Can we now safely say that our recruitment is much improved?

[bb8]

It's definitely true that players peak earlier than a lot of people think, as your second post highlights. Survivorship bias means people tend to underestimate how regularly players drop off in their late 20's into their 30's.

But there's a key difference between hitting your absolute peak in your mid-20's and being in what most people mean when they say a player is "in decline". Even if not at their absolute peak, a huge section of players sustain near-peak levels for years beyond that. To the point where many fans would have trouble identifying that peak without looking at the numbers.

For example, in terms of non-penalty goalscoring rate Harry Kane technically peaked when he was 23/24 years old. But absolutely nobody would say he's been "in decline" for the whole of the last 7+ years of his career. In fact many would subjectively say he's been better, even if his goalscoring metrics haven't hit that absolute peak again.

And while I think 26 is the upper end of the age range you should ideally be spending massive money on, even that comes with caveats.

The key context in the case of the Cunha/Mbeumo signings being the Rashford, Sancho, Antony and Garnacho departures in the same summer. That exodus of high wage, peak-age and (in Garnacho's case) regular gametime players isn't in any way normal, and distorts the profile of signings you can then afford to prioritise.

The rationale behind signing 26 year old Cunha & Mbeumo on big wages shifts when they're replacing Rashford & Sancho (average age 26) on substantially bigger wages, and providing the most concrete of upgrades in actually being able to play minutes for the club. Even more so when other attackers are also being sold. That degree of offset doesn't usually occur.

I agree with a lot of this. You're right that players don't (typically) massively drop off at 27, and I didn't mean to imply that.

Rashford in particular cost us less than Cunha/Mbeumo though. There's no transfer fee to amortize with Rashford; we only had to pay his wage. Whereas with Cunha/Mbeumo we've got £60M in transfer fee to amortize; that's £200k a week over the next 5 years on top of their actual wages. All told, they're probably costing us ~£400k a week or thereabouts, particularly when we're in UCL, whereas Rashford was costing 25% less than that.

 

[Raoul]

And look at how much Wirtz and Gyokeres are struggling in the EPL at the moment. I was the person who desperately wanted us to buy Gyokeres but maybe in hindsight it was a good idea to buy Sesko instead. Frimpong was one of the best fullbacks in Europe but he's now not even a regular starter for Liverpool.

Have you also counted how many goals and assists Isak and Cunha have contributed so far this year ? Spoiler alert, Gyokeres, who has been viewed as disappointing by many, has had more success than both combined.

Woltemade has even more than Gyokeres, and Ekitike has even more than Woltemade. Even Sesko, who has had a slow start and not played as many minutes as others, has more goals than good old "Premier League Proven" Ollie Watkins. So I would take all of this stuff with a giant pinch of salt. Players are first and foremost good because of their individual attributes, not because they happen to play in the most competitive league.

The term "Premier League Proven" is to me more of a risk mitigation device used mostly by the pundit class and fans when considering transfers. The clubs, by consistently buying a lot of foreign players each year, have more or less already told us that its simply not an overriding consideration of theirs.

 

[TrustInJanuzaj]

I agree with a lot of this. You're right that players don't (typically) massively drop off at 27, and I didn't mean to imply that.

Rashford in particular cost us less than Cunha/Mbeumo though. There's no transfer fee to amortize with Rashford; we only had to pay his wage. Whereas with Cunha/Mbeumo we've got £60M in transfer fee to amortize; that's £200k a week over the next 5 years on top of their actual wages. All told, they're probably costing us ~£400k a week or thereabouts, particularly when we're in UCL, whereas Rashford was costing 25% less than that.

The best way to make money is to win games. Rashford was a liability and nowhere near good enough on or off the pitch. The hope is that signing top class players like Cunha and Mbeumo moves the needle into winning more games and qualifying for bigger competitions. Time will tell on that but I’d rather run the risk rather than persisting with a player that isn’t good enough and does nothing to help the team environment.

 

[Tony247]

Lots of hope. Need a better and long term replacement of Bruno though.

 

[Adnan]

Well who was behind Onana? Him or someone else? INEOS at least greenlighted it and was the decision maker

Ten Hag wanted Onana.

