Christopher Nkunku to Chelsea | Confirmed

[Rolaholic]

Anyone that continually uses the word ‘hipster’ in their posts, or uses it to describe any opinion that doesn’t align with their own, should be taken out and shot.

Just my opinion.

It's so condescending

Also noticed that it usually refers to players/managers/leagues that the person using the term has hardly actually watched in real time yet still wants to feel smug about and have a strong opinion on because others might rate them too much for their liking.

 

[jesperjaap]

I would probably start with going all out for Phillips and Rice. I don't think Phillips is an elite CM, but he's attainable and a much better player than he gets credit for. Rice is unbelievably good and would be absolutely perfect, but very expensive.

Then I'd sign Pedro Neto from Wolves. Has just returned from a serious knee injury but I believe he was well on-track to be an exceptional wide-player.

You have just spent our budget on two defensive midfieldes and a left winger.....probably gone way over the budget in fact as mad as that sounds.

I like Neto, I like Nkunku, I love Sulemana, but I wouldnt sign any of them this summer as they are all essentially left sided players, one of hte efw positions we have options a plenty, regardless and decent back up and starters with Elanga/Sancho not forgetting Rashford (well maybe forgettign actually) and Hannibal can play there and there is Garnacho (though with the inverted winger thing maybe he will be an option on the right)

Rice ridiculously wasnt good enough and Mctominay was better about twelve months ago according to a lot on this forum, razy. Obviously be a great signing but we cant spend £100m on one player, not a fan of Phillips but that is just a personal opinion.

But we must sign a centre back and a right back this window too I feel, aain its just a personal opinion, but I wouldnt see that as a godo window at all, even gettign Rice.....Lindelof as the only back up if Varane is out, alongside Maguire, DAlot probably starting at right back, Ronaldo the only option up front.....still so many problems that would really hold us back

 

[BlueHaze]

I would probably start with going all out for Phillips and Rice. I don't think Phillips is an elite CM, but he's attainable and a much better player than he gets credit for. Rice is unbelievably good and would be absolutely perfect, but very expensive.

Then I'd sign Pedro Neto from Wolves. Has just returned from a serious knee injury but I believe he was well on-track to be an exceptional wide-player.

All out for a Leeds player who's not even remotely good enough to be CM at Man Utd who's also been out for a longer period with injuries and the other one a guy who's quouted to cost upwards to a £100m. There is absolutely no chance in hell we'll ever go near Rice unless West Ham suddenly slashed his price in half.

 

[Lentwood]

You have just spent our budget on two defensive midfieldes and a left winger.....probably gone way over the budget in fact as mad as that sounds.

I like Neto, I like Nkunku, I love Sulemana, but I wouldnt sign any of them this summer as they are all essentially left sided players, one of hte efw positions we have options a plenty, regardless and decent back up and starters with Elanga/Sancho not forgetting Rashford (well maybe forgettign actually) and Hannibal can play there and there is Garnacho (though with the inverted winger thing maybe he will be an option on the right)

Rice ridiculously wasnt good enough and Mctominay was better about twelve months ago according to a lot on this forum, razy. Obviously be a great signing but we cant spend £100m on one player, not a fan of Phillips but that is just a personal opinion.

But we must sign a centre back and a right back this window too I feel, aain its just a personal opinion, but I wouldnt see that as a godo window at all, even gettign Rice.....Lindelof as the only back up if Varane is out, alongside Maguire, DAlot probably starting at right back, Ronaldo the only option up front.....still so many problems that would really hold us back

Those are the positions I think we need to address personally. We also need a CF desperately, but I'd rather not just guess at someone and I'm not sure who I'd go for right now.

I think Rice, Neto and Phillips would cost about £220m, I think if you factor in selling the likes of Rashford and Martial, that's not outrageously optimistic.

In 'expected value' terms, I think addressing the centre of midfield yields the most return in terms of 'points gained' next season, however, RR is right that we need to address every area of the pitch at some point.

 

[Lentwood]

So you want us to be signing elite players and come up with that list? Actually made me laugh out loud.

Why exactly is Pedro Neto a better option than others?

Pedro Neto looked like a really good prospect before his serious knee injury. Has barely played for 12-months but he's skilful, has excellent technique and is really quick and direct.

Incidentally, I ran a few stats for the last three high-profile players signed from the Bundesliga by Premier League teams. I believe that in-total, these players cost United and Chelsea £193m.

Jadon Sancho
Season	Games	Club	League	Pos	MP	Starts	Minutes	90s	Goals	Assists	NPGs	PKs	Pka	Gp90	Ap90	G+Ap90	G+PKp90	G+A+PK	xG	npxG	xA	npxG+A
2019-2020	19	Dortmund	Bundesliga	2nd	32	25	2,287	25.4	17	16	17	0	0	0.67	0.63	1.30	0.67	1.30	9.30	9.30	9.00	18.30
2020-2021	20	Dortmund	Bundesliga	3rd	26	24	2,062	22.9	8	11	7	1	1	0.35	0.48	0.83	0.31	0.79	7.40	6.60	6.80	13.40
2021-2022	21	Manchester Utd	Premier League	6th	29	20	1,900	21.1	3	3	3	0	0	0.14	0.14	0.28	0.14	0.28	3.30	3.30	4.20	7.50
Timo Werner
Season	Games	Club	League	Pos	MP	Starts	Minutes	90s	Goals	Assists	NPGs	PKs	Pka	Gp90	Ap90	G+Ap90	G+PKp90	G+A+PK	xG	npxG	xA	npxG+A
2018-2019	22	RB Leipzig	Bundesliga	3rd	30	29	2,509	27.9	16	7	16	0	1	0.57	0.25	0.83	0.57	0.83	14.80	14.00	4.90	18.90
2019-2020	23	RB Leipzig	Bundesliga	3rd	34	33	2,795	31.1	28	8	25	3	3	0.90	0.26	1.16	0.81	1.06	22.40	20.20	8.80	28.90
2020-2021	24	Chelsea	Premier League	4th	35	29	2,602	28.9	6	8	6	0	0	0.21	0.28	0.48	0.21	0.48	11.90	11.90	6.10	18.00
2021-2022	25	Chelsea	Premier League	3rd	18	12	1,056	11.7	4	1	4	0	0	0.34	0.09	0.43	0.34	0.43	6.30	6.30	0.30	6.60
Kai Havertz
Season	Games	Club	League	Pos	MP	Starts	Minutes	90s	Goals	Assists	NPGs	PKs	Pka	Gp90	Ap90	G+Ap90	G+PKp90	G+A+PK	xG	npxG	xA	npxG+A
2018-2019	19	Leverkusen	Bundesliga	4th	34	33	2,894	32.2	17	3	14	3	3	0.53	0.09	0.62	0.44	0.53	13.10	10.80	4.80	15.60
2019-2020	20	Leverkusen	Bundesliga	5th	30	29	2,454	27.3	12	6	11	1	1	0.44	0.22	0.66	0.40	0.62	9.10	8.30	6.20	14.60
2020-2021	21	Chelsea	Premier League	4th	27	18	1,520	16.9	4	3	4	0	0	0.24	0.18	0.41	0.24	0.41	6.30	6.30	1.60	7.80
2021-2022	22	Chelsea	Premier League	3rd	24	19	1,546	17.2	7	2	7	0	0	0.41	0.12	0.52	0.41	0.52	7.20	7.20	1.50	8.70

