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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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Cheimoon

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You can but it's going to cost you space, money, manpower and time.
None of which is on their side given their preparations (to state the obvious).

I'm mostly replying actually because I realized I forgot to finish my earlier post. I meant to add that, given those problems, that freight traffic is down a lot, and that a good chunk of rules have delayed until July by the UK, the expectation of logistics experts interviewed in the article I read is that what we're seeing right now is actually the quiet before the storm. They expect things to get much worse come summer (which is likely too soon for the UK to fix their practical issues).
 
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JPRouve

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None of which is on their side given their preparations (to state the obvious).

I'm mostly replying actually because I realized I forgot to finish my earlier post. I meant to add that, given those problems, that freight traffic is down a lot, and that a good chunk of rules have delayed until July by the UK, the expectation of logistics experts interviewed in the article I read is that what we're seeing right now is actually the quite before the storm. They expect things to be get much worse come summer (which is likely too soon for the UK to fix their practical issues).
I was being pedantic here. It's possible but no one wants to pay the cost because it's incredibly dumb when you can just be in a custom union which is why custom unions were invented. The alternative is a waste of money and space.
 

Paul the Wolf

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None of which is on their side given their preparations (to state the obvious).

I'm mostly replying actually because I realized I forgot to finish my earlier post. I meant to add that, given those problems, that freight traffic is down a lot, and that a good chunk of rules have delayed until July by the UK, the expectation of logistics experts interviewed in the article I read is that what we're seeing right now is actually the quite before the storm. They expect things to be get much worse come summer (which is likely too soon for the UK to fix their practical issues).
If traffic was normal pre-Covid and certain requirements weren't postponed, all the ports would be at a standstill .

I still don't think the point is really understood. Requirements in documentation have at least doubled in the last twenty years for third party trade, health, safety and climate leading this. Certain products like food require even more than most. So from just supplying an invoice and a packing list they have to supply dozens of documents and relying on many different people such as vets, inspectors, logistic people and so on to complete them all and complete them correctly is almost impossible if the time frame is to deliver something within a day or days.

If you're shipping something to the USA for example which takes several weeks you have less pressure on the timescale.
 

Cheimoon

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If traffic was normal pre-Covid and certain requirements weren't postponed, all the ports would be at a standstill .

I still don't think the point is really understood. Requirements in documentation have at least doubled in the last twenty years for third party trade, health, safety and climate leading this. Certain products like food require even more than most. So from just supplying an invoice and a packing list they have to supply dozens of documents and relying on many different people such as vets, inspectors, logistic people and so on to complete them all and complete them correctly is almost impossible if the time frame is to deliver something within a day or days.

If you're shipping something to the USA for example which takes several weeks you have less pressure on the timescale.
Another Dutch article I read a week ago interview people from the Dutch food inspection agency. They mentioned that, in something like the first two weeks of January (it may have been 16 or 20 days, but anyway), zero (zero!) shipments had arrived in the Netherlands without any documentation issues. This may have been only lorries coming through ferries, I'm not 100% sure, but it remains shocking one way or another.

I was being pedantic here. It's possible but no one wants to pay the cost because it's incredibly dumb when you can just be in a custom union which is why custom unions were invented. The alternative is a waste of money and space.
It's amazing how that point didn't seem obvious to the UK. What were the no-deal people thinking? (Well, full freedom of decision over practicalities, I guess.)
 

Paul the Wolf

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Another Dutch article I read a week ago interview people from the Dutch food inspection agency. They mentioned that, in something like the first two weeks of January (it may have been 16 or 20 days, but anyway), zero (zero!) shipments had arrived in the Netherlands without any documentation issues. This may have been only lorries coming through ferries, I'm not 100% sure, but it remains shocking one way or another.


It's amazing how that point didn't seem obvious to the UK. What were the no-deal people thinking? (Well, full freedom of decision over practicalities, I guess.)
UK Traders who have experience in trading with countries outside the EU would know what to do in general but whether they would have time to do it, very difficult . Considering that a lot of companies who only traded within the EU have no experience at all.

If a Uk company is trading with someone in the EU then it would more than likely be by truck on a ferry/channel tunnel. They would only use containerships for non-urgent or long distance trade.

Regulations also change all the time and never get easier.
Although when the referendum happened I guessed the UK would leave but hoped that common sense would prevail.

Nearly five years later it is clear that nearly all Brexiters still have little to no idea how trade works - how could they place such an important decision in the hands of ordinary people who you couldn't expect to understand the issues, why would they know .
 

Mb194dc

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The UK will never be ready, they do not understand how trade with a third country works. You cannot operate a country which conducts most of its trade with its closest geographical neighbours outside a custom's union. If it's delayed to 2043 it still wouldn't be suitable. This is what the UK voted for even if they didn't realise it. They already have the best of two bad options, the other was a hard border on the island of Ireland.

