Climate Change | UN Report: Code Red for humanity

Buster15

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I know that anthropogenic climate change supporters believe in a greenhouse effect they say warms earth's surface by 32C, on average, above what it'd be without greenhouse gases in it's atmosphere. Where is the empirical validation of this claim? I want to believe. I really do. But I also want to see the evidence you, so clearly, believe in, which, for some reason, no one ever showed me. Instead they keep making fake predictions of eco-apocalypse, which never happen.

At least 79 people or groups made such claims. 31 of these apocalyptic predictions are still due. 4 of the apocalyptic predictions are by the IPCC. 3 of which are due; 1 expired without happening.

The definition of apocalyptic is in the paper I cited in my recent post. The full paper is easily found on the Internet by one skilled in the art of searching for such stuff.
Empirical validation??
You do understand the meaning of empirical I take it.
 

nimic

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That view makes you an idiotic climate change denier.
Interesting source, by the way. Here's from the Wikipedia article on the author:

Easterbrook gave a speech at the 2006 Geological Society of America annual meeting, in which he stated:

"If the cycles continue as in the past, the current warm cycle should end soon and global temperatures should cool slightly until about 2035, then warm about 0.5°C from ~2035 to ~2065, and cool slightly until 2100. The total increase in global warming for the century should be ~0.3 °C, rather than the catastrophic warming of 3-6°C (4-11°F) predicted by the IPCC."[3]
So no, @Buster15, I think it's safe to say Mark doesn't understand the word "empirical".
 

Cheimoon

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Only if you believe the media. If you believe objective research, you'll know your kids are living at the safest, heathiest environment in human history. Even with COVID, it's safer for them than 20 years ago. As the lot of humanity improves with rising human development index, and human lifespan increases, people become more paranoid about invisible, in tangible threats they can't see, touch, or experience. Paradox?
No, just both true. Socioeconomic circumstances, hygiene, and medicine have improved, and so humanity on average is much better off today than some centuries ago. (Despite this progress having affected regions of the Earth unequally.)

In the meantime, we have started impacting the Earth's climate in a way that, without mitigation and adaptation ASAP, changes currently underway will exacerbate and then endanger areas that are currently perfectly fine for habitation and agriculture.

Both true, no paradox in sight. Just different things. Not unrelated though, as industrialization is an important factor in the improvement of humanity's plight and in climate change. If you want to use a clever term, I'd go with irony.

Also, yes, the Little Ice Age also was very hard on humanity. But that one we didn't cause ourselves. (Except if reforestation in the Americas due to the decimation of Indigenous populations played an important role - which has been proposed.) One way or another, here also, the Little Ice Age and global warming can both be catastrophes.

(Yes, I know he's banned.)
 

utdalltheway

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It’s depressing to see people in my area that don’t seem to care a jot about fuel efficiency for example. They’ll keep buying their F-150 trucks and large SUVs, not to mention all the muscle cars that substitute for a real dick.
I don’t people by and large will change their consumerism to help the planet.

I’ll do my little bit, but I haven’t gone full bore. I still drive a petrol/hybrid everyday.
My life and habits are basically unchanged and it’s probably because I’d feel I’m the only sucker trying to help.
 

nickm

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How ironic that you claim man made climate change is a hoax because some predictions weren’t 100% correct and then link to a book by someone who’s predictions and claims have been completely contradicted by temperature data.

“That year he also wrote: “In a nutshell, in 2001 I put my reputation on the line and published my predictions for entering a global cooling cycle about 2007 (plus or minus three to five years), based on past glacial, ice core, and other data ... If the present cooling trend continues, the [United Nations climate change] reports will have been the biggest farce in the history of science.”

So, what happened?
According to NOAA, the following year, 2009, was the fifth warmest year on record, 2010 tied for the warmest, then 2011 and 2012 were relatively cool at the 11th and 10th warmest years. When the data was in for 2013, it was the fourth warmest year. The years 2014, 2015 and 2016 were all progressively ranked warmest on record.”

But that cooling period will be coming any time now, surely?
Well, that was brutal. Good work.
 
