Champions League Draw | 17:00 CET | United, PSG, Leipzig, Istanbul

[Mb194dc]

Group stages look a total yawn fest. Can pick who will qualify in 9/10 times without them needing to bother playing the games out such is the disparity in team strength of the elite v the rest. Group F could be interesting and who will finish in group C & D, that's about it though.

I say get rid of the seeding and lets have more randomness...

Aware it's all setup to drag it out for maximum TV revenue, but come on.

 

[RashyForPM]

Guess I just fundamentally disagree. Liverpool's group can hardly be the easiest in human history when City got an easier group from the same draw despite being in a worse position, can it?

Ok my point was that it’s piss easy, sometimes you exaggerate to push the point.

 

[Igor Drefljak]

Someone will know the answer to this as I was slightly busy while the draw was on.

Why was it we had to be put with PSG when City was still in the pot?

 

[RashyForPM]

I think I did some analysis around a decade ago and on average 10 points for you through 50% of the time. The fewer losses, the better (so 2 wins 4 draws is better than 3 wins 1 draw).

9 points rarely gets you through

I’m actually surprised it’s that low. Feel like every team with 10 points go through, sometimes top. I know we came 2nd in 2018-19 with 10 points.

 

[Gasolin]

Someone will know the answer to this as I was slightly busy while the draw was on.

Why was it we had to be put with PSG when City was still in the pot?

It's been mentioned in the thread but apparently we have some sort of TV pairing restrictions that put Liverpool and United together, so we cannot play on the same night. Automatically, if Liverpool goes in one side, we have to be on the other side. City apparently don't have this issue. Other types of pairing: Real and Barcelona, Bayern and BVB, etc...

 

[Igor Drefljak]

It's been mentioned in the thread but apparently we have some sort of TV pairing restrictions that put Liverpool and United together, so we cannot play on the same night. Automatically, if Liverpool goes in one side, we have to be on the other side. City apparently don't have this issue. Other types of pairing: Real and Barcelona, Bayern and BVB, etc...

Weird...Thanks

 

[TheMagicFoolBus]

Ok my point was that it’s piss easy, sometimes you exaggerate to push the point.

Apologies if I was being pedantic! Sorry was just a bit confused.

 

[Siorac]

Group stages look a total yawn fest. Can pick who will qualify in 9/10 times without them needing to bother playing the games out such is the disparity in team strength of the elite v the rest. Group F could be interesting and who will finish in group C & D, that's about it though.

I say get rid of the seeding and lets have more randomness...

Aware it's all setup to drag it out for maximum TV revenue, but come on.

And our group is also quite interesting, unless you think United can't even put up a fight against Leipzig which would be a little extreme I think. We're not THAT bad.

 

[Vidyoyo]

Just seen.

Yeah... I don't think we're getting through to the round of 16. PSG and Red Balls of Leipzig are comfortably better than us.

 

[RashyForPM]

Apologies if I was being pedantic! Sorry was just a bit confused.

It’s alright mate Tbf you guys got a slightly harder but still easy group too. Not exaggerating this time, Krasnodar are the smallest pot 3 teams i’ve seen in a while. Easy qualification?

 

[Ballache]

My first reaction was "Oh crap" but then I thought, feck it! We're not gonna win the thing anyway we might as well enjoy some great matches.
I reckon we will finish 2nd behind PSG, but it's going to be tough.

 

[Gasolin]

Just seen.

Yeah... I don't think we're getting through to the round of 16. PSG and Red Balls of Leipzig are comfortably better than us.

Let me ask a naive question then. What about the fact that we can counter all those teams that want to keep the ball? Like doing the league double against City, getting a point when it mattered against Liverpool, etc... Don't you think both of those teams are actually way easier for a team like United that is not yet able to control the games as we have some imbalance, but we can win, and will most likely? We could even top the group.

 

[rcoobc]

I’m actually surprised it’s that low. Feel like every team with 10 points go through, sometimes top. I know we came 2nd in 2018-19 with 10 points.

I must be missremembering. Just looked back through last few years and only 1 team has gone out with 10 points.

In world cups/euros its 4 points that is the 50/50 chance of going through, but I think 8 is far too low?

 

[T_Model101]

How on earth were we even in Pot 2?
Is this because of Moyes Olympiakos comeback years ago?
The group stages have become more interesting since they changed the seeding structure to credit league winners a few years ago

 

[NJM78]

I do think we can go one step further in the Europa and reach the final this season.

 

[Infra-red]

My first reaction was "Oh crap" but then I thought, feck it! We're not gonna win the thing anyway we might as well enjoy some great matches.
I reckon we will finish 2nd behind PSG, but it's going to be tough.

