CIES Football Observatory: Transfer Value Increases

Damien

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http://www.football-observatory.com/IMG/sites/b5wp/2017/197/en/


United players mentioned (by value increases):
Romelu Lukaku - €158.5M (+55.8M)
Marcus Rashford - €98.6M (+26.8M)
Paul Pogba - €153.1M (+22.1M)
Anthony Martial - €82.2M (+13.3M)
Nemanja Matic - €37.6M (+10.6M)
 

Footballsaurus

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Lukaku is probably worth more than 150 mil. I think he is closer to 250 mil. You don't get that kind of quality with that size. His size just opens space. He is probably worth more than Lewondowski and on same level as Messi/Ronaldo (when they were 24). He still has a lot of time to improve.

Ronaldo/Messi at 24 versus Lukaku at 24? Who is better? Lukaku should be worth a Neymar.
 

TwoSheds

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Lukaku is probably worth more than 150 mil. I think he is closer to 250 mil. You don't get that kind of quality with that size. His size just opens space. He is probably worth more than Lewondowski and on same level as Messi/Ronaldo (when they were 24). He still has a lot of time to improve.

Ronaldo/Messi at 24 versus Lukaku at 24? Who is better? Lukaku should be worth a Neymar.
Is joke?
 

Gopher Brown

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They have a fancy name to mask the fact they're just pulling numbers out of their arses?
 

roonster09

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They are a crap site with useless numbers. Their reading was always bizzare, I never took them seriously since they named Rojo as among the best CBs in the world when he was average for us, adding Smalling, Rojo in top 5 CBs at that time. Then they followed it up with Jones as the best U23 CB when he was always injured. Most fecked up is naming Milner as the best LB last season.

So whatever they are doing, their studies are crap.
 

Damien

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Matic only costs us €27.6M?
No, that is just what they valued him at in July.
 

ti vu

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Just compare players within same teams.

Alli is valued as almost twice of Eriksen :houllier: (Eriksen for <100m is unrealistically undervalued while being good value for the buying club)

Mendy is value less than Kyle Walker

Salah Firmino are valued more than Mane, Coutinho...
 
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padr81

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Clowns. Otamendi worth €70m, just €20m more than Bonucci then, that list is trustworthy and useful and accurate alright...

But wait theres more. John Stones is worth 21, yes 21 Vincent Kompany's.
 

Bestie07

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Lukaku is probably worth more than 150 mil. I think he is closer to 250 mil. You don't get that kind of quality with that size. His size just opens space. He is probably worth more than Lewondowski and on same level as Messi/Ronaldo (when they were 24). He still has a lot of time to improve.

Ronaldo/Messi at 24 versus Lukaku at 24? Who is better? Lukaku should be worth a Neymar.
No
 

Footballsaurus

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Yes, it's a sensitive subject but if we compare Ronaldo at 09/10 season at Real and Lukaku at 17/18 season at MU it questions your point:

  • Ronaldo: 26 goals, 7 assists, 2490 minutes, 29 apps
  • Lukaku: 7, 1, 630, 7
Ronaldo had a goal approximately 95.45 minutes, Lukaku has had a goal approximately every 90 minutes.

Ronaldo had an assist every 355 minutes, Lukaku had had an assist every 630 minites. This can improve for Lukaku as he gets more assists.

Maybe Messi is a reach to compare to Lukaku, but I think Lukaku is a level below Messi, but a little worse than Ronaldo. However, keep in mind Lukaku is performing in EPL. Hard to compare to Messi. Not discounting Messi but it's not apples to apples comparison.

Another factor Messi/Ronaldo were better groomed. Lukaku could make that jump if he stays in MU and develops. However, at 24 certainly Ronaldo and Messi had CL trophies already. But I still think he is worth 250 mil even though not at Ronaldo or Messi level.
 

Martial

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Ronaldo and Messi had already won the Ballon d'Or by 24 you absolute maniac.
 