And whether it was INEOS or the Glazers who Green-lit a transfer is irrelevant. Because for a recruitment structure to function at a high level you need very good recruiters throughout the club. And the recruiters are those people who are in-charge of identifying players to sign and it's not the DoF.

 

[KingEric04]

Have you also counted how many goals and assists Isak and Cunha have contributed so far this year ? Spoiler alert, Gyokeres, who has been viewed as disappointing by many, has had more success than both combined.

Woltemade has even more than Gyokeres, and Ekitike has even more than Woltemade. Even Sesko, who has had a slow start and not played as many minutes as others, has more goals than good old "Premier League Proven" Ollie Watkins. So I would take all of this stuff with a giant pinch of salt. Players are first and foremost good because of their individual attributes, not because they happen to play in the most competitive league.

The term "Premier League Proven" is to me more of a risk mitigation device used mostly by the pundit class and fans when considering transfers. The clubs, by consistently buying a lot of foreign players each year, have more or less already told us that its simply not an overriding consideration of theirs.

Cunha is much more than a G/A player. He was also injured and missed a couple of games. From what I've seen the majority of Utd fans have been satisfied with Cunha's performances (including me), and the goals will eventually come. Gyokeres looks very clumsy with the ball and has nothing to offer besides the goal scoring.

Isak didn't even had a proper pre-season and only started to be slowly integrated into Liverpool squad. We've been buying a lot of "foreign" players from other leagues for the absurd amount of money and the majority of them have been flops. This season under INEOS we've changed our strategy and tried to buy a couple of EPL proven players in their mid 20s instead of splashing absurd amount money on "foreign" players from other leagues.

 

[Pughnichi]

The best way to make money is to win games. Rashford was a liability and nowhere near good enough on or off the pitch. The hope is that signing top class players like Cunha and Mbeumo moves the needle into winning more games and qualifying for bigger competitions. Time will tell on that but I’d rather run the risk rather than persisting with a player that isn’t good enough and does nothing to help the team environment.

Amen

I’d have 11 Bryan Mbuemos with correct attitude and application over 11 academy graduates that appear to think themselves untouchable

 

[Pughnichi]

Cunha is much more than a G/A player. He was also injured and missed a couple of games. From what I've seen the majority of Utd fans have been satisfied with Cunha's performances (including me), and the goals will eventually come. Gyokeres looks very clumsy with the ball and has nothing to offer besides the goal scoring.

Isak didn't even had a proper pre-season and only started to be slowly integrated into Liverpool squad. We've been buying a lot of "foreign" players from other leagues for the absurd amount of money and the majority of them have been flops. This season under INEOS we've changed our strategy and tried to buy a couple of EPL proven players in their mid 20s instead of splashing absurd amount money on "foreign" players from other leagues.

Spot on

But I fear you’re responding to revisionism at its finest

 

[Posh Red]

Agreed, good post.

The signings haven't been centred around a play style hence we still look to transition quickly and bypass the midfield in fear of losing the ball in deeper areas.

I think their signings thus far have been a mixed bag. And I don't include de Ligt, Mazraoui and Lammens as INEOS signings because these players were brought in by ten Hag and Tony Coton who is the goalkeeping scout and has been credited with identifying Lammens. Coton has been at the club for several years.

But surely the hierarchy could have just ignored the scout and went for the older, more expensive Martinez? Wasn’t this the exact issue when it came to previous occasions where scouts were ignored? The board should be applauded for listening to the expert in the room, and taking a chance on a younger, less proven talent.

 

[LDUred]

They´ve definitely improved us on the physical side. Cunha and Mbeumo are technical but they are also very strong. Contrast that with players like Antony who could not compete shoulder to shoulder or aerially.

There´s definitely been a trend towards signing players who can handle themselves in duels. It needed to be addressed and thankfully it has been.

We just need to shore up that midfield because we´re still losing out there too often.

 

[Cutch]

Who's that other than Kone? Or do you mean the two lads from Arsenal?

Christian Orozco, Samuel Lusale, Harley Emsden James and Enzo Kaka Biyik. Not that sure what any of them are like in truth but they seemed promising from what I've read

 

[Solskjaer87]

Interesting discussion about the peak age of average players, it is younger then I were expecting. I want to add that this is average from many different leauges, the top% perform better and I would expect the average to be lower because at 25 many players already had injuries slowing them down. Even if 26 is average peak year it is to easy to say they decline around that age, the elite professionals that take care of their body, more so then average championship players should be able to stay peak age for longer. almost all great strikers the last 15 years (including Messi and Ronaldo here) got better after this age.

