Club Sale | Arnold to step down as CEO; INEOS 25% could be announced in the early part of next week (or month (or year))? | Happy one year anniversary

[Woziak]

Seems to me that Jassim is out. It is all about Glazers trying to negotiate best conditions with Sir Jim about them staying in the club. Only matter of time for Jim and Glazers to struck a deal.

You’ve neglected to include the minority share holders who have already given the Glazers a vote of no confidence in the last general board meeting, the only way INEOS can win the bid is if they go back to the minority share holders and offer some type of enterprise share value for the 50 million A class shares. Do they have that sone of additional money ?

 

[Brownie85]

There is a tweet where Glazers are trying to get voting rights from Jim if they accept his offer.
My feeling from start of this shitshow is that Glazers are keen to keep fair share of the club. They think that club will worth even more in next years.

Theres only one way the value of the club is going to go if things stay the same, and it's not up in my opinion.
Jim has already said, if we're going by tweets anyway, not a chance to the Glazers getting voting rights. So thats a non starter straight away. Plus Ratcliffe has the issue of appeasing the Class A shareholders, so if he can't do that, then his bid is going nowhere, and if we're going by tweets again, wasn't there a tweet going round saying that the chemical industry is suffering lately, which is causing INEOS to not make as much money? I'm sure i read that somewhere.

My guess is SJ is just riding it out, because he knows that Ratcliffes bid is so complicated and the issues in the club will get to a point where the Glazers will likely want out and accept his bid.

 

[Yorke to Cole]

Theres only one way the value of the club is going to go if things stay the same, and it's not up in my opinion.
Jim has already said, if we're going by tweets anyway, not a chance to the Glazers getting voting rights. So thats a non starter straight away. Plus Ratcliffe has the issue of appeasing the Class A shareholders, so if he can't do that, then his bid is going nowhere, and if we're going by tweets again, wasn't there a tweet going round saying that the chemical industry is suffering lately, which is causing INEOS to not make as much money? I'm sure i read that somewhere.

My guess is SJ is just riding it out, because he knows that Ratcliffes bid is so complicated and the issues in the club will get to a point where the Glazers will likely want out and accept his bid.

Like I posted a couple of nights ago, I only got to watch the caught offside video on Thursday evening. David Hellier believes Jassim will get it in the end. He also says that he thinks Jassim will increase his bid.

I am wondering what factors will make him increase? If he does indeed do this over the next month or so ( or longer) , that would suggest that Custis is correct. He is doing his due diligence which may include looking at renovations of the stadium, sponsorship etc, and will increase and make it the overall amount for the whole club.

I have thought to myself that this could be going on in the background. This is also because Jacobs keeps saying there is no 'exclusivity' period as both INEOS and Jassim have been asked to complete the necessary procedures to make sure they are ready to complete a deal.

 

[UnitedSofa]

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[Yorke to Cole]

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I was going to post that there are murmurings that an increased offer (that is expected to be accepted) is going to be made. This is what happened last time in June, where Jassim made a final "take it or leave it offer". There was a small sounds of speculation a few days before.

I think if Jassim makes that next offer, it will be with the knowledge of his 'due diligence' being completed. The expense of the stadium, facilities etc.. Will be approximately known.

 

[ShinjiNinja26]

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Another nothing update. Pure speculation by Jacobs as usual.

 

[putzmcgee123]

Another nothing update. Pure speculation by Jacobs as usual.

The Ben Jacobs Special.™

 

[Pes6Monster]

He also says that he thinks Jassim will increase his bid.

I aam wondering what factors will make him increase?

It's quite simple really. I've been saying it for months.

If Qatar do not increase their state bid, then they will not get to use Man United.

They'd most likely have already concluded the deal had they not been silly enough to attempt and woo supporters with promises of wild investments.

A new stadium! Gentrify Trafford! A new state of the art training facility! Please love Qatar and ignore human rights abuse!

Once the Glazers got wind they'd have that extra money, they used Ratcliffe to pressure Qatar into increasing their price.

So far, it's worked a treat.

 

[Woziak]

I was going to post that there are murmurings that an increased offer (that is expected to be accepted). This is what happened last time in Ju e, where Jassim made a final "take it or leave it offer". There was a small sounds of speculation a few days before.