We're the third best team in the group, but you never know!

I reckon Real Madrid might come a cropper against Shakhtar, Inter and Gladbach. Hipster's choice will definitely be Ajax vs Atalanta - should be decent games to watch.

 

[Vidyoyo]

Let me ask a naive question then. What about the fact that we can counter all those teams that want to keep the ball? Like doing the league double against City, getting a point when it mattered against Liverpool, etc... Don't you think both of those teams are actually way easier for a team like United that is not yet able to control the games as we have some imbalance, but we can win, and will most likely? We could even top the group.

I like the way you think.

 

[Pretzels81]

Worried. Watch us drop points in Istanbul + a "not that shocking-really" double defeat ar Paris and Leipzig. That means 10 points at best!

 

[Chipper]

How on earth were we even in Pot 2?
Is this because of Moyes Olympiakos comeback years ago?
The group stages have become more interesting since they changed the seeding structure to credit league winners a few years ago

You score a pretty high amount of points for going far in the Europa League. We've still got our win in that and last season's semi counting for good scores.

We're ranked as the 9th best side in Europe over tha past 5 years -
https://www.uefa.com/memberassociations/uefarankings/club/#/yr/2020

 

[Gasolin]

How on earth were we even in Pot 2?
Is this because of Moyes Olympiakos comeback years ago?
The group stages have become more interesting since they changed the seeding structure to credit league winners a few years ago

I am guessing they are looking at that here:
https://www.uefa.com/memberassociations/uefarankings/club/#/yr/2020

We got 13 pts in the EL at the R16 against Liverpool.
We won the EL in 16/17 so 26 pts.
20 pts after in 17/18 against Sevilla in R16.
19 pts in 18/19 when Ole took over and beat PSG but lost in the QF against Barcelona.
22 pts in 19/20 by reaching the SF in the EL.

 

[CamsUnited]

Those groups interest me about as much as doing a 10k run, our is the most interesting, thankfully.
I’d much rather see a Round of 32 then 4 groups of 4 with stronger teams and better games.

 

[RashyForPM]

I would love that second one.

We are better against better teams.

Let’s hope you’re right. Actually, PSG and Leipzig are harder than the hardest draw I came up with yesterday. What’s more, there is literally no walkover team in our actual group, which normally you get with Young Boys, Brugge etc. Istanbul will be very challenging.

 

[SATA]

Why are we finishing third? Do Red Bull have better players or a better team than us?

 

[PoTMS]

Let’s hope you’re right. Actually, PSG and Leipzig are harder than the hardest draw I came up with yesterday. What’s more, there is literally no walkover team in our actual group, which normally you get with Young Boys, Brugge etc. Istanbul will be very challenging.

Why are Istanbul challenging? They're shite, currently sitting bottom of their league. If we can't beat them, there's no point in playing turning up against PSG.

 

[Zen86]

Why are we finishing third? Do Red Bull have better players or a better team than us?

Expect a load of gubbins about coaching.

 

[Infra-red]

Why are we finishing third? Do Red Bull have better players or a better team than us?

Individually, perhaps not, but they are a better, more cohesive team.

 

[Mrs Smoker]

Oh shit, Istanbul.

 

[alexthelion]

B, H and F got to be the most competitive groups.

And the three easiest groups have the other English teams. What a surprise!

 

[cyberman]

Individually, perhaps not, but they are a better, more cohesive team.

I completely disagree with this. Just because we have better individuals doesnt mean we are a lesser side?

 

[RashyForPM]

Why are Istanbul challenging? They're shite, currently sitting bottom of their league. If we can't beat them, there's no point in playing turning up against PSG.

It’s Istanbul. The home game should be a walkover like most home games against Turkish teams are, but going to Turkey is always a piece of shite, especially with the news that fans will be allowed. The atmosphere, hostility etc. None of our great teams under Fergie relished playing in Turkey.

Also, they’re 3 games in Not really a massive sample size.

 

[Infra-red]

I completely disagree with this. Just because we have better individuals doesnt mean we are a lesser side?

Do you mean to suggest that United have weaker players man-for-man, but a stronger team than Leipzig?

 

[Strelok]

Who say we're the 2nd/3rd best team forgot one thing: we only have 11 decent first team players + VDB. We can't play Mata, Lingard or James in the PL and expect to win. Either in the CL.

Anyone here has an idea about the squad depth of Leipzig or Istanbul?

 

[Ballache]

Why are we finishing third? Do Red Bull have better players or a better team than us?

They have a very talented manager and a good team. They are not better than us.