For the topic I think its to early to say, but early signs are good for once. I really like Mbuemo alot so far and I think that Dorgu gets way to much hate. I really like that we got physical strong players all over in attack and defense and hope we can improve that aspect in middle-field next summer. Im not sold on Diallo as RWB yet, but hope he can be a gem there when he gets more experience

 

[Adnan]

But surely the hierarchy could have just ignored the scout and went for the older, more expensive Martinez? Wasn’t this the exact issue when it came to previous occasions where scouts were ignored? The board should be applauded for listening to the expert in the room, and taking a chance on a younger, less proven talent.

I'm not sure they would've been ignoring the goalkeeping scout by going for the younger keeper. Because for all we know, the goalkeeping scout would've given the go-ahead to sign Martinez as well. And then it's upto the DoF to decide if they want to go with the younger option or the one that has experience at a high level for the hear and now. And from what we know from reports, the hierarchy prioritised Martinez early in the window and then again near the end of the window before settling on the younger and cheaper option from Belgium.

But as far as who INEOS have brought in as far as recruitment is concerned at the club is only one person (Vivell). Wilcox has never been a talent spotter and the one time he's been credited with pushing for a player (Ugarte), he's made a right mess of it. And that's something many fans don't even understand because the recruitment isn't being on judged on developing a proactive playstyle but rather on plugging gaps in the team.

 

[Duffman2]

Ten Hag wanted Onana.

And whether it was INEOS or the Glazers who Green-lit a transfer is irrelevant. Because for a recruitment structure to function at a high level you need very good recruiters throughout the club. And the recruiters are those people who are in-charge of identifying players to sign and it's not the DoF.

That supports my argument. Working with decision making within organisations, this is a critical part. Who signs off and who recommends. Historically, the CEO would sign off on the request of the Manager. Our 'recruitment' specialists / scouts would likely need to convince the manager for a 1st team recruitment to go through.

Now our recuritment specialists recommended Lammens to our DOF/recruitment team and didnt need the managers approval who rather went with Martinez.

Previously, our recruitment specialists recommended Caicedo, but we could not pull it off because senior buy-in was lacking.

 

[Raoul]

Recruitment has definitely improved, although I'm concerned we may be turning into a right-sided team because we are far stronger there than on the left. Most opposition would find it much more difficult to deal with Amad and Mbeumo than with Dorgu and Cunha. Therefore I suspect Amorim will seek to level up at LWB this summer by way of someone like Nuno Mendes or another player of comparable skill and big game experience. Until then, we are likely to become a bit predictable because everyone will know most of our buildups will come from Amad and Mbeumo.

 

[Urescoredatanfield]

It would appear that the new additions have begun quite well thus far. To be honest the fresh blood had to show progress....as the alternatives would have been interesting, to say the least, possible Armageddon. But, please let's not have an excessive focus on a decent result at Anfield, and assume all's well at United, yes it is far better than what we have been witness to. We must now raise the consistency levels and show/prove our new recruits have what it takes to be a Man Utd. player, at least they appear to have a genuine team spirit, unlike the venomous stench of previous dressing room cliques, we were frequently reminded. Hopefully, onwards and upwards.

 

[IrwinwasbetterthanCarlos]

Not sure if I would go so far as to call it a super league, but I would agree that the level of skill and intensity is definitely higher. But I would be careful about conflating the idea that a league is more difficult to excel in with the individual characteristics each player much have in order to thrive in it. This is likely why clubs continue buying a lot of players from abroad - because they've done their due diligence in scouting and assessing the specific skillsets of each player they need to fill specific roles at their clubs.

The point is more that these days, every signing from abroad is a risk, and they may need 6-12 months to acclimatise, if they ever do.

For us, we absolutely had to get in some hit-the-ground-running certainties like Cunha and Mbeumo.

 

[Raoul]

The point is more that these days, every signing from abroad is a risk, and they may need 6-12 months to acclimatise, if they ever do.

