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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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MikeUpNorth

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For an extra year? If they ever allow it in, it's over for steel.
Yeah, I don’t see much future for UK steel manufacturing. Especially if the UK is serious about hitting its climate targets. The Cumbria coal mine - intended for the steel industry - was a complete debacle.
 

Jippy

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But you said nothing cause you're not a Haribo?
After coming off booze I had a horrific Haribo habit for a few weeks, trying to replace the sugar from umpteen pints. I was at least 40% Haribo then.

Good. You should be encouraging your children to have a good old fashioned British fry instead. Down with sugar and up with cholesterol
I didn't realise Werther's is German. Thought that was a quintessentially (creepy) English brand.
 

Cheimoon

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After coming off booze I had a horrific Haribo habit for a few weeks, trying to replace the sugar from umpteen pints. I was at least 40% Haribo then.
That sounds like these bios of North American people. "Through his mother's ancestry, Jippy is 40% Haribo, but he also has Scottish, Kazach, Italian, and pretzel origins."
 

Buster15

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After coming off booze I had a horrific Haribo habit for a few weeks, trying to replace the sugar from umpteen pints. I was at least 40% Haribo then.


I didn't realise Werther's is German. Thought that was a quintessentially (creepy) English brand.
They can keep them.
 

MikeUpNorth

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Something weird is going on with the UK/EU trade balance at the moment. UK exports to the EU have basically recovered from the big drop after the Brexit deal earlier this year (and are in-line with non-EU exports). But UK imports from the EU are still way down on pre-Brexit.



As far as I can tell, no one really knows why this is happening yet.
 

Paul the Wolf

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Something weird is going on with the UK/EU trade balance at the moment. UK exports to the EU have basically recovered from the big drop after the Brexit deal earlier this year (and are in-line with non-EU exports). But UK imports from the EU are still way down on pre-Brexit.



As far as I can tell, no one really knows why this is happening yet.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/docum...P-EN.pdf/62804a63-f4c6-2425-0e48-739e984c9bfe

To end March, according to these figures exports to the UK are down 14.3% and Imports from the UK down 35.4% year on year
 

Paul the Wolf

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MikeUpNorth

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Hmm, not sure with their explanation.
Here is April for the EU
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/docum...P-FR.pdf/ac857a2b-88f4-0b78-0f11-1c7bfe675f60
Year on year exports to the UK are down 3.3% and Imports from the UK down 27.1%

Assuming ONS get their data from HMRC, no confidence in HMRC at all.
The EU seems to agree with the ONS explanation if you read the Methodology section in the document you posted. A google translate:
Since the introduction of Intrastat on 1 January 1993 in intra-EU trade, the value of intra-EU exports has been consistently higher than that of intra-EU imports. In theory, since exports are declared FOB and arrivals CIF, the value of the corresponding imports should be slightly higher than that of the exports. Eurostat considers intra-EU exports to be the most reliable indicator of total intra-EU trade, since at aggregate level total intra-EU exports have better coverage than total intra-EU imports. Due to this divergence in intra-EU trade and difficulties in interpreting figures in absolute terms at Member State level, Member State trade balances should be interpreted with caution. The same caution should be applied for the euro zone's trade balance, which includes some intra-EU trade.

Dutch trade flows are overestimated due to the so-called “Rotterdam Effect” (or quasi-transit trade): goods destined for other EU countries arrive at Dutch ports and, in accordance with EU rules, are registered as extra-EU imports by the Netherlands (country where goods are released for free circulation). It also increases intra-EU flows from the Netherlands to the Member States to which the goods are re-exported. Although to a lesser extent, the trade figures of other Member States such as Belgium or Luxembourg may also be overestimated due to near-transit.

The UK is considered an extra-EU partner country for the EU for the reporting period covered by this press release. However, the UK was still part of the internal market until the end of the transition period (31 December 2020), which means that trade data with the UK for reference periods up to December 2020 were based on statistical concepts applicable to trade between EU Member States. So the end of the transition period has had an impact on trade flows between the UK and EU member states.

As of January 2021, trade data with UK is based on a mixed concept. In application of the Withdrawal Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland, the statistical concepts applicable for trade with Northern Ireland are the same as those for trade between Member States while for trade with the Kingdom United (excluding Northern Ireland) the same statistical concepts for trade with another extra-EU partner country apply.

For these reasons, data on trade with the UK are not fully comparable with data on trade with other extra-EU trading partners, and for reference periods before and after the end of 2020.


National concepts may differ from the harmonized methodology used by Eurostat, leading to differences between the figures in this release and those published at national level, both for raw data and for seasonally adjusted series.
There's not much point looking at the EU data on EU-UK trade at the moment as it's comparing apples with oranges. Not that the intra-EU trade figures were ever reliable, as per the first paragraph.
 

Paul the Wolf

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The EU seems to agree with the ONS explanation if you read the Methodology section in the document you posted. A google translate:

There's not much point looking at the EU data on EU-UK trade at the moment as it's comparing apples with oranges. Not that the intra-EU trade figures were ever reliable, as per the first paragraph.
Yes plus the NI/Ire situation but declarations should always be based on FOB and if the comparisons are like for like then they should be comparable .

PS Thinking about it further, has this guy from ONS misunderstood the 'Rotterdam Effect' and it's unclear from his example whether the goods from China were imported into the UK , duties and freight paid etc or did it go direct to NL and the UK company just add £100 profit on the goods and invoiced it to an NL company.
Also when he's talking about cars - if the UK company is only finishing it off, as it were, it depends where the bulk of the car was made and if the UK part doesn't meet the minimum %age for Rules of Origin for duties purposes etc.
 
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Adisa

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The same people encouraging booing the players now jumping on the bandwagon. I hate these peoole with a passion.
 

golden_blunder

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Can confirm. They're doing great in my backyard and don't seem to care at all about Brexit. My carrots on the other hand... (sigh)
If I remember correctly from the allotment, carrots are very fussy about the soil. Get yourself a PH kit. You may end up applying a little line to your soil.
Another thing is you could try growing the carrots to baby carrot inside a poly tunnel then transplant them to the final growing ground
 

Cheimoon

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If I remember correctly from the allotment, carrots are very fussy about the soil. Get yourself a PH kit. You may end up applying a little line to your soil.
Another thing is you could try growing the carrots to baby carrot inside a poly tunnel then transplant them to the final growing ground
Well, at least I'm getting this out of Brexit: good gardening tips!

Yeah, the pH is probably not ideal there's as it's next to a cedar and there needles everywhere. But I think I'll just grow two rows of courgettes next year. That sounds like a lot less trouble and also looks prettier (with the big leaves, and also the huge flowers). Plus we eat a lot of courgettes anyway in summer on the barbecue. (Cut small, mixed with mushrooms and/or paprika, with some pepper, salt, and balsamic vinegar. :drool: )
 

FireballXL5

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The BBC hasn't updated it's Brexit news page since the 9th July, so I assume everything's going really well.
 

Paul the Wolf

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The BBC hasn't updated it's Brexit news page since the 9th July, so I assume everything's going really well.
Perhaps they're fed up printing lies.

Here's some more lies to keep you going


Italy, Belgium, Poland, Spain, France, NL amongst others export apples to India.

UK imported $484m of Apples and Pears in 2019 (including $48m from NZ!) and exported a grand total of $18m to the whole world (while they still had fruit pickers)

Waiting for the news that Liz Truss has been locked away in a cupboard - the UK would be safer.