I think if Jassim makes that next offer, it will be with the knowledge of his 'due diligence' being completed. The expense of the stadium, facilities etc.. Will be approximately known.

It’s quite possible that is is more Glazer Spin to divert fans looking at the team on the field. It’s possible that due diligence has been done for 2/3 months by both parties looking to own the club. It’s also quite possible that the Qatari have now found a way to clear potential obstacles with UEFA and EPL and they now know that they can not be objected too. They also might think that if they bid £6 billion for the Glazers shares, then Joel and Avram will still want even more.

This either comes to a conclusion before Xmas or it’s dragging on till 2025 with the club completely restricted by major financial issues next summer with a £40-50m budget. I can see fans and many people working inside the club going crazy if this is not done by Xmas 2023 and the scenes at Ajax today will pale into significance compared to what might happen at Old Trafford if Joel and Avram are still running this club next summer 24.

 

[horsechoker]

Sheikh Jassim getting his knob out isn't off the table

 

[Wednesday at Stoke]

Sheikh Jassim getting his knob out isn't off the table

He seems like the kind of man who has a servant to do it for him.

 

[Brownie85]

There has to be a reason as to why SJ hasn't withdrawn yet.

I do wonder if an increased bid is coming, and if so, will he make it with the knowledge that the Glazers will accept it? We all know that realistically the Glazers can't stick around for much longer and surely they must know it too.

 

[Hal9000]

There has to be a reason as to why SJ hasn't withdrawn yet.

I do wonder if an increased bid is coming, and if so, will he make it with the knowledge that the Glazers will accept it? We all know that realistically the Glazers can't stick around for much longer and surely they must know it too.

It's because they don't want to pay over the odds, so they are just one upping ineos everytime. But it seems like ineos have hit their limit so there is no need for Qatar to up their bid.

Ultimately it's now a game of who blinks first. I think both bidders are willing to play the long game, whilst Glazers are hoping to hold onto the next TV rights deal and next set of sponsorships. I mean they managed to get a record sum from Qualcomm and Adidas despite how crap we've been. The Glazers will hang on till the lack of success effects the revenue, at the moment is doesn't seem to be.

 

[Roboc7]

There has to be a reason as to why SJ hasn't withdrawn yet.

I do wonder if an increased bid is coming, and if so, will he make it with the knowledge that the Glazers will accept it? We all know that realistically the Glazers can't stick around for much longer and surely they must know it too.

SJ and INEOS must both be getting enough encouragement to think they can still win or they’d pull out of the process I’m sure. There’s also clearly not going to be a bidding war, at some stage there has to be a tipping point one way or another but I’m sure the Glazers will drag this out as long as possible.

 

[Pes6Monster]

There has to be a reason as to why SJ hasn't withdrawn yet.

I do wonder if an increased bid is coming, and if so, will he make it with the knowledge that the Glazers will accept it? We all know that realistically the Glazers can't stick around for much longer and surely they must know it too.

Think Qatar will need to tread carefully with their improved bid as they are still pretending it's not a state job. Can't bid too much though it's available.

The Glazers are alright. Billions put away. They can sit tight and let their asset sell itself.

 

[Strangest Tribe]

Think Qatar will need to tread carefully with their improved bid as they are still pretending it's not a state job. Can't bid too much though it's available.

The Glazers are alright. Billions put away. They can sit tight and let their asset sell itself.

So if/when the Qatar bid is accepted and they become our new owners, who will you support then ? genuinely curious

 

[Coops73]

It’s quite possible that is is more Glazer Spin to divert fans looking at the team on the field. It’s possible that due diligence has been done for 2/3 months by both parties looking to own the club. It’s also quite possible that the Qatari have now found a way to clear potential obstacles with UEFA and EPL and they now know that they can not be objected too. They also might think that if they bid £6 billion for the Glazers shares, then Joel and Avram will still want even more.

This either comes to a conclusion before Xmas or it’s dragging on till 2025 with the club completely restricted by major financial issues next summer with a £40-50m budget. I can see fans and many people working inside the club going crazy if this is not done by Xmas 2023 and the scenes at Ajax today will pale into significance compared to what might happen at Old Trafford if Joel and Avram are still running this club next summer 24.

