Centre Midfielder Transfer Links

One thing not discussed very often in these transfer talks is the homegrown rule.

Maximum of 17 non-homegrown players means English and PL academy players are at a premium in terms of desirability - it's why you'd think we'll end up signing at least one of Anderson, Wharton, Garner or Alex Scott. And Lewis Hall makes a lot of sense at left back as we'll be losing one of our few homegrown players in Shaw in summer 2027 when his contract is done.

We currently have 16 non-homegrown players in the senior squad if I'm not mistaken, assuming you count Yoro who may be too young but soon enough would need to be counted. So we're never as far away from the limit as you think.
That number will include Heaton and Maguire too though
 
Looks like we’re heading for Tonali, Baleba, Mainoo and hopefully one more as midfield options.
 
I understand the caveats, Baleba having a bad season and Wharton not having the physicality of Anderson, but feel like Wharton has great passing and Baleba if he can rediscover his form can be quality.

Wharton's passing isn't quite "great". Anderson's passing is currently better in pretty much every regard (in addition to him having better defensive ability). Wharton is a year behind Anderson, but has a fair bit of work to do in being less loose.

I'll add this chart to this thread as well (xT = Expected Threat)...

Wharton is basically on the same "Pareto frontier" line, as it were, as Mainoo, Mateus Fernandes, and Tonali.

As an aside to this chart, if United sign Tonali, but Mateus Fernandes somehow goes elsewhere this summer when he has a higher ceiling than Tonali both on and off the ball, then I'll be rather annoyed.

qD8ZhLF.png
 
He's Real bound in summer I think.

Seems they're being linked with a lot of midfielders right now. Enzo? Rodri? Vitinha?

United should be seeing if it opens the possibility of Tchouameni or Chema leaving though.
 
Wharton's passing isn't quite "great". Anderson's passing is currently better in pretty much every regard (in addition to him having better defensive ability). Wharton is a year behind Anderson, but has a fair bit of work to do in being less loose.

I'll add this chart to this thread as well (xT = Expected Threat)...

Wharton is basically on the same "Pareto frontier" line, as it were, as Mainoo, Mateus Fernandes, and Tonali.

As an aside to this chart, if United sign Tonali, but Mateus Fernandes somehow goes elsewhere this summer when he has a higher ceiling than Tonali both on and off the ball, then I'll be rather annoyed.

qD8ZhLF.png
Where are you getting xT data from? Also curious how the two Real midfielders fare on xT.
 
Baleba isn’t a technical midfielder. Hes more likely to end up a decent fullback than the midfielder people dream he will be. Certainly not worth more than £45m.

Tonali is what we hoped Ugarte would be.
So ideally the Ugarte fee should be our guide. If you’re spending £80m or more on a CM, they better be special. He’s not special in my opinion. Just go pick up the next Tonali/Reijnders from Serie A for less if we can’t get him at a decent fee.
 
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Seems they're being linked with a lot of midfielders right now. Enzo? Rodri? Vitinha?

United should be seeing if it opens the possibility of Tchouameni or Chema leaving though.
Yeah or Camavinga if they have to sell someone
 
Where are you getting xT data from? Also curious how the two Real midfielders fare on xT.

It says the name of the site on the image... but:
https://per-90.streamlit.app/
There is also another source I've started looking in to with some similar, but slightly different data (e.g. xT from Passing-Crosses:
https://scoutlab.streamlit.app/ )

I've done another version of the chart below, with a few more referenced PL and La Liga names added:

Yeah or Camavinga if they have to sell someone

Camavinga's injury record is really bad though. It could be another Mount situation.

B2Fyhjj.png
 
It says the name of the site on the image... but:
https://per-90.streamlit.app/
There is also another source I've started looking in to with some similar, but slightly different data (e.g. xT from Passing-Crosses:
https://scoutlab.streamlit.app/ )

I've done another version of the chart below, with a few more referenced PL and La Liga names added:



Camavinga's injury record is really bad though. It could be another Mount situation.
They're just websites, it doesn't actually say where the data comes from on the scoutlab website. per-90 says Scoresway and WhoScored, but they have to get the expected threat data from somewhere...

Anyway, this chart make Bruno G seem like a far better option than Tonali for what we're buying them for.
 
The reality is, top player will always have more than 1 suitor for their services. We'll face opposition that will offer more money to the players themselves, club, money under the table to the player and agent etc. it's up to us to sell them on the project, and to negotiate a deal.
 
They're just websites, it doesn't actually say where the data comes from on the scoutlab website. per-90 says Scoresway and WhoScored, but they have to get the expected threat data from somewhere...

Oh I see - their data is all ultimately from Opta (part of 'Stats Perform').

Anyway, this chart make Bruno G seem like a far better option than Tonali for what we're buying them for.

