Could we actually finish 2nd this season?

Wayne's World

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After today’s win and going four wins on the bounce? Villa have dropped points again, and with City heading to Liverpool — traditionally a tough ground for them — we could realistically find ourselves just three points off 2nd.

Even in a worst-case scenario, we’d only be five points off 6th If Liverpool lose, and with five places likely getting Champions League football this season, that’s significant.

Given we have no European football and the teams around us all have difficult fixtures coming up, is it foolish to look that far ahead? Or should we actually be aiming for it, especially when none of those sides are showing real consistency?
 
If we do finish second I will hate that Portuguese conman even more than I currently do.
 
Don't think so.

I think today's game, and Fulham, has shown we just have to take each game at a time. This 'new' team are still setting. Have we been behind in a game since Carrick has been in charge?

We are doing v v well, playing some good, organised, confident football, which is great to see again. But let's keep things steady.
 
Wayne's World said:
After today’s win and going four wins on the bounce? Villa have dropped points again, and with City heading to Liverpool — traditionally a tough ground for them — we could realistically find ourselves just three points off 2nd.

Even in a worst-case scenario, we’d only be five points off 6th If Liverpool lose, and with five places likely getting Champions League football this season, that’s significant.

Given we have no European football and the teams around us all have difficult fixtures coming up, is it foolish to look that far ahead? Or should we actually be aiming for it, especially when none of those sides are showing real consistency?
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Just for this weekend, let me say it: We're in for a late Title charge at the end of this season.

Arsenal are 12 points ahead of us, meaning we need at least 4 losses from them, and they have yet to face Spurs, Chelsea, Brighton (All 3 consecutively) and City in the returning leg. 3 out of those 4 tough matches for them are on away ground. They are also still in FA Cup, Carabao Final (Against City) and Champions League to concern themselves with, while we only focus on the League. And their final match of the PL is Crystal Palace, on away ground.

I know I may be a bit too hyped right now after we end our drought against Spurs, but think about it. If there's anyone who can do such a feat in style, it's us.

Today felt like the old Manchester United. We even got the "Lads, it's Spurs!" attitude correct!
 
I think we get third, but we could finish 2nd depending.

Today we actually felt like champions in terms of performance. Which shows we actually aren't that far off.

We were creating chances, managing the game well and looked so good on the ball it just reminded me of a team that were champions elect.

Hopefully in the summer we can add some quality to raise the level of the squad.

I haven't seen a period like we are having now since SAF
 
I think we can, we don’t have the trickiest run in the world tbh and we are currently winning our difficult games,
 
We should finish above Villa. Always likely they would drop away.

Would be surprised to finish 2nd, but third would be a really good achievement.
 
ClaytonBlackmoorLeftPeg said:
We should finish above Villa. Always likely they would drop away.

Would be surprised to finish 2nd, but third would be a really good achievement.
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On the Squawka adjusted XG table (each game you take the XG and give the result accordingly) Villa are actually 12th, we are 3rd

https://www.squawka.com/en/features/xg-table-premier-league-2025-26/

Villa just aren't sustainable at all.

Sunderland are 2nd bottom which shows how much they're overperforming xg pretty mental.
 
Rozay said:
If we do finish second I will hate that Portuguese conman even more than I currently do.
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OK. Pathetic.

Last 4 matches, xG 7. xGA 6. Actual-- 10 goals, 4 allowed. To use a poker term, this team has been running hot since Carrick took over. Converting chances and not giving up stupid goals. Hmm, why is that? 1.) Luck evening out. 2.) Carrick being able to start Maguire and Martinez in defense has helped.

United didn't outplay Arsenal or Fulham, but walked away with 6 points. They faced City's 4th string back 4 and Tottenham had a player sent off. United's luck is evening out after the bad luck to start the season.

Is Emery a bad manager at Villa? No. 4 points in their last 5 without playing a top team. Why? Things even out over a season-- they were very lucky at the start of the season with results they didn't deserve, and now things are evening out. Just like Liverpool who started out the season winning 5 in a row and their xP total was like 5, but they earned 15 points. Then they expectedly had a downturn because they weren't playing well, and the luck reversed itself and they lost 4 in a row.

United were unlucky (due to bad finishing, missed pens and defensive lapses,) and now United are getting the results even while not playing that great the last 3 matches.

