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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .

SteveJ

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Mini Caption Contest: Boris Sings The Blues

 

Kentonio

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I don't think the EU will grant an extension. There needs to be a meaningful deadline at some point.

I could perhaps see them granting an extension for a referendum that includes a Revoke option... maybe. I think they probably don't want us to stay though, as a vote to remain would only be temporary and we'll end up triggering A50 again at some point in the next decade to do it all again.
Yes, but we're not going to get to the point of a referendum unless the option is still available. Unless the 27 shoot Juncker down quickly over this position, MPs will feel like its this deal or no deal and probably vote it through without major amendment.
 

sammsky1

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BREAKING: Juncker rules out Brexit extension
BBC
The President of the European Commission rules out granting an extension to the Brexit deadline of 31 October. Jean-Claude Juncker tells reporters there is no need for an extension now there is a deal on the table.
The European Commission President says he spoke to Boris Johnson about the prospect of an extension.
Jean-Claude Juncker told reporters: "I was ruling out that there would be any kind of prolongation. If we have a deal we have a deal and there is no need for prolongation. That is the British view and that is my view too."
Asked about whether the Commons would allow it, he said: "I am not in charge of Parliamentary affairs of Britain."
 

devilish

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As I understand it NI would remain under the ECJ also. NI will effectively be in the the EU single market and customs union with respect to the areas the EU have assessed as most critical to the integrity of the single market such as agri-food for example. There is provision in the deal for agreed exemptions and personal items traveling from GB to NI when someone moves from GB to NI is the example quoted in the deal. NI is pro-remain and will likely continue to become even more pro-remain in the coming years so the chances of them agreeing to turn a blind eye to GB flooding the EU with unregulated products via NI is never going to happen, particularly considering the amount of EU funding NI receives.
Well I hope you're right. From a purely economic POV, NI is better off using its entry point in the EU to become the smuggling cove for the UK into the single market.
 

sun_tzu

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so May got 286 votes on MV3
Pretty long odds that Boris can actually get a deal through
But can he even get to Mays 286?
Hes only got 288 conservative MP's in total - and the DUP seemed to think if they voted against the deal around 20 of the ERG would back them... im not certain about that but if they do then I think he will do worse than May on MV3...

I dont see many Labour MP's breaking ranks as it does not look like it would achieve anything
 

marktan

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Think there's no chance it gets though parliament on Saturday. If I was still into trading I'd be shorting the pound after last week's bump.

It'll be an extension, and then Bojo will throw his toys out the pram calling for a general election. Which I think the opposition will grant as there's not much else to do.

Then it'll get interesting. The odds don't reflect it but I have a feeling the Lib Dems will make a surge due to their anti brexit stance, essentially getting the remainer vote. Conservatives still likely to win, in which case they'll probably push for no deal, but given the joke the last couple of years under the conservatives have been I think there's a real chance they get booted out and we end up with a party / coalition pushing for a second referendum. I think the public's realised that 'Brexit' isn't just about no longer dealing with EU legislation, it's a shit show.
 

SteveJ

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so May got 286 votes on MV3
Pretty long odds that Boris can actually get a deal through
But can he even get to Mays 286?
Hes only got 288 conservative MP's in total - and the DUP seemed to think if they voted against the deal around 20 of the ERG would back them... im not certain about that but if they do then I think he will do worse than May on MV3...

I dont see many Labour MP's breaking ranks as it does not look like it would achieve anything
There seems to be too many vested interests on all sides to predict the result.
 

Honest John

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so May got 286 votes on MV3
Pretty long odds that Boris can actually get a deal through
But can he even get to Mays 286?
Hes only got 288 conservative MP's in total - and the DUP seemed to think if they voted against the deal around 20 of the ERG would back them... im not certain about that but if they do then I think he will do worse than May on MV3...

I dont see many Labour MP's breaking ranks as it does not look like it would achieve anything
He's got a couple of days to raid the coffers for the DUP. Soften the blow like.
 

Honest John

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If it was going to pass it would need to be something like this:

Tories 288
DUP 10
Independents (Clarke et al) maybe 12
Labour rebels - 12

There could be more possibles among the labour rebels and Independents but without the DUP he is struggling.
 

Rooney24

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EU have always said a No Deal would not be their choice. No way they dont grant an extension if Boris has to ask for it no matter what Juncker says (or is misinterpreted).
 

sun_tzu

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He's got a couple of days to raid the coffers for the DUP. Soften the blow like.
Given the amount of meetings they have had over the past few days i would have thought hes thrown billions at it allready

Even with the DUP though he would need to get I think 24 other MP's and I couldnt see that... Even if he got all of the conservatives who he kicked out that have not joined other parties he still needs a couple more votes

I honestly cant see it
 

Brownie85

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If it was going to pass it would need to be something like this:

Tories 288
DUP 10
Independents (Clarke et al) maybe 12
Labour rebels - 12

There could be more possibles among the labour rebels and Independents but without the DUP he is struggling.
Wouldnt surprise me if a few billion goes the DUPs way to sweeten the deal if they vote in favour. Plus the 19 or so Labour MPs have have apparently signed a letter saying they're willing to support a deal too.

Who knows what's going to happen. How many will see Junkers no need for an extension now we have a deal comments and vote for it out of fear of no deal? How many MPs are just sick of all this Brexit crap and want to get it done so will vote? Corbyn has said the whip wont be removed should Labour MPs decide to approve it, so hes clearly expecting some to vote yes.
 

sun_tzu

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Meanwhile in upside down land....

Thats pretty logical

He probably wants the benn act more than anybody... he knows the brexit party (and him) only have a political future under 2 circumstances:
  • A general election where there has not been an exit from the EU
  • A general election after a referendm where the UK decides to stay
Anything else and he and brexit party are pretty much finished

he does not care about getting no deal - he cares about establishing a (far) right wing party in the UK with himself as the figurehead
 

Gee Male

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Thats pretty logical

He probably wants the benn act more than anybody... he knows the brexit party (and him) only have a political future under 2 circumstances:
  • A general election where there has not been an exit from the EU
  • A general election after a referendm where the UK decides to stay
Anything else and he and brexit party are pretty much finished

he does not care about getting no deal - he cares about establishing a (far) right wing party in the UK with himself as the figurehead
He probably should have held off on calling it the surrender act if he thought he would end up sticking up for it.
 

Maticmaker

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There is a deal, probably nobody is really happy with it... so its probably right!

Junker and Boris have (perhaps by the law of unintended consequences) joined forces to put the opposition in the UK on the backfoot, if they throw it out, no extension, so straight to no deal. Both can stand tall, its not their fault, Junker can retire without ignominy, Boris can face the Leavers with "I told you I'd do it, not my fault the opposition have rejected it"

Of course its not over yet, the fat lady hasn't sung and in particular what will the opposition do? Vote it down, or more than likely try to add the amendment for a second referendum. Assuming that does go through and the deal + amendment is passed by Parliament. The question then becomes... what about the referendum v GE?

If its the referendum that comes first will the opposition seriously ask everyone to go through such a traumatic event again (risking another close result, or even a third referendum) and turn down the deal, when in fact the deal is already passed, or will they call for Article 50 to be revoked, which presumably once the EU and HM Government has ratified the deal, then article 50 will by then, not be 'in play'.
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Does anyone know the answer to any of these questions, that they would care to share?