If there wasn't the pandemic limiting the trade, it would be even worse.
The people in UK customs do understand and it's all written in the UK border model:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-border-operating-model

UK isn't putting a proper border up until July essentially. The problem is maybe the government don't understand or aren't listening.

Things like phytosanitary certificates are a big problem because the UK and EU don't have enough vets to deal with the volume of trade in fresh foods and you can't scale Vets up very fast....

Switzerland doesn't have these problems because there are bi-lateral agreements so standards are dual recognised for phytosanitary etc.

No idea why UK / EU aren't seemingly trying to come to similar agreements to smooth the flow of trade. The trade deal as written is a mutual economic suicide pact. UK and EU both lose out in economic terms. All I can think is that no one wants to "lose face" and do something about it until the problems crystallise.
 

JPRouve

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It's amazing how that point didn't seem obvious to the UK. What were the no-deal people thinking? (Well, full freedom of decision over practicalities, I guess.)
If I remember correctly when the point was raised, some talked about a new technology, a lack of will from the EU and that the EU would make a custom agreement on the UK's terms due to German car manufacturers, Italian Prosecco producers and french farmers.
 

JPRouve

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The people in UK customs do understand and it's all written in the UK border model:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-border-operating-model

UK isn't putting a proper border up until July essentially. The problem is maybe the government don't understand or aren't listening.

Things like phytosanitary certificates are a big problem because the UK and EU don't have enough vets to deal with the volume of trade in fresh foods and you can't scale Vets up very fast....

Switzerland doesn't have these problems because there are bi-lateral agreements so standards are dual recognised for phytosanitary etc.

No idea why UK / EU aren't seemingly trying to come to similar agreements to smooth the flow of trade. The trade deal as written is a mutual economic suicide pact. UK and EU both lose out in economic terms. All I can think is that no one wants to "lose face" and do something about it until the problems crystallise.
You mean that the EU and Switzerland have a joint veterinary committee. They don't just recognize standards.
 

Mb194dc

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You mean that the EU and Switzerland have a joint veterinary committee. They don't just recognize standards.
Yes as part of the agreement, no reason the UK / EU don't ultimately have similar arrangements.

No idea how either side expects trade to work in these kinds of products to work medium term without a similar agreement due to the complications with certificates, amount of Vets and the sheer paper load of it.
 

JPRouve

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Yes as part of the agreement, no reason the UK / EU don't ultimately have similar arrangements.

No idea how either side expects trade to work in these kinds of products to work medium term without a similar agreement due to the complications with certificates, amount of Vets and the sheer paper load of it.
There is an obvious reason that you know perfectly, it's the same reason why they left the EUCU and left the EEA.
 

Paul the Wolf

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The people in UK customs do understand and it's all written in the UK border model:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-border-operating-model

UK isn't putting a proper border up until July essentially. The problem is maybe the government don't understand or aren't listening.

Things like phytosanitary certificates are a big problem because the UK and EU don't have enough vets to deal with the volume of trade in fresh foods and you can't scale Vets up very fast....

Switzerland doesn't have these problems because there are bi-lateral agreements so standards are dual recognised for phytosanitary etc.

No idea why UK / EU aren't seemingly trying to come to similar agreements to smooth the flow of trade. The trade deal as written is a mutual economic suicide pact. UK and EU both lose out in economic terms. All I can think is that no one wants to "lose face" and do something about it until the problems crystallise.
Past experience of UK customs does not assure me that they have much clue of what they're doing, plus they are very understaffed. But that's by the by.

The government are clueless, whether they care is doubtful.
The EU knew what would happen, Barnier, the poor sod, has been trying to explain to the various numpties the UK government sent over.

There are phytosanitary certificates and veterinary certificates amongst many others. There just isn't the time to do them.
Switzerland is a much smaller country but is in the EEA and free movement is allowed. The UK left all this behind.

The UK are treated the same as any other third party country, the UK voted to be a third party country to leave the CU the EEA and the single market. People who knew what they were talking about warned of this before the referendum, few listened.

The UK aren't putting up a proper border because they are totally unprepared but if traffic gets back to normal it is going to be horrendous. They will never be prepared enough even with an efficient border and customs and everything in place.

In the rest of the EU, business is going on as normal , subject to Covid problems, it's only the trade with the Uk that is disrupted.
In January I did about 800km of motorway driving, saw thousands of trucks from all over Europe, one was from Ireland and none from the UK, crazy.
 

Adisa

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Quite remarkable but also predictable that the brexit deal is already unraveling. Now, tories are calling for the NI protocol to be scrapped.
We will be talking about Brexit for years and years.
 

Paul the Wolf

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Quite remarkable but also predictable that the brexit deal is already unraveling. Now, tories are calling for the NI protocol to be scrapped.
We will be talking about Brexit for years and years.
Sounds more like the DUP, the Tories want to extend a transition period of two years of the protocol.
So far between the Tories and the DUP they have threatened to invoke A16 of the NI protocol at least 5 times not counting of course the threat to break international law on numerous ocasions last year but were up in arms of the threat to invoke A16 of the protocol by the EU.

