SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Pogue Mahone]

Also, I think I would feel a lot better about this whole thing if they also introduced harsher punishments and clampdowns on the anti-mask protestor types. I am absolutely not above small, vindictive pleasures at this point.

Was it China that they sprayed protestors with a blue indelible dye, so they could be tracked down and arrested later? Or maybe it was Thailand? Now that’s the sort of human rights abuse I can get on board with. Anyone who has the outline of a mask stencilled on their smurf coloured face gets a lesser punishment.

 

[Brwned]

Wonder what it's like to be a decision maker in times like this. You've got the usual stuff of having to figure out what the least worst option is, but in this case the options are particularly shit, while you have no opportunity to progress your political agenda and no real moments when you convince yourself you're making a useful contribution to pretty much anything.

Suppose it's not bad to get stacks of cash while the economy's getting a kicking.

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

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[Brophs]

Going back to Level 5 is a dose, but unfortunately, it's the right decision. I'm not especially bothered about Christmas as an event, but for my family it's a bigger thing. My dad has only seen our new child once in the three weeks since he was born and is now facing at least another month without seeing him. There are countless other people in our situation and many, many more, far worse off.

The idea, for example, that Governmental guidance could suggest that only some members of a family could come home for Christmas if the number of households allowed to socialise was limited and would be an incredibly difficult sell, so they need to get a hold of it before then (and obviously, more urgently, to halt the spread and risk to life) so that they can allow for some semblance of normality, at least in terms of travel, over the holidays.

 

[golden_blunder]

Was it China that they sprayed protestors with a blue indelible dye, so they could be tracked down and arrested later? Or maybe it was Thailand? Now that’s the sort of human rights abuse I can get on board with. Anyone who has the outline of a mask stencilled on their smurf coloured face gets a lesser punishment.

Honestly I think they should be out spraying the germ infested bastards in the street with antibacterial spray

 

[AaronRedDevil]

My only worry about this lockdown is. Will GameStop be open for the PS5?

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

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[Jericholyte2]

Does seem like they’re missing a trick to not stick an extra week on the half term break.

I guess they’ve decided that the data shows schools are not a significant contributor and it’s in the interest of society to keep them open. They should be a bit more explicit about that second bit, mind you.

I actually think we need some sort of people’s forum. To decide what our priorities are going to be while we live with this fecking thing (as it looks like eradication is off the table). I’d like to see amateur sport a bit higher up the list of priorities than it is anyway. Not sure what the sacrificial lamb would be to allow this. Come down harder on companies insisting people still come to work in the office?

There has been a lot of talk around teaching staff that I know, that they almost expect the announcement of a two-week shutdown on Thursday or Friday. The question then becomes do the schools stay open or do they work remotely in which case said teachers will then be using half term (which has nearly caused a few of my friends to quit) to prep online lessons instead of getting some well needed r&r.

 

[Brwned]

I thought this was a really good article that brought to life some of the practical struggles a lot of major governments faced that seemed so inexplicable at the time. Why weren't France (and co.) carrying out mass testing even at the peak of the first wave? Not enough fecking cotton buds! (among other things)

The government’s flip-flopping policies on past pandemics had left a once formidable national stockpile of face masks nearly depleted. Officials had also outsourced the manufacturing capacity to replenish that stockpile to suppliers overseas, despite warnings since the early 2000s about the rising risks of global pandemics.

That has left France — unlike Germany, its rival for European leadership — dependent on foreign factories and painfully unable to ramp up domestic production of face masks, test kits, ventilators and even the thermometers and over-the-counter fever-reducing medicines to soothe the sick.

France had long identified masks as indispensable in a pandemic, yet the government had mostly stopped stockpiling them during the past decade, mainly for budgetary reasons. Domestic production collapsed at the same time the country’s pharmaceutical industry was also moving overseas.

