Best shot-stopping goalkeepers in Europe

[Pagh Wraith]

Inspired by the Kepa discussion in the Lampard thread, I looked at some stats to find out who the best and the worst goalkeepers, more specifically shot-stoppers, are in Europe's top divisions.

I used post-shot expected goals (PSxG) for this. What makes it different from normal expected goals is that it not only looks at where the shot was taken but also where it ended up, thus only considering shots on target and making it the perfect tool to assess goalkeeper's shot-saving abilities. A longer explanation can be found here: https://www.footballcritic.com/feat...-why-is-it-different-from-expected-goalsc/773

I used data from the previous three seasons (2018-2020) from Italy, Spain, England and Germany. I only considered keepers who played at least 70 full 90 minutes which leaves us with 49 players. Data is from fbref.com.



The PSxG +/- column tells us how many more or fewer goals were condeded compared to the average. No surprise who comes in first and last. Lloris might be a surprise to some, per 90 minutes he is even ahead of Oblak.

 

[Red Stone]

Wow, did not expect to see Fabianski that high!

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Good to see big Dave so high up the table. How far would he fall based on last season alone?

 

[Pagh Wraith]

Good to see big Dave so high up the table. How far would he fall based on last season alone?

He's +2.7 net for this season, 11th in the PL.

 

[SilentWitness]

The two worst in the PL are also in the top 5 most expensive GKs of all time (Kepa and Pickford).

 

[Annihilate Now!]

I wonder how much money + De Gea it would take for Atleti to let go of Oblak... in like fantasy singing/football manager kinda world.

 

[TheMagicFoolBus]

Good to see big Dave so high up the table. How far would he fall based on last season alone?

17/18: +13.2 (1st in PL)
18/19: +2.0 (6th in PL)
19/20: +2.7 (8th in PL)

 

[V.O.]

I wonder how much money + De Gea it would take for Atleti to let go of Oblak... in like fantasy singing/football manager kinda world.

Funnily enough, by this metric De Gea has been better than Oblak this year.

 

[giorno]

Honestly, having checked the stats for this season periodically, it showed how streaky this stat can be and how a small number of games can have an outsized influence on it. Which is less an indictment of the stat itself and more of a case of how streaky and random evaluating shot-stopping can be, over a full season. The old mantra that being a goalkeeper for a top club is less about being a great goalkeeper every game and more about being great when it matters rings true


Case in point, De Gea finished this season +2.7, after being in the negative for nearly the entire season(he was still slightly in the negative until about 4-6 games ago iirc)

A break down by season would be more interesting imho

 

[Mindhunter]

Fascinating analysis and tells exactly what we need to know. I would prefer if this takes into account only this season and last though. It would be a more accurate picture of who the "current" best shot stoppers in Europe are.

 

[giorno]

Fascinating analysis and tells exactly what we need to know. I would prefer if this takes into account only this season and last though. It would be a more accurate picture of who the "current" best shot stoppers in Europe are.

This season the best is Levante's Aitor Fernandez with +13.8. Lloris is second(+9.9) then Athletic's Unai Simon (+9.1) followed by 3 guys from Ligue1. Lloris is first x90 and Simon falls all the way to 7th behind 4 gks from Ligue1(Nice's Walter Benitez being 3rd)

Last season it was Nice's Benitez(+13.4) followed by Fabianski(+12.2), Oblak(+12) and Lloris(+10.3). Oblak leapfrogs Fabianski in second x90

17/18 as expected sees De Gea first with +12.1, followed by Nick Pope(+11.5) Alisson(+10.9) and Oblak(+10.6). Pope matches De Gea x90!

 

[Mindhunter]

This season the best is Levante's Aitor Fernandez with +13.8. Lloris is second(+9.9) then Athletic's Unai Simon (+9.1) followed by 3 guys from Ligue1. Lloris is first x90 and Simon falls all the way to 7th behind 4 gks from Ligue1(Nice's Walter Benitez being 3rd)

Last season it was Nice's Benitez(+13.4) followed by Fabianski(+12.2), Oblak(+12) and Lloris(+10.3). Oblak leapfrogs Fabianski in second x90

17/18 as expected sees De Gea first with +12.1, followed by Nick Pope(+11.5) Alisson(+10.9) and Oblak(+10.6). Pope matches De Gea x90!

Thanks for the break up. Really insightful.

That's what I thought - De Gea's position on the list is due to his performances in 17/18. Maybe the OP should assign weightages for each season with recent seasons having a higher weightage.

