Bryan Mbeumo | Done

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Amad is not a wing back. He is not overall strong enough or have the physicality to play in such a demanding role. In terms of distance covered its the hardest position. He is also much more effective closer to the goal. THere are also games where Amorim will want a more defensive wing back.
 
Do most people here only use numbers when it suits them, or do they seriously don't understand how numbers work? You do not use stats in isolation.

Season 2024/25: Mbeumo (25 yo) had 20g + 7a with 12.3 xG and 8.3 xA - combined xG+A of 20.6 in 38 games which translates to ~0.542xGA/game.
Season 2023/24: Mbeumo (24 yo) had 9g + 7a with 9.8 xG and 4.6 xA - combined xG+A of 12.4 in 22(3) games which translates to ~0.496xGA/game
Season 2022/23: Mbeumo (23 yo) had 9g + 8a with 9.6 xG and 7.5 xA - combined xG+A of 17.1 in 36(2) games which translates to ~0.45xGA/game
Season 2021/22: Mbeumo (22 yo) had 4g + 7a with 9.3 xG and 3.7 xA - combined xG+A of 14.0 in 34(1) games which translate to ~0.412xGA/game

In total, Mbeumo had 42g + 28a with 41.0 xG and 24.1 xA in 130(6) games, which translates to ~0.479xGA/game. All of this playing for a team who finished 13th, 9th, 16th, and 10th in those PL seasons so not exactly the best team in the league.

From above stats, you can see very clearly that Mbeumo is improving season after season, and his actual xG and xG over his PL seasons have no signs of overperformance. You lot are just looking at one single stat and overreact, which is absolutely not the way stats should be used, especially in football. This is not accounting for his age, which is still young and he most definitely could continue to improve.

Agree with the general thrust of this argument, but it's worth noting that a lot of those goals/xG came from penalties, which he won't take here if Bruno is on the pitch. You'd be better off just looking at non-penalty stats.

Regardless, the key point with both Cunha and Mbeumo is that their overperformance is only a problem if you expect them to keep scoring like they did last season. Because they simply won't.

But if you're happy with a more realistic baseline of closer to 15-ish goal involvments each, along with the substantial improvements they might offer to the team in general play, then it's not a problem. It's just about not having outlandish expectations.

And unfortunately it's also true that while Mbeumo's rate of returns last season is extremely unlikely to be repeated with us, it could still impact Brentford's valuation of him. That's one of the downsides of buying players on the back off an outlier season of overperformance.
 
Get it done AP style

United - We'll take the player
Brentford - Are you going to make an offer?
United - Ah yes how much is he?
Brentford - he's on the market for £60 million
United - Would you take fiftyyyyyyyy...............niiiiiine?
 
And I hate that your abomination of posts are allowed to exist on the forum.

I rather talk about football, I am not a loser or a weirdo to constantly comment on other posters. So please, humble request, don't quote me from next time unless it's about United or football in general.

:lol:

Christ dude, go outside sometime.
 
He scored a maximum 9 goals in a season in the PL or the championship and then he had this season which is an outlier.

How many times did you advocate for this signing and this progressive arc before this 20 goals season and him being linked with us?

I didn't answer it because it is a stupid question: Who better than Ole? Who better than ETH? Who better than Mbeumo for 60m-70m? I am not a scout. I can only comment on a given player if I have seen them play and based on their contract situation etc. I don't have a dossier of all the players in world football.

To counter, you think Mbeumo is the best available player in world football for 60m-70m that meets our needs?
What would you say our needs are at this point? For me, it's clear we need players that have proven they can contribute offensively while playing in the PL. Cunha and Mbeumo are both on the ascendency, are a good age and want to join the club (despite the season we just had). Add someone like Gyokeres to the mix and our forward line is instantaneously transformed (Gyokeres feels more like a risk given the money involved and the league he's coming from). Mbeumo is a no-brainer for 50/60m
 
Amad is not a wing back. He is not overall strong enough or have the physicality to play in such a demanding role. In terms of distance covered its the hardest position. He is also much more effective closer to the goal. THere are also games where Amorim will want a more defensive wing back.
Hes had his best games starting at RWB. He and Mbuemo will interchange on the right and will defend like maniacs. Some games Amad will play the 10 also. Win win
 
Get him signed, send him to Turkey, make him the new poster boy of the club.
 