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nickm

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Only if you believe the media. If you believe objective research, you'll know your kids are living at the safest, heathiest environment in human history. Even with COVID, it's safer for them than 20 years ago. As the lot of humanity improves with rising human development index, and human lifespan increases, people become more paranoid about invisible, in tangible threats they can't see, touch, or experience. Paradox?
No paradox, it's obvious. The richer we get, the safer we get... And the more resources we consume and co2 we emit in the process. Until the safety we buy becomes overwhelmed by the mess we've created.
 

Buster15

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It’s depressing to see people in my area that don’t seem to care a jot about fuel efficiency for example. They’ll keep buying their F-150 trucks and large SUVs, not to mention all the muscle cars that substitute for a real dick.
I don’t people by and large will change their consumerism to help the planet.

I’ll do my little bit, but I haven’t gone full bore. I still drive a petrol/hybrid everyday.
My life and habits are basically unchanged and it’s probably because I’d feel I’m the only sucker trying to help.
You are right.
It is depressing. And so easy to feel, as I often do, rather annoyed at those who act as if they really don't care. And overwhelmed by the scale of man made climate change.
As someone recently said, humans have become conditioned to think only in the short term. And see climate change as over the horizon, or have zero interest in the future of humanity.

But what I am impressed with is that you don't think that way and you are trying to do your bit.
And remember, each and everyone of us doing their bit really does make a difference.
Just think of that young girl in Sweden. By doing something, Gretta has mobilised an army of young people who ARE determined to make us all take notice.

I was waiting outside the pharmacy yesterday. And the weather was quite warm. There were 2 cars parked with their engines running. Presumably for the air conditioning.
I got fed up and went up to one car. The lady opened her window.
So I asked her why she had the engine running. Expecting some abuse, she apologised and switched it off. So I did the same to the next car and the man switched his engine off and gave me the thumbs up. He then opened his window and said that he just wasn't thinking, which was fair enough.
Just a tiny thing. But as they say, every little helps.
 

Cheimoon

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You are right.
It is depressing. And so easy to feel, as I often do, rather annoyed at those who act as if they really don't care. And overwhelmed by the scale of man made climate change.
As someone recently said, humans have become conditioned to think only in the short term. And see climate change as over the horizon, or have zero interest in the future of humanity.

But what I am impressed with is that you don't think that way and you are trying to do your bit.
And remember, each and everyone of us doing their bit really does make a difference.
Just think of that young girl in Sweden. By doing something, Gretta has mobilised an army of young people who ARE determined to make us all take notice.

I was waiting outside the pharmacy yesterday. And the weather was quite warm. There were 2 cars parked with their engines running. Presumably for the air conditioning.
I got fed up and went up to one car. The lady opened her window.
So I asked her why she had the engine running. Expecting some abuse, she apologised and switched it off. So I did the same to the next car and the man switched his engine off and gave me the thumbs up. He then opened his window and said that he just wasn't thinking, which was fair enough.
Just a tiny thing. But as they say, every little helps.
That's awesome that you did that. I think this all the time but have never had the courage to go up to people and talk to them about it. It's rampant over here - especially in winter, when people often leave their running for a few minutes in the morning to warm it up before they go in... (Which is actually bad for your engine, which wasn't designed for running while stationary, and highly inefficient, cause the heating works much better while driving.)

I also do my little thing by having a hybrid, installing a better roof, and so on. Raising awareness is next-level stuff though. I keep telling myself I should get off my butt and get active, but I haven't made it beyond posting on this forum yet...
 

Buster15

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That's awesome that you did that. I think this all the time but have never had the courage to go up to people and talk to them about it. It's rampant over here - especially in winter, when people often leave their running for a few minutes in the morning to warm it up before they go in... (Which is actually bad for your engine, which wasn't designed for running while stationary, and highly inefficient, cause the heating works much better while driving.)

I also do my little thing by having a hybrid, installing a better roof, and so on. Raising awareness is next-level stuff though. I keep telling myself I should get off my butt and get active, but I haven't made it beyond posting on this forum yet...
You might be surprised that a few people might just read your post and they themselves might take that first small step.

To be perfectly honest, I was nervous. But the 2 people were even older than me. My wife would have gone mad had she seen me...
 

