Alexei Navalny | Has died in prison, according to the Russian prison service

[Simbo]

@harms expecting anything to happen after this or is it going to go the way of Nemtsov?

 

[harms]

@harms expecting anything to happen after this or is it going to go the way of Nemtsov?

Not really. I mean, they've detained more than 200 people last night for laying down flowers at random memorials, there's no real room for escalation, everyone's rightly scared. And those who could've potentially organized something are either imprisoned or abroad (or killed — not that there were many but more than 0 is more than enough).

 

[Simbo]

Not really. I mean, they've detained more than 200 people last night for laying down flowers at random memorials, there's no real room for escalation, everyone's rightly scared. And those who could've potentially organized something are either imprisoned or abroad (or killed — not that there were many but more than 0 is more than enough).

Another couple years of Russia's economy being bogged down in Ukraine and costs felt more and more at home and I suppose something like this may act as more of a catalyst. All the more reason to get him out the way sooner rather than later.

 

[Sir Matt]

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[RedDevilQuebecois]

Another couple years of Russia's economy being bogged down in Ukraine and costs felt more and more at home and I suppose something like this may act as more of a catalyst. All the more reason to get him out the way sooner rather than later.

I genuinely hope for the chain of events to go as you predict. Nevertheless, a part of me is worried that Putin could exactly find ways to survive and extend his power like Erdogan has done in Turkey, despite the many crises his government went through.

Outside of what this means for Russia, my biggest concern now is that Navalny's death is also a signal for Xi to do exactly the same against Jimmy Lai - the most preeminent voice for democracy in Hong Kong. Now that the Iranian regime already did what they did against the anti-hijab crowd and now that Navalny is no more, all eyes are on the CCP. Fecking dictatorial regimes, man.

 

[calodo2003]

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[Simbo]

I genuinely hope for the chain of events to go as you predict. Nevertheless, a part of me is worried that Putin could exactly find ways to survive and extend his power like Erdogan has done in Turkey, despite the many crises his government went through.

Outside of what this means for Russia, my biggest concern now is that Navalny's death is also a signal for Xi to do exactly the same against Jimmy Lai - the most preeminent voice for democracy in Hong Kong. Now that the Iranian regime already did what they did against the anti-hijab crowd and now that Navalny is no more, all eyes are on the CCP. Fecking dictatorial regimes, man.

Yeah, dictators need dictators at the end of the day, so they prop each other up where possible. They are a dying breed, unfortunately its a long process, generational.

I'm not sure Xi is quite near Putin's level though. I think he at least still cares somewhat about his country, not just about his own power, for now at least. Time will tell.

 

[frostbite]

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[VorZakone]

Let's see how this goes then...

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[Mike Smalling]

They are due a revolution in Russia. I know they are being fed a lot of propaganda, but surely a large share of the population can see how fecked up their situation is.

We haven't heard a lot about their economy for a while, but it must be severely hit by sanctions and millions of men being away fighting. Can't be good.

 

[Jev]

They are due a revolution in Russia. I know they are being fed a lot of propaganda, but surely a large share of the population can see how fecked up their situation is.

We haven't heard a lot about their economy for a while, but it must be severely hit by sanctions and millions of men being away fighting. Can't be good.

A large majority of ordinary Russians say they are largely unaffected by the sanctions.

 

[DT12]

They are due a revolution in Russia. I know they are being fed a lot of propaganda, but surely a large share of the population can see how fecked up their situation is.

We haven't heard a lot about their economy for a while, but it must be severely hit by sanctions and millions of men being away fighting. Can't be good.

Today's main CNN headline: "The Kremlin Has Never Been Richer" -

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/19/europe/russia-oil-india-shadow-fleet-cmd-intl/index.html

IMF raises Russian GDP forecast again. It's outperforming both Germany and the UK -

https://www.ft.com/content/21a5be9c-afaa-495f-b7af-cf937093144d

 

[Kaush949]

They are due a revolution in Russia. I know they are being fed a lot of propaganda, but surely a large share of the population can see how fecked up their situation is.

We haven't heard a lot about their economy for a while, but it must be severely hit by sanctions and millions of men being away fighting. Can't be good.