Amad is not a wing back. He is not overall strong enough or have the physicality to play in such a demanding role. In terms of distance covered its the hardest position. He is also much more effective closer to the goal. THere are also games where Amorim will want a more defensive wing back.
I think if we have two 6’s that can cover the ground it’ll allow the wingbacks to push further up, especially against teams with a low block.
 
Brentford citing the Cunha fee as a comparison. Forgetting that was a release clause. It’s not like we could’ve paid less.
 
Brentford citing the Cunha fee as a comparison. Forgetting that was a release clause. It’s not like we could’ve paid less.
Why not? It's not like Wolves are bound to the clause, they could always accept less if they wanted
 
The problem with this is, fans believe everything that is written in the media whilst the reality could be different.

I have seen on this forum fans crying over Mbuemo wage... when we haven't even signed him.
Exactly. It’s tedious and not worth discussing, most of the time. Perfect example is the thousands of posts this season about how United wouldn’t be able to afford to buy any players, this summer.
 
Hes had his best games starting at RWB. He and Mbuemo will interchange on the right and will defend like maniacs. Some games Amad will play the 10 also. Win win
I think that's HIGHLY arguable. And his best moments from RWB have usually come from dead ball situations like kickoffs (where he gets to reset his position out of play) or in the final 10-15 minutes of games when he's playing as an outright winger when we're chasing a goal. I personally think he has major issues consistently getting up and down the pitch in that role right now and I'm not sure he has the physical ceiling to improve too much on that side.

I can see Mbeumo on that side helping him. Mbeumo generally starts centrally and moves wide and provides a lot of good off the ball running, where as Amad likes to start wide and cut in and likes runners around him to give him options. But I don't think it's an absolute given the "total football where you can't tell who is playing which role" thing I have in my head would ever work
 
My gut feeling is that this transfer won’t happen. It only makes real sense to sign both of Cunha and Mbuemo if Bruno was to leave.
Judging by the timeline of the Mbuemo-links, the real momentum came when Bruno was looking very likely to leave, while as now the rumors are about high wage demands and an asking price from Brentford that is way above what we’re willing to pay. Could be that we’re now looking for an excuse to exit the talks..

Don’t get me wrong. Would love us to sign him. But with Cunha, Bruno, Amad, Mount (that we’re stuck with) and Zirkzee all looking to be here - the money could be better spent on our several other needs.

We bid for Mbeumo when Bruno had already said he wants to stay. High wage demand is coming from journos that are in the bag for Newcastle who wanted him and now are spinning it as them being out on him because the wages and price which only came after it was reported Mbeumo's first choice was United.
 
It is understandable for Brentford to ask for 70M for their best player to start a negotiation. We have opening bid of 55M. So essentially we are 15M apart which is very reasonable.

It will be done sensibly and not sure why is the moaning that we are over paying. It will be reasonable fees as the player clearly want to leave and made it clear we are the preference.
Yeah, the talk of Brentford viewing the Cunha fee as a reference would make sense with that 15m gap. 62.5m is slap bang in the middle so seems likely it gets done around there.
 
Agree with the general thrust of this argument, but it's worth noting that a lot of those goals/xG came from penalties, which he won't take here if Bruno is on the pitch. You'd be better off just looking at non-penalty stats.

Regardless, the key point with both Cunha and Mbeumo is that their overperformance is only a problem if you expect them to keep scoring like they did last season. Because they simply won't.

But if you're happy with a more realistic baseline of closer to 15-ish goal involvments each, along with the substantial improvements they might offer to the team in general play, then it's not a problem. It's just about not having outlandish expectations.