I wouldn’t be against this happening, sadly I think this needs to happen. Enough is enough.

 

[Woziak]

It's because they don't want to pay over the odds, so they are just one upping ineos everytime. But it seems like ineos have hit their limit so there is no need for Qatar to up their bid.

Ultimately it's now a game of who blinks first. I think both bidders are willing to play the long game, whilst Glazers are hoping to hold onto the next TV rights deal and next set of sponsorships. I mean they managed to get a record sum from Qualcomm and Adidas despite how crap we've been. The Glazers will hang on till the lack of success effects the revenue, at the moment is doesn't seem to be.

As good as these sponsorship deals are, the only way the Glazers can hang around for the next two years before Bank of America demands the original leveraged buyout loan paid back is with actual huge investment now, the club revenue is supposed to be a record for last year yet we received an FFP fine from UEFA and are about to post a net operating loss even on £630-640m, this is because of increasing interest rates on servicing the leveraged buy out or the amortised transfer debt of £300m plus.

With the Glazers inability to put any money into the club and with the new FSP reducing to 80% next summer, they can no longer take dividends out, so for them to raise cash to invest in their other failing sports franchise , the Tampa Buccaneers they must sell the club or sell shares within the club.

No money invested by the owners for three years could mean an FFP breach and a fine or potentially a transfer ban for one window, This happens next summer with the Glazers still unwilling to sell, then like I said earlier, what happened in Amsterdam today will look like children playing in the park compared to what might happen at Old Trafford!

 

[Yorke to Cole]

As good as these sponsorship deals are, the only way the Glazers can hang around for the next two years before Bank of America demands the original leveraged buyout loan paid back is with actual huge investment now, the club revenue is supposed to be a record for last year yet we received an FFP fine from UEFA and are about to post a net operating loss even on £630-640m, this is because of increasing interest rates on servicing the leveraged buy out or the amortised transfer debt of £300m plus.

With the Glazers inability to put any money into the club and with the new FSP reducing to 80% next summer, they can no longer take dividends out, so for them to raise cash to invest in their other failing sports franchise , the Tampa Buccaneers they must sell the club or sell shares within the club.

No money invested by the owners for three years could mean an FFP breach and a fine or potentially a transfer ban for one window, This happens next summer with the Glazers still unwilling to sell, then like I said earlier, what happened in Amsterdam today will look like children playing in the park compared to what might happen at Old Trafford!

I have got this instinct that Jassim is going to place this next bid. I am not keen on Jacobs, but it was he who said a fifth bid is coming. It was then Keegan who said after that fifth increase was made "this is the take it or leave it offer." Jacobs does have experience and links in Qatar.

It was after this, that made me take Jacobs a bit more seriously in relation to this saga. Also, remember Jacobs was the first to come out and say that the process was still ongoing the very same night the Mail on Sunday story broke about the club being taken off the market.

 

[TrebleChamp99]

Saw the thread bumped and got hopeful and saw it was more waffle
From Jacobs.

November as I’ve always said. INEOS

 

[Yorke to Cole]

Saw the thread bumped and got hopeful and saw it was more waffle
From Jacobs.

November as I’ve always said. INEOS

what makes you think Ratcliffe's done it?

 

[Yorke to Cole]

It's quite simple really. I've been saying it for months.

If Qatar do not increase their state bid, then they will not get to use Man United.

They'd most likely have already concluded the deal had they not been silly enough to attempt and woo supporters with promises of wild investments.

A new stadium! Gentrify Trafford! A new state of the art training facility! Please love Qatar and ignore human rights abuse!

Once the Glazers got wind they'd have that extra money, they used Ratcliffe to pressure Qatar into increasing their price.

So far, it's worked a treat.

Do you believe that if United had fallen off or so far behind other clubs in organizational infrastructure, (scouting, data analysis, technical director etc), the stadium, training facilities and more that they could have attracted other forms of buyers other than people with links to the State?

For example, could have they gotten the number of interested parties that Chelsea got?

I am sure you agree that had the club been more functional and got their finances in order, that would have made the club less susceptible to a State takeover.

 

[croadyman]

what makes you think Ratcliffe's done it?

Yeah do tell us why so confident

 

[tenpoless]

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If I learned anything from this saga is that this guy only has 5 pics of him taken in his entire life.