 

[Kaush949]

As much as we want Russia to collapse, I think they are best positioned to benefit over the next 50 years driven by few fundamental factors:

1. They are very resource rich. Not just oil & gas but also base & precious metals etc.

2. Climate change is forecasted to shift the crop fertility zone northward. Russia and Canada are expected to be the biggest beneficiaries if this.

How they will leverage these natural advantages is to be seen.

 

[massi83]

Today's main CNN headline: "The Kremlin Has Never Been Richer" -

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/19/europe/russia-oil-india-shadow-fleet-cmd-intl/index.html

IMF raises Russian GDP forecast again. It's outperforming both Germany and the UK -

https://www.ft.com/content/21a5be9c-afaa-495f-b7af-cf937093144d

What's the point of you. You have like 5 post about other things than russia. You have let your mask down so many times (probably drunk) that even the most gullible people know you are nothing but a russian propagandist. Nobody takes anything you write seriously.

 

[Mike Smalling]

Thanks, will give that a watch. I guess it's not nearly as bad as I would have expected.

Of course, the argument is also only part economic. There is also the clear corruption and cleptocracy that Navalny was working hard to expose, and the fact that so many people must have a son, father, brother, or friend either killed or wounded in the war.

 

[Kaush949]

What's the point of you. You have like 5 post about other things than russia. You have let your mask down so many times (probably drunk) that even the most gullible people know you are nothing but a russian propagandist. Nobody takes anything you write seriously.

Not sure about his other posts, but the particular post you referenced are facts mate.

 

[massi83]

Not sure about his other posts, but the particular post you referenced are facts mate.

I know. So what? Mate. If you have no idea what you are talking about, you could, you know, not talk.

 

[Simbo]

What's the point of you. You have like 5 post about other things than russia. You have let your mask down so many times (probably drunk) that even the most gullible people know you are nothing but a russian propagandist. Nobody takes anything you write seriously.

I'm convinced he's an actual paid troll. He's mentioned before he lives in St. Petersburg, where the troll farms are based. Registered here around the time they (Internet Research Agency) were set up ready for the Trump campaign, when I'm sure they registered accounts on any remotely popular forum/community around the western world. Posts are often essay's with media links at the ready to back up his half-truth's, as if he does it for a living.

I'm sure they pay very well for fluent English speakers.

 

[Raoul]

New sanctions to be announced tomorrow.

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[That_Bloke]

They are due a revolution in Russia. I know they are being fed a lot of propaganda, but surely a large share of the population can see how fecked up their situation is.

We haven't heard a lot about their economy for a while, but it must be severely hit by sanctions and millions of men being away fighting. Can't be good.

Nope.

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

I'm convinced he's an actual paid troll. He's mentioned before he lives in St. Petersburg, where the troll farms are based. Registered here around the time they (Internet Research Agency) were set up ready for the Trump campaign, when I'm sure they registered accounts on any remotely popular forum/community around the western world. Posts are often essay's with media links at the ready to back up his half-truth's, as if he does it for a living.

I'm sure they pay very well for fluent English speakers.

I think the Caf should just boot him out. It's very abnormal that he is a full member with only 93 posts in 10 years.

 

[africanspur]

Alexei Navalny: Putin critic about to be freed in prisoner swap when he died, says ally

Alexei Navalny was about to be freed in a prisoner swap when he died, according to his ally Maria Pevchikh.

She said the Russian opposition leader was going to be exchanged for Vadim Krasikov, a Russian hitman who is serving a life sentence for murder in Germany.

Two US citizens currently held in Russia were also going to be part of the deal, Ms Pevchikh claimed. She added that negotiations were at their final stage on 15 February.

 

[Real Name]

Live updates: The funeral of Alexey Navalny, Russian opposition figure (cnn.com)

 

[Raoul]

The lines looked extremely long. Suspect this isn't turning out how Putin wanted.

 

[Simbo]

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[Raoul]

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Is somber but proud moment for Brad Fiedel.

 

[harms]

The lines looked extremely long. Suspect this isn't turning out how Putin wanted.

Chanting "no to war" as well.

 

[Raoul]

Still a work of art 3 years and 130m views on. (subtitles on)

 

[WPMUFC]

One of the best podcast series i've ever heard. This one is from today on Navalny

 

[Sir Matt]

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Scum. Using facial recognition from videos to imprison the mourners. I realize Putin's goons don't have consciences, but I sometimes wonder what they think of arresting people for attending a funeral. If there's ever another revolution in Russia, the deserve to be first against the wall.

