Task

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I hate it when people club Pool with City. They've been relevant at the top for 1.5 years for feck sakes.
Indeed, it's laughable.

It may also be worth pointing that this great, unstoppable Liverpool side are yet to win a domestic league title. Comparing them with City is a non-starter for me.
 

MancunianAngels

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Next season, we’ll see a much closer top 6. Liverpool and City will drop more points.

Thats not even taking into account how football in a post Covid-19 world is gonna look.

Wolves/Leicester might pick up loads of bargains in the transfer market and put up a title challenge.
 

Cornish

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Yes Liverpool have been good for the last 2 years but will the players and management be motivated enough to go and do it again next season? Every season we have the same conversation in the media of "They've built a squad that can go on and dominate for years" yet remember how difficult it appears to have been to win back to back Premier Leagues.
In recent years it's proved extremely difficult. Man City only managed to do it for the first time last year, Chelsea won it a few years back and then had an absolute stinker the following year, Leicester won it and were then flirting with relegation the season after. It's not easy.

Whats not to say the same will happen to Liverpool next season. After all this is what they've all been working towards since Klopp joined. Now he's done it* then are they motivated enough to be able to perform to same standard again next season? These last 2 seasons have been a freak result/point wise and so if Liverpool's standards slip then City, Chelsea, Utd are all in a position to capitalise I believe.
 
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