There was a reason United was in 3rd in the hypothetical xPoints table. The performances may not have been to everyone's liking because of the system, but they were unlucky. Just like Fletch was unlucky in the 2-2 draw to Burnley. It was 2.55 xG to .25 xG. Should have been an easy 2+ goal win, and somehow Burnley flukes in a couple of goals and United misses chance after chance. Fletch was unlucky and that luck has turned the past 3 matches.

The fact is-- you may dislike RA, but the team is in better shape now than when he took over from the disasterous ETH reign, where not only did ETH make us worse every year, but ETH sent us deeper and deeper into debt buying God Awful players.


United, minus MDL is finally healthy, has an experienced CB pairing and has more than 1 attacker on the bench. Heck, there were games when the bench was Zirkee and 6 youth players.

Luck evens out. 13 more matches and I feel confident that 26 more points gets us top 4 for sure. Possibly 22 points gets us top 4 as well.

Home vs Palace, Leeds, Forrest, Brentford, Villa and Pool. Get 15 points (and revenge vs Villa.)

Squeeze out 11 points away-- so 3 wins, 2 draws out of 7 matches. Not easy with Newcastle, Chelsea, Brighton, Bournemouth, Sunderland------ all after the West Ham and Everton matches.

Imperative United get 4 points or more vs West Ham and Everton. IF United handle their business at home getting 15/18, then they may only need 8 away points to eek into 4th (or 5th) with 66 points.

Goal: Champions League Qualification. I don't care if they get it from finishing 2nd or 5th. If they can seal the deal vs West Ham and Everton-- that goes a long way towards CL qualification. The team is confident and I don't want their confidence shattered at the moment. I want them to ride the hot streak as long as they can. I'll take bad performances, good results, over good performances, bad results for the rest of the year.
 
Keep it calm.
Beat a heavily improved West Ham away next week and get that tiktok clown a haircut first.
 
lolok said:
OK. Pathetic.

Last 4 matches, xG 7. xGA 6. Actual-- 10 goals, 4 allowed. To use a poker term, this team has been running hot since Carrick took over. Converting chances and not giving up stupid goals. Hmm, why is that? 1.) Luck evening out. 2.) Carrick being able to start Maguire and Martinez in defense has helped.

United didn't outplay Arsenal or Fulham, but walked away with 6 points. They faced City's 4th string back 4 and Tottenham had a player sent off. United's luck is evening out after the bad luck to start the season.

Is Emery a bad manager at Villa? No. 4 points in their last 5 without playing a top team. Why? Things even out over a season-- they were very lucky at the start of the season with results they didn't deserve, and now things are evening out. Just like Liverpool who started out the season winning 5 in a row and their xP total was like 5, but they earned 15 points. Then they expectedly had a downturn because they weren't playing well, and the luck reversed itself and they lost 4 in a row.

United were unlucky (due to bad finishing, missed pens and defensive lapses,) and now United are getting the results even while not playing that great the last 3 matches.

There was a reason United was in 3rd in the hypothetical xPoints table. The performances may not have been to everyone's liking because of the system, but they were unlucky. Just like Fletch was unlucky in the 2-2 draw to Burnley. It was 2.55 xG to .25 xG. Should have been an easy 2+ goal win, and somehow Burnley flukes in a couple of goals and United misses chance after chance. Fletch was unlucky and that luck has turned the past 3 matches.

The fact is-- you may dislike RA, but the team is in better shape now than when he took over from the disasterous ETH reign, where not only did ETH make us worse every year, but ETH sent us deeper and deeper into debt buying God Awful players.


United, minus MDL is finally healthy, has an experienced CB pairing and has more than 1 attacker on the bench. Heck, there were games when the bench was Zirkee and 6 youth players.

Luck evens out. 13 more matches and I feel confident that 26 more points gets us top 4 for sure. Possibly 22 points gets us top 4 as well.

Home vs Palace, Leeds, Forrest, Brentford, Villa and Pool. Get 15 points (and revenge vs Villa.)

Squeeze out 11 points away-- so 3 wins, 2 draws out of 7 matches. Not easy with Newcastle, Chelsea, Brighton, Bournemouth, Sunderland------ all after the West Ham and Everton matches.

Imperative United get 4 points or more vs West Ham and Everton. IF United handle their business at home getting 15/18, then they may only need 8 away points to eek into 4th (or 5th) with 66 points.

Goal: Champions League Qualification. I don't care if they get it from finishing 2nd or 5th. If they can seal the deal vs West Ham and Everton-- that goes a long way towards CL qualification. The team is confident and I don't want their confidence shattered at the moment. I want them to ride the hot streak as long as they can. I'll take bad performances, good results, over good performances, bad results for the rest of the year.
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Almost like football isn't about creating more xG than the other team. The skill to create xG and the skill to actually score goals is very different.
 
