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DOTA

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I don't know much about it but I'm reasonably interested and if anyone else is, then it will stop me posting about it in the blackface thread...

According to some website that was the first google hit...

CON 34.7%
LIB 34.1%
NDP 13.5%
GRN 9.6%
BQ 4.4%
PPC 2.8%
36%
Probability of the Liberals winning a majority

27%
Probability of the Liberals winning the most seats but not a majority

25%
Probability of the Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority

12%
Probability of the Conservatives winning a majority
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

I'm guessing BQ are a Quebec party. No idea what PPC are.
 

AshRK

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I don't know much about it but I'm reasonably interested and if anyone else is, then it will stop me posting about it in the blackface thread...

According to some website that was the first google hit...





https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

I'm guessing BQ are a Quebec party. No idea what PPC are.
People's party of canada led by Max Bernier. They recently were criticized for putting a sign all across canada which said "Say no to Mass Immigration"
 

FlawlessThaw

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But most of them would be voting for Singh anyway.
Not sure I can really comment as I know absolutely nothing about Singh, his support, his party or their policies.

But given the vast amount of support is split between the Liberals and the Conservatives and it's a tight election. The blackface saga will have an impact as I'm sure there were tonnes on the fence about Trudeau who might just vote for Scheer if they don't think Trudeau is any better.
 

DOTA

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People's party of canada led by Max Bernier. They recently were criticized for putting a sign all across canada which said "Say no to Mass Immigration"
Just had a google. So our man here narrowly lost his bid for the leadership of the Conservative Party and then set up his own more racist version?
 

AshRK

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Just had a google. So our man here narrowly lost his bid for the leadership of the Conservative Party and then set up his own more racist version?
You got it. Although people initially spoke highly of Bernier but this ban mass immigration saga backfired big time.
 

Dwazza Gunnar Solskjær

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I don't know much about it but I'm reasonably interested and if anyone else is, then it will stop me posting about it in the blackface thread...

According to some website that was the first google hit...





https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

I'm guessing BQ are a Quebec party. No idea what PPC are.
Yeah, BQ are the Bloc Quebecois a Quebec separatist party. They only run candidates in Quebec.

Bernier is a lunatic. Which is a shame because initially it seemed like he had some good ideas. Than the PPC went all crazy racist.

I will probably be voting Marxist-Leninist as they usually field a candidate in my riding.
 

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People's party of canada led by Max Bernier. They recently were criticized for putting a sign all across canada which said "Say no to Mass Immigration"
In A country of only 152 years of history :lol::lol::lol:
 

Dwazza Gunnar Solskjær

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Not sure I can really comment as I know absolutely nothing about Singh, his support, his party or their policies.

But given the vast amount of support is split between the Liberals and the Conservatives and it's a tight election. The blackface saga will have an impact as I'm sure there were tonnes on the fence about Trudeau who might just vote for Scheer if they don't think Trudeau is any better.
Jagmeet has tanked the NDP, who ride a pretty big wave of support off the back of a guy who died about seven years ago.

The problem is that the NDP are the most socialist of the major parties and Jagmeet is from a very wealthy family. He also has has a penchant for $5000 suits, which doesn't really sit well with the low income types whose interests he's meant to represent.
 

DOTA

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Jagmeet has tanked the NDP, who ride a pretty big wave of support off the back of a guy who died about seven years ago.

The problem is that the NDP are the most socialist of the major parties and Jagmeet is from a very wealthy family. He also has has a penchant for $5000 suits, which doesn't really sit well with the low income types whose interests he's meant to represent.
I do find the suits weird, I can't deny.
 

DOTA

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Any thoughts on the Greens? My sources suggest they are less weird than American greens but nowhere near as credible as the average European greens.
 

utdalltheway

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trudeau in hot water?

I see Morneau didn't realize he might have owed $41,000 + for 2 family trips with that WE charity group?
$41,000 is hardly a rounding error, well if you're Bezos or Gates, which he's not. And he's the Finance minister.
Stinks of corruption.
 

Dwazza Gunnar Solskjær

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trudeau in hot water?

I see Morneau didn't realize he might have owed $41,000 + for 2 family trips with that WE charity group?
$41,000 is hardly a rounding error, well if you're Bezos or Gates, which he's not. And he's the Finance minister.
Stinks of corruption.
A billion dollars worth of corruption! But don't worry, they're sorry. Just like they were sorry about blackface and interfering with the rule of law over SNC Lavelin.