 

[zee.robs]

fivethirtyeight.com has published its first prediction for this CL season. They are predicting a super tight race in group H. SPI is the metric they use to rank teams. Percentages are given on were to finish in the group and which stages to reach in the KO rounds.

Team	Group	SPI		1st	2nd	3rd		last 16	quarters	semis	final	win
Bayern Munich0 pts	A	94.3		63%	26%	10%		89%	68%	49%	33%	20%
Atlético Madrid0 pts	A	87.5		24%	43%	28%		66%	38%	19%	9%	4%
RB Salzburg0 pts	A	80.4		12%	28%	44%		40%	18%	7%	3%	1%
Lokomotiv0 pts	A	60.6		<1%	4%	18%		4%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Real Madrid0 pts	B	89.3		50%	28%	15%		78%	49%	27%	14%	7%
Inter Milan0 pts	B	84.2		29%	32%	24%		61%	30%	14%	6%	2%
Gladbach0 pts	B	76.5		11%	21%	31%		32%	12%	4%	1%	<1%
Shakhtar0 pts	B	75.1		10%	19%	30%		30%	10%	3%	1%	<1%
Man. City0 pts	C	92.8		79%	15%	5%		94%	69%	45%	28%	16%
Porto0 pts	C	76.5		10%	37%	32%		47%	16%	5%	2%	<1%
Olympiacos0 pts	C	75.2		8%	32%	35%		40%	13%	4%	1%	<1%
Marseille0 pts	C	65.0		3%	16%	29%		19%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Liverpool0 pts	D	91.4		70%	22%	7%		92%	63%	38%	22%	12%
Atalanta0 pts	D	80.0		18%	41%	30%		59%	23%	9%	3%	1%
Ajax0 pts	D	75.1		11%	30%	40%		41%	13%	4%	1%	<1%
Midtjylland0 pts	D	58.0		1%	7%	22%		8%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Chelsea0 pts	E	83.7		51%	30%	14%		80%	40%	17%	7%	3%
Sevilla0 pts	E	81.0		35%	37%	19%		72%	31%	12%	4%	2%
Rennes0 pts	E	68.7		9%	20%	36%		28%	7%	2%	<1%	<1%
Krasnodar0 pts	E	64.8		5%	14%	30%		19%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Dortmund0 pts	F	84.0		49%	27%	16%		77%	39%	17%	7%	3%
Zenit0 pts	F	78.7		28%	31%	25%		59%	22%	8%	3%	<1%
Lazio0 pts	F	72.1		14%	23%	31%		37%	10%	3%	<1%	<1%
Club Brugge0 pts	F	68.8		9%	18%	28%		27%	7%	2%	<1%	<1%
Barcelona0 pts	G	90.9		70%	25%	5%		94%	63%	38%	21%	11%
Juventus0 pts	G	82.2		26%	51%	18%		77%	33%	13%	5%	2%
Dynamo Kiev0 pts	G	67.0		4%	19%	51%		23%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%
Ferencváros0 pts	G	54.1		<1%	5%	26%		6%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
PSG0 pts	H	89.8		52%	30%	17%		82%	52%	30%	17%	9%
RB Leipzig0 pts	H	84.1		24%	34%	37%		59%	30%	13%	5%	2%
Man. United0 pts	H	84.0		23%	34%	37%		58%	29%	13%	5%	2%
Başakşehir0 pts	H	52.8		<1%	2%	9%		2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

 

[TheMagicFoolBus]

It’s alright mate Tbf you guys got a slightly harder but still easy group too. Not exaggerating this time, Krasnodar are the smallest pot 3 teams i’ve seen in a while. Easy qualification?

Would have us as better odds to go through compared to you all things considered but not by a huge margin. Rennes aren't a side to sneeze at which has been overlooked, and traveling to Krasnodar is a bit of a mare irrespective of whether fans are there or not. Maybe something on the order of 75% odds for us, 70% for you?

 

[Snow]

I wanted dortmund and leipzeg in our group. Mainly cause when Sancho and Upamencano have man of the match performances against us, the camera can pan to Woodward in the directors box. That would be priceless.

You can't get both.

 

[lex talionis]

I suggest we hold off on predictions until after the transfer window closes. I seriously doubt that we're done with our business.

 

[Glorio]

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Good news. Wonder when tickets will go on sale for ours?

Does this not mean that countries where fans are allowed will have an unfair advantage?

If the government forbids it here, we'll have an empty OT for our home games and potentially play away games with opposing fans baying in the stands

 

[eltigreFalcao]

What if we win the Champions League? That would be immense too! Too bad either scenario isn’t going to happen.

Well, your statement is not any closer to reality than the scenario I wondered about, the only different is that you say it as if you already know the fact...

 

[Samid]