For us, we absolutely had to get in some hit-the-ground-running certainties like Cunha and Mbeumo.

That's not true though. There have been loads of foreign players who arrive and play very well almost immediately. Just this year Ekitike and Woltemade have hit the ground running at a high level. Over the preceding decade or two, we've seen everyone from Torres to Chicharito to Suarez to Hazard to Drogba to Diego Costa and a slew of others who simply arrived and played very well. Even De Bruyne, Lukaku, and Salah who had uneventful early stints at Chelsea didn't come good until they went abroad before coming back to the Prem. For us Bruno, Cavani, and Zlatan are examples over the preceding decade.

 

[USREDEVIL]

No question. Always going to have a few that dont cut it like Ugarte but Mbuemo and Cunha are ballers. Lammens looks really good so far.

 

[pascell]

Recruitment has definitely improved, although I'm concerned we may be turning into a right-sided team because we are far stronger there than on the left. Most opposition would find it much more difficult to deal with Amad and Mbeumo than with Dorgu and Cunha. Therefore I suspect Amorim will seek to level up at LWB this summer by way of someone like Nuno Mendes or another player of comparable skill and big game experience. Until then, we are likely to become a bit predictable because everyone will know most of our buildups will come from Amad and Mbeumo.

I think the issue with our left hand side is that Cunha and Mount have been injured/missed games this season, along with Dorgu being our only natural LWB, the left side has suffered for consistency.

I think we'll buy another LWB in summer to help stabilise that side of the pitch.

 

[Raoul]

I think the issue with our left hand side is that Cunha and Mount have been injured/missed games this season, along with Dorgu being our only natural LWB, the left side has suffered for consistency.

I think we'll buy another LWB in summer to help stabilise that side of the pitch.

True. My primary issue on the left obviously isn't related to those two specifically, but the noticable disparity in skill sets between Dorgu and Amad. That simply makes us far more effective on the right, which will eventually become predictable to opponents. I like Dorgu's potential, but he's simply not reliable enough to do a job on the left yet, which shouldn't really come as a big surprise given his age - he's simply a young player in need of further development. We need a player like Nuno Mendes (or similar) in the coming summer window to bridge the disparity.

 

[IrwinwasbetterthanCarlos]

That's not true though. There have been loads of foreign players who arrive and play very well almost immediately. Just this year Ekitike and Woltemade have hit the ground running at a high level. Over the preceding decade or two, we've seen everyone from Torres to Chicharito to Suarez to Hazard to Drogba to Diego Costa and a slew of others who simply arrived and played very well. Even De Bruyne, Lukaku, and Salah who had uneventful early stints at Chelsea didn't come good until they went abroad before coming back to the Prem. For us Bruno, Cavani, and Zlatan are examples over the preceding decade.

You seem to have ignored my use of the word “may”…

 

[Adnan]

That supports my argument. Working with decision making within organisations, this is a critical part. Who signs off and who recommends. Historically, the CEO would sign off on the request of the Manager. Our 'recruitment' specialists / scouts would likely need to convince the manager for a 1st team recruitment to go through.

Now our recuritment specialists recommended Lammens to our DOF/recruitment team and didnt need the managers approval who rather went with Martinez.

Previously, our recruitment specialists recommended Caicedo, but we could not pull it off because senior buy-in was lacking.

It's absolutely normal to have a streamlined operation when it comes to recruiting players for the first team. And our most successful period as a club under Fergie was the same where the recruitment team had to convince him. Everything was aligned and they were all working in tandem for a common goal, which was success on the pitch. The only issue we've had post Fergie is that the alignment went out of the window and there was a disconnect between the recruitment team and the manager.

Hence Mourinho relied on his own scouts and Solskjaer was also relying on his personal scout with Mike Phelan also a influential figure when it came to recruiting for players per reports. I've always said the recruitment team isn't the problem but rather it was the disconnect that occurred between the scouts and the managers due to the managers favouring the option of their own scouts over the club's scouting team. The problem that then creates is that you don't make best use of the huge resources you have at your disposal and cannot develop the team to it's full potential. Woodward's tenure could've been different if the manager he hired understood that he had to work with the club's existing recruitment department and further develop it. Klopp did that at Liverpool and provided the Liverpool football structure with a idea on what to look for when recruiting for his attacking playstyle. And to this day, they keep buying the same profile of CBs and Arsenal are doing the same.