It's a shame that Bruno G is currently out injured. Raises some concerns.
 
They're just websites, it doesn't actually say where the data comes from on the scoutlab website. per-90 says Scoresway and WhoScored, but they have to get the expected threat data from somewhere...

Anyway, this chart make Bruno G seem like a far better option than Tonali for what we're buying them for.
Because he’s a far better player.
 
Oh I see - their data is all ultimately from Opta (part of 'Stats Perform').



It's a shame that Bruno G is currently out injured. Raises some concerns.
Thanks.

Yeah, especially as if you were buying him, you're expecting him to play every game possible.
 
Based on the last talk of the devils podcast, Whitwell reigned in any thought that the club would be spending big this summer even if we qualify for champions league. There are still financial constraints. It seems we want to spend on the midfield similar to what we spent on our attack; so perhaps 2 or 3 £70 to £80 million midfielders. I’m sure we’re in for Tonali but price, wages and potential character issues (gambling ban) are valid red flags.

I have a feeling the two midfielders we’ll end up with are Wharton and Baleba, and potentially a 3rd option if Ugarte leaves. Potentially both Wharton and Baleba fall into the price range. Unfortunately it feels as if we’re not going to splurge £100 million plus on Tonali or Anderson.
 
Based on the last talk of the devils podcast, Whitwell reigned in any thought that the club would be spending big this summer even if we qualify for champions league. There are still financial constraints. It seems we want to spend on the midfield similar to what we spent on our attack; so perhaps 2 or 3 £70 to £80 million midfielders. I’m sure we’re in for Tonali but price, wages and potential character issues (gambling ban) are valid red flags.

I have a feeling the two midfielders we’ll end up with are Wharton and Baleba, and potentially a 3rd option if Ugarte leaves. Potentially both Wharton and Baleba fall into the price range. Unfortunately it feels as if we’re not going to splurge £100 million plus on Tonali or Anderson.
How do people buy this every year? We spend big every summer.

We will end up buying 2 midfielders this summer, with one of them being very expensive. You can take that to the bank.
 
How do people buy this every year? We spend big every summer.

We will end up buying 2 midfielders this summer, with one of them being very expensive. You can take that to the bank.

We've had no European football and played only twenty competitive games at Old Trafford this season, that is not a normal season!

The majority of what we can spend will be based on how well we sell.
 
I think City get Tonali and Anderson. Wharton will go to Liverpool. I don't think Bruno G leaves Newcastle.

I expect us to get two of Mateus Fernandes, Baleba, Joao Gomes or maybe someone like Lamine Camara.
 
I think City get Tonali and Anderson. Wharton will go to Liverpool. I don't think Bruno G leaves Newcastle.

I expect us to get two of Mateus Fernandes, Baleba, Joao Gomes or maybe someone like Lamine Camara.


I actually agree. That is likely. But I really hope you are wrong about Baleba and Gomes coming in and that we instead get Garner and Scott.
 
I actually agree. That is likely. But I really hope you are wrong about Baleba and Gomes coming in and that we instead get Garner and Scott.

Garner signed a new four year contract in January. He doesn't do that if we were interested.
 
How do people buy this every year? We spend big every summer.

We will end up buying 2 midfielders this summer, with one of them being very expensive. You can take that to the bank.
Yep, was about to say. We had no CL last year and still spent £200m+. We're losing the biggest wage burden in the squad, Sancho gone as well. We'll be selling Ugarte, Zirkzee and Rashford. We'll have plenty to spend.
 
Yep, was about to say. We had no CL last year and still spent £200m+. We're losing the biggest wage burden in the squad, Sancho gone as well. We'll be selling Ugarte, Zirkzee and Rashford. We'll have plenty to spend.
We also simply have to. The squad, as it is right now, can't deal with the amount of games we will play next season. We will need at least 2 midfielders, maybe even 3, definitely another attacker, because we lack options and probably a new left back. With De Ligt's and Martinez' injury issues, even a central defender has to be considered.

If we don't spend big this summer, you can expect Carrick, or any manager coming in, to be sacked around Christmas again.
 
We also simply have to. The squad, as it is right now, can't deal with the amount of games we will play next season. We will need at least 2 midfielders, maybe even 3, definitely another attacker, because we lack options and probably a new left back. With De Ligt's and Martinez' injury issues, even a central defender has to be considered.

If we don't spend big this summer, you can expect Carrick, or any manager coming in, to be sacked around Christmas again.
Yep, much like we had to spend on the attack last summer. We simply have to get the midfield right and add quality in depth if we want to be competitive on all fronts.
 
We've had no European football and played only twenty competitive games at Old Trafford this season, that is not a normal season!

The majority of what we can spend will be based on how well we sell.
We’re going to spend upwards of 250 this summer.

