Brazilian Elections

Luke1995

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Good morning fellow caf members, any of you are following what's going on in Brazil ?

You probably know how Bolsonaro is against social distancing, but in recent weeks, stuff just as serious emerged.

In short, he fired the previous health minister and soon the popular justice previous minister resigned, while making some big claims about Bolsonaro.

If there are any brazilians in the cafe or south american people closer to the situation, please, feel free to provide some more clarity to this as I don't know all the details.
 

Adisa

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It seems he has taken corruption to a whole new level.
 
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MTF

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Good morning fellow caf members, any of you are following what's going on in Brazil ?

You probably know how Bolsonaro is against social distancing, but in recent weeks, stuff just as serious emerged.

In short, he fired the previous health minister and soon the popular justice previous minister resigned, while making some big claims about Bolsonaro.

If there are any brazilians in the cafe or south american people closer to the situation, please, feel free to provide some more clarity to this as I don't know all the details.
You have the overview right. He's an idiot and a lunatic, but I not sure that he'll be removed from power in the near future.
 

maniak

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When deeply corrupted people are jumping off ship, you can only imagine what's going on behind the curtains.

The only positive in all of this is that state governors seem to have the power to just ignore Bolsonaro and do differently in their states.
 

Revan

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You have the overview right. He's an idiot and a lunatic, but I not sure that he'll be removed from power in the near future.
Isn’t Lula extremely popular in Brazil and now that he is out of jail, he is eligible for election?
 

MTF

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Isn’t Lula extremely popular in Brazil and now that he is out of jail, he is eligible for election?
No, it's very questionable whether he's eligible for election because he is still legally guilty for the crimes that put him in jail. As for popularity, I think he'd probably be able to win a presidential run if he did, but it's by no means a layup. His name recognition is as high as can be and his approval is probably decent to good, but levels of rejection are also higher than any other national politician. So I don't know where it would balance out. PT (Workers party) tried to make the last election a referendum on Lula but it didn't result in a win.
 

Luke1995

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You have the overview right. He's an idiot and a lunatic, but I not sure that he'll be removed from power in the near future.
They can't really open impeachment without getting a full group of people together in a room.

So, my guess is, he stays until 2022 and loses the election. From there, anything could happen, he is a crazy crazy man
 

Luke1995

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Actually, when Bolsonaro won some brazilians tried to make comparisons between him and Trump, like the guy was going to take Brazil to new worldwide heights, but what they didn't realize is, Trump is a smart person!

Trump understands economy, Bolsonaro needs the minister to tell everything, among other topics he doesn't know anything about and Trump probably does.

Does that makes Trump a good president ? Maybe, maybe not, but definitely more suited to the role than Bolsonaro.
 

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Was Lula actually guilty, is it possible to conclude anything now? I remember that when it originally happened it was presented (in Norway and elsewhere) as a great anti-corruption effort, but later I've also heard claims that it was essentially a political operation. Considering who is in power now, my ignorant gut instinct is to believe the latter story.

Trump is a smart person!

Trump understands economy
Agree to disagree.
 

berbatrick

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Was Lula actually guilty, is it possible to conclude anything now? I remember that when it originally happened it was presented (in Norway and elsewhere) as a great anti-corruption effort, but later I've also heard claims that it was essentially a political operation. Considering who is in power now, my ignorant gut instinct is to believe the latter story.
Whether he was corrupt or not, the case that took him down was blatnatly political - the judge became Bolsonaro's justice minster and was directing the prosecutors about what arguments to make, and the motivation was at least partly about taking Lula out of politics. The chief justice was also tangentially involved.*
The case itself relates to one apartment used as a bribe for which the evidence isn't that great (Lula's defence was simply that it isn't his house). There are other cases but this was the conviction because of which he was barred from running.

*e - all of this was revealed by texts leaked to the intercept
 

MTF

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Actually, when Bolsonaro won some brazilians tried to make comparisons between him and Trump, like the guy was going to take Brazil to new worldwide heights, but what they didn't realize is, Trump is a smart person!

Trump understands economy, Bolsonaro needs the minister to tell everything, among other topics he doesn't know anything about and Trump probably does.