It was reported that Amorim wanted a more experienced and ready made keeper and did favour Martinez due to those reasons. And the reports aslo mentioned that the club prioritized Martinez and tried to sign him early in the transfer window. They then tried again to sign him near the end of the window before settling for the cheaper option from Belgium. They could've signed Lammens before the start of preseason if they prioritized him.

Tbh mate, we actually did attempt to sign Caicedo per several reports. And the issue wasn't that their wasn't buy-in from the hierarchy but rather the deal was a little complexed due to the player's ownership which was said to be shared and that gave Brighton the upperhand due to their previous dealings with the same agent.

Manchester United should always strive to play proactive attacking football imo. And if you look at all the top clubs who do play proactive attacking football with and without the ball. Then one thing sticks out straight away and that is that those teams have the ability play out from the back (as well as go direct), implement a high line to squeeze the pitch, which then allows a high volume of players to commit into the opponent's half. That then gives the front line extra passing options due to the high volume of players that are committed into the opponent's half and provides a strong foundation to defend from the front via a well coordinated high pressing structure. How Wilcox didn't even understand this is quite shockingly bad imo. And with the money they've spent, we should be a much better team as far as playing that type of football but they've completely neglected the midfield which is a fundamental part of a team's attack if you want to commit a high volume of players into the opponent's half. We're still a counter attacking team and every manager from LVG up until now has won games against the top teams. We thrive as the underdog in these games.

 

[Red in STL]

Well who was behind Onana? Him or someone else? INEOS at least greenlighted it and was the decision maker

You do realize that Onana signed for United in 2023 and INEOS took charge in 2024

 

[Bo_devil]

Recruitment has improved. We could do with a couple of 'crazy guys' in midfield now, Amorim keeps talking about United need a few crazy guys in the team. Cunha has that type of mentality he's talking about, real gritty, brave, determined, can be a bit of a loose cannon at times. The coach identified we needed more physicality, Mbueno and Cunha have that in abundance.

 

[Red in STL]

True. My primary issue on the left obviously isn't related to those two specifically, but the noticable disparity in skill sets between Dorgu and Amad. That simply makes us far more effective on the right, which will eventually become predictable to opponents. I like Dorgu's potential, but he's simply not reliable enough to do a job on the left yet, which shouldn't really come as a big surprise given his age - he's simply a young player in need of further development. We need a player like Nuno Mendes (or similar) in the coming summer window to bridge the disparity.

I guess you're writing off 2 of Amass, Dorgu and Leon, because signing Nuno Mendes (or similar) means 2 of those will be redundant

 

[Raoul]

I guess you're writing off 2 of Amass, Dorgu and Leon, because signing Nuno Mendes (or similar) means 2 of those will be redundant

Yes, that much is obvious

 

[Bebe]

Don't we?

Value was playing a bit of a role in my mind making that list. I think he was bought mostly as a backup, has been a backup, and I expect we'll end up selling him for around the same amount we bought him for. For those reasons I thought calling him a definite miss was overkill - I doubt we could sell Ugarte for half what we bought him for as a point of comparison.

That said, I don't really have an issue calling him a miss. He's almost certainly never going to be starter material at United.

 

[cpresc]

Christian Orozco, Samuel Lusale, Harley Emsden James and Enzo Kaka Biyik. Not that sure what any of them are like in truth but they seemed promising from what I've read

Cool, thanks

 

[sullydnl]

Another thing to consider are the transfer we know we didn't make.

For example, the decision not to pay what it would have required to sign Branthwaite from Everton. Or indeed the decsion not to pursue Baleba at the sort of prices it would have cost to sign him this summer.

Or the decision not to opt for the likes of a 29 year old Ollie Watkins for big money. Who, despite supposedly being a PL proven guaranteed source of goals who would hit the ground running and definitely has several years left at this level, has immediately dropped off this season.

See also not making the overrated Emi Martinez one of the most expensive goalkeepers of all time.

Avoiding disastrous signings is vital, and we've dodged a few that we might not otherwise. Often by undertstanding that even for seemingly good players, there's a price point where they aren't worth the risk.