You can see with each player, there is a significant decline in output, in terms of goals and assists, and in expected output.

Now, I appreciate this isn't 'proof' of anything, but it does highlight that it can be difficult to adapt. Here is a quote from Timo Werner during his first season in England

"The Premier League is a little bit different to my old league. It's tougher than I thought. The contact here is harder than in Germany, it's what I expected but not like this."

Also, a recent quote from Ralf Rangnick on the difference in quality between the two leagues

"If I compare the German Bundesliga with the English League, we've played Norwich, Newcastle and Burnley; 3 of the bottom teams, but they would never be bottom teams in the Bundesliga, with their physicality, speed, way they play and emotions of their stadiums"

So, my point remains - you have to consider the difference in quality between the two leagues when you think about signing a player from the Bundesliga. You can't just pop a player into FBREF (or whatever it's called) and expect that they'll achieve similar output in the Premier League.

Personally, as stated before, I would like to see how a player performs in the Champions League and for their National team, in addition to performances in the Bundesliga, before I take the risk. If you look at some of the players who have successfully made the transition, i.e. Gundogan and Aubameyang, they both had great experience at Champions League and International level. Likewise, I'd consider someone like Haaland less of a risk, because he's done it for Norway and in the Champions League.

Of course, there have been a small handful of other notable successes who perhaps hadn't had that same level of experience internationally and in Europe, for example Son and KdB, but both were 22/23 when they were signed by Spurs and City and so you would class both as still in the 'development' stage.

Nkunku will be 25 near the start of next season. If you guys all want to take a risk on a player at that age, with little European success/experience and little International experience, then fine, good luck to you all. It's a somewhat pointless argument because we'll never know what may or may not happen in any given scenario. I am just repeating my point that you have to be very, very careful when signing from the Bundesliga and Eredivisie.

It's not even as if these players will be cheap, that's my biggest issue with it all. If Nkunku would cost £15/20m then fine, have at it, roll the dice. However, we're talking £50m-odd. It's a significant amount of money.

There is a reason there is a 'Premier League tax' aside from the relative wealth of the clubs, and that's because signing a player who is already performing well in the Premier League reduces the variables and therefore the risk.

 

[JPRouve]

Pedro Neto looked like a really good prospect before his serious knee injury. Has barely played for 12-months but he's skilful, has excellent technique and is really quick and direct.

Incidentally, I ran a few stats for the last three high-profile players signed from the Bundesliga by Premier League teams. I believe that in-total, these players cost United and Chelsea £193m.

Jadon Sancho
Season	Games	Club	League	Pos	MP	Starts	Minutes	90s	Goals	Assists	NPGs	PKs	Pka	Gp90	Ap90	G+Ap90	G+PKp90	G+A+PK	xG	npxG	xA	npxG+A
2019-2020	19	Dortmund	Bundesliga	2nd	32	25	2,287	25.4	17	16	17	0	0	0.67	0.63	1.30	0.67	1.30	9.30	9.30	9.00	18.30
2020-2021	20	Dortmund	Bundesliga	3rd	26	24	2,062	22.9	8	11	7	1	1	0.35	0.48	0.83	0.31	0.79	7.40	6.60	6.80	13.40
2021-2022	21	Manchester Utd	Premier League	6th	29	20	1,900	21.1	3	3	3	0	0	0.14	0.14	0.28	0.14	0.28	3.30	3.30	4.20	7.50
Timo Werner
Season	Games	Club	League	Pos	MP	Starts	Minutes	90s	Goals	Assists	NPGs	PKs	Pka	Gp90	Ap90	G+Ap90	G+PKp90	G+A+PK	xG	npxG	xA	npxG+A
2018-2019	22	RB Leipzig	Bundesliga	3rd	30	29	2,509	27.9	16	7	16	0	1	0.57	0.25	0.83	0.57	0.83	14.80	14.00	4.90	18.90
2019-2020	23	RB Leipzig	Bundesliga	3rd	34	33	2,795	31.1	28	8	25	3	3	0.90	0.26	1.16	0.81	1.06	22.40	20.20	8.80	28.90
2020-2021	24	Chelsea	Premier League	4th	35	29	2,602	28.9	6	8	6	0	0	0.21	0.28	0.48	0.21	0.48	11.90	11.90	6.10	18.00
2021-2022	25	Chelsea	Premier League	3rd	18	12	1,056	11.7	4	1	4	0	0	0.34	0.09	0.43	0.34	0.43	6.30	6.30	0.30	6.60
Kai Havertz
Season	Games	Club	League	Pos	MP	Starts	Minutes	90s	Goals	Assists	NPGs	PKs	Pka	Gp90	Ap90	G+Ap90	G+PKp90	G+A+PK	xG	npxG	xA	npxG+A
2018-2019	19	Leverkusen	Bundesliga	4th	34	33	2,894	32.2	17	3	14	3	3	0.53	0.09	0.62	0.44	0.53	13.10	10.80	4.80	15.60
2019-2020	20	Leverkusen	Bundesliga	5th	30	29	2,454	27.3	12	6	11	1	1	0.44	0.22	0.66	0.40	0.62	9.10	8.30	6.20	14.60
2020-2021	21	Chelsea	Premier League	4th	27	18	1,520	16.9	4	3	4	0	0	0.24	0.18	0.41	0.24	0.41	6.30	6.30	1.60	7.80
2021-2022	22	Chelsea	Premier League	3rd	24	19	1,546	17.2	7	2	7	0	0	0.41	0.12	0.52	0.41	0.52	7.20	7.20	1.50	8.70

You can see with each player, there is a significant decline in output, in terms of goals and assists, and in expected output.

