It's maths with taking any other aspect into account because it's too arbitrary (a team in good form could suffer a shock). In its most simplistic form, at the moment, we have 75% chance of having an italian club in the final (it guarantees nothing just to be precise)
Yes, they could. They could also get from good to great form. Or a team in not so good form could go to great or worse form. You can factor this into probabilities if you think one is more likely than the other. Sure, you can say that we cannot probably assess this. But if we cannot assess the future development of "form" (whatever that may be) then it is more prudent to go by a current assessment of each team's match-up against their next and potential opponents.