 

[justsomebloke]

Cunha is much more than a G/A player. He was also injured and missed a couple of games. From what I've seen the majority of Utd fans have been satisfied with Cunha's performances (including me), and the goals will eventually come. Gyokeres looks very clumsy with the ball and has nothing to offer besides the goal scoring.

Isak didn't even had a proper pre-season and only started to be slowly integrated into Liverpool squad. We've been buying a lot of "foreign" players from other leagues for the absurd amount of money and the majority of them have been flops. This season under INEOS we've changed our strategy and tried to buy a couple of EPL proven players in their mid 20s instead of splashing absurd amount money on "foreign" players from other leagues.

Don't think you have a case here that really stands up. At most there may be a little less risk with EPL-proven players, but then again you're also mostly paying a hefty premium for that. Not to mention that all of those PL-proven players you like were at some point non-PL-proven, but were still good buys. Competent recruitment finds good players wherever they are, and aren't based on such crude generalisations.

 

[justsomebloke]

I guess you're writing off 2 of Amass, Dorgu and Leon, because signing Nuno Mendes (or similar) means 2 of those will be redundant

The alternative is to suck at LWB until one of those become a first rate PL player. That's gonna be a while. We clearly need a credible regular starter LWB, in my view.

 

[IrwinwasbetterthanCarlos]

Don't think you have a case here that really stands up. At most there may be a little less risk with EPL-proven players, but then again you're also mostly paying a hefty premium for that. Not to mention that all of those PL-proven players you like were at some point non-PL-proven, but were still good buys. Competent recruitment finds good players wherever they are, and aren't based on such crude generalisations.

Yes, but EPL proven means you know they can handle the physicality of the league. The biggest mistake of the ten Hag era, and there’s a LOT of them, was that we signed a load of players that were small, slow, weak or all three. The physical levels of our team were appalling and the main reason we’d get steamrollered by the Bournemouths and Brightons of this world. We couldn’t risk someone like a Wirtz that might not, or take a while to, cut it. We needed sure things.

If you want a good comparison for physicality, watch West Ham at the moment. They really remind me of us in 23/24; no pace and power.

 

[Marwood]

We've seen before one good summer window can be ruined if the next one is no good.

So United desperately need to put two successive summer windows together to get back competing.

Which means this summer going for Prem proven, in or close to prime years CM's. No messing about with projects.

Do that and summer '27 would be the time to try and find a hidden gem here or there.

Then I'll believe the club has truly turned around its recruitment.

 

[Bobski]

2 years ago we were often starting an attacking 3 of Rashford, Hojlund and Garnacho.

Each of those guys have their qualities but as a trio they were an awful fit for each other, 3 head down, tunnel vision players who are all far better running into space behind and possessed little ability to link with each other and sustain attacks. The failure of guys like Sancho and Antony was really felt there.

Mbeumo and Cunha bring PL physicality but they also, just as importantly have rounded skill sets were they can take the ball with back to goal under pressure and find a pass, run with the ball and create for themselves and others. Sesko looking a handful adds to that.

 

[nickm]

Nah, it doesn't. It tends to stay about 25-26 for attackers, and a year or two later for defenders. See all the research I quoted above.

I'm not worried about those two. We bought them at their peak because we need guaranteed impact. They will have resale value, Sesko is only 22 though. Mount is 26. I expect one of the new midfielders will be on the younger side, and if so, I think we'll have that mix about right. Clearly the age profile of the squad is changing.

I'll point out that far too many people here thought the 31 year old Bruno should have been one of the 10s.

 

[utdalltheway]

Our squad is ok, not great. Tbh I doubt we'll win much with them but sometimes you just need some luck.

 

[Woodzy]

Tell you what, fully on board with signing the best players in the league in future.

Mbuemo and Cunha are both sensational signings.

 

[Bobski]

The front 3 win duels constantly because they have the physicality and aggression in their press to make it work. This bleeds into general play forcing defenders to back off and be more hesitant in the challenges they make. Compare that to Hojlund who got man handled by pretty much every CB he played against domestically, they dominated him with such ease that it created confidence and stability in defensive line ups.

This trio are a battle to contain and they back it up with quality.

 

[TheNewEra]

Has been under INEOS imo.

Good hit rate.