Now, I appreciate this isn't 'proof' of anything, but it does highlight that it can be difficult to adapt. Here is a quote from Timo Werner during his first season in England

"The Premier League is a little bit different to my old league. It's tougher than I thought. The contact here is harder than in Germany, it's what I expected but not like this."

Also, a recent quote from Ralf Rangnick on the difference in quality between the two leagues

"If I compare the German Bundesliga with the English League, we've played Norwich, Newcastle and Burnley; 3 of the bottom teams, but they would never be bottom teams in the Bundesliga, with their physicality, speed, way they play and emotions of their stadiums"

So, my point remains - you have to consider the difference in quality between the two leagues when you think about signing a player from the Bundesliga. You can't just pop a player into FBREF (or whatever it's called) and expect that they'll achieve similar output in the Premier League.

Personally, as stated before, I would like to see how a player performs in the Champions League and for their National team, in addition to performances in the Bundesliga, before I take the risk. If you look at some of the players who have successfully made the transition, i.e. Gundogan and Aubameyang, they both had great experience at Champions League and International level. Likewise, I'd consider someone like Haaland less of a risk, because he's done it for Norway and in the Champions League.

Of course, there have been a small handful of other notable successes who perhaps hadn't had that same level of experience internationally and in Europe, for example Son and KdB, but both were 22/23 when they were signed by Spurs and City and so you would class both as still in the 'development' stage.

Nkunku will be 25 near the start of next season. If you guys all want to take a risk on a player at that age, with little European success/experience and little International experience, then fine, good luck to you all. It's a somewhat pointless argument because we'll never know what may or may not happen in any given scenario. I am just repeating my point that you have to be very, very careful when signing from the Bundesliga and Eredivisie.

It's not even as if these players will be cheap, that's my biggest issue with it all. If Nkunku would cost £15/20m then fine, have at it, roll the dice. However, we're talking £50m-odd. It's a significant amount of money.

There is a reason there is a 'Premier League tax' aside from the relative wealth of the clubs, and that's because signing a player who is already performing well in the Premier League reduces the variables and therefore the risk.

Can you quantify it or even give us a solid sample that showcases that?

Also Nkunku has played 28 continental games including a CL semifinal.

 

[NoLogo]

"The Premier League is a little bit different to my old league. It's tougher than I thought. The contact here is harder than in Germany, it's what I expected but not like this."

This is definitely true. Bundesliga is super soft, pretty much any physical contact gets called as a foul. I think the league could really benefit from some more physical contact being allowed.

I think this is pretty unique to the Bundesliga though, Spain, France and Portuguese leagues all seem to be much closer to the Premier League in terms of physical toughness and might be one of the reason we see so many Bundesliga arrivals having a hard or long adaptation period and sometimes failing completely.

 

[justsomebloke]

The only way to get at any systematic trend in PL success rate relative to development route is to quantify it for a large number of players. But I can't really see how that can be done, given the fact that players are recruited to the PL at wildly varying stages of their development - and above all, because there is no real way to quantify expectation at recruitment. You can do this for, f.e., the NHL, because the development routes and recruitment channels are much fewer, and because the entry draft provides a handy point of reference for talent level and expectation at the same age for all players.

Lacking that, you basically end up with an anecdotal case ("just look at player x, y and z"), which is worse than nothing. You can source basically any assessment that way, and it's just confirmation bias galore.

With no sound methodology there's really not much you can say, other than there's no sure thing, there are challenges for everyone involved in transitioning from another league to the PL, and each player has to be assessed on his own.

 

[JPRouve]

The only way to get at any systematic trend in PL success rate relative to development route is to quantify it for a large number of players. But I can't really see how that can be done, given the fact that players are recruited to the PL at wildly varying stages of their development - and above all, because there is no real way to quantify expectation at recruitment. You can do this for, f.e., the NHL, because the development routes and recruitment channels are much fewer, and because the entry draft provides a handy point of reference for talent level and expectation at the same age for all players.

Lacking that, you basically end up with an anecdotal case ("just look at player x, y and z"), which is worse than nothing. You can source basically any assessment that way, and it's just confirmation bias galore.

With no sound methodology there's really not much you can say, other than there's no sure thing, there are challenges for everyone involved in transitioning from another league to the PL, and each player has to be assessed on his own.

Exactly. Anecdotally, I would say that PL transfers aren't better at the highest level, it could be true for below average teams but not for above average teams. Now, I could be wrong.

 

[Lentwood]

Can you quantify it or even give us a solid sample that showcases that?

Also Nkunku has played 28 continental games including a CL semifinal.

What do you mean 'can I quantify it'? Surely the idea that signing from the Premier League reduces the variables is widely accepted?

* No language/cultural challenges
* Generally no need to move away from family and friends
* No issues with weather/playing conditions
* No 'culture shock' associated with playing style(s) and/or physicality
* No issues with intensity of the schedule

On the subject of Nkunku, again, can I just clarify again that IF Nkunku was 21/22 right now and had a similar record, I'd be all for taking a gamble at the right price.

I think even though we've all been back and forth several times in this thread, we're not actually as far apart as it might appear. I am all for changing the profile of the player we target, I have said so multiple times across various threads.

I think we absolutely do need to be careful that we don't underestimate the difficulty of making the transition from the Eredivise/Bundesliga/Primera Liga etc...(or even La Liga, Ligue Un and Serie A) but we also absolutely should be looking at the best young players in these leagues.

What I remain sceptical about is that signing players at 24/25 from the Bundesliga or Eredivisie is going to be fruitful with respect unearthing elite talent. Sure, we might pick up a few useful players, or even better players than we have now, but we're not going to get the next Bale, Ronaldo, Rooney etc...by targeting players of that profile.

Again, if people want to have a proper discussion about our transfer policy, I am all for it.

 

[JPRouve]

What do you mean 'can I quantify it'? Surely the idea that signing from the Premier League reduces the variables is widely accepted?