Although in fairness to your comment, the finance minister is Panama Papers rich and his wife's family are billionaires. Still, it's very convenient that he remembered he owed the WE charity money for free trips to Africa the day before he was supposed to be questioned over it. Also, both his daughters have cushy jobs with WE.
 

utdalltheway

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Yeah. Morneau played that terribly. They have their snouts deep in that trough.
Reminds me of that old expression: pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered.
I’d be surprised if this didn’t bring them both down.
 

Dwazza Gunnar Solskjær

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Yeah. Morneau played that terribly. They have their snouts deep in that trough.
Reminds me of that old expression: pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered.
I’d be surprised if this didn’t bring them both down.
You'd hope so, but I doubt it. Of the three major opposition parties, the one best placed to topple the Liberals is without a leader for another few weeks, another has no money to fight an election and the Bloc Quebecois are happy with what they've got at the moment.

I said it years ago when it came very close to occurring but the best thing that could ever happen to Canada would be for the Liberal Party to end up in the dustbin of history.
 

Klopper76

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You'd hope so, but I doubt it. Of the three major opposition parties, the one best placed to topple the Liberals is without a leader for another few weeks, another has no money to fight an election and the Bloc Quebecois are happy with what they've got at the moment.

I said it years ago when it came very close to occurring but the best thing that could ever happen to Canada would be for the Liberal Party to end up in the dustbin of history.
For the NDP to take their place as the left wing party on offer?
 

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Yeah, the Libs are useless. They talk progressive under Trudeau now, but there's almost no actual action on that front and otherwise it's the same neoliberal economic approach as always. They'll easily stay in power though. The Cons have only poor candidates and are way too focused on The Prairies to improve their standing in the Maritimes and Quebec (and probably also Ontario), and Singh isn't a unifying force that can propel the NDP forward. They won't want to tank the government either, as the Libs are too popular due to COVID-19. (Not that they've handled that particularly well, but every reasonable government all across Europe and Canada is up in the polls. Even Doug Ford suddenly looks the part!)

I wonder what's Trudeau's expiration date. This is his third serious political scandal now (also his vacation and the SNC/Lavalin affair); you'd think it's too much at some point. Beyond that, he is also achieving very little. He can't be that popular with voters anymore. I'd kinda hope the Libs ditch both him and Morneau (also becoming untenable) and promote Freeland to PM, who would probably be excellent; but I don't see it happening. At least the Libs now can't cash in on their COVID-19 popularity and call a snap election to regain a majority.
 

utdalltheway

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So Morneau is gone, but he’s going to get Trudeaus recommendation for the OECD job which would surely be a nice little earner and plenty of benefits.
Hardly a punishment.
 

Dwazza Gunnar Solskjær

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So Morneau is gone, but he’s going to get Trudeaus recommendation for the OECD job which would surely be a nice little earner and plenty of benefits.
Hardly a punishment.
Amazing how such obviously corrupt people just keep moving up the corruption ladder. If there wasn't an argument against globalism before there should be now. This cabal of scumbags is robbing us blind.
 

Cheimoon

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Amazing how such obviously corrupt people just keep moving up the corruption ladder. If there wasn't an argument against globalism before there should be now. This cabal of scumbags is robbing us blind.
It's all smokes and mirrors. Is Morneau really leaving because he doesn't support the ballooning deficit and green recovery (first time I heard green recovery is on the agenda; finally something I like!), or is this an indirect way of admitting he was wrong on WE? Or did he lose standing in cabinet because of WE, and that caused the rift? And so on. But the liberals will feel they've washed themselves clean of everything by getting rid of Morneau, and so it goes on.
 

Dwazza Gunnar Solskjær

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It's all smokes and mirrors. Is Morneau really leaving because he doesn't support the ballooning deficit and green recovery (first time I heard green recovery is on the agenda; finally something I like!), or is this an indirect way of admitting he was wrong on WE? Or did he lose standing in cabinet because of WE, and that caused the rift? And so on. But the liberals will feel they've washed themselves clean of everything by getting rid of Morneau, and so it goes on.
The last part is the only relevant piece for the Liberal party. Look we forced the bad guy out (ignoring that he's had as many parliamentary ethics violations as dear leader). Trudeau must resign, too.
 

Cheimoon

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The last part is the only relevant piece for the Liberal party. Look we forced the bad guy out (ignoring that he's had as many parliamentary ethics violations as dear leader). Trudeau must resign, too.
I'd love to see that, but as long as Trudeau enjoys general popularity in the Liberal electorate, it's not gonna happen. Morneau was nicely expendable (I don't think anybody particularly cares about him politically), so I guess this is the bone we've been thrown...
 