Add to that the chance of having a two year transition period to iron out some of the problems but no the Tories only wanted 11 months.

The hypocrisy is palpable.

As you say it is all so predictable.
 

Maticmaker

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And Guadeloupe , there are plenty more , Guyane actually has a land border with the Americas.
"They seek them here , they seek them there, those dammed Frenches are everywhere!!!" :smirk:

You would think France would be better off outside the EU, since much of it seems to be no where near Europe?
 

Massive Spanner

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The DUP have to be amongst the most idiotic, mental goons going, which makes the Tories even more idiotic for ever getting into bed with the feckers.
 

Buster15

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If I remember correctly when the point was raised, some talked about a new technology, a lack of will from the EU and that the EU would make a custom agreement on the UK's terms due to German car manufacturers, Italian Prosecco producers and french farmers.
Precisely. Just goes to show the breadth or lack of it of their knowledge of the countries of the EU.
Germany must mean cars. Despite the fact that they are manufacturers of a very wide range of excellent products.
Same for Italy, France and all the rest.
The lack of knowledge coupled with the lack of will to understand is legendary. And quite embarrassing to be honest. But that is not going to change any time soon...
 

Paul the Wolf

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Just more teething troubles. Is this the Brexit dividend they were talking about?

Brexit: 71 pages of paperwork for 1 lorry of fish

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55887043
The rules haven't changed since the referendum, as soon as the Uk voted to leave they should have started preparing , on the other hand if they had bothered to check what was involved prior to the referendum it is highly unlikely they would have voted for Brexit.

Not teething troubles, welcome to the real world.
 

Stanley Road

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The rules haven't changed since the referendum, as soon as the Uk voted to leave they should have started preparing , on the other hand if they had bothered to check what was involved prior to the referendum it is highly unlikely they would have voted for Brexit.

Not teething troubles, welcome to the real world.
How many pages required for goods from eu to uk?
 

Paul the Wolf

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How many pages required for goods from eu to uk?
Who knows, don't think they're ready yet, does anyone know what the UK regulations are, they haven't got the inspection facilities in place. The only thing I've seen is that they've asked overseas companies to register in the UK for VAT (!?) and bring a bond - don't think they know what they're doing . Imagine the uproar if the EU asked UK companies to do the same.
Otherwise I'm assuming they continue to follow EU regulations, for the time being.

The amount of documents to the EU depends on the products you are shipping and how many different consignees there are. I've no experience of transporting fish or animals or fresh food but say you've got 200 pallets each destined for 200 different customers on one truck, if you require 71 documents per consignee you may have to have 71x 200.

Of course each country (outside the EU) have different regulations although it is unlikely that a fresh fish exporter would export outside the EU as the stench of rotting fish would be overpowering by the time it reached Australia:smirk:

Ps I do have experience of exporting other products to Australia and their documentation requirements are much more severe than the EU.
 
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UweBein

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There's nothing whimsical about this. It's not unexpected by many in the industry and some would say it's par for the course. I have family connections with a trawler operating out of Plymouth and asked the skipper of one about this type of issue pre- the conclusion of the agreement. His view was that a difficult period was expected for a while once we left the EU but eventually, he thought sense would prevail because of supply and demand issues, which lost me a bit.

He said that various types of fish etc stock had wildly different levels which is why the fishing negotiations took so long. As I understand it, the EU countries now don't have access to decent shellfish sources, whereas we have better waters, thanks to the gulf stream. The Med is quite depleted and it's progressively pushed Europe's boats into our waters.

I don't know more than that but maybe there's a bit more willingness now to be less inflammatory about such matters. As I read it, a whelk that was acceptable to France a few weeks ago is not now, which is hard to work out.
Is that quote serious?
I mean different rules whether you are in and out of the EU. That's kind of the point of the EU. Common rules for everybody within.
Different rules for other countries. Great for the UK, since they can make their own rules, fair enough. That's what Boris signed up for for. Exactly for that.
 

Adisa

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Always laugh when people say "we were lied to".
No, you chose to believe the lie. You were looking for fairy tales.
 

horsechoker

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Always laugh when people say "we were lied to".
No, you chose to believe the lie. You were looking for fairy tales.
"we should have been told the truth"

Yeah, that's why they lied. Yet, people will still vote for these people at the next election.
 

Buster15

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RedSky

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"we should have been told the truth"

Yeah, that's why they lied. Yet, people will still vote for these people at the next election.
It's unlike a Tory to lie after all, right?

I'd say Brexit might open the eyes of the general public to the Tories but unfortunately they'll just keep voting for these charlatans time and time again.
 

horsechoker

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It's unlike a Tory to lie after all, right?

I'd say Brexit might open the eyes of the general public to the Tories but unfortunately they'll just keep voting for these charlatans time and time again.
They'll forget about it in 3 years time and vote Tory again because Keir Starmer doesn't like roast potatoes or something.
 

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