Cheimoon

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You might be surprised that a few people might just read your post and they themselves might take that first small step.

To be perfectly honest, I was nervous. But the 2 people were even older than me. My wife would have gone mad had she seen me...
I should try this at my daughters' school. I'm on the school council and there's even a 'no idling' sign in the parking lot, so lots of context to step up. :)
 

decorativeed

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It’s depressing to see people in my area that don’t seem to care a jot about fuel efficiency for example. They’ll keep buying their F-150 trucks and large SUVs, not to mention all the muscle cars that substitute for a real dick.
I don’t people by and large will change their consumerism to help the planet.

I’ll do my little bit, but I haven’t gone full bore. I still drive a petrol/hybrid everyday.
My life and habits are basically unchanged and it’s probably because I’d feel I’m the only sucker trying to help.
No, I don't think they will either. I also don't get the trend for older people to get bigger and bigger cars in the UK. Seems like once you hit 60 around here, you're buying that massive Range Rover, despite having absolutely no need for it, not even kids to sit in the back. Add that to that same boomer generation going on multiple overseas holidays as they have so much spare cash floating about, and they are leaving us in the shit, knowing they will likely be dead before it all hits the fan.
 

decorativeed

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I should try this at my daughters' school. I'm on the school council and there's even a 'no idling' sign in the parking lot, so lots of context to step up. :)
I've done this sometimes, but often pretend that I had been the victim of a fine for sitting running the engine in my car. They thank me and switch off! I changed my tactic after getting into inevitable arguments when I asked people to do it for the good of the environment.
 

Cheimoon

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I've done this sometimes, but often pretend that I had been the victim of a fine for sitting running the engine in my car. They thank me and switch off! I changed my tactic after getting into inevitable arguments when I asked people to do it for the good of the environment.
Yeah, that's what I was thinking, I can just refer to the sign and the health of everyone's kids walking next to idling cars, right in their emissions. And that's also important, but it does kinda erode the actual message I'd be trying to convey...
 

Buster15

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I should try this at my daughters' school. I'm on the school council and there's even a 'no idling' sign in the parking lot, so lots of context to step up. :)
Sounds like the perfect opportunity. And hopefully some of the parents would benefit from your inputs. And their children will as well.
 

Buster15

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I've done this sometimes, but often pretend that I had been the victim of a fine for sitting running the engine in my car. They thank me and switch off! I changed my tactic after getting into inevitable arguments when I asked people to do it for the good of the environment.
And what better reason is there.
 

Dr. Dwayne

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That's awesome that you did that. I think this all the time but have never had the courage to go up to people and talk to them about it. It's rampant over here - especially in winter, when people often leave their running for a few minutes in the morning to warm it up before they go in... (Which is actually bad for your engine, which wasn't designed for running while stationary, and highly inefficient, cause the heating works much better while driving.)

I also do my little thing by having a hybrid, installing a better roof, and so on. Raising awareness is next-level stuff though. I keep telling myself I should get off my butt and get active, but I haven't made it beyond posting on this forum yet...
It's a bad Canadian habit that goes back to when engines had carburetors, which did need to warm up a bit.
 

Rektsanwalt

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What do you guys think about electric car prices? I feel like one has to have around top 15% income to be able to finance such a car without financially neglecting other sectors in your life. It'll be a huge deal if the prices were same or at least around conventional car prices. Also, especially in germany, german car companies have to up their game. We're a car industry and export our stuff into the whole world, many people will only buy brand X. If they started producing electric cars for a reasonable price while still keeping a comparable level to conventional cars, we could see an incredible jump in e-mobility. Hopefully the EU really pushes hard enough to ban new fuel driven cars by 2030. If they don't want to change by themselves and play their part in this crisis, they have to be forced. They surely have the abilities.
 