AgentP

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Yes, it's a sensitive subject but if we compare Ronaldo at 09/10 season at Real and Lukaku at 17/18 season at MU it questions your point:

  • Ronaldo: 26 goals, 7 assists, 2490 minutes, 29 apps
  • Lukaku: 7, 1, 630, 7
Ronaldo had a goal approximately 95.45 minutes, Lukaku has had a goal approximately every 90 minutes.

Ronaldo had an assist every 355 minutes, Lukaku had had an assist every 630 minites. This can improve for Lukaku as he gets more assists.

Maybe Messi is a reach to compare to Lukaku, but I think Lukaku is a level below Messi, but a little worse than Ronaldo. However, keep in mind Lukaku is performing in EPL. Hard to compare to Messi. Not discounting Messi but it's not apples to apples comparison.

Another factor Messi/Ronaldo were better groomed. Lukaku could make that jump if he stays in MU and develops. However, at 24 certainly Ronaldo and Messi had CL trophies already. But I still think he is worth 250 mil even though not at Ronaldo or Messi level.
It's not a sensitive subject at all! Messi and Ronaldo are legends of the game. Ronaldo won the Ballon D'or at 22 and won the PL and CL scoring 42 goals. Messi scored 90+ goals in a single year when he was 24 and on the way to winning 4 Ballon D'ors in a row.
 

Footballsaurus

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It's not a sensitive subject at all! Messi and Ronaldo are legends of the game. Ronaldo won the Ballon D'or at 22 and won the PL and CL scoring 42 goals. Messi scored 90+ goals in a single year when he was 24 and on the way to winning 4 Ballon D'ors in a row.
Ronaldo and Messi had already won the Ballon d'Or by 24 you absolute maniac.
Regarding stats, those are earliest I could find on Ronaldo. I need the minutes played per season. Again, hard to compare La Liga to EPL. I just compared to Ronaldo as Messi was a reach. There are what ... 30 games left? If Lukaku scores more than one on a couple games and at least one on remaining he can get 42 goals (maybe more?) this season. Again, not trying to discredit Messi/Ronaldo acheivment as GOAT, just seeing how good Lukaku can be. But he is worth more than 150 mil.
 

Revan

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http://www.football-observatory.com/IMG/pdf/note01en.pdf

When your statistical tests gives you numbers such as p < 0,0000, I suspect something is wrong. It usually is
Fair point. And to be fair, basing all of this in a feature engineered linear regression (in 2017) is a bit pointless. Not saying that linear regression is useless (it is differently a very useful tool), but the entire process looks very simplistic to me.
 

Ish

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It's not a sensitive subject at all! Messi and Ronaldo are legends of the game. Ronaldo won the Ballon D'or at 22 and won the PL and CL scoring 42 goals. Messi scored 90+ goals in a single year when he was 24 and on the way to winning 4 Ballon D'ors in a row.
Yep, not a chance Rom is worth a Neymar, let alone at/or close to the level of CR/Messi, FFS.
 

macheda14

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Regarding stats, those are earliest I could find on Ronaldo. I need the minutes played per season. Again, hard to compare La Liga to EPL. I just compared to Ronaldo as Messi was a reach. There are what ... 30 games left? If Lukaku scores more than one on a couple games and at least one on remaining he can get 42 goals (maybe more?) this season. Again, not trying to discredit Messi/Ronaldo acheivment as GOAT, just seeing how good Lukaku can be. But he is worth more than 150 mil.
Is joke?
 

Footballsaurus

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See my previous reply. Lukaku can walk onto any team in the world and it would be an instant improvement. His size and height makes him also perfect when leveraging set peices. He is a Neymar level player and is underrated.
 

whatwha

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See my previous reply. Lukaku can walk onto any team in the world and it would be an instant improvement. His size and height makes him also perfect when leveraging set peices. He is a Neymar level player and is underrated.
:houllier:
 

Footballsaurus

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