Dwazza Gunnar Solskjær

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I'd love to see that, but as long as Trudeau enjoys general popularity in the Liberal electorate, it's not gonna happen. Morneau was nicely expendable (I don't think anybody particularly cares about him politically), so I guess this is the bone we've been thrown...
It's utterly remarkable, isn't it?

Now he's going to prorogue parliament. When Harper did it, Liberals were screaming from the rooftops that it was the end of democracy in Canada. We'll not hear a peep from them now.
 

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It's utterly remarkable, isn't it?

Now he's going to prorogue parliament. When Harper did it, Liberals were screaming from the rooftops that it was the end of democracy in Canada. We'll not hear a peep from them now.
Well, it's not exactly the same situation. Harper once prorogued parliament because his minority government was on the verge of being replaced by a coalition government from the other parties, and afterwards he seemed to use proroguing pretty liberally (haha). The Liberals have more reason now, as parliament moves slowly because of COVID-19 anyway and the Conservatives don't have a new leader yet. But yeah, I agree that it's unnecessary. Totally removes accountability without any real need. In general, the Liberals have anyway completely forgotten about all the complaining they did about Conservative parliamentary tactics: they still do omnibus bills, try to ram stuff through committees and parliament, etc. (Although I do like Trudeau's attempts to make the Senate less partisan - although it won't be a lasting measure this way.)
 

Dwazza Gunnar Solskjær

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Well, it's not exactly the same situation. Harper once prorogued parliament because his minority government was on the verge of being replaced by a coalition government from the other parties, and afterwards he seemed to use proroguing pretty liberally (haha). The Liberals have more reason now, as parliament moves slowly because of COVID-19 anyway and the Conservatives don't have a new leader yet. But yeah, I agree that it's unnecessary. Totally removes accountability without any real need. In general, the Liberals have anyway completely forgotten about all the complaining they did about Conservative parliamentary tactics: they still do omnibus bills, try to ram stuff through committees and parliament, etc. (Although I do like Trudeau's attempts to make the Senate less partisan - although it won't be a lasting measure this way.)
Let's be honest, the only reason he's doing it is to slink out of the limelight and hope that people forget how deeply involved he was in the WE scandal. He's sorry, that's all that matters.
 

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Let's be honest, the only reason he's doing it is to slink out of the limelight and hope that people forget how deeply involved he was in the WE scandal. He's sorry, that's all that matters.
Well, obviously, there is never(?) a proper reason to just cancel parliament for a while.

Pretty insane that proroguing exists actually, and can be done so easily. (Technically, you need the GG's approval; but not approving would the kind of political act a GG isn't supposed to commit.)
 

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I was thinking about this again after all the US bashing in the Trump and 2020 elections thread. (Time to talk Canada again. :wenger: ) I think the Libs may have set this up pretty nicely for themselves.

The NDP and the Bloc won't want new elections. The Bloc can't grow much anymore and the NDP is apparently out of money and anyway unlikely to get a majority. So for both of them, a minority Libs government with the Cons stuck pretty far on the right is right now their best chance of having any influence on federal decision-making.

Even the Cons might not want new elections soon, as the Libs enjoy the COVID-19 popularity bonus (that any government outside the US and Brasil seems to have gotten), and the Cons just chose a new leader that's pretty unknown and won't have a chance to display himself now that parliament has been prorogued.

So I expect the Speech from the Throne to be basically a Liberal campaign platform: full of their own ideas and little attempt at compromise. Then the others get to choose: vote it down and get elections that likely no-one except possibly the Libs will gain from, or support the Speech and be morally bound to find a way to support what's basically a Liberal platform.

What do you guys think? (To be clear: I'm not claiming 4D chess for the Libs, but I think they saw the opportunity and went for it. Morneau's dismissal.probably fits that: a sacrifice to get the WE scandal out of the way (at least a little).)
 

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So, another vote of confidence survived. At this point, I have no idea anymore what the Liberals really want; but the NDP doesn't seem to want elections. Anyone wanna guess how long until we can actually go and vote?

Speaking of which, curious which way BC (today) and Saskatchewan are going in their elections.

Also: @Wibble, could you maybe change the thread title to Canadian Politics, similar to the Aus/NZ thread?
 
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Klopper76

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So, another vote of confidence survived. At this point, I have no idea anymore what the Liberals really want; but the NDP doesn't seem to want elections. Anyone wanna guess how long until we can actually go and vote?

Speaking of which, curious which was BC (today) and Saskatchewan are going in their elections.

Also: @Wibble, could you maybe change the thread title to Canadian Politics, similar to the Aus/NZ thread?
The NDP are expected to gain a majority here in BC.
 