And unfortunately it's also true that while Mbeumo's rate of returns last season is extremely unlikely to be repeated with us, it could still impact Brentford's valuation of him. That's one of the downsides of buying players on the back off an outlier season of overperformance.

As someone who doesn't know much about the X stats, what would happen if Mbuemo came in this season and scored 25 goals? What would the following season (26/27) expectation be, that he is expected to carry on, or he has outperformed his xg for two years and he will drop off?
 
10 million difference won’t likely impact the other fish we have to fry greatly. This also impacts how we play hugely. Either it looks like we go for Mbeumo with Amad as wing back or Amad with Dalot as wingback. One is far more attacking and will make us incredibly dangerous. The other is the exact same as last season.

Mbeumo is a fantastic player and we will improve greatly with him in the side.

Agreed. But that still doesn't mean we 'can't afford to walk'. It's not Amad and Mbeumo or Amad and Dalot. If we didn't sign Mbeumo for this money we could certainly find a good wing-back for that amount.

The only position we will be absolutely forced to buy in, again, even if it means overpaying, again, is centre-forward. Because currently there it's Hojlund or Chido, and that's simply unacceptable for a Premier League club, let alone one trying to get back into the top 4.
 
Incorrect. As the tweet shows, he doesn’t have any feet. His legs end just above the knee. Probably had them stabbed off in London.
He's actually knee deep in London clunge in that picture.
 
Brentford citing the Cunha fee as a comparison. Forgetting that was a release clause. It’s not like we could’ve paid less.
I think their point is more along the lines of 'well if you're prepared to pay 62m for Cunha, we know you'll go higher for Mbeumo'
 
Get Mbuemo over the line and that’s two signings in the bag. Then once the transfer window reopens we can fully focus on outgoings to fund the rest of our business.
 
I don't understand some of you, guys.
So basically if a striker scores 20 league goals, it doesn't count, unless he's done it before?

You don't score 20 in a season in England by accident. The quality is there obviously. He is in his prime too, willing to take the next step.

No brainer of a transfer.
 
£55m + 5m in relatively easy add-ons should get the deal over the line, right?
It all depends on how it's structured. Noone has reported how the payments are stretched out. I'm assuming United would probably want to spread these payments out over three years minimum.
 
Get Mbuemo over the line and that’s two signings in the bag. Then once the transfer window reopens we can fully focus on outgoings to fund the rest of our business.
We can certainly talk between that gap, just can’t register
 
Why would they ever want to do that?

They wouldn't want to, but maybe they'd have needed to under different cicrumstances.

They pushed their financial reporting date back to 30th June because they're skint for PSR. If they had no takers close to 30th June at £62.5m as they were looking to sell him by then, they could well have been forced to reduce the price by 5-10m. I'm sure it's something that crossed United's minds but we probably didn't want to risk missing out on him to someone else willing to pay the release clause.

Then of course there's a different world where demand for him isn't high and he's crap. They'd take whatever then.
 
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As someone who doesn't know much about the X stats, what would happen if Mbuemo came in this season and scored 25 goals? What would the following season (26/27) expectation be, that he is expected to carry on, or he has outperformed his xg for two years and he will drop off?

It would depend on how/why he got those extra goals.

So did his underlying stats suddenly massively improve because he started getting way better chances? Did he have another season of even greater finishing overperformance? Did he take over penalties from Bruno and we just happened to get an unsually high number that season? Etc.

You'd draw different conclusion based on the circumstances, but the one you'd want to see is his his underlying stats spiking.

Regardless, it's extremely unlikely, to the point where I wouldn't be able to think of any precedent to compare it to.
 
That happens quite frequently, doesn't it? Every Spanish player has a release clause and they often move clubs for lower fees than their clause
And because every player in Spain has to have one, they usually get set prohibitively high. Cunha agreed a new contract with the clause in February, more than likely with a view to allowing a sale. It's less than we paid for Hojlund.

I also don't think Brentford are being outrageous in asking for more, but I also think we're in a decent position ourselves to not get taken to the cleaners.
 
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