 

[Raoul]

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[That_Bloke]

Not really. I mean, they've detained more than 200 people last night for laying down flowers at random memorials, there's no real room for escalation, everyone's rightly scared. And those who could've potentially organized something are either imprisoned or abroad (or killed — not that there were many but more than 0 is more than enough).

You're much better informed about the Russian domestic situation than I'll ever be and an outstanding poster, hence my question to you and you only: How much of a domestic support and following did Navalny have in Russia? What exactly were his ideas and political program? What would be a credible alternative to Putin? I've done my own research but having a hard time navigating through the waters, and it would be great to hear an informed opinion from someone who lives in Russia.

Thanks.

 

[harms]

You're much better informed about the Russian domestic situation than I'll ever be and an outstanding poster, hence my question to you and you only: How much of a domestic support and following did Navalny have in Russia? What exactly were his ideas and political program? What would be a credible alternative to Putin? I've done my own research but having a hard time navigating through the waters, and it would be great to hear an informed opinion from someone who lives in Russia.

Thanks.

It's incredibly hard to properly assess the real support for Navalny in a country with an active military censorship, especially when he and his comrades were labeled, in the eyes of the law, as terrorists. A lot of those who supported him have fled the country since the beginning of the full scale invasion, but overall — it's still in millions, with most of them being relatively young. How many millions would be anyone's guess though. It's certainly not even close to the majority, but it's a considerable number.

The last elections he was allowed to participate in were the Moscow mayoral elections of 2013 where he got 27%. That's the official number though and the elections (like all of the Russian elections over the past decade at least) were far from fair. In all likelihood he probably didn't get the majority of the votes but in fair elections he would've gone to the second round with Sobyanin (who luckily enough got just over 50%). That was 2013 though, more than a decade ago... and in Moscow, where Navalny would get more support than overall across the country.

As for his program — he changed it quite a bit but it doesn't really matter. As for his own views, he was a populist, so, aside from the war on corruption & less centralized power hierarchy it's hard to pinpoint which of his political goals were genuine. Most likely in a normal world he would be a right-leaning centrist. But it really doesn't matter as the main goal of the opposition is — and was — to overthrow Putin first and foremost, that's the important bit.

As for who would be the credible alternative to Putin? No idea. He himself does everything to eliminate any potential rivals from his own camp (the last notable one was Medvedev who is know a royal jester). From the opposition? There isn't really a standout figure there anymore. Maybe we'll follow the Belorussian scenario with Yulia Navalnaya taking on the mantle. It's certainly an issue that we don't have a central figure to rally around anymore, not that it was working very well before that.

 

[That_Bloke]

It's incredibly hard to properly assess the real support for Navalny in a country with an active military censorship, especially when he and his comrades were labeled, in the eyes of the law, as terrorists. A lot of those who supported him have fled the country since the beginning of the full scale invasion, but overall — it's still in millions, with most of them being relatively young. How many millions would be anyone's guess though. It's certainly not even close to the majority, but it's a considerable number.

The last elections he was allowed to participate in were the Moscow mayoral elections of 2013 where he got 27%. That's the official number though and the elections (like all of the Russian elections over the past decade at least) were far from fair. In all likelihood he probably didn't get the majority of the votes but in fair elections he would've gone to the second round with Sobyanin (who luckily enough got just over 50%). That was 2013 though, more than a decade ago... and in Moscow, where Navalny would get more support than overall across the country.

As for his program — he changed it quite a bit but it doesn't really matter. As for his own views, he was a populist, so, aside from the war on corruption & less centralized power hierarchy it's hard to pinpoint which of his political goals were genuine. Most likely in a normal world he would be a right-leaning centrist. But it really doesn't matter as the main goal of the opposition is — and was — to overthrow Putin first and foremost, that's the important bit.

As for who would be the credible alternative to Putin? No idea. He himself does everything to eliminate any potential rivals from his own camp (the last notable one was Medvedev who is know a royal jester). From the opposition? There isn't really a standout figure there anymore. Maybe we'll follow the Belorussian scenario with Yulia Navalnaya taking on the mantle. It's certainly an issue that we don't have a central figure to rally around anymore, not that it was working very well before that.

Thanks a bunch for for the speedy reply.