* No language/cultural challenges
* Generally no need to move away from family and friends
* No issues with weather/playing conditions
* No 'culture shock' associated with playing style(s) and/or physicality
* No issues with intensity of the schedule

On the subject of Nkunku, again, can I just clarify again that IF Nkunku was 21/22 right now and had a similar record, I'd be all for taking a gamble at the right price.

I think even though we've all been back and forth several times in this thread, we're not actually as far apart as it might appear. I am all for changing the profile of the player we target, I have said so multiple times across various threads.

I think we absolutely do need to be careful that we don't underestimate the difficulty of making the transition from the Eredivise/Bundesliga/Primera Liga etc...(or even La Liga, Ligue Un and Serie A) but we also absolutely should be looking at the best young players in these leagues.

What I remain sceptical about is that signing players at 24/25 from the Bundesliga or Eredivisie is going to be fruitful with respect unearthing elite talent. Sure, we might pick up a few useful players, or even better players than we have now, but we're not going to get the next Bale, Ronaldo, Rooney etc...by targeting players of that profile.

Again, if people want to have a proper discussion about our transfer policy, I am all for it.

It means that beyond preconceptions, do you have numerical data that backup this idea?

 

[justsomebloke]

Exactly. Anecdotally, I would say that PL transfers aren't better at the highest level, it could be true for below average teams but not for above average teams. Now, I could be wrong.

There might be a couple of things that would contribute to that making sense. Since there is less uncertainty and hence less risk and hence a higher price relative to the quality of the player, the best PL players become really expensive. And additionally, many clubs are reluctant to sell such players to direct competitors. Hence, transfers between PL clubs of really top players are probably comparatively more difficult and rarer than transfers of lesser players. If you want a really top player (or top young talent), it's much more doable getting those from other leagues than it is to get them from another PL club. A big club may generally be able to get that kind of player from a smaller club, but smaller PL clubs rarely have that kind of player in the first place, and if they do they'll carry a huge price tag (Declan Rice!). In other words, there simply isn't much availability when it comes to recruiting top level talent from within the PL.

 

[Lentwood]

It means that beyond preconceptions, do you have numerical data that backup this idea?

What idea? That there are fewer variables in signing players from the Premier League?

I'm not sure what you're getting at...? A good Data scientist would understand the parameters and sources of their Data before they began to interrogate it.

It's not about saying, 'this Data is meaningless because it's from the Bundesliga', it's about recognising that the output was achieved under different conditions.

Like if you had to choose a car to race around a wet track. You might have 5 sets of Data for 5 different cars, four achieved on wet tracks and one on a dry tracks. The first thing you would do is note that the Data from the dry track is likely to be different/less directly relevant.

That's just normal. I genuinely don't understand what you mean by 'can you quantify there are fewer variables with numerical Data?'

 

[justsomebloke]

What do you mean 'can I quantify it'? Surely the idea that signing from the Premier League reduces the variables is widely accepted?

* No language/cultural challenges
* Generally no need to move away from family and friends
* No issues with weather/playing conditions
* No 'culture shock' associated with playing style(s) and/or physicality
* No issues with intensity of the schedule

On the subject of Nkunku, again, can I just clarify again that IF Nkunku was 21/22 right now and had a similar record, I'd be all for taking a gamble at the right price.

I think even though we've all been back and forth several times in this thread, we're not actually as far apart as it might appear. I am all for changing the profile of the player we target, I have said so multiple times across various threads.

I think we absolutely do need to be careful that we don't underestimate the difficulty of making the transition from the Eredivise/Bundesliga/Primera Liga etc...(or even La Liga, Ligue Un and Serie A) but we also absolutely should be looking at the best young players in these leagues.

What I remain sceptical about is that signing players at 24/25 from the Bundesliga or Eredivisie is going to be fruitful with respect unearthing elite talent. Sure, we might pick up a few useful players, or even better players than we have now, but we're not going to get the next Bale, Ronaldo, Rooney etc...by targeting players of that profile.

Again, if people want to have a proper discussion about our transfer policy, I am all for it.

You can make a perfectly reasonable argument why there are insecurities with a BL signing that you don't have with a PL signing. However, that doesn't automatically say something major about the risk. Also, it doesn't actually necessarily mean BL signings carry a significantly lower likelihood of meeting expectations than PL signings have. To answer that question, you'd have to find a way to compare how a big number of cases have fared, relative to some sort of measure of expectations such as cost.

Recruitment of top European talent to the NHL provides a case in point of how reality might be different to what you'd assume. You could make just the same kind of assumption for European players going to the NHL as you do above for BL players - adjustment to a different kind of game, new culture etc etc. If anything, the shift is much bigger for hockey (different ice surface size, profound differences in how the game is played and how the rule book is practised, different continent not just different country). And based on that, you could assume that Europeans would do better if they are brought over to play Canadian major junior or minor league hockey in NA prior to joining the NHL team that drafted them. But, they don't. In fact, European first round picks who just stayed in Europe to develop have a massively better track record than the prospects who went to NA to acclimatise to the North American game. In fact, they also have a better track record than North American first rounders who spent their whole lives in that system and culture. So it's not necessarily so clear cut.

The possible explanations for that empirical fact illuminates a couple of important points.

1. It may be that this is due to the European development system being better than the North American one at developing the top talent. Without going too much into detail, there are very fundamental differences between the two. The NA system is extremely competitive and focussed on a high number of games, in leagues that draw thousands of fans to games and have a strong media presence. European junior hockey is followed by almost no one, and there is a much bigger emphasis on practise over competetive games. However, the top talent will usually also get ice time at the senior level, where they play at a much higher level than Canadian Junior (if not the AHL). Takeaway point: While you can point to transtional issues increasing risk, there may be other, less visible factors that draw in the opposite direction.

2. Since we're comparing first round draft selections, it may simply be that the clubs tend to overestimate North American prospects and underestimate European prospects, so that the first round contains too many of the former and too few of the latter. The practical upshot of that could be that in actuality, european first rounders are more talented and promising on average than NA first rounders, and that this largely explains why they have a better success rate. If so, that is probably due to a faulty risk assessment. Ie - clubs overestimate the risk that a European won't come over, can't adjust etc. The key takeaway point here is that a risk assessment that is not soundly based actually leads to bad decisions. Some risk factors are more visible and more commonly acknowledged than others. That doesn't make them more real. If you make big decisions based only on those, you will make bad decisions.