 

[giorno]

In context, Oblak's 17/18 season is probably the most ridiculous of all

All the other big numbers came behind poor defences. Meaning goalkeepers had a lot to do and that's what allowed them to put up such numbers

Oblak's PS-xG for 17/18 was 31.9 over 38 games. That's a strong defence in front, and he still saved them more than 10 goals. Absurd

 

[Gio]

In context, Oblak's 17/18 season is probably the most ridiculous of all

All the other big numbers came behind poor defences. Meaning goalkeepers had a lot to do and that's what allowed them to put up such numbers

Oblak's PS-xG for 17/18 was 31.9 over 38 games. That's a strong defence in front, and he still saved them more than 10 goals. Absurd

Yeah he’s been the best around for many seasons now. Phenomenal keeper.

 

[Morty_]

Feels odd that Courtois is that low, he surely has had a good season in my book.
Now, even if he did get the most cleen sheets this season, i dont think he is on Oblaks level, but i still found it strange that he is this low.

 

[Grande]

In context, Oblak's 17/18 season is probably the most ridiculous of all

All the other big numbers came behind poor defences. Meaning goalkeepers had a lot to do and that's what allowed them to put up such numbers

Oblak's PS-xG for 17/18 was 31.9 over 38 games. That's a strong defence in front, and he still saved them more than 10 goals. Absurd

Oblak is one of the best on the line, no doubt. Still it’s worth noting that, like United did with De Gea in 16/17, Atletico play in a way that leads to a lot of ginishes against them at times, as opposed to for instance top teams based on possesion dominance does.

 

[TheMagicFoolBus]

Feels odd that Courtois is that low, he surely has had a good season in my book.
Now, even if he did get the most cleen sheets this season, i dont think he is on Oblaks level, but i still found it strange that he is this low.

Courtois' biggest strength by far is his ability to command his area - he's literally the best in the world at dealing with crosses & being proactive. And to be fair, he's +3.3 this season; it was really last year he struggled (-1.8, 15th in La Liga).

 

[giorno]

Oblak is one of the best on the line, no doubt. Still it’s worth noting that, like United did with De Gea in 16/17, Atletico play in a way that leads to a lot of ginishes against them at times, as opposed to for instance top teams based on possesion dominance does.

Ginishes?

 

[giorno]

Courtois' biggest strength by far is his ability to command his area - he's literally the best in the world at dealing with crosses & being proactive. And to be fair, he's +3.3 this season; it was really last year he struggled (-1.8, 15th in La Liga).

Also his final season with chelsea was almost as bad as Kepa(-4.1). Last season he was -3.1

@Morty_ therein lies the issue i mentioned(and why Oblak's 17/18 season is so absurd). While real madrid had a better defence than atletico(30xG vs 31.5), when looking at post-shot xG the situation is reversed(24.4 for atletico vs 28.3 for madrid). From this one can easily infer that the difference between Oblak and Courtois was less about individual performance and more about chances to outperform the metric

 

[TheMagicFoolBus]

Also his final season with chelsea was almost as bad as Kepa(-4.1). Last season he was -3.1

Let's not kid ourselves here; Courtois in 17/18 was at -4.6 & Kepa this year is at -9.6. Kepa is more than twice as bad. Not really close to the same level.

 

[giorno]

Let's not kid ourselves here; Courtois in 17/18 was at -4.6 & Kepa this year is at -9.6. Kepa is more than twice as bad. Not really close to the same level.

Courtois was -4.1 but you're right Kepa this season is -9.2

Mixed up with last season where he was -4.7

Kepa and Courtois are an interesting study. Last season Kepa was -4.7 from 34.3 xG and a per shot value of 0.28. That's bad. This season -9.2 vs 35.8 and 0.35. Honestly, i'm not even sure he was that much worse this season than last

Courtois was -4.1 from 27.9 and 0.26 for chelsea and -3.1 from 32.9 and 0.29 last season.

And i have to correct myself as this season he is +3.5 from 23.5 and 0.26 which is exceptional. Yeah he was better than Oblak this season

 

[TheMagicFoolBus]

Courtois was -4.1 but you're right Kepa this season is -9.6

Mixed up with last season where he was -4.7

Yeah it's genuinely astonishing how poor Kepa has been. Wish you'd bought him but stupid sexy Zidane had to veto the deal when he came back!

