Champions League Quarter Finals | Chelsea vs Real (Tue) | Bayern vs City (Wed)

It's maths with taking any other aspect into account because it's too arbitrary (a team in good form could suffer a shock). In its most simplistic form, at the moment, we have 75% chance of having an italian club in the final (it guarantees nothing just to be precise)

Yes, they could. They could also get from good to great form. Or a team in not so good form could go to great or worse form. You can factor this into probabilities if you think one is more likely than the other. Sure, you can say that we cannot probably assess this. But if we cannot assess the future development of "form" (whatever that may be) then it is more prudent to go by a current assessment of each team's match-up against their next and potential opponents.
 
They're focused every year.
But they have been much better in the Champions league this year. Haaland has changed them, and in the Champions league so far its been for the better. League not so much.
 
Well, this draw suits nicely. Milan is beatable, Inter-Benfica winner in semis as well (although we lost to Inter), and then in final... Chelsea is the easiest there, others might be very tough opponents. Real in final would be a great suckup. They don't lose in finals.
We are the definition of cup team. Sure we will probably lose against Madrid but we aren’t getting battered like the scouse. No way we are easy than Milan, Inter and Benfica . You’re smoking something. We smashed Milan already, twice.
 
Yes, they could. They could also get from good to great form. Or a team in not so good form could go to great or worse form. You can factor this into probabilities if you think one is more likely than the other. Sure, you can say that we cannot probably assess this. But if we cannot assess the future development of "form" (whatever that may be) then it is more prudent to go by a current assessment of each team's match-up against their next and potential opponents.
I don't understand why you're even talking about being prudent ? Like it's simplistic maths, I know I'm not a betting man so saying any percentage of likely events means nothing tbh.
This ain't an attempt at reading the future but more about a statistical review of the draw
 
I assume someone very powerful has decreed that an Italian team has at least have to make the Chmps Lge final.
What a joke!
 
Specially when they have the best position in their league. They could easily rotate players for this

Absolutely. A double for them is really not unrealistic. Them winning the champions league would make for a fine story as well.
 
Well, this draw suits nicely. Milan is beatable, Inter-Benfica winner in semis as well (although we lost to Inter), and then in final... Chelsea is the easiest there, others might be very tough opponents. Real in final would be a great suckup. They don't lose in finals.

I'm pretty confident you'll get Benfica in the semi. Comfortably a better side than Inter right now for my money.
 
I fancy City to beat Bayern and Real back to back but surely Pep will overthink and play Haaland RB causing them to go out
 
Glorious chance for Napoli to reach the final. Basically the other top teams all all on the other side of the draw.

Real will end up knocking out 3 PL teams again if city get past Bayern.

Napoli Real final IMO.
 
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@giorno round 3 it is.

The previous two years, the winner between us has gone on to win it all. I'm just saying.
We have a losing record against you lot so it's time we fix that i guess. Not that i'm confident, you are still our worst possible match up

In lighter news, this is italy's year
 
Must really irk you that in your best since Paisley the entire football world will remember you as nothing more than a side piece to City’s dominance. Klopp’s nearly spent more money in 7 years than Fergie did in 26 and only has 3 major trophies to show for it, what an investment :lol:

:lol:

Fergie could buy 20 Roy Keane with Keita money :lol:
:rolleyes:
 
Must really irk you that in your best since Paisley the entire football world will remember you as nothing more than a side piece to City’s dominance. Klopp’s nearly spent more money in 7 years than Fergie did in 26 and only has 3 major trophies to show for it, what an investment :lol:
Dont expect him to answer that.
 
It is funny how Real-Chelsea wasn't a thing for so long and now we get it 3x in a row. Make for fun games as well.

Yep, spent 20 years completely avoiding each other while us and Barca were up each other's arses every single season. I bet we meet each other next season again, after we win the whole thing this year of course.
 
We have a losing record against you lot so it's time we fix that i guess. Not that i'm confident, you are still our worst possible match up

In lighter news, this is italy's year

Benfica will get to the final and then succumb to Bela Guttman's curse once more.
 
Dont expect him to answer that.

I'll answer. Why do you think I wouldn't?

I'm fecking ecstatic after 30 years of no PL that we finally have one. This is after 20 years of Redcafe abuse about the length of time without one, albeit self inflicted. The age of car that was being driven, the characters in EastEnders/Corrie that have since left or died. You get the jist.

I honestly thought with our luck Klopp would not be able to break the deadlock in my lifetime either. The relief that he finally did is huge.
 
I don't understand why you're even talking about being prudent ? Like it's simplistic maths, I know I'm not a betting man so saying any percentage of likely events means nothing tbh.
This ain't an attempt at reading the future but more about a statistical review of the draw

While it may be counter-intuitive, the fact that 3 out of 4 clubs are Italian does not necessarily mean that there is a 75% chance that one of them gets to the final. That would only be the case if you think all teams are completely equal (i.e. they have exactly the same probability to qualify) or if the sum of the probabilities for each Italian team in your opinion equals 75% (e.g. if you think that Napoli has a 35% chance to advance to the final, 25% for Milan and 15% for Inter). That's why I said "it depends".

Anyway, I was just being pedantic, because it annoys me when people use probabilities loosely (and incorrectly). :lol:
 
The usual underrating of Chelsea has commenced. I think I like it the more when we are in this position. Funny how we've beaten all the teams in our path to the final now before in both our 2 CL wins, 2 of them in the finals and one in the Semi.
 
While it may be counter-intuitive, the fact that 3 out of 4 clubs are Italian does not necessarily mean that there is a 75% chance that one of them gets to the final. That would only be the case if you think all teams are completely equal (i.e. they have exactly the same probability to qualify) or if the sum of the probabilities for each Italian team in your opinion equals 75% (e.g. if you think that Napoli has a 35% chance to advance to the final, 25% for Milan and 15% for Inter). That's why I said "it depends".

Anyway, I was just being pedantic, because it annoys me when people use probabilities loosely (and incorrectly). :lol:
And that's what I implied (that they have all the same chances), it's a very basic way of looking at it. I know what you mean because it doesn't take into account many parameters but why would I honestly bother with that ? I'm on the Caf and I'm not publishing odds for people to bet on
 
The usual underrating of Chelsea has commenced. I think I like it the more when we are in this position. Funny how we've beaten all the teams in our path to the final now before in both our 2 CL wins, 2 of them in the finals and one in the Semi.

One word: Graham.
 
Real Madrid : Chelsea
Milan : Napoli
Inter : Benfica
City
: Bayern

Final is City : Napoli. City win their first CL.

Real Madrid : Chelsea
Milan : Napoli
Inter : Benfica
City : Bayern

I can watch semis without fear City or Chelsea being in the final.

Napoli - Bayern final

Don't care who wins it.
Maybe Napoli, never won it.
Fairytale. Or is it Fairy tale. Hm.
 
Sadly, I think nobody will be able to stop Haaland this year.
 
So Benfica has to stop Italian clubs advance to the final?

Huge end of season for Napoli. They're in comfortable position in the league to rest and focus around the CL games. Milan had the history, but their team is not great now. Napoli current level should give them the upper hand against both Inter and Milan. Benfica is also the dark horse this season as Napoli, so this is a freshly interesting route.
 
So we’re all Bayern fans for these two games. Come on Bundesliga, red cafe loves you!
 
His goal record is something but our collapse at their ground aside he’s been quiet in a lot of the bigger games. Plus we had Shawberto in peak form that day.

Then again I think City are on paper the strongest team around right now. That’s why I’m pinning my hopes on Bayern as they are best equipped to stop them.