So again - you've got to check against outcomes, to know if there is a bigger risk overall.

 

[Lentwood]

You can make a perfectly reasonable argument why there's more insecurity with a BL signing than with a PL signing. However, that doesn't automatically say something major about the risk. Also, it doesn't actually necessarily mean BL signings carry a significantly lower likelihood of meeting expectations than PL signings have. To answer that question, you'd have to find a way to compare how a big number of cases have fared, relative to some sort of measure of expectations such as cost.

Recruitment of top European talent to the NHL provides a case in point of how reality might be different to what you'd assume. You could make just the same kind of assumption for European players going to the NHL as you do above for BL players - adjustment to a different kind of game, new culture etc etc. If anything, the shift is much bigger for hockey (different ice surface size, profound differences in how the game is played and how the rule book is practised, different continent not just different country). And based on that, you could assume that Europeans would do better if they are brought over to play Canadian major junior or minor league hockey in NA prior to joining the NHL team that drafted them. But, they don't. In fact, European first round picks who just stayed in Europe to develop have a massively better track record than the prospects who went to NA to acclimatise to the North American game. In fact, they also have a better track record than North American first rounders who spent their whole lives in that system and culture. So it's not necessarily so clear cut. Again, you have to check against outcome.

Yes but as you rightly say, no such metric exists for assessing how a player might make the transition - hence my point, no transition equals lower risk, at least in theory.

Now, the flipside to that is, SAF more often than not used to sign known quantities from the Premier League because we had the luxury of knowing a fair proportion of the clubs in the PL had to sell players to break-even in the 90s/00s. If you look at SAFs signings, the majority were from British clubs, or at least, the majority of the big signings.

However, we all acknowledge that can't be our approach now. After the last two TV deals, Premier League clubs no longer rely on selling players to be economically viable.

So I 100% agree with the idea that we have to now have a much more progressive, riskier, more creative approach to transfers. You can't just wait for players like Ferdinand to go from West Ham to Leeds or Carrick to go from West Ham to Spurs and then sign them, because the cost is astronomical.

However, a more progressive, riskier approach to transfers still means managing that risk. I repeat the point I have made through this entire thread, which just gets ignored - signing players who are 21/22 from the Bundesliga (and other European leagues) is one thing, and I advocate this approach. However, personally, as a general rule, I would be suspicious of 24/25+ and their potential to be elite.

 

[JPRouve]

What idea? That there are fewer variables in signing players from the Premier League?

I'm not sure what you're getting at...? A good Data scientist would understand the parameters and sources of their Data before they began to interrogate it.

It's not about saying, 'this Data is meaningless because it's from the Bundesliga', it's about recognising that the output was achieved under different conditions.

Like if you had to choose a car to race around a wet track. You might have 5 sets of Data for 5 different cars, four achieved on wet tracks and one on a dry tracks. The first thing you would do is note that the Data from the dry track is likely to be different/less directly relevant.

That's just normal. I genuinely don't understand what you mean by 'can you quantify there are fewer variables with numerical Data?'

Let me give you an example. You championed Neto over Nkunku and I would assume that to you Neto is an obvious safer bet but here is the problem, from an evaluation standpoint and risk evaluation.

Neto plays for a midtable team with midtable expectations, he also has next to no experience at the higher level which is continental competitions, he has played roughly 400 minutes. On the other end you have Nkunku who plays for a top of the table club, with top of the table expectations, he has also played 2000 minutes of continental competitions.

This is pretty rough but one has a better idea about Nkunku's place in the football world than Pedro Neto. We have no idea about how the latter would adapt when asked to play for a team with higher expectations, we have little idea about how he would perform in CL/EL on a consistent basis and we don't even have an idea about how he had adapted to life in the UK and whether Nkunku would adapt faster.

And there is a transition, the fact that you consider that there is no transition is a massive mistake here.

 

[Lentwood]

Let me give you an example. You championed Neto over Nkunku and I would assume that to you Neto is an obvious safer bet but here is the problem, from an evaluation standpoint and risk evaluation.

Neto plays for a midtable team with midtable expectations, he also has next to no experience at the higher level which is continental competitions, he has played roughly 400 minutes. On the other end you have Nkunku who plays for a top of the table club, with top of the table expectations, he has also played 2000 minutes of continental competitions.

This is pretty rough but one has a better idea about Nkunku's place in the football world than Pedro Neto. We have no idea about how the latter would adapt when asked to play for a team with higher expectations, we have little idea about how he would perform in CL/EL on a consistent basis and we don't even have an idea about how he had adapted to life in the UK and whether Nkunku would adapt faster.

And there is a transition, the fact that you consider that there is no transition is a massive mistake here.

Yes but I agree that there's still a risk with Neto. Amongst other things, he has barely kicked a ball for 12-months, who knows how he might recover from his injury? As you say, how would he cope playing for a side who have most of the ball and don't play on the counter, like Wolves?

The difference for me is that Neto is 22, and in terms of his career trajectory, you can write off the last year as he was injured. I have seen Neto play many times, so I'm not guessing at his attributes. I am not necessarily accusing you of doing this, but whenever I see these long lists of players we 'must-sign', I am always sceptical about how many full 90-minute games the poster has watched featuring that player. YouTube videos and comparing players on FBREF is not an adequate method of Scouting.

I'm sure though, we all agree we should be looking at the next Lewandowski, the next Gundogan, the next Kane, the next Kante etc....I think personally to find those players, you need to be looking at players age 18-23 (max).

That's why I would feel more comfortable with the risk of taking Neto at 22. Likewise though, to take another example of a Wolves player we are linked to regularly in Reuben Neves, personally I think this would be a bad signing. He is 25, and he isn't good enough at 25 to suggest he can be any better than 'good'.

 

[JPRouve]

Yes but I agree that there's still a risk with Neto. Amongst other things, he has barely kicked a ball for 12-months, who knows how he might recover from his injury? As you say, how would he cope playing for a side who have most of the ball and don't play on the counter, like Wolves?

The difference for me is that Neto is 22, and in terms of his career trajectory, you can write off the last year as he was injured. I have seen Neto play many times, so I'm not guessing at his attributes. I am not necessarily accusing you of doing this, but whenever I see these long lists of players we 'must-sign', I am always sceptical about how many full 90-minute games the poster has watched featuring that player. YouTube videos and comparing players on FBREF is not an adequate method of Scouting.