Does that makes Trump a good president ? Maybe, maybe not, but definitely more suited to the role than Bolsonaro.
Donald Trump is not smart and he does not understand the economy (source: am economist). They are both deeply unintelligent, but in slightly different ways. Trump is absolutely scatter-brained and can't hold a thought or memory for more than a few seconds seemingly. Bolsonaro is less scatter-brained, potentially because he is younger. But he has also demonstrated no ability whatsoever to think of what might be even the immediate consequences of anything he does, much less 2nd or 3rd order consequences. Like being surprised that a ball bounces back if you throw it at a wall. I think Trump has probably been exposed to slightly more thoughts and ideas through his life in business and television, while Bolsonaro was a thoroughly unremarkable junior army officer and later congressman. But they both are deeply insecure and paranoid, that they have in common.

Was Lula actually guilty, is it possible to conclude anything now? I remember that when it originally happened it was presented (in Norway and elsewhere) as a great anti-corruption effort, but later I've also heard claims that it was essentially a political operation. Considering who is in power now, my ignorant gut instinct is to believe the latter story.
All I said is that he is still legally guilty after the 1st level of appeals, which per Brazilian law makes one ineligible to run for any elected office. @berbatrick covered the aspects of the case well. It did uncover widespread corruption led by the Worker's Party (had been in power 12 years by then) but that also largely involved other parties.

Evidence of Lula's direct involvement was the most tangential of all, which was that one construction company would have renovated an apartment for him and also renovated a country home. But there was no evidence of a quid pro quo where Lula requested those renovations in exchange for any specific projects or kickbacks. But they were done by companies that were involved in the much larger corruption schemes. The way the judge conducted the case would probably have guaranteed annulment in other countries, but was generally upheld in Brazil in part because of the large public pressure once the corruption was uncovered.

I'll put it this way: I think in other countries Lula wouldn't have been convicted or done jail time, but also the Workers Party would probably never significantly win votes ever again. In Brazil neither of these were the case.
 

Luke1995

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@MTF But Trump made alot of money, so how he doesn't understand it ? He made alot of deals... I saw that on his book.
 

MTF

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@MTF But Trump made alot of money, so how he doesn't understand it ? He made alot of deals... I saw that on his book.
I don't know if you're serious or not, but being good at business and understanding macroeconomics are different things. Often intelligent and successful businesspeople have a solid working understanding of economics (as they will of other subjects because they are intelligent), but it is not absolutely a requirement to be successful in business. And some people who have a great understanding of economics might also have a limited understanding/ability of business.
 

Luke1995

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I don't know if you're serious or not, but being good at business and understanding macroeconomics are different things. Often intelligent and successful businesspeople have a solid working understanding of economics (as they will of other subjects because they are intelligent), but it is not absolutely a requirement to be successful in business. And some people who have a great understanding of economics might also have a limited understanding/ability of business.
I am. I thought because Trump had big bussiness going on, he would be able to do the same for the country as far as creating jobs and getting the salaries rate higher (or lower depending on what's best..) I'll go study that difference.
 

4bars

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I am. I thought because Trump had big bussiness going on, he would be able to do the same for the country as far as creating jobs and getting the salaries rate higher (or lower depending on what's best..) I'll go study that difference.
Trump's started his first business asking 1 million dollars (back in the 70s was a loooot of money) to his millionaire father. He filed bankupcy 6 times and his dad bailing him out for a value of over 60 million dollars. Having the money and the contacts that Trump has because of his upbringing how stupid you have to be? eventually he had to succeed for pure statistics if you had this kind of money. I mean, If someone would have 60 million dollars back in the 70s would be 400 millions now and if he would put them in a bank at a moderate fix rate probably he would have as much money as he claims he has
 
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No, it's very questionable whether he's eligible for election because he is still legally guilty for the crimes that put him in jail. As for popularity, I think he'd probably be able to win a presidential run if he did, but it's by no means a layup. His name recognition is as high as can be and his approval is probably decent to good, but levels of rejection are also higher than any other national politician. So I don't know where it would balance out. PT (Workers party) tried to make the last election a referendum on Lula but it didn't result in a win.
Well, PT tried to promote Haddad as Lula’s understudy (sorry Dilma) and that failed, but had Lula ran he would have surely won.
 