Escobar said:
I agree. WH for example will be tricky and we are still vulnerable to concede. But third would already be a really good place after all
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They're one of the worst teams in the league, worse than spurs arguably we should be winning the game.

I know it's not as simple as that but we really should be.

There's of course no free meal in the league.
 
I don't think City will fall that much, but 3rd is on. At this point I'd say we shouldn't be favourites for 3rd but I'd be happy with any of the top 5 regardless. Great form but you cant win every game.

Funny, I said before the season that I think there's a world where we could do a sneaky title challenge and anything less than CL qualification was a failure. People underestimate how big an advantage no fixture congestion is, partly because Amorim tried his pretend like there was no advantage. Ifs and buts, I don't think we'd win it anyway, but if we sacked him in October or November, then I think we'd be pretty close to Arsenal. Bring just 12 points off them despite that December run where we gifted West Ham, Everton, Wolves, Leeds and burnley points is hilarious. Even if we win 3 of those 5 (you never win them all, like the Burnley one was after amorim) that's another 6-7 points at least.
 
Jeffthered said:
Don't think so.

I think today's game, and Fulham, has shown we just have to take each game at a time. This 'new' team are still setting. Have we been behind in a game since Carrick has been in charge?

We are doing v v well, playing some good, organised, confident football, which is great to see again. But let's keep things steady.
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We were behind away at the league leaders. So yeah
 
We could also win the PL, but likely not.

We have two tricky away games coming up. Navigate that and we'll see. I'm more anxious about being lapped by Chelsea and Liverpool.
 
We're in the perfect storm right now. Barely any injuries, only the PL to focus on, new signings have settled and gelling together along with the infamous new Manager bounce.

Finishing top 4 will be excellent and a springboard to better things next season after our midfield rebuild. Still a long way to go yet.
 
Yes, because no one bar Arsenal is any good and we only have one game a week. If City go deep in the CL and FA Cup, could see them phoning it in for the last 5-10 league games if Arsenal have basically already won it and top 5 is secured.
 
Arsenal will drop more than 12pts. So why not believe in 83pts and the title!
 
The state of the league this year, 2nd doesn’t seem like an outrageous feat now.

Villa are not going to sustain whatever it is they were doing when they went so many unbeaten. They were second best in a fair few of those, Rogers is good but not THAT good.

City I cant’t put my finger on. Liverpool are shit.

If the last four games is anything to go by, we have at least the second best attack in the premier league when everyone is fit and playing in their best position.

But it would also be just like us to drop off and finish 8th..
 
Adisa said:
This. That festive period run was a disgrace.
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Over the course of the season, looking at the level of the 3 teams above us, there’s no way we should have been out of the title conversation. I think we are at the very least better than Villa, and I think we’re better than City too.
 
Unrealistic but winning the league isn’t beyond the realms of possibility. Arsenal could well bottle it and the rest of the pack aren’t exactly firing.
 
Don’t see why not. City are very inconsistent and have a tough away game tomorrow. If they fail to win, we are four points behind them at most.

We have momentum and one game a week. But we obviously also need a bit of luck. That tackle of Casemiro today is a reminder that one key injury could seriously derail our run-in. Lose Bruno, Mainoo, Casemiro, Shaw or Martinez, and the side will suffer. We don’t have good back-ups lined up.
 
Whats the better result tomorrow. Liverpool win allowing us to close the gap on city or city win allowing us to open up a gap on Liverpool.
 
RedCoffee said:
Whats the better result tomorrow. Liverpool win allowing us to close the gap on city or city win allowing us to open up a gap on Liverpool.
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If we are talking purely in terms of finishing in the Champions League spots, a City win would be best.
 
RedCoffee said:
Whats the better result tomorrow. Liverpool win allowing us to close the gap on city or city win allowing us to open up a gap on Liverpool.
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Draw. Both drop points. Liverpool stay 4 points behind us. City go 4 points ahead of us. City win and they are 2 wins ahead of us with a much better GD. Liverpool win and they are only 2 points behind us.
 
TheNewEra said:
They're one of the worst teams in the league, worse than spurs arguably we should be winning the game.

I know it's not as simple as that but we really should be.

There's of course no free meal in the league.
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They won 3 times in their last 5 games, of which a narrow loss to Chelsea
 
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