 

[Woziak]

Saw the thread bumped and got hopeful and saw it was more waffle
From Jacobs.

November as I’ve always said. INEOS

Can’t see it, the minority A class share holders are a huge issue for INEOS, they are already borrowing to buy 51% of the voting B shares, what makes you think they can all of a sudden match SJ 100% bid?

Bloomberg, Reuters very rarely get predictions like this wrong and neither have given INEOS any chance whatsoever!

 

[Wednesday at Stoke]

If I learned anything from this saga is that this guy only has 5 pics of him taken in his entire life.

That's by design. They control their image very carefully.

 

[Appletonred]

The debt has to be repaid in full to the Bank of America by 2025 doesn't it? If that is the case then they are most likely selling up, and most likely to Qatar.

 

[Adisa]

It feels like purgatory

 

[TrebleChamp99]

what makes you think Ratcliffe's done it?

Yeah do tell us why so confident

I mentioned on this forum back in May I think it was I had contact with someone who knows someone very senior at INEOS and they have been working on the deal since before "strategic alternatives" was announced, I was told 18 months before and that the deal would take many months but its pretty much a foregone conclusion, they also said SJ feels like its been set up to extract more cash from INEOS.

Second source I spoke to, probably around a month or so ago, or whenever the Tour De France was, separate person, someone very close to me, very well respected in cycling and was there reporting on team INEOS spoke to "someone" high up, told them November, they are buying the club and "these things take time".

Take as you will, but that's where my confidence comes from. Both from INEOS side of things so that could be a factor but both separately said its INEOS and not "if" but "when". For what its worth id prefer 9-2 and SJ so I wasn't too pleased.

 

[Coops73]

The debt has to be repaid in full to the Bank of America by 2025 doesn't it? If that is the case then they are most likely selling up, and most likely to Qatar.

And isn’t some of the big cheeses from Bank of America working for/on behalf of jassim?

 

[cyberman]

The debt has to be repaid in full to the Bank of America by 2025 doesn't it? If that is the case then they are most likely selling up, and most likely to Qatar.

Unless Jim makes another bid, which he hasn’t yet, then it’s Qatar all the way. Hard for Jim to have secret conversations and wrap this up when his bid literally wouldn’t be allowed to happen

 

[crossy1686]

If I learned anything from this saga is that this guy only has 5 pics of him taken in his entire life.

Rich people usually pay to not be famous.

 

[aganley]

Unless Jim makes another bid, which he hasn’t yet, then it’s Qatar all the way. Hard for Jim to have secret conversations and wrap this up when his bid literally wouldn’t be allowed to happen

You have also got to take into account the complexity of SJ bid, impartiality Shares and voting rights. The 2 remaining Glazers are not willing to take a back seat and let SJ run things how he wants. Their egos will not allow it. They still want a major say, which totally contradicts what SJ wants.

 

[aganley]

And isn’t some of the big cheeses from Bank of America working for/on behalf of jassim?

That fact is very interesting, so it's unlikely they will be able to refinance at a favorable rate. The debt has crippled them, that would also explain why Jassim is very confident.

 

[Andy_Cole]

I mentioned on this forum back in May I think it was I had contact with someone who knows someone very senior at INEOS and they have been working on the deal since before "strategic alternatives" was announced, I was told 18 months before and that the deal would take many months but its pretty much a foregone conclusion, they also said SJ feels like its been set up to extract more cash from INEOS.

Second source I spoke to, probably around a month or so ago, or whenever the Tour De France was, separate person, someone very close to me, very well respected in cycling and was there reporting on team INEOS spoke to "someone" high up, told them November, they are buying the club and "these things take time".

Take as you will, but that's where my confidence comes from. Both from INEOS side of things so that could be a factor but both separately said its INEOS and not "if" but "when". For what its worth id prefer 9-2 and SJ so I wasn't too pleased.

Whilst I do think that you and your sources are telling the truth, I just don’t believe they were being told the truth. I think Glazers/ Raine has been stringing INEOS (and perhaps 92) along. INEOS at one point absolutely believed they had won. But at this current state it’s far from a conclusion. Also the better sources (Bloomberg, Reuters) all edge towards 92. So I think that’s the likely outcome.