That it is in millions was enough to make Navalny a force to be reckoned with. I still question the timing of his death, but can see why Putin would rather see him gone. For good. The bit about the Moscow elections is enlightening. As is your depiction of his political program and goals, which match my (very superficial) observations. The spirit of times, I guess.

My knowledge of Belarus is sadly lacking. Lukashenko is a Russian drone, that much I know, but not enough on the domestic situation. What do you mean by "Navalnaya taking on the mantle" ? Does she have the means and abilities to build on her husband's legacy?

That's the MO of a successful dictatorship, I've seen it many times before. However the system Putin has built can hardly survive without a "strong man" at its helm. Is there anyone in his court able to preserve and expand on his work? He's not immortal, he knows it and must have been grooming someone, Medvedev not being part of the plan. Is there really no one?

 

[harms]

My knowledge of Belarus is sadly lacking. Lukashenko is a Russian drone, that much I know, but not enouch on the domestic situation. What do you mean by "Navalnaya taking on the mantle" ? Does she have the means and abilities to build on her husband's legacy?

During the 2020 elections that Lukashenko, by all accounts, lost by some significant margin, the entire opposition voted for a very unlikely candidate — Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the wife of an actual political opponent of Lukashenko who was in prison at the time (and still, sadly, is). Lukashenko had managed to keep hold of the power though due to some brutal repressions (and with Russia's willing help), but the precedent is there. And she's still considered by a lot of Belarussions to be the legitimate president.

Navalnaya said that she's willing to continue her late husband's work. Whenever she'll be able to do it is yet to be seen, but the precedent is there.

That's the MO of a successful dictatorship, I've seen it many times before. However the system Putin has built can hardly survive without a "strong man" at its helm. Is there anyone in his court able to preserve and expand on his work? He's not immortal, he knows it and must have been grooming someone, Medvedev not being part of the plan. Is there really no one?

There's usually a potential successor in the mix but Putin keeps them fairly away from any real power. The current one if we believe the insiders is Aleksey Dyumin, the governor of Tula oblast', but I can guarantee you that the 90% of Russian population doesn't even know who he is. That's the potential weak point of Putin's hierarchy — Putin is too crucial for it's functionality, without him it'll likely crumble in a moment.

 

[That_Bloke]

During the 2020 elections that Lukashenko, by all accounts, lost by some significant margin, the entire opposition voted for a very unlikely candidate — Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the wife of an actual political opponent of Lukashenko who was in prison at the time (and still, sadly, is). Lukashenko had managed to keep hold of the power though due to some brutal repressions (and with Russia's willing help), but the precedent is there. And she's still considered by a lot of Belarussions to be the legitimate president.

Navalnaya said that she's willing to continue her late husband's work. Whenever she'll be able to do it is yet to be seen, but the precedent is there.

Gotcha, thank you.

There's usually a potential successor in the mix but Putin keeps them fairly away from any real power. The current one if we believe the insiders is Aleksey Dyumin, the governor of Tula oblast', but I can guarantee you that the 90% of Russian population doesn't even know who he is. That's the potential weak point of Putin's hierarchy — Putin is too crucial for it's functionality, without him it'll likely crumble in a moment.

I've done a quick search on him. Not nearly enough to have an informed opinion about him, but I can see why you pointed in his direction.

Discreet, unassumed, military background, former Putin bodyguard and a "friend" of his since the end of the nineties. Rewarded with the Tula Oblast for his decades long loyalty and a proponent of the Ukraine invasion. From what I've gathered, the Oblast is one of Russia's most relevant and economically crucial departments. Also far away but still close enough to Moscow. He was was one Prigozhin's buddies though and took part in the negociations to end of his mutiny. Probably sold him down the drain too.

From a very qualified henchman to statesman is quite the leap though. I don't know how he fared in his Oblast since he was appointed, then "elected". I'm also sure that there's other options.

Dyumin will be domestically known once Putin thinks the time is right and he's the horse to bet on, imo. You'll then hear more and more about him on the mainstream channels, but certainly not now. Nevertheless I agree with you, the Putin system only works because he's at the wheel and it makes succession precarious. It highly depends on how the Ukraine War will pan out. If it goes Putin's way, then anyone half-decent and knighted by him will be able to make his way to the top and keep the crown without too much trouble, imo. If not, then all bets are off.

Anyways, again many thanks for your insight.

 

[calodo2003]

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