I'm sure though, we all agree we should be looking at the next Lewandowski, the next Gundogan, the next Kane, the next Kante etc....I think personally to find those players, you need to be looking at players age 18-23 (max).

That's why i would feel more comfortable with the risk of taking Neto at 22

So your point is based around a 18 months difference? You realize that Nkunku was playing at a higher level with higher expectations at 21?

 

[Lentwood]

So your point is based around a 18 months difference? You realize that Nkunku was playing at a higher level with higher expectations at 21?

But you insist on taking everything I say as if I am saying 'these are hard and fast rules and there are no exceptions'.

Like, for example, I mentioned the fact Nkunku only has the two caps for France, and suddenly I get a load of nonsense replies from people going on about how International caps isn't a good measure of a players ability. Of course it isn't, in and of itself, but it's something I would certainly be mindful of when looking very high-level at the profile of a player.

Likewise, age is definitely something that would make up my initial assessment of the profile of a player. How much improvement do I believe a player might find at 24, almost 25?

Going back to my point about horses, if I see a 5yo horse with 25 career starts suddenly post a much-improved performance, I ignore it. If I see a 3yo with four/five career starts suddenly post a massive improvement I definitely take note, because the horse is still developing mentally and physically. It could be "real" improvement.

Same with footballers, again, it's not about saying, "well, he's 24 so can't improve' but you have to have some idea of the general trends and profiles.

 

[justsomebloke]

Yes but as you rightly say, no such metric exists for assessing how a player might make the transition - hence my point, no transition equals lower risk, at least in theory.

Now, the flipside to that is, SAF more often than not used to sign known quantities from the Premier League because we had the luxury of knowing a fair proportion of the clubs in the PL had to sell players to break-even in the 90s/00s. If you look at SAFs signings, the majority were from British clubs, or at least, the majority of the big signings.

However, we all acknowledge that can't be our approach now. After the last two TV deals, Premier League clubs no longer rely on selling players to be economically viable.

So I 100% agree with the idea that we have to now have a much more progressive, riskier, more creative approach to transfers. You can't just wait for players like Ferdinand to go from West Ham to Leeds or Carrick to go from West Ham to Spurs and then sign them, because the cost is astronomical.

However, a more progressive, riskier approach to transfers still means managing that risk. I repeat the point I have made through this entire thread, which just gets ignored - signing players who are 21/22 from the Bundesliga (and other European leagues) is one thing, and I advocate this approach. However, personally, as a general rule, I would be suspicious of 24/25+ and their potential to be elite.

Well, not quite - transition is a known risk for BL transfers, but that doesn't necessarily mean there is an overall higher risk with transfers from the BL.

But in any case, as you say, it's really no longer viable for a top PL team to use lesser PL clubs as their main talent pipeline.

Your last point there requires some sort of empirical underpinning too.

But you insist on taking everything I say as if I am saying 'these are hard and fast rules and there are no exceptions'.

I'm pretty sure he's not talking about hard and fast rules with no exceptions. There is no such thing. The things he's calling for is what you'd need exactly for "a general rule", as I assume you mean it; in effect something that gives a significantly higher likelihood of a certain outcome.

 

[JPRouve]

But you insist on taking everything I say as if I am saying 'these are hard and fast rules and there are no exceptions'.

Like, for example, I mentioned the fact Nkunku only has the two caps for France, and suddenly I get a load of nonsense replies from people going on about how International caps isn't a good measure of a players ability. Of course it isn't, in and of itself, but it's something I would certainly be mindful of when looking very high-level at the profile of a player.

Likewise, age is definitely something that would make up my initial assessment of the profile of a player. How much improvement do I believe a player might find at 24, almost 25?

Going back to my point about horses, if I see a 5yo horse with 25 career starts suddenly post a much-improved performance, I ignore it. If I see a 3yo with four/five career starts suddenly post a massive improvement I definitely take note, because the horse is still developing mentally and physically. It could be "real" improvement.

Same with footballers, again, it's not about saying, "well, he's 24 so can't improve' but you have to have some idea of the general trends and profiles.

But you are treating them as hard and fast rules, if you didn't you wouldn't be arguing for Neto against Nkunku. In fact you wouldn't be arguing in a thread about a player that you have never seen, the only reason you do is because you believe in some hard and fast rules. And 24 years old players are still developing, players reach their peaks during their late 20s not the early 20s.

To make it simple, you are comparing two developing players with one that is more advanced than the other and has been far better during the past 3 seasons. Your argument would make total sense if we were comparing players that are at a similar level, playing in a similar environment but we are not. If you were making the same point about Foden versus Nkunku I would be with you but you are not, you are applying your rules as if they were a main factor when they aren't.

 

[Lentwood]

But you are treating them as hard and fast rules, if you didn't you wouldn't be arguing for Neto against Nkunku. In fact you wouldn't be arguing in a thread about a player that you have never seen, the only reason you do is because you believe in some hard and fast rules. And 24 years old players are still developing, players reach their peaks during their late 20s not the early 20s.

To make it simple, you are comparing two developing players with one that is more advanced than the other and has been far better during the past 3 seasons. Your argument would make total sense if we were comparing players that are at a similar level, playing in a similar environment but we are not. If you were making the same point about Foden versus Nkunku I would be with you but you are not, you are applying your rules as if they were a main factor when they aren't.

OK, well, I'll add a quick conclusion then and then I can't keep getting distracted by this because it's Monday and I have work to do

You are right that I should not just dismiss players I haven't seen play. However, I'm not sure that's the smoking gun people seem to think it is, since I clearly say in my very first post on this subject that I haven't seen him play, and my issue is with his profile (i.e. age/lack of international experience/difficulty in transitioning from the Bundesliga)

I am still of the opinion people are too quick to dismiss the quality of some of the players we do have and they underestimate how easy it might be to replace them. Shaw, for example, is England's starting LB. People write him off and call him a bad player, when I just don't believe this is the case, and I think we'll have a much harder job finding 'better' than people seem to believe.

I am sticking to my guns on saying that profile is important. I think we all agree that United need to start to target a different sort of player, absolutely no issue with that at all. I also agree we need to look at the Bundesliga, the Eredivisie, the Primera Liga etc...because we no longer have the luxury of waiting until a player 'proves themselves' at a bigger club before making a move, as we had in the past. However, personally, I remain sceptical about players of 24/25 being able to kick-on and reach that elite level.