France had decided “that it was no longer necessary to keep massive stocks in the country, considering that production plants were able to be operational very quickly, especially in China,” the health minister, Olivier Véran, said in Parliament in March.

But the scope and speed of the coronavirus defied that logic. Still reeling from its own outbreak, China, the world’s leading maker of masks, was overwhelmed with orders. India, a top exporter of medication, temporarily banned exports for fear of shortages.

To many critics, France’s defenselessness in face of the virus was the logical conclusion of the hollowing out of France’s manufacturing base — a transformation that has deepened inequality and fueled violent protests, like the Yellow Vest movement.

In the early 2000s, Germany had a slight edge over France in manufacturing and exporting PCR test kits — the most widely used today to detect the virus — and oxygen therapy equipment, according to United Nations data. But by 2018, Germany had a $1.4 billion trade surplus for PCR test kits, whereas France had a deficit of $89 million.

While Germany was able to mobilize its industry quickly to fight the pandemic, France was paralyzed. It couldn’t carry out large-scale testing because it lacked cotton swabs and reagents, low-value but crucial elements that had been outsourced to Asia.

“France has deindustrialized too much since the 2000s; it’s paying for it today,” said Philippe Aghion, an economist who teaches at Harvard and Collège de France.

In a still unpublished study, Mr. Aghion and economists at the Free University of Brussels found that over all, countries with the capacity to manufacture test kits and related instruments, like Germany and Austria, had so far suffered fewer deaths during the pandemic.

In France, shortages have affected even basic goods. Drugstores ran out of thermometers. Supplies of paracetamol — a common pain reliever sold as Tylenol in the United States — became so dangerously low that the authorities restricted its sale.

In the aftermath of the SARS pandemic in Asia in 2003, French officials analyzed the risks in a series of reports and built up a national stockpile of masks and other protective equipment manufactured by domestic suppliers — in keeping with a Gaullist tradition of maintaining a strong domestic defense industry that also exports Rafale fighter jets, submarines, minesweepers and frigates to the world.

In 2006, a government pandemic plan recommended a series of measures, including creating stockpiles of masks. A year earlier, France’s Health Ministry signed a five-year contract to buy 180 million masks a year that Bacou-Dalloz, then the biggest mask maker in France, would produce at a factory in Plaintel, about 280 miles from Paris.

Details from the contract, a copy of which was obtained by The New York Times, reveal the government’s strategic thinking at the time. Securing a domestic supplier would help France avoid being “exclusively dependent on importations that would be disrupted in the context of a pandemic.”

The government order “monopolized the Plaintel factory’s entire production capacity,” said Jean-Jacques Fuan, a former director of the plant.

By 2008, the government issued a white paper that for the first time cited pandemics as a potential national threat, ranking it fourth behind terrorism, cyberwarfare and a ballistic missile attack.

“In the next 15 years, the arrival of a pandemic is possible,” the paper warned. It could be highly contagious and lethal, it said, and could come and go in waves for weeks or months.

But soon afterward, many politicians began criticizing the policy of stockpiling masks and medication as wasteful. About 383 million euros spent in 2009 on acquiring 44 million vaccinations against the H1N1 flu caused a political scandal after less than 9 percent of French people were vaccinated.

In 2013, the General Secretariat for Defense and National Security issued new pandemic directives emphasizing “overall savings” and reducing the importance of maintaining a stockpile. Surgical masks would be stocked, but not the more sophisticated FFP2 masks that, the report noted, cost 10 times as much.

The directives also transferred the responsibility — and costs — for securing and stockpiling masks to public and private employers. This contributed to the severe shortages that France has suffered in recent months, as government officials became less engaged on the issue.

But the new policy also undermined France’s capacity to produce masks. Employers, now charged with procuring masks, naturally sought cheaper suppliers abroad.

And to save costs, the government placed large orders that only Chinese factories were able to satisfy, said Francis Delattre, a former senator whose 2015 report warned of the depletion of masks.