Losing Casemiro and Sancho’s wages, Rasmus being sold for close to 40. Rashford is likely out. These are pretty much guaranteed. Even if we can’t shift Onana, Zirkzee and Ugarte, we will still spend 250.

It happens every year.
 
We've had no European football and played only twenty competitive games at Old Trafford this season, that is not a normal season!

The majority of what we can spend will be based on how well we sell.
Bingo. This is what people are failing to understand. We’re going to end up playing a grand total of 40 games this season! There are very few areas to generate new revenue, we’re absolutely tapped out and need European football just to stay competitive.
 
We’re going to spend upwards of 250 this summer.

Losing Casemiro and Sancho’s wages, Rasmus being sold for close to 40. Rashford is likely out. These are pretty much guaranteed. Even if we can’t shift Onana, Zirkzee and Ugarte, we will still spend 250.

It happens every year.

This isn't a normal season for us though!

Missing out on European football has cost us around £140/150m!

Getting back in the Champions League will help massively, but we've got to account for last season's signings and the loss of money from a Europe less season.

I don't think we'll really be in a position to spend big again until next summer, IF we have a good season and qualify for the Champions League for two seasons in a row.
 
One thing not discussed very often in these transfer talks is the homegrown rule.

Maximum of 17 non-homegrown players means English and PL academy players are at a premium in terms of desirability - it's why you'd think we'll end up signing at least one of Anderson, Wharton, Garner or Alex Scott. And Lewis Hall makes a lot of sense at left back as we'll be losing one of our few homegrown players in Shaw in summer 2027 when his contract is done.

We currently have 16 non-homegrown players in the senior squad if I'm not mistaken, assuming you count Yoro who may be too young but soon enough would need to be counted. So we're never as far away from the limit as you think.

We are moving Casemiro on, and hopefully Ugarte if someone makes a decent offer.

Yoro will count as an under 21 player next season, then will be classed as a home grown player because he's had three season's in this country under the age of 21.
 
We are moving Casemiro on, and hopefully Ugarte if someone makes a decent offer.

Yoro will count as an under 21 player next season, then will be classed as a home grown player because he's had three season's in this country under the age of 21.
I'm aware, but any players that leave will need replacing, if we're replacing foreign players with more foreign players there's no net difference. That goes for Zirkzee and Bayindir too.

The difference will come in us increasing the size of the senior squad compared to this season. We'll probably have a couple of extra senior players in the squad next season compared to this one. This season we've made do with just 3 central midfielders (Mainoo, Casemiro, Ugarte), whereas next season I expected we'll have 4. We've also made do with 3 left sided players this season in Shaw, Dorgu and Cunha, whereas I expect next season we'll have 4. So no homegrown signings might push us dangerously close to the limit that it might limit our options in future windows.



I'm pretty sure Yoro will not count as homegrown once he's old enough to be counted in the squad. I asked a couple of AI's and they say the same.
  • Yoro joined Manchester United from Lille (France) in July 2024 at age 18.
  • By his 21st birthday (November 2026), he will have been at United for roughly 2 years and 4 months — well short of the required 36 months, or 3 full seasons.
 

To be honest - £60-70m would make me want him more. We need multiple midfielders anyway, Mainoo needs competition, and Wharton has passing range that Mainoo just doesn't.

However I don't think that price is realistic. Palace will be looking for Rice/Caicedo/Enzo money just like Forest are for Anderson. Maybe if he's in less demand than Anderson then Wharton will end up going for less than £100m, but 60-70 seems like fantasy land.

Last summer it very much looked like we were looking to spend £50m on Mbeumo when the rumours first started, and that just annoyed Brentford as it wasn't anywhere near what they valued him at, and that was reflected in what we ended up paying.
 
It says the name of the site on the image... but:
https://per-90.streamlit.app/
There is also another source I've started looking in to with some similar, but slightly different data (e.g. xT from Passing-Crosses:
https://scoutlab.streamlit.app/ )

I've done another version of the chart below, with a few more referenced PL and La Liga names added:



Camavinga's injury record is really bad though. It could be another Mount situation.

B2Fyhjj.png
Thanks! I wonder how much La Liga inflates the passing numbers. All the Madrid / Barca players are really high; but then they're playing with great teams against (generally) much worse talent.

Just looking at the passing data, Garner seems like the one we should be going for in addition to Anderson. And then maybe Camavinga/Wharton/Fernandes. Don't really see why Tonali would be a priority given his age/price, but obvi there's also more to the position than passing.
 
So last few days from the media hasn't sounded great..

Anderson going to City, Tonali too expensive, Wharton to similar to Mainoo. The only one left that the media talks about is Baleba who have been ass all season.

Doesn't look that good since we need 3 cms this summer.