As ever, any player we do sign I will get behind fully and give them time before judging them.

 

[justsomebloke]

If you want a suggestion for a simplified version of a viable empirical check, here it is:

- Pick the 50 or so best PL players who aren't EFL academy products.
- Identify:
1. At what age they were brought to England
2. From which league they were brought
3. How much they cost then
4. What they are valued at now (adjusting for contract situation etc)

- Then look for trends.

 

[JPRouve]

OK, well, I'll add a quick conclusion then and then I can't keep getting distracted by this because it's Monday and I have work to do

You are right that I should not just dismiss players I haven't seen play. However, I'm not sure that's the smoking gun people seem to think it is, since I clearly say in my very first post on this subject that I haven't seen him play, and my issue is with his profile (i.e. age/lack of international experience/difficulty in transitioning from the Bundesliga)

I am still of the opinion people are too quick to dismiss the quality of some of the players we do have and they underestimate how easy it might be to replace them. Shaw, for example, is England's starting LB. People write him off and call him a bad player, when I just don't believe this is the case, and I think we'll have a much harder job finding 'better' than people seem to believe.

I am sticking to my guns on saying that profile is important. I think we all agree that United need to start to target a different sort of player, absolutely no issue with that at all. I also agree we need to look at the Bundesliga, the Eredivisie, the Primera Liga etc...because we no longer have the luxury of waiting until a player 'proves themselves' at a bigger club before making a move, as we had in the past. However, personally, I remain sceptical about players of 24/25 being able to kick-on and reach that elite level.

As ever, any player we do sign I will get behind fully and give them time before judging them.

Profile is important but focusing on the correct attributes in order to build a profile is even more important. The attributes that you used are useless because international experience depends on your nation strength and the depth of your position, at his age it also relies on whether you are an early bloomer or not, the transition to Bundesliga is also problematic since you can't quantify it and you can't apply to all players without looking at their attributes more in depth which require to actually watch them play.

 

[Giggsforever]

So you want us to be signing elite players and come up with that list? Actually made me laugh out loud.

Why exactly is Pedro Neto a better option than others?

Because Pedro Neto is one of the most exciting young players in the world. He had speed, determination, works hard and on top of that he is creative, can dribble and has the right attitude. He is on a higher level than most other players we are looking at, including Nkunku and Antony. The worry with Neto, is the knee injury that has kept him out for close to a year. I don't know if a split kneecap can hamper you in the future or weaken the knee.

 

[do.ob]

Your entire logic is ridiculously flawed, you point towards the inherent risk of signing players from abroad without knowing how significant it actually is and then you suggest a player with FOUR major risk factors that Nkunku doesn't have (major injury, switching from mid table to top team, international experience, having failed to make it at Lazio). But you're not even really mentioning them, let alone trying to quantify them so they could be weighed up against Nkunku's risk factors.


It's just picking stats in the most arbitrary way to support your lazy prejudices.

 

[CraftySoAndSo]

Haven't been in this thread for a few days so reading the last few pages have been a blast. I agree with what @sifi36 said, it's not a coincidence that teams like Liverpool and Southampton have had better success at recruiting players from places like the Bundesliga. They play in systems very similar to those types of leagues so it's an easier transition for players to make compared to joining teams like United. Just because a player doesn't adapt straight away doesn't mean he won't though, it might just take a little bit longer. But these days the fans, media and pundits are very quick to judge and a lot of people have already made up their mind on a player after only 6 months. Plus the cut throat nature football as well means players are afforded less time to settle and questions are asked too soon which could result further loss of confidence which only compounds things.

It's easy to blast continental players coming to the Premier League and not being able to adapt. But it's not too long ago that despite the leagues money the top 4 were regularly falling short in the Champions League. And a big component of that was that the league hadn't adapted to a modern pressing system that their European counter parts were playing and were getting caught out. Poch was one of the first to bring it to the league with Southampton and not long after Klopp and Pep joined as well and England started catching up with Europe. Because Pep and Klopp play a very continental style it's easier for these players to adapt quicker than if they join us for example. For the last 6 years under Jose and Ole we've had a more low block counter attack orientated style and then sign players from places like Dortmund and don't use the system they excelled in.

So while i was more wary of signing players from the Bundesliga and Eredivise under Jose or Ole i have no such concerns with Ten Hag. Because like Pep and Klopp his style is more European which will make it easier for players to adapt and thrive in. Look at Fred for example, for his first few years here we played him deeper despite him playing differently for Shakhtar and Brazil. Ralf came in and has pushed him higher up and has been one of our better players this half of the season. But because we misused him so badly to start with most people had deemed him not good enough despite not playing to his strengths. But if we had him higher up from the start i guarantee most people would hold a different view of him. Yes our recruitment hasn't been great recently but we've also misused so many players as well and then wonder why they go elsewhere and do well.

 

[do.ob]

@CraftySoAndSo
Yes, at least for players from big clubs in top leagues it's all about profile: why were they good at their previous clubs, what is their profile/role and can the buying club create a similar context for them.
If you don't understand why a player performed well at his previous club and you don't set him up to get the best out of him, then you're heading for disappointment, not matter if he joined from England or elsewhere.

 

[antk]

I'm sure though, we all agree we should be looking at the next Lewandowski, the next Gundogan, the next Kane, the next Kante etc....I think personally to find those players, you need to be looking at players age 18-23 (max).

Lewandowski moved to Bayern at 26. Kanté moved to Leicester at 24. Gundogan moved to City at 25. Kane never even moved. Literally none of the players you're talking about fit your own criteria in terms of player recruitment.

 

[JPRouve]

Because Pedro Neto is one of the most exciting young players in the world. He had speed, determination, works hard and on top of that he is creative, can dribble and has the right attitude. He is on a higher level than most other players we are looking at, including Nkunku and Antony. The worry with Neto, is the knee injury that has kept him out for close to a year. I don't know if a split kneecap can hamper you in the future or weaken the knee.

What makes him on a higher level than these players?

 

[Lentwood]

Lewandowski moved to Bayern at 26. Kanté moved to Leicester at 24. Gundogan moved to City at 25. Kane never even moved. Literally none of the players you're talking about fit your own criteria in terms of player recruitment.