Don't Kill Bill

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We need a world government that overrides any single government to stand a chance against the great filter, can't see that ever happening though. Worldwide legislation is essential.
Or may be it is the creation of a single world govt which is the great filter.
 

decorativeed

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What do you guys think about electric car prices? I feel like one has to have around top 15% income to be able to finance such a car without financially neglecting other sectors in your life. It'll be a huge deal if the prices were same or at least around conventional car prices. Also, especially in germany, german car companies have to up their game. We're a car industry and export our stuff into the whole world, many people will only buy brand X. If they started producing electric cars for a reasonable price while still keeping a comparable level to conventional cars, we could see an incredible jump in e-mobility. Hopefully the EU really pushes hard enough to ban new fuel driven cars by 2030. If they don't want to change by themselves and play their part in this crisis, they have to be forced. They surely have the abilities.
Not only is the cost of the car prohibitive, but most people simply don't have the ability to charge an electric vehicle from their homes. Many people in the UK live in houses like mine, which are either terraces or semi-detatched which pretty much open out onto a street. We don't have the luxury of a driveway, let alone a garage with a charging point.

Then you have to consider the environmental cost of producing all those cars, and all those batteries, and scrapping the billions of petrol cars we currently rely on. That's before thinking about how our outdated power infrastructure can handle potentially 30m or more people trying to charge a vehicle every day.
 

TwoSheds

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Not only is the cost of the car prohibitive, but most people simply don't have the ability to charge an electric vehicle from their homes. Many people in the UK live in houses like mine, which are either terraces or semi-detatched which pretty much open out onto a street. We don't have the luxury of a driveway, let alone a garage with a charging point.

Then you have to consider the environmental cost of producing all those cars, and all those batteries, and scrapping the billions of petrol cars we currently rely on. That's before thinking about how our outdated power infrastructure can handle potentially 30m or more people trying to charge a vehicle every day.
UK power infrastructure isn't particularly outdated tbf. We can handle an awful lot more electric cars than we currently have, not least because they're often charged overnight when demand is generally low but the wind is still blowing and atoms are still splitting.
 

nimic

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Not only is the cost of the car prohibitive, but most people simply don't have the ability to charge an electric vehicle from their homes. Many people in the UK live in houses like mine, which are either terraces or semi-detatched which pretty much open out onto a street. We don't have the luxury of a driveway, let alone a garage with a charging point.

Then you have to consider the environmental cost of producing all those cars, and all those batteries, and scrapping the billions of petrol cars we currently rely on. That's before thinking about how our outdated power infrastructure can handle potentially 30m or more people trying to charge a vehicle every day.
The environmental cost of producing those cars is nothing compared to the environmental cost of staying on petrol forever. It's not like all petrol cars will be immediately scrapped. Even if there wasn't any transition to electric, new cars would have to be built. The right move will simply be to mandate that those cars are electric.


What do you guys think about electric car prices? I feel like one has to have around top 15% income to be able to finance such a car without financially neglecting other sectors in your life. It'll be a huge deal if the prices were same or at least around conventional car prices. Also, especially in germany, german car companies have to up their game. We're a car industry and export our stuff into the whole world, many people will only buy brand X. If they started producing electric cars for a reasonable price while still keeping a comparable level to conventional cars, we could see an incredible jump in e-mobility. Hopefully the EU really pushes hard enough to ban new fuel driven cars by 2030. If they don't want to change by themselves and play their part in this crisis, they have to be forced. They surely have the abilities.
At least in Norway I don't think there's any particular cost increase in electric cars, unless you're going for a Tesla or the new Audi or whatever. There are plenty of cheaper models. And here you can save quite a lot on charging over pumping.
 

decorativeed

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The environmental cost of producing those cars is nothing compared to the environmental cost of staying on petrol forever. It's not like all petrol cars will be immediately scrapped. Even if there wasn't any transition to electric, new cars would have to be built. The right move will simply be to mandate that those cars are electric.
I agree with much of that. To be fair, it'd have been far easier if governments had put a cap on emissions and fuel milage, so we didn't see so many unnecessarily large cars being driven by individuals who simply do not need them, but like the luxury.

I'd like to see figures that prove your idea that the energy and emissions caused by the production of a new electric car is less than running the average petrol car for a year or so. I'd hope its true, but frankly I've no idea.
 

nimic

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I agree with much of that. To be fair, it'd have been far easier if governments had put a cap on emissions and fuel milage, so we didn't see so many unnecessarily large cars being driven by individuals who simply do not need them, but like the luxury.

