Covid protests in China

[iKnowNothing]

Xi just got supreme power - he is not going anywhere.

There were similar arguments made when the HK protests were raging, or when the world cared about the Uighurs for a brief second.

True.. I completely forgot about these things. I now wonder what happened to the protests in HK and I wonder why the talk about Uyghurs stopped all of a sudden!

I don’t understand why the media doesn’t follow up on certain stories that they covered in the recent past. Just a recap and a quick update every once in a while, so that common folks like us can know what’s going on.

 

[pacifictheme]

No one pointing out the irony of calling locals, who protest against Covid measures, straight up idiots and the Chinese people that do it brave freedom fighters?
I'm aware that both descriptions seem relatively accurate, but still..

My understanding is that the protests are not really about covid but wider societal issues and are being misreported.

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

True.. I completely forgot about these things. I now wonder what happened to the protests in HK and I wonder why the talk about Uyghurs stopped all of a sudden!

COVID happened. Regardless of how the pandemic started, it provided the perfect excuse for the CCP to use more repression against critics and to control the narrative for a while. That was the case until a cumulative effect of zero COVID policy, lockdowns, slow economic growth, high unemployment rate among the 16-24 and other deep societal issues pushes people's patience towards breaking point. What happened in Urumqi may have been that breaking point.

 

[Mb194dc]

Xi just got supreme power - he is not going anywhere.

There were similar arguments made when the HK protests were raging, or when the world cared about the Uighurs for a brief second.

You could say it's pattern of rising dissent. Obviously the housing market problems and Covid Zero are much more serious.

If the CCP are going to be ousted, I doubt people outside of China will know much until its already happening.

 

[TwoSheds]

Xi just got supreme power - he is not going anywhere.

There were similar arguments made when the HK protests were raging, or when the world cared about the Uighurs for a brief second.

90% chance you're right but those situations are not really comparable. The surveillance state in China is tolerated on the understanding that big brother has their best interests at heart. It's easy to convince people of that when the economy keeps growing, the standards of living keep getting better, and when you actually are keeping them safe. China was always going to come to a difficult point on the economy due to the massive inequality that's been building for years and high youth unemployment rate, but on top of that, what was seen as a good thing - the zero COVID policy that protected them at the beginning of the pandemic - is now seen as a massive imposition and miscalculation.

Worse than that, it's almost hopeless as there doesn't seem to be an end in sight. If Xi comes to his senses and outlines an "exit strategy" then he will be fine, but if he continues to be stubborn there will be real trouble ahead I think.

 

[sun_tzu]

90% chance you're right but those situations are not really comparable. The surveillance state in China is tolerated on the understanding that big brother has their best interests at heart. It's easy to convince people of that when the economy keeps growing, the standards of living keep getting better, and when you actually are keeping them safe. China was always going to come to a difficult point on the economy due to the massive inequality that's been building for years and high youth unemployment rate, but on top of that, what was seen as a good thing - the zero COVID policy that protected them at the beginning of the pandemic - is now seen as a massive imposition and miscalculation.

Worse than that, it's almost hopeless as there doesn't seem to be an end in sight. If Xi comes to his senses and outlines an "exit strategy" then he will be fine, but if he continues to be stubborn there will be real trouble ahead I think.

Pragmatism will win out I suspect ... blame local government implementation of the vaccine roll out and zero covid policy policing and chuck a few local politicians under the bus.

Select a few cities with high vaccination rates - do a booster campaign and say when certain metrics are met (say 95% of over 80s and 85% of the general population vacinated) they will lift restrictions

roll that out to a few cities and Im pretty sure you will see vaccination take up massively in other cities before unlocking them as well

Xi takes the credit and the criteria for putting a death down as covid is raised so high you virtually ensure super low death figures.

Seems far more likely than Xi being ousted

 

[TwoSheds]

Pragmatism will win out I suspect ... blame local government implementation of the vaccine roll out and zero covid policy policing and chuck a few local politicians under the bus.

Select a few cities with high vaccination rates - do a booster campaign and say when certain metrics are met (say 95% of over 80s and 85% of the general population vacinated) they will lift restrictions

roll that out to a few cities and Im pretty sure you will see vaccination take up massively in other cities before unlocking them as well

Xi takes the credit and the criteria for putting a death down as covid is raised so high you virtually ensure super low death figures.

Seems far more likely than Xi being ousted

Yep, I would tend to agree. On the other hand, power corrupts and the stupid policies tend to proliferate the longer somebody has had it, so it's not impossible that this really will come to a head. Perhaps 90% was an underestimate in my previous post though, I'll go with 95%.

 

[VorZakone]

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[Vidic_In_Moscow]

Makes you feel so powerless watching what’s going on in China and Iran in particular right now, just pray that the people come out on top.