 

[philippexyz]

Wait, Glazers have to return the original loan they borrowed to buy the club in 2005 of around £500-600m by the end of 2025? If this is true, I didn't know this(dumb from me).

I'm not an expert in economics by any means, but could they just borrow more money(create new debt) in order to repay the old one(I think that's called Ponzi's scheme in economics, if I'm not mistaken)? Interest rates would be pretty high again, I suppose, and the club desperately needs some serious cash injection(s) in order to survive(near the top of the game, at least), plus the complications with tightening FFP rules.

This "strategic review"(sale) might be more complicated that I initially imagined - I wasn't informed enough. Glazers might have even less leverage than I previously thought they have. They'll either have to pull some sinister, genius financial trick/scam(which they might just be perfectly capable of - they're very foul, grotesque, wicked, financially crafty people), or they'll have to be gone pretty soon or the club completely collapses.

It looks like we're in the endgame right now - Glazers might be backed into a corner and there's no escape, other than the sale.

 

[TrebleChamp99]

Whilst I do think that you and your sources are telling the truth, I just don’t believe they were being told the truth. I think Glazers/ Raine has been stringing INEOS (and perhaps 92) along. INEOS at one point absolutely believed they had won. But at this current state it’s far from a conclusion. Also the better sources (Bloomberg, Reuters) all edge towards 92. So I think that’s the likely outcome.

Yeah I mean I agree with you, I think they were both told what was possible the truth from that persons side of things but we all know the buyers have been kept in the dark and whats more 92 and INEOS have both been "confident".

I wouldn't be surprised if there is literally no contact or updates from Glazers to the buyers or even staff at the club, for instance I don't think Arnold would have a clue beyond what his board knows which is likely next to nothing. Its so high profile and locked up behind NDA I imagine no one has a clue and they just get drip fed "its ongoing".

I settled into this taking over a year a long time ago, as it goes on, I think it will it take 18 months - 2 years as in, this time next year we may know whats going on.

Dont forget we have the big old PL and FA approval to go through and that will take forever.

I see a minority purchase happening first, whether its INEOS or 92, I think its too much up front unless its an investment group so I can see something like 30% first, then 45, then full purchase over the space of 3-4 years.

The only similar purchase In recent times was chelsea and that was very unique circumstances and looking at it, its been nothing short of a disaster.

 

[Appletonred]

Pretty sure that I heard the Bank of America want their money back in full by '25, and it can't be refinanced, from the INEOS perspective its looking complicated, they would surely have to take on the debt, that's as well as the problematic 31 percent shareholders wanting their slice, no wonder SJ and the 92f are confident, its pretty much all there for them, despite the Glazers seemingly holding out for more, this is just going one way.

 

[stoinz]

If I learned anything from this saga is that this guy only has 5 pics of him taken in his entire life.

I doubt he even existed.

 

[Rightnr]

I mentioned on this forum back in May I think it was I had contact with someone who knows someone very senior at INEOS and they have been working on the deal since before "strategic alternatives" was announced, I was told 18 months before and that the deal would take many months but its pretty much a foregone conclusion, they also said SJ feels like its been set up to extract more cash from INEOS.

Second source I spoke to, probably around a month or so ago, or whenever the Tour De France was, separate person, someone very close to me, very well respected in cycling and was there reporting on team INEOS spoke to "someone" high up, told them November, they are buying the club and "these things take time".

Take as you will, but that's where my confidence comes from. Both from INEOS side of things so that could be a factor but both separately said its INEOS and not "if" but "when". For what its worth id prefer 9-2 and SJ so I wasn't too pleased.

I remember your update and while I viewed with the typical criticism of seeing breaking news on a football forum, it didn't sound crazy.

However, while INEOS may believe they've 'won' and it's about extracting more money from them, it could equally be the opposite and this is about getting Qatar to pay up.

Also, your source talks about discussions going back before formal announcement. This suggests to me the parties to that discussion were the two troglodytes and we know there are (supposedly) issues of dissent within the family on the best course of action. There's also the topic of class A shareholders and them willing to litigate their way to a Qatar sale.

What I'm saying is that your story might be true based on what INEOS believe but the reality might be different (or not, who knows). What I am saying is I agree with your conclusion and thanks for bringing us info.