I'd like to see figures that prove your idea that the energy and emissions caused by the production of a new electric car is less than running the average petrol car for a year or so. I'd hope its true, but frankly I've no idea.
It definitely won't even out in a year, but this is very much a long-term thing.
 

decorativeed

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It definitely won't even out in a year, but this is very much a long-term thing.
I think it's something people need to be able to consider. I have bought my first ever car as a 40 year old, almost entirely due to the pandemic putting me off a weekly 30 mile round trip on trams and trains. I'd like to know whether keeping hold of it for a few more years is better or worse for the environment than buying a new electric car. Otherwise the change is potentially making things worse.
 

Cait Sith

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Electric cars will do nothing of note for the environment, anyone with common sense knows what is going to happen. Once they are established, the gimmicks, the weight and the battery capacities will continue to grow to reach competitive advantage ("our model can do 1000 miles with a single charge and is stacked with 5000 seperate computers than can cook you meal while auto-driving"), which negates all the theoretical advantages of current "environmental showcase" models like an ID.3 (which is the equal of a 3L VW Lupo aka no one ever bought it).

That's how a consume-oriented economy works. Products need to be produced and sold non-stop. New products need to up the previous product so the economy continues to grow. Today you would be ecstatic about 800 km range with an electric car. In 20 years 1 ton batteries in 3.5 ton cars that facilitate 2k km could and most likely will be the norm and outclass current fossil fuel cars in terms of environmental polution by far.
 

Brwned

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Electric cars will do nothing of note for the environment, anyone with common sense knows what is going to happen. Once they are established, the gimmicks, the weight and the battery capacities will continue to grow to reach competitive advantage ("our model can do 1000 miles with a single charge and is stacked with 5000 seperate computers than can cook you meal while auto-driving"), which negates all the theoretical advantages of current "environmental showcase" models like an ID.3 (which is the equal of a 3L VW Lupo aka no one ever bought it).

That's how a consume-oriented economy works. Products need to be produced and sold non-stop. New products need to up the previous product so the economy continues to grow. Today you would be ecstatic about 800 km range with an electric car. In 20 years 1 ton batteries in 3.5 ton cars that facilitate 2k km could and most likely will be the norm and outclass current fossil fuel cars in terms of environmental polution by far.
If only there were some institution that could influence what companies produce and sell according to the needs and ethics of the society they exist in, codified in some kind of enforceable framework…

I guess it’s just simpler to just give in to some imaginary sense of inevitability. Great way to convince yourself you’re free to do whatever the feck you want. Then when those institutions step in to implement changes you can complain they’re stealing your freedom too. Win-win, if you’re that way inclined.
 

Cheimoon

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What do you guys think about electric car prices? I feel like one has to have around top 15% income to be able to finance such a car without financially neglecting other sectors in your life. It'll be a huge deal if the prices were same or at least around conventional car prices. Also, especially in germany, german car companies have to up their game. We're a car industry and export our stuff into the whole world, many people will only buy brand X. If they started producing electric cars for a reasonable price while still keeping a comparable level to conventional cars, we could see an incredible jump in e-mobility. Hopefully the EU really pushes hard enough to ban new fuel driven cars by 2030. If they don't want to change by themselves and play their part in this crisis, they have to be forced. They surely have the abilities.
Prices are dropping quickly right now, aren't they? At least from what I'm reading, they're expecting parity before too long. Another thing to consider is that electric cars are cheaper in the long run, not just because of gas/charging costs, but also because electric cars have far fewer moving parts and hence maintenance costs are far lower. The problem, of course, is that the temporary extra cost (as long as it's there) has to be paid upfront - which is where I guess financing your car makes sense.
 

Cheimoon

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Maybe there should be a thread about global warming and climate change (which we surely except by now) and a separate thread about the lack of/panicked decisions we are making to combat it?

Or maybe we should make this thread more brexity
I feel like this thread can just develop into the latter. Global warming is well established. Apart from new findings that close knowledge gaps, tweak the models, and update predictions, there isn't too much left to discuss in terms of the science. Plus mitigation/adaptation measures lead back to the science anyway, as it has to be calculated what difference the measures make and how that affects models and predictions.