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

Good thread here.

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[VorZakone]

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[RedDevilQuebecois]

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Zhao.exe has stopped functioning.

 

[jojojo]

Looks like the Chinese government are finally starting to change the message.

Apparently they're moving the advertising message in the cities to variations of, "the person most responsible for safeguarding your health is you". There's also a lot more "encouragement" underway for the over 80s to get vaccinated with regional and rural authorities being told it's their responsibility to educate and advise.

It's true that the Chinese vaccines aren't as effective as the mRNA and adenovirus ones but a full course of them still improves your protection from serious illness or death.

Or as one of the state sponsored media frames it here - the odds these days for someone catching it for the first time who has been fully vaccinated aren't bad.

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[RedDevilQuebecois]

Still baffled that they took this long to understand the memo. That process should have been done a while ago.

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

Coincidence or not, CNN released this video that includes old footage of the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests only a few hours ago.


They shall grow not old, as we that are left grow old...

 

[Semper Fudge]

Did it work?

China abandons key parts of zero-Covid strategy after protests

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-63855508

 

[jojojo]

Did it work?


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-63855508

Do you mean the zero covid strategy or the easing of restrictions?

The tight controls only made any sense in the context of buying time to come up with better solutions - vaccines, treatments, testing etc. China bought time, at very high cost in economic and social terms.

In the end they were asking the young and the working generation to save the lives of the old, despite many of the old choosing not to take the basic step of protecting themselves through vaccination.

In China the over 80s are the least vaccinated group. In most of the world that group (the most at risk of death and serious illness) are amongst the most vaccinated - in some countries (like the UK, NZ, Singapore) they are almost all vaccinated.

For Singapore and NZ, strict controls were gradually eased as vaccination levels climbed, they've kept the deaths to a minimum and they've not allowed their health services to collapse under the sudden weight of new cases.

Hong Kong showed how fast things can go wrong. Seeing it happen probably has helped push up vaccination rates in China, but the rates still aren't great, and the vaccines aren't the best. China will see a lot of unnecessary deaths. They shouldn't see the kind of death rates that hit countries like the UK (pre vaccine) but they're unlikely to perform as well as Singapore say.

A lot of time wasted, a lot of people who've gone through miserable experiences, a range of economic damage done and a less than ideal set of health outcomes.

A not too technical article on what's likely to happen next:

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[Semper Fudge]

Do you mean the zero covid strategy or the easing of restrictions?

I meant the protests in terms of inciting some change in policy.

Interesting read!

 

[jojojo]

I meant the protests in terms of inciting some change in policy.

Interesting read!

I think the protests were the final nail. It ties back into general Chinese politics - while prosperity was rising in China, political protests were easy to suppress. The economy isn't growing now, and the covid controls were making it worse, people finally reacted.

I think the leadership always knew the controls would have to go, it was only the timing that had to be decided. If I was feeling cynical I'd even say that this has given them the chance to blame the inevitable deaths on the protestors pushing for change before the older population were ready.

 

[jojojo]

Yet another graph on the risks in China and why they've still got a problem to solve.

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Based on vaccines similar to the ones in use in China - 3 doses should give significant protection from death and serious illness. Probably similar to the protection given by two doses of a mRNA or adenovirus vaccine.

If that's true then China has a long way to go to get the protection level of the elderly population up before the inevitable wave of cases hits. If they are now pushing on vaccine uptake in the elderly (as they seem to be) then they may still have enough time to do it, but they've made it really hard.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Yet another graph on the risks in China and why they've still got a problem to solve.

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Based on vaccines similar to the ones in use in China - 3 doses should give significant protection from death and serious illness. Probably similar to the protection given by two doses of a mRNA or adenovirus vaccine.

If that's true then China has a long way to go to get the protection level of the elderly population up before the inevitable wave of cases hits. If they are now pushing on vaccine uptake in the elderly (as they seem to be) then they may still have enough time to do it, but they've made it really hard.

It’s funny the way the antivax idiots were banging on about how the government was inevitably going to force everyone to get vaccinated. Yet a legitimately authoritarian state, that welded people inside buildings during lockdown, didn’t even come close to achieving that sort of vaccine uptake.

 

[bringbackbebe]

Most democratic nations faced these sorts of protests early during the lockdown & eventually learned to live with COVID - so much so that it doesn't even feature in daily conversations where I live. China's zero COVID strategy worked brilliantly till a few months back, but also meant lesser herd immunity and prolonged economic suffering when all other countries have moved on. It'll eventually be a case that their mortality statistic will catch up to rest of the world & they'll learn to live with it as well. Just a delayed onset, not helped by officials not wanting to be the first to look bad on paper.