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So, another vote of confidence survived. At this point, I have no idea anymore what the Liberals really want; but the NDP doesn't seem to want elections. Anyone wanna guess how long until we can actually go and vote?

Speaking of which, curious which was BC (today) and Saskatchewan are going in their elections.

Also: @Wibble, could you maybe change the thread title to Canadian Politics, similar to the Aus/NZ thread?
Good idea. Done.
 

Foxbatt

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The Liberals wanted an election that is forced by the conservatives. The NDP would lose a lot more if they have an election right now so they forced the Liberals to stop having an election right now. I think this was a confidence motion the Liberals wanted to lose. Erin O Toole is not going to win. Certainly he needs to take Atlantic Canada from Liberals and he is not going to take it. Peter Mackay may have been the best choice for the conservatives but he is not conservative enough for a lot of conservatives.
 

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Good idea. Done.
Thanks!
The NDP are expected to gain a majority here in BC.
I see they are projected to have won 55 out of 87 ridings. Happy to see BC remain on the left. (Your Liberals are really PCs, right?)
The Liberals wanted an election that is forced by the conservatives. The NDP would lose a lot more if they have an election right now so they forced the Liberals to stop having an election right now. I think this was a confidence motion the Liberals wanted to lose. Erin O Toole is not going to win. Certainly he needs to take Atlantic Canada from Liberals and he is not going to take it. Peter Mackay may have been the best choice for the conservatives but he is not conservative enough for a lot of conservatives.
Yeah, that was my thinking earlier; see my post a bit above. I think the timing is great for the Liberals: the NDP are apparently out of money (so no funds to campaign), the Conservatives are as of yet unsettled under their new leadership and O'Toole is an unknown, and Trudeau has the COVID-19 bonus most leaders got. All that will disappear the more time goes on (the COVID-19 bonus the quickest; it's not going well for Ford and Legault anymore). I don't get why the Bloc seems to want elections though. A minority Libs government is their best scenario and they are already near the strongest they can expect to be; what can elections accomplish for them?

I think Mackay shows the problem of the CPC as a concept. The Reform party is dominant in it, meaning that a PC candidate like Mackay is unlikely to get to lead it. But they need a PC approach nationally, as it will be harder and harder for them to get enough traction countrywide on Reform party issues (outside AB and SK) and they'll have a hard time forming the required ad-hoc coalitions as a minority government with that kind of policy. It doesn't help that Mackay wasn't a strong PC candidate though; too much historical ballast in the party and too many gaffes.
 

Foxbatt

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I thought Mackay ran a very poor campaign for the leadership contest. I think his campaign manager screwed him up. There will be an election as soon as the covid is over. The sooner the better for the Liberals.
O'Toole is never going to win. So back again for the leadership of the conservative party. I am surprised at the NDP. How poor they are. After Jack Layton they have gone downhill and fast.
Singh needs to go and get someone who can get more traction.
 

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I thought Mackay ran a very poor campaign for the leadership contest. I think his campaign manager screwed him up. There will be an election as soon as the covid is over. The sooner the better for the Liberals.
O'Toole is never going to win. So back again for the leadership of the conservative party. I am surprised at the NDP. How poor they are. After Jack Layton they have gone downhill and fast.
Singh needs to go and get someone who can get more traction.
Yeah, Both Mulcair and Singh seem very intelligent and well-spoken (I loved listening to Mulcair), but they have very little charisma, and nothing that stands out in their platforms either. They need a shot of magic somehow.

I agree that O'Toole is an interim guy as much as Scheer was. Not sure who the non-interim leader would be though. I had thought Kenney, but he's made himself pretty impossible outside the Prairies with his current rhetoric. Maybe Ford, if he escape his premiership unscathed. :nervous:
 
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Foxbatt

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Yeah, Both Mulcair and Singh seem very intelligent and well-spoken (I loved listening to Mulcair), but they have very little charisma, and nothing that stands out in their platforms either. They need a shot of magic somehow.

I agree that O'Toole is an interim guy as much as Scheer was. Not sure who the non-interim leader would be though. I had thought Kenney, but he's made himself pretty impossible outside the Prairies with his current rhetoric. Maybe Ford, if he escape his premiership unscathed. :nervous:
I do not see anyone yet in the Tory Party. How about that lady? The problem is that the core Conservative party is too conservative for most of Canada. They need to be fiscal conservatives but liberal in other ways. That is not happening in the conservative party. Harper took it too right. NDP is disappearing in the Maritimes. They need to fight in the maritimes to show an alternative to the Liberals.