 

[Pagh Wraith]

Courtois was -4.1 but you're right Kepa this season is -9.6

Mixed up with last season where he was -4.7

And that's just shot-stopping. At least Courtois has his physical presence and ability to command his area which prevents shots from being taken in the first place. With De Gea it's the other way around. His (generally) great shot-stopping ability makes up for him being rooted on the line. With Kepa you seemingly get the worst of both worlds.

 

[Sassy Colin]

This must be complete rubbish, De Gea is clearly the worst keeper in the PL and has fallen off a cliff, sell him and sack Ole whilst you're at it.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Inspired by the Kepa discussion in the Lampard thread, I looked at some stats to find out who the best and the worst goalkeepers, more specifically shot-stoppers, are in Europe's top divisions.

I used post-shot expected goals (PSxG) for this. What makes it different from normal expected goals is that it not only looks at where the shot was taken but also where it ended up, thus only considering shots on target and making it the perfect tool to assess goalkeeper's shot-saving abilities. A longer explanation can be found here: https://www.footballcritic.com/feat...-why-is-it-different-from-expected-goalsc/773

I used data from the previous three seasons (2018-2020) from Italy, Spain, England and Germany. I only considered keepers who played at least 70 full 90 minutes which leaves us with 49 players. Data is from fbref.com.



The PSxG +/- column tells us how many more or fewer goals were condeded compared to the average. No surprise who comes in first and last. Lloris might be a surprise to some, per 90 minutes he is even ahead of Oblak.

Just shows what great keepers Ter-Stegan and Allison are when you consider their other attributes.

 

[Pagh Wraith]

Just shows what great keepers Ter-Stegan and Allison are when you consider their other attributes.

Definitely. One other thing that stood out for me while going through some stats on fbref (great resource really) is Allison's ability as a sweeper. He's #1 for defensive actions outside the box (Lloris and Fabianski interestingly at #20 and #19) and tied #1 with Ederson for average distance from goal to perform these actions.

 

[giorno]

Yeah, Ter Stegen and Alisson are the two most complete modern goalkeepers around, Ter Stegen in particular is exceptional at just about everything. Alisson is good but not great at commanding his box

 

[BobbyManc]

Thanks for taking the time to compile that, very interesting. Surprisingly, there's not that much that's unexpected in there. Lloris at #2 is the main ranking that stands out to me. Pope is quite high, I think Kepa's shit but didn't realise he was that bad. That's it really. Has someone got Ederson's per-season stats? Be interested to see what that's been. He doesn't make many mistakes but doesn't make many exceptional saves either so his ranking seems about right, I'd have guessed he'd be a little higher but not much. Just a good, competent keeper who is exceptional on the ball and generally effective as a sweeper.

 

[Pagh Wraith]

Thanks for taking the time to compile that, very interesting. Surprisingly, there's not that much that's unexpected in there. Lloris at #2 is the main ranking that stands out to me. Pope is quite high, I think Kepa's shit but didn't realise he was that bad. That's it really. Has someone got Ederson's per-season stats? Be interested to see what that's been. He doesn't make many mistakes but doesn't make many exceptional saves either so his ranking seems about right, I'd have guessed he'd be a little higher but not much. Just a good, competent keeper who is exceptional on the ball and generally effective as a sweeper.

Pretty consistent. Between -3 and +3 each season. This season has been his best.

 

[Okey]

I wonder how much money + De Gea it would take for Atleti to let go of Oblak... in like fantasy singing/football manager kinda world.

I wonder too. Really would be the stuff of dreams. Beautiful article and analysis. Well done OP.

 

[Pow]

All im seeing is how much better we will be next season when we get rid of that trash keeper.

 

[Chipper]

This season the best is Levante's Aitor Fernandez with +13.8. Lloris is second(+9.9) then Athletic's Unai Simon (+9.1) followed by 3 guys from Ligue1. Lloris is first x90 and Simon falls all the way to 7th behind 4 gks from Ligue1(Nice's Walter Benitez being 3rd)

Last season it was Nice's Benitez(+13.4) followed by Fabianski(+12.2), Oblak(+12) and Lloris(+10.3). Oblak leapfrogs Fabianski in second x90

17/18 as expected sees De Gea first with +12.1, followed by Nick Pope(+11.5) Alisson(+10.9) and Oblak(+10.6). Pope matches De Gea x90!

Interesting stuff on Benitez. Can't say I've heard of him but I bet some clubs have noticed that. 2 years near the top of the stats, 27 years old and not playing for one of the bigger clubs. Got to be hot property.