“Small French factories were losing orders,” Mr. Delattre said. “It was very dangerous to entrust only one or two Chinese conglomerates with the health protection of the country.”
And without its single government customer, the factory in Plaintel, which had once been running 24 hours a day, saw its business shrivel and eventually closed in 2018, Mr. Fuan said.

As expired masks were disposed of, France’s national stockpile shrank from 1.7 billion in 2009 to 150 million in March.

 

[berbatrick]

I thought this was a really good article that brought to life some of the practical struggles a lot of major governments faced that seemed so inexplicable at the time. Why weren't France (and co.) carrying out mass testing even at the peak of the first wave? Not enough fecking cotton buds! (among other things)

in your thread about china, this is the underlying stuff. i think i posted the same thing there, you can have all the coercion and lack of rights that china has but it isn't nearly enough without the manpower and insutrial capcity and the ability to quickly commandeer them.

 

[Wibble]

23 minutes long but well worth the watch - very informative about why various measures help stop the spread of infection in and epidemic or pandemic.

 

[Wibble]

23 minutes long but well worth the watch - very informative about why various measures help stop the spread of infection in and epidemic or pandemic.

 

[Brwned]

in your thread about china, this is the underlying stuff. i think i posted the same thing there, you can have all the coercion and lack of rights that china has but it isn't nearly enough without the manpower and insutrial capcity and the ability to quickly commandeer them.

Yeah no doubt it's a huge part of their success, and not one that's replicable without that industrial muscle. You would expect some Western nations to address the shortages going forward but it still won't allow them to respond as aggressively.

I wonder why Germany didn't follow the paths of so many of its neighbours in terms of some of these basic pandemic preparedness things? Obviously they have a stronger industrial base in general, but they presumably made a conscious decision to still have the medical industrial capacity for these scenarios. I think someone from Germany in this thread mentioned that the country realistically has had far too many ICU beds based on historic requirements over the last two decades, and there was some political discussion about how those funds could be used elsewhere instead. Why did those critics lose the political argument in Germany but win it in France (and presumably the UK, Spain, Italy and elsewhere)?

 

[Wibble]

oh yeah, dont wanna miss out on that 86th year, wooowee, it's gonna be a crazy one.

I know you are joking but it is this kind of ageist thinking that allows governments to treat old people as expendable.

 

[Sparky_Hughes]

Well I’m taking where I live in Cheltenham as an example, ours are dropping, Gloucester is stable and cases are so low in both itd be mad for us to be shut down and need support money that could be used to better effect elsewhere

I'm in herefordshire and it really low here too

 

[Penna]

I know you are joking but it is this kind of ageist thinking that allows governments to treat old people as expendable.

Agree. I have friends in their 80s who have great lives - they have lots of friends, they go on holiday several times a year, they volunteer, they just generally enjoy their time. They're valuable members of society who are loved.

 

[Wibble]

Agree. I have friends in their 80s who have great lives - they have lots of friends, they go on holiday several times a year, they volunteer, they just generally enjoy their time. They're valuable members of society who are loved.

And who paid the tax that funded our schools, hospitals and road.

 

[SiRed]

23 minutes long but well worth the watch - very informative about why various measures help stop the spread of infection in and epidemic or pandemic.

Great educational video Wibble for someone like me, who doesnt quite grasp why the measures are being put in place. Excellent

 

[redshaw]

I don't understand how the government can think 22 million is ok for Greater Manchester and offer 42-44 million to Liverpool and Lancashire. Even 44 million is too little.

Shouldn't Andy be saying this out loud if true though? He's getting some criticism for delaying and risking lives but if the figure is true then I would say in the press very clearly the government is risking lives with such a derisory offer compared to our neigbours.

With cases dropping here in Gtr Man, said to be the lowest region today, maybe we can stay Tier 2 but really it's about the hospitals.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

This is so on the money.