Luke1995

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Trump's started his first business asking 1 million dollars (back in the 70s was a loooot of money) to his millionaire father. He filed bankupcy 6 times and his dad bailing him out for a value of over 60 million dollars. Having the money and the contacts that Trump has because of his upbringing how stupid you have to be? eventually he had to succeed for pure statistics if you had this kind of money. I mean, If someone would have 60 million dollars back in the 70s would be 400 millions now and if he would put them in a bank at a moderate fix rate probably he would have as much money as he claims he has
Sure! Do you have any examples on other famous people who started a few bussiness without going bankrupt ? I think in the future more bussinessman will run for president
 

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mariachi-19

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I'll take a look, thanks. To be fair to you, I always thought Trump tried to portray himself as more smart or having a more interesting personality than he actually has. His use of social media and brash claims at the election probably helped him win.
The only venture that Trump has ever achieved moderate success at, is a television show in which he was involved in about 5% of the production. The rest of his life's achievements have all turned to shit.

The bloke is a conman and is worth next to nothing. He has networth that is estimated to be in the billions, but doesn't include the billions he owes in debt finance which I woudnt be surprised, exceeds the value of net worth.

As an example of what I mean, Manchester United is valued at 3.5 billion usd or thereabouts. That doesn't mean that if the Glazers wipe the 500 million usd in debt associated with United, Uniteds value will increase to 4 bilion usd. Rather the 3.5 billion is the value of the club based on the market valuation which is exclusive of debt owing by the company.

Similar to a family home. I buy a house for $500,000.00. I finance $400,000.00 of it. That doesn't mean the value of the house is actually $100,000.00, the house is still valued at $500,000.00 and that value is listed next to my name as an asset because I own the Property irrespectively of how much I own on finance. However to me personally, I have $100,000.00 of money in that house so although the gross value of that house is $500,000.00 its net worth to me is $100,000.00 after I pay back creditors. (obviously excluding interest etc)

The way property investors work is that they buy that house for $500,000.00 which also sometimes includes leveraging up to $495,000.00 with finance over a number of loans. If it is an existing build and the investor does not plan to make any changes, they take the punt that the properties value will increase to $600,000.00 and sell out at that point. They either then repay the loan of $495,000.00, take their $105,000.00 "profit" and proceed to invest in another property with some or all of the money; or sell part of the first property to another investor for $300,000.00 and instead of repaying the loan, borrow another $200,000 and purchase a second Property for $500,000.00. Now they are in the position where they owe $795,000.00 in debt, but have $800,000.00 in assets next to their name. So in actual fact, if they were to sell all their assets and pay back their loans, their actually position is $5,000.00... See how somebodies networth can be artificially inflated?


Trump made a "brand" out of doing just that but also included new builds and ripping construction companies off in the process. Problem is, the clown didn't know when to invest wisely and has consistently bankrupted himself over the course of his life. On more than one occasion, he has developed a product that was actually a good investment; however, due to his piss poor skills, took the profit and invested into a bad product (see his second casino in the early 90's or the XFL). This results in the second product going bad which resulted in him losing all his profit from the first property in the second property. Compounding that, because the second property was such a rubbish deal, hes actually owes more on that Property than the money he used to invested in it from the first property. As a result he's now going to lodge a bankruptcy form because he either borrowed so much on the first property to finance the scond property or invested his equity in the first property to the second property, that by the time he sells the first property, there is insufficient funds to pay off the debt owing on the second property.
 

4bars

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Sure! Do you have any examples on other famous people who started a few bussiness without going bankrupt ? I think in the future more bussinessman will run for president
Sure there are. But not 6 times with his that spending 60 millions from his dad (not starting again from scratch) and at the same time considering him a good businessman.
 

Luke1995

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The only venture that Trump has ever achieved moderate success at, is a television show in which he was involved in about 5% of the production. The rest of his life's achievements have all turned to shit.

The bloke is a conman and is worth next to nothing. He has networth that is estimated to be in the billions, but doesn't include the billions he owes in debt finance which I woudnt be surprised, exceeds the value of net worth.

As an example of what I mean, Manchester United is valued at 3.5 billion usd or thereabouts. That doesn't mean that if the Glazers wipe the 500 million usd in debt associated with United, Uniteds value will increase to 4 bilion usd. Rather the 3.5 billion is the value of the club based on the market valuation which is exclusive of debt owing by the company.