Edit: Blimey, signed a new contract in May, was on the verge of becoming a free agent when he did and could have agreed terms to leave on a Bosman from January onwards. I thought clubs were all over stuff like this these days and am surprised nobody snapped him up for free almost on stats alone. Was linked with Wolves apparently but nothing materialised.

 

[BobbyManc]

Pretty consistent. Between -3 and +3 each season. This season has been his best.

Cheers. I was gonna say I thought this season had been his strongest, he had a couple of errors early on but been great aside of that.

All im seeing is how much better we will be next season when we get rid of that trash keeper.

Kepa’s crap isn’t he, I didn’t realise how widely Chelsea fans despised him until I saw the jubilant responses on Twitter to the line-up v Wolves that had Willy in goal.

 

[TheMagicFoolBus]

Courtois was -4.1 but you're right Kepa this season is -9.2

Mixed up with last season where he was -4.7

Kepa and Courtois are an interesting study. Last season Kepa was -4.7 from 34.3 xG and a per shot value of 0.28. That's bad. This season -9.2 vs 35.8 and 0.35. Honestly, i'm not even sure he was that much worse this season than last

Courtois was -4.1 from 27.9 and 0.26 for chelsea and -3.1 from 32.9 and 0.29 last season.

And i have to correct myself as this season he is +3.5 from 23.5 and 0.26 which is exceptional. Yeah he was better than Oblak this season

Ah good catch, I was using team stats.

Regardless, I'd be hard pressed to say Courtois didn't deserve the Zamora award. He's been brilliant and been a huge cornerstone for what I'd argue is the best defense in Europe.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Interesting stuff on Benitez. Can't say I've heard of him but I bet some clubs have noticed that. 2 years near the top of the stats, 27 years old and not playing for one of the bigger clubs. Got to be hot property.

Edit: Blimey, signed a new contract in May, was on the verge of becoming a free agent when he did and could have agreed terms to leave on a Bosman from January onwards. I thought clubs were all over stuff like this these days and am surprised nobody snapped him up for free almost on stats alone. Was linked with Wolves apparently but nothing materialised.

Can he kick well? Nick Pope is one of the best shot stoppers in the PL and the most commanding in his box but his feet are pretty poor. In the modern game that means he probably won’t get a move to a top club.

 

[LVGSdive]

The phrase shot stopper is so lazy and stupid.

Every goal keeper is a shot stopper by default.

Isn't it better to judge a goalkeeper on how they catch the ball, push the shots out to safety, positioning, command crosses and corners, how they get out quickly to beat the attacker to a through ball, how they shut down a one on one, hand/arm/leg strength, diving technique, passing range and accuracy etc... Etc...

 

[TheMagicFoolBus]

The phrase shot stopper is so lazy and stupid.

Every goal keeper is a shot stopper by default.

Isn't it better to judge a goalkeeper on how they catch the ball, push the shots out to safety, positioning, command crosses and corners, how they get out quickly to beat the attacker to a through ball, how they shut down a one on one, hand/arm/leg strength, diving technique, passing range and accuracy etc... Etc...

I mean yes, it's better to judge a goalkeeper on 10 different categories as opposed to 1. That said, of the 10 attributes you've cited 5 are included in any normal assessment of shot stopping.

Pretty obviously though the main function of a goalkeeper is to stop shots and thus it makes the most sense to weigh that attribute most heavily. I'm genuinely flabbergasted that this needs to be posted on this forum.

 

[hasanejaz88]

Surprisingly to see Yann Sommer so high up. A lot of people rave about him in the BL but I've never thought he is a top tier keeper and Gladbach is his level. He does make plenty of saves but then screws up also in big moments, but I guess that would be difficult to show statistically.

 

[TheMagicFoolBus]

Surprisingly to see Yann Sommer so high up. A lot of people rave about him in the BL but I've never thought he is a top tier keeper and Gladbach is his level. He does make plenty of saves but then screws up also in big moments, but I guess that would be difficult to show statistically.

Yeah brainfarts aren't really properly accounted for in this analysis - Sommer is an interesting one as he's a great shot stopper but is mostly pretty bad at every other aspect of goalkeeping. Poor command of the area, mediocre on the ball, prone to giving it away to the opposition, etc.

 

[izec]

Yeah brainfarts aren't really properly accounted for in this analysis - Sommer is an interesting one as he's a great shot stopper but is mostly pretty bad at every other aspect of goalkeeping. Poor command of the area, mediocre on the ball, prone to giving it away to the opposition, etc.

He is also very short for a keeper, 1.83m, which leads to moments where he touches the ball, but can't keep it out.