When deciding whom to listen to in the covid-19 era, we should respect those who respect uncertainty, and listen in particular to those who acknowledge conflicting evidence on even their most strongly held views. Commentators who are utterly consistent, and see whatever new data or situation emerge through the lens of their pre-existing views—be it “Let it rip” or “Zero covid now”—would fail this test.

 

[Madthinker]

Interesting (perhaps), cyclist Fernando Gaviria has tested positive for a second time. The first time was back in March. This time he's asymptomatic (although notably has been in poor form).

I had assumed that reinfections were edge cases that occurred in the infirm.

 

[Wibble]

Nature article on the main phase 3 trials to date

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02926-w

 

[Wibble]

Nature article on the 2 main phase 3 trials

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02926-w

 

[Brwned]

,

This is so on the money.

Yeah, it's always somewhat reassuring to hear people like Fauci say 'to be honest, I really don't know where we're going (I just know I'd rather we were in a better position by now)' or similar. Navigating through uncertainty with an open mind is a pretty important part of science so it is a bit odd that you can find so many relevant academic experts seem to shrug that off when they're in the public eye.

 

[Ekkie Thump]

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Has any reason been offered as to why Greater Manchester merits 1/4 of the extra support offered Liverpool and Lancashire?

 

[Maagge]

This is so on the money.

It's also pretty much the scientific method in action. However, the general public won't like situations that aren't clear cut.

 

[Port Vale Devil]

Great article here on the origins of COVID-19 and whether China covered it up. Not sure if it has been posted before but we’ll worth a read.

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https://www.ft.com/content/82574e3d-1633-48ad-8afb-71ebb3fe3dee

 

[Pogue Mahone]

,

Yeah, it's always somewhat reassuring to hear people like Fauci say 'to be honest, I really don't know where we're going (I just know I'd rather we were in a better position by now)' or similar. Navigating through uncertainty with an open mind is a pretty important part of science so it is a bit odd that you can find so many relevant academic experts seem to shrug that off when they're in the public eye.

That’s been one of the biggest eye-openers for me. I’ve always been inclined to defer to anyone who is more qualified than me on any given topic. This pandemic has revealed the way that many academics behave like zealots. Picking and choosing pieces of data to support their underlying agenda. I think it was @Arruda who called this behaviour out very early on in the pandemic and he’s been proved right.It’s all very unedifying and depressing.

You can see why conspiracy theories are so appealing. It must be comforting to convince yourself this is all being carefully planned by people who know exactly what they’re doing. Reminds me of the way becoming an adult involves an uncomfortable realisation that everyone is flawed and muddling their way through life. Even authority figures. Conspiracy gonks biggest failing is arguably immaturity.

 

[calodo2003]

Great article here on the origins of COVID-19 and whether China covered it up. Not sure if it has been posted before but we’ll worth a read.

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https://www.ft.com/content/82574e3d-1633-48ad-8afb-71ebb3fe3dee

The sad thing is that nutters will use articles like this to absolve their leaders from the terrible decisions that were made after the virus was detected in their countries.

Interesting read, though. Thanks for it.

 

[Buster15]

Well I’m taking where I live in Cheltenham as an example, ours are dropping, Gloucester is stable and cases are so low in both itd be mad for us to be shut down and need support money that could be used to better effect elsewhere

Understood.
Which of the current measures is responsible for the low level of cases in the Cheltenham and Gloucester area?

 

[McGrathsipan]

Honestly I think they should be out spraying the germ infested bastards in the street with antibacterial spray

spray the grey tracksuit bottomed wearing cnuts as well

 

[Pexbo]

This is so on the money.

Complete bottle job opting not to tag @Regulus Arcturus Black and @Wibble there Pogue

 

[Mb194dc]

This is so on the money.

Very good BMJ article. All debates in the current era seem to degenerate in the way this article describes, with everyone just viewing all evidence through the lense of whatever conclusion they have already made. Think the modern broadcast, press and especially social media have caused this to happen. It's a 21st century phenomena.