You haven't read any of the previous 50+ posts have you....

It's not about having hard and fast 'rules' for recruitment, but I do question why Nkunku is almost 25, hasn't been signed by a 'big' club and hasn't had much game-time for France. That's literally it, that's were all of this came from.

Lewandowski and Gundogan were both regular internationals and high-performers in the Champions League when they made their moves - plus both played for Dortmund, a team I'd already consider to be 'high-level'.

In fact, in October 2015, I said this about Gundogan....

I would say we still need,

* 2 x Attackers - we can't be playing Wayne Rooney if we want to launch a proper title challenge. Nearly everything bounces 10 yards off his shin and when he does actually manage to get the ball under control it takes him so long to get his head up and find a pass that it slows our attacks down to a crawl. Martial looks great but we can't play a whole season with just one recognised striker.

Solution - Griezmann is a no-brainer, Utd fan, reasonable release clause and can play anywhere across the front. The second attacker I am not so sure about but for me I would say Mane would be a good option. Absolutely rapid, strong and very direct, should be available for around £25m. Neither of these players are "9's", but both are versatile enough to play anywhere across the front 4.

* 1 x CM - Carrick is 35, Schweinsteiger 31, Herrera is better deployed further forward imo. I would say we should be looking to sign a CM now rather than being forced into potentially making panic buys in a season or two when we realise we have left it to late.

Solution - I would like Gundogan, would appear to fit in very well with "the philosophy" but would he leave Dortmund? I also like Koke at Atletico, every time I have seen him he has been unbelievably good.

Of course Kante is an outlier, but there will always be outliers. Nobody has ever said for one moment there wouldn't be. Kante also cost Leicester about £500K, so if we're going to take risks at that price, I am all for it.

 

[JPRouve]

You haven't read any of the previous 50+ posts have you....

It's not about having hard and fast 'rules' for recruitment, but I do question why Nkunku is almost 25, hasn't been signed by a 'big' club and hasn't had much game-time for France. That's literally it, that's were all of this came from.

Lewandowski and Gundogan were both regular internationals and high-performers in the Champions League when they made their moves - plus both played for Dortmund, a team I'd already consider to be 'high-level'.

In fact, in October 2015, I said this about Gundogan....



Of course Kante is an outlier, but there will always be outliers. Nobody has ever said for one moment there wouldn't be. Kante also cost Leicester about £500K, so if we're going to take risks at that price, I am all for it.

Nkunku comes from PSG, he started at a big club and moved to a CL club for game time and due to PSG needing FFP money. Also Leipzig are at Dortmund's level.

 

[Lentwood]

Nkunku comes from PSG, he started at a big club and moved to a CL club for game time and due to PSG needing FFP money. Also Leipzig are at Dortmund's level.

I would tend to disagree on that. Klopp's Dortmund where on another level to this RB Leipzig side, in my opinion of course.

 

[do.ob]

I would tend to disagree on that. Klopp's Dortmund where on another level to this RB Leipzig side, in my opinion of course.

And as we know you have formulated that nuanced opinion by never having watched them at all.

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

I would tend to disagree on that. Klopp's Dortmund where on another level to this RB Leipzig side, in my opinion of course.

For 2 seasons.

They managed to win the BL when Bayern were faltering a bit. In Europe, they reached the final whereas Leipzig reached the semi, in the league, both are top 4 sides who finish a distance behind Bayern when they managed to finish 2nd. The best Klopp Dortmund team were better than the current RBL side but when we look objectively at their league placement and European performance, one isn’t ‘clearly on another level’ to the other.

And for someone who admits to watching very little football outside of the PL, you do offer your opinion on other leagues in a very confident manner.

 

[JPRouve]

I would tend to disagree on that. Klopp's Dortmund where on another level to this RB Leipzig side, in my opinion of course.

They are the same caliber of clubs, they target the same caliber of players. You made a point about the status of the club Nkunku is playing for, as if playing for Leipzig was an indictment. Dortmund played extremely well for a couple of seasons but it doesn't mean that the players they targetted or had were of a different caliber to the players Leipzig sign or have.

 

[CraftySoAndSo]

@CraftySoAndSo
Yes, at least for players from big clubs in top leagues it's all about profile: why were they good at their previous clubs, what is their profile/role and can the buying club create a similar context for them.
If you don't understand why a player performed well at his previous club and you don't set him up to get the best out of him, then you're heading for disappointment, not matter if he joined from England or elsewhere.

Yes it can happen with an English player or joining from an English club as well. But this thread is about Nkunku and i'm a bit tired of the narrative of if a player comes to England and fails it's because of one of two things. One is the player can't physically or mentally cope with the demands and standards of the Premier League. Or two is that the player isn't that good and only looked good in an "inferior" league.

But very rarely do people look deeper and think maybe the transfer was doomed to fail from the get go if he isn't utilized correctly. Yes good players can adapt to different systems but your taking a player who's high on confidence and thriving in a set system then asking him to change. It's easier to find a player who's thriving in a system similar to the one this team is playing or wants to start implementing.

 

[do.ob]

They are the same caliber of clubs, they target the same caliber of players. You made a point about the status of the club Nkunku is playing for, as if playing for Leipzig was an indictment. Dortmund played extremely well for a couple of seasons but it doesn't mean that the players they targetted or had were of a different caliber to the players Leipzig sign or have.

I wouldn't call them exactly similar

But it's close enough that one should have to explain the distinction they are trying to make. Not to mention that bringing up playing for Dortmund as some form of guarantee for a future club is not without irony at a Man Utd board.

 

[JPRouve]

I wouldn't call them exactly similar

But it's close enough that one should have to explain the distinction they are trying to mention. Not to mention that bringing up playing for Dortmund as some form of guarantee for a future club is not without irony at a Man Utd board.

Of course, they are not similar. But if one was to create tiers in Bundesliga over the past 5 seasons, I would have Bayern as tier 1, Dortmund/Leipzig in tier 2 and after it's a wild mix that includes Leverkusen, gladbach and a couple of other clubs in tier 3

 

[do.ob]

Of course, they are not similar. But if one was to create tiers in Bundesliga over the past 5 seasons, I would have Bayern as tier 1, Dortmund/Leipzig in tier 2 and after it's a wild mix that includes Leverkusen, gladbach and a couple of other clubs in tier 3

That is of course correct.