Similar to a family home. I buy a house for $500,000.00. I finance $400,000.00 of it. That doesn't mean the value of the house is actually $100,000.00, the house is still valued at $500,000.00 and that value is listed next to my name as an asset because I own the Property irrespectively of how much I own on finance. However to me personally, I have $100,000.00 of money in that house so although the gross value of that house is $500,000.00 its net worth to me is $100,000.00 after I pay back creditors. (obviously excluding interest etc)

The way property investors work is that they buy that house for $500,000.00 which also sometimes includes leveraging up to $495,000.00 with finance over a number of loans. If it is an existing build and the investor does not plan to make any changes, they take the punt that the properties value will increase to $600,000.00 and sell out at that point. They either then repay the loan of $495,000.00, take their $105,000.00 "profit" and proceed to invest in another property with some or all of the money; or sell part of the first property to another investor for $300,000.00 and instead of repaying the loan, borrow another $200,000 and purchase a second Property for $500,000.00. Now they are in the position where they owe $795,000.00 in debt, but have $800,000.00 in assets next to their name. So in actual fact, if they were to sell all their assets and pay back their loans, their actually position is $5,000.00... See how somebodies networth can be artificially inflated?


Trump made a "brand" out of doing just that but also included new builds and ripping construction companies off in the process. Problem is, the clown didn't know when to invest wisely and has consistently bankrupted himself over the course of his life. On more than one occasion, he has developed a product that was actually a good investment; however, due to his piss poor skills, took the profit and invested into a bad product (see his second casino in the early 90's or the XFL). This results in the second product going bad which resulted in him losing all his profit from the first property in the second property. Compounding that, because the second property was such a rubbish deal, hes actually owes more on that Property than the money he used to invested in it from the first property. As a result he's now going to lodge a bankruptcy form because he either borrowed so much on the first property to finance the scond property or invested his equity in the first property to the second property, that by the time he sells the first property, there is insufficient funds to pay off the debt owing on the second property.
Wow, you really went deep into that! Thanks for the very insightful help! So, Trump artificially inflated his net worth, alongside with a brash style of self promotion where he boasted about his wealth and trashed everybody else, and that somehow gave him a brand of a great bussinessman ? I'll have to compare what you just said with all the stuff Trump said in the book I got, but if you're spot on, then as someone who felt happiness buying the book thinking I could learn something from a great bussinessman, I would feel... lied to. Once again, thanks for sharing your knowledge.
 

africanspur

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Was Lula actually guilty, is it possible to conclude anything now? I remember that when it originally happened it was presented (in Norway and elsewhere) as a great anti-corruption effort, but later I've also heard claims that it was essentially a political operation. Considering who is in power now, my ignorant gut instinct is to believe the latter story.
I would lean to the latter as well but in the full knowledge that this is based at least partly on my own political biases.

Problem I've found when discussing politics in South America (a continent I love and which is very dear to my heart) is that everything is so polarised there. Last time I was in Brazil, I got so few middle of the road responses when I asked about Lula. He was either the great saviour, one of the best leaders in the world, who had helped lead millions of Brazilians out of poverty. Or he was the Portuguese speaking Maduro, intent on destroying the country and the economy.
 

Charles Miller

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Bolsonaro still leading the polls for 2022, even when they put Lula in race, what is really diaturbing. Also, in the census of 2010 evangelicals were already 25% of the population. The next census would be this year, moved to 2021 due to covid, but independent studies are showing that evangelicals are more than 40% now. And they are very conservative and believe in all kind of fake news and bizarre conspiracy. Is going to become like a south american version of Alabama, or something like that.
 

George Owen

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Bolsonaro still leading the polls for 2022, even when they put Lula in race, what is really diaturbing. Also, in the census of 2010 evangelicals were already 25% of the population. The next census would be this year, moved to 2021 due to covid, but independent studies are showing that evangelicals are more than 40% now. And they are very conservative and believe in all kind of fake news and bizarre conspiracy. Is going to become like a south american version of Alabama, or something like that.
Just like in the US then.

Trump starts with a 25% of the votes secured as well.
 

Charles Miller

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Just like in the US then.

Trump starts with a 25% of the votes secured as well.
To me the cringest part is that they have an obsesion with Israel. Something that traditionally never existed in Brazilian politics. Antisemitism was never a think, but they have flags of Israel everywhere.
 

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as the left prays for a few unconnected national parties to do better than expected, the right is in power everywhere and is forming a global movement

 

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Charles Miller

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Not that i agree with it but, there is a hashtag in the moment: "forçacovid"(go covid), that i have to admit is funny.