 

[Wibble]

Complete bottle job opting not to tag @Regulus Arcturus Black and @Wibble there Pogue

If I were an expert speaking in public as an authority I would use the same cautious approach and wording I'd have used when I was a scientist. I'm not so I have the freedom to say where I think we are going based on my understanding of the evidence to a few football fans on the Caf.

 

[stepic]

I know you are joking but it is this kind of ageist thinking that allows governments to treat old people as expendable.

Agree. I have friends in their 80s who have great lives - they have lots of friends, they go on holiday several times a year, they volunteer, they just generally enjoy their time. They're valuable members of society who are loved.

my post was a comment on how one chooses to live ones life, which is the backdrop of the conversation, not in any way a commentary on treating old people as expendable. if it's a choice between having 85 years of living a free life or 86 where your movement and choices are restricted thoughout, then it's not ageism to suggest the former would be a more preferable life to lead for most. this is the only life we have and our ability to live it as best as we can is more important than the sheer length of it, just for length's sake.

 

[Wibble]

my post was a comment on how one chooses to live ones life, which is the backdrop of the conversation, not in any way a commentary on treating old people as expendable. if it's a choice between having 85 years of living a free life or 86 where your movement and choices are restricted thoughout, then it's not ageism to suggest the former would be a more preferable life to lead for most. this is the only life we have and our ability to live it as best as we can is more important than the sheer length of it, just for length's sake.

I'm not making a big deal out of it but unconsciously you were saying the last year or few years of life aren't worth much.

I'd always opt for a longer life, especially if the choice was the current inconvenience (for me) that almost certainly will be over or at least hugely improved in the next year or two.

Which of course is irrelevant anyway as we don't get to individually choose.

 

[Pexbo]

If I were an expert speaking in public as an authority I would use the same cautious approach and wording I'd have used when I was a scientist. I'm not so I have the freedom to say where I think we are going based on my understanding of the evidence to a few football fans on the Caf.

I know mate I’m only kidding, I’m far closer to your opinions than the Swedish one but think it’s fair to say you both represent the extremes of the debate.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

The sad thing is that nutters will use articles like this to absolve their leaders from the terrible decisions that were made after the virus was detected in their countries.

Interesting read, though. Thanks for it.

Hopefully they keep reading all the way to the end of the article.

Dr Fisher’s view was that “another couple of weeks” of advance notice about the pandemic would not have helped many countries. He pointed out that despite it being confirmed that the virus could be transmitted from person to person on January 20, “it’s not like [everyone] jumped up and sprang into action”. “Most of Asia really respected this, had systems ready to go, and did a lot of work in January and February for the day that was coming when they were going to get smashed,” said Dr Fisher. “Unfortunately, most of the rest of the world needed to get smashed to have that realisation. As we said in our February [WHO China delegation] report, this virus can have devastating health, social and economic effects but the world is not ready, in capacity or in mindset, to deal with it.” Prof Wang added that for all of the Chinese system’s shortcomings in the earliest days and weeks of the outbreak, the rest of the world should have been on high alert. As soon as human-to-human transmission was confirmed and Wuhan went into quarantine a few days later, countries could have prepared themselves for its arrival as effectively as Taiwan and South Korea did, among others. Most did not. In particular the Trump administration’s response will go down as one of the worst national security failures in the history of the US republic, with the virus breaching even the White House and infecting the president himself. As Prof Wang said: “For other countries not to have taken [the virus] seriously, there’s just no excuse.”

 

[Wibble]

I know mate I’m only kidding, I’m far closer to your opinions than the Swedish one but think it’s fair to say you both represent the extremes of the debate.

I wasn't taking any offense at all (I was actually picturing that Mourinho gif). Things should be discussed vigorously as you usually learn more from diverse opinions than when everyone agrees with each other.